Race to London'16

[Kieran]

I think Cilic is quite good in indoors and he may stand some chance, especially if he wins Paris. Note that Paris is the Masters that is often won by "outsiders".

So Rafa has a chance! :snicker

 

[Front242]

I look forward to seeing Monfils at the YEC. He has finally stopped pushing the ball, the first time in his career that he has done that for more than a match at a time. Something has clicked for him. Maybe he can win a big title before retiring. I hope so.

He pushes the ball against all the top players though. He's played some embarrassingly pathetic matches lately, especially the pile of crap against Novak, which is a prime example.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

I look forward to seeing Monfils at the YEC. He has finally stopped pushing the ball, the first time in his career that he has done that for more than a match at a time. Something has clicked for him. Maybe he can win a big title before retiring. I hope so.

He pushes the ball against all the top players though. He's played some embarrassingly pathetic matches lately, especially the pile of crap against Novak, which is a prime example.

I had already indicated that I would not prefer to see "tankers" at WTF. Monfils certainly fits into that category. Further, even when not tanking, he rarely puts up a good performance against big players. So, I definitely don't want to see him at London. Unfortunately, it looks like he will make it.

 

[10isfan]

But Monfils has turned a corner which is why he made it to London. He still needs to get fitter because three setters are tough for him.

 

[El Dude]

OK, so Andy has a path to #1. It is narrow, but possible. He's 915 points behind Novak. What might that path look like?

First of all, neither seems to be playing an ATP 250 next week. Presumably both will play in one of the two ATP 500s in the following week, the Paris Masters, and the World Tour Finals - a total of 3000 possible title points (or 2700 if not undefeated at the WTF). Sounds like a lot, but not a lot to make up 915 points.

Essentially Andy has to do equal or better than Novak at every tournament, and then win the WTF. Here are the point ranges at each tournament:

ATP 500: 500, 300, 180, 90, 45, 20, 5
Masters: 1000, 600, 360, 180, 90, 45, 25/10
WTF: 200 each RR win, +400 for final, +500 for title - so: 1500/1200 for win, 1000/800 for final, 600/400 for semifinalist, 200/0 for RR.

To make the year-end #1 a realistic proposition, Andy needs to win the WTF. Let's say he wins but with one defeat, and Novak is the finalist. That means Andy gets 1200 points to Novak's 800 or 1000, so Andy will get +200 to +400. That means he needs to win one or both of the ATP 500 and Paris, or at least do significantly better than Novak. If he wins WTF undefeated, and Novak loses once in the RR but still makes the final, he is +700 over Novak, so needs a slimmer margin in the earlier tournaments.

Either way, each tournament counts - and there's a nice leadup, with an ATP 500, a Masters, than the WTF. If Novak wins an ATP 500, it isn't utter disaster for Andy (unless he goes out really early) but is a big setback. If Novak wins Paris, it is over. So again, the key for Andy is to do equal or better at both, and better at at least one, and then win the WTF.

 

[Kieran]

That's actually not impossible to imagine, Dude, though regardless of who ends up number one, Novak is clearly the best player this year...

 

[rafanoy1992]

OK, so Andy has a path to #1. It is narrow, but possible. He's 915 points behind Novak. What might that path look like?

First of all, neither seems to be playing an ATP 250 next week. Presumably both will play in one of the two ATP 500s in the following week, the Paris Masters, and the World Tour Finals - a total of 3000 possible title points (or 2700 if not undefeated at the WTF). Sounds like a lot, but not a lot to make up 915 points.

Essentially Andy has to do equal or better than Novak at every tournament, and then win the WTF. Here are the point ranges at each tournament:

ATP 500: 500, 300, 180, 90, 45, 20, 5
Masters: 1000, 600, 360, 180, 90, 45, 25/10
WTF: 200 each RR win, +400 for final, +500 for title - so: 1500/1200 for win, 1000/800 for final, 600/400 for semifinalist, 200/0 for RR.

To make the year-end #1 a realistic proposition, Andy needs to win the WTF. Let's say he wins but with one defeat, and Novak is the finalist. That means Andy gets 1200 points to Novak's 800 or 1000, so Andy will get +200 to +400. That means he needs to win one or both of the ATP 500 and Paris, or at least do significantly better than Novak. If he wins WTF undefeated, and Novak loses once in the RR but still makes the final, he is +700 over Novak, so needs a slimmer margin in the earlier tournaments.

Either way, each tournament counts - and there's a nice leadup, with an ATP 500, a Masters, than the WTF. If Novak wins an ATP 500, it isn't utter disaster for Andy (unless he goes out really early) but is a big setback. If Novak wins Paris, it is over. So again, the key for Andy is to do equal or better at both, and better at at least one, and then win the WTF.

Actually, it looks like Djokovic next tournament will be the Paris Masters. So, Andy Murray can gain 500 points over Djokovic, if he wins Viena in a couple of weeks. You are right though that he needs to win the WTF in order to get the #1 ranking from Djokovic

 

[Fiero425]

It's come down to the YEC before; who takes it can own #1 ranking during the "dead period" until Aussie Open!

 

[GameSetAndMath]

OK, so Andy has a path to #1. It is narrow, but possible. He's 915 points behind Novak. What might that path look like?

First of all, neither seems to be playing an ATP 250 next week. Presumably both will play in one of the two ATP 500s in the following week, the Paris Masters, and the World Tour Finals - a total of 3000 possible title points (or 2700 if not undefeated at the WTF). Sounds like a lot, but not a lot to make up 915 points.

Essentially Andy has to do equal or better than Novak at every tournament, and then win the WTF. Here are the point ranges at each tournament:

ATP 500: 500, 300, 180, 90, 45, 20, 5
Masters: 1000, 600, 360, 180, 90, 45, 25/10
WTF: 200 each RR win, +400 for final, +500 for title - so: 1500/1200 for win, 1000/800 for final, 600/400 for semifinalist, 200/0 for RR.

To make the year-end #1 a realistic proposition, Andy needs to win the WTF. Let's say he wins but with one defeat, and Novak is the finalist. That means Andy gets 1200 points to Novak's 800 or 1000, so Andy will get +200 to +400. That means he needs to win one or both of the ATP 500 and Paris, or at least do significantly better than Novak. If he wins WTF undefeated, and Novak loses once in the RR but still makes the final, he is +700 over Novak, so needs a slimmer margin in the earlier tournaments.

Either way, each tournament counts - and there's a nice leadup, with an ATP 500, a Masters, than the WTF. If Novak wins an ATP 500, it isn't utter disaster for Andy (unless he goes out really early) but is a big setback. If Novak wins Paris, it is over. So again, the key for Andy is to do equal or better at both, and better at at least one, and then win the WTF.

There is a serious error in the analysis here. Andy has 275 points in store due to his Davis Cup results of last year. They will drop off from his profile at the end of November. So, Novak's real lead over Andy is not 915 and is actually 1190. Myself and another poster (whose name I don't recall) have discussed it before. Actually, it is that poster who pointed this out.

Yes, we know the difference between race rankings and regular rankings. Folks should realize that the ONLY purpose of ATP race rankings is to determine which 8 players get to play in the WTF. Right after the WTF is over, the race points for everyone is set to zero and start accruing from then until the beginning of next WTF. Therfore, the DC final points that Andy got from last year counts in his race, but that won't help in the YE #1 business. YE #1 is simply who is number 1 in the regular rankings at the end of the year.

Andy may still make it. But, it is lot more doubtful due to this "mysterious 275 points".

 

[Fiero425]

OK, so Andy has a path to #1. It is narrow, but possible. He's 915 points behind Novak. What might that path look like?

First of all, neither seems to be playing an ATP 250 next week. Presumably both will play in one of the two ATP 500s in the following week, the Paris Masters, and the World Tour Finals - a total of 3000 possible title points (or 2700 if not undefeated at the WTF). Sounds like a lot, but not a lot to make up 915 points.

Essentially Andy has to do equal or better than Novak at every tournament, and then win the WTF. Here are the point ranges at each tournament:

ATP 500: 500, 300, 180, 90, 45, 20, 5
Masters: 1000, 600, 360, 180, 90, 45, 25/10
WTF: 200 each RR win, +400 for final, +500 for title - so: 1500/1200 for win, 1000/800 for final, 600/400 for semifinalist, 200/0 for RR.

To make the year-end #1 a realistic proposition, Andy needs to win the WTF. Let's say he wins but with one defeat, and Novak is the finalist. That means Andy gets 1200 points to Novak's 800 or 1000, so Andy will get +200 to +400. That means he needs to win one or both of the ATP 500 and Paris, or at least do significantly better than Novak. If he wins WTF undefeated, and Novak loses once in the RR but still makes the final, he is +700 over Novak, so needs a slimmer margin in the earlier tournaments.

Either way, each tournament counts - and there's a nice leadup, with an ATP 500, a Masters, than the WTF. If Novak wins an ATP 500, it isn't utter disaster for Andy (unless he goes out really early) but is a big setback. If Novak wins Paris, it is over. So again, the key for Andy is to do equal or better at both, and better at at least one, and then win the WTF.

There is a serious error in the analysis here. Andy has 275 points in store due to his Davis Cup results of last year. They will drop off from his profile at the end of November. So, Novak's real lead over Andy is not 915 and is actually 1190. Myself and another poster (whose name I don't recall) have discussed it before. Actually, it is that poster who pointed this out.

Yes, we know the difference between race rankings and regular rankings. Folks should realize that the ONLY purpose of ATP race rankings is to determine which 8 players get to play in the WTF. Right after the WTF is over, the race points for everyone is set to zero and start accruing from then until the beginning of next WTF. Therfore, the DC final points that Andy got from last year counts in his race, but that won't help in the YE #1 business. YE #1 is simply who is number 1 in the regular rankings at the end of the year.

Andy may still make it. But, it is lot more doubtful due to this "mysterious 275 points".

Maybe making all 4 finals made all the difference! I think it's ridiculous he's within sniffing distance of Nole's #1 ranking since he has 2 majors and 4 Masters; seen less take it for the season! Obviously that's what they're trying to make happen; taking #1 ranking with less success due to 1 player having so many points to defend! :nono :angel: :cover

 

[rafanoy1992]

While I do not think Murray will surpass Djokovic in the rankings this year, I do think he has a great chance of surpassing him early next year.

From this point on until the Miami Open, here are the points they are defending:

Djokovic:
Paris Masters - 1,000
World Tour Finals - 1,300
Doha - 250
Australian Open - 2,000
Dubai - 90
Indian Wells - 1,000
Miami - 1,000
Total points: 6,640

Murray:
Paris Masters: 600
World Tour Finals: 200
Davis Cup: -275 points (he will lose this points)
Australian Open: 1,200
Indian Wells: 45
Miami: 45
Total points: 2,090

Clearly, Murray has a lot of opportunities to gain points over Djokovic in the next couple of months. In addition, if he wins Vienna, he could gain 500 points over Djokovic. The two most important tournaments here though are the World Tour Finals and Australian Open. He HAS to win either one of those tournaments if he truly wants to surpass Djokovic in the rankings. If he can not do it, then he will never become number 1 in the world.

 

[sid]

If Ivan Lendl has enough time to help Andy get the number 1 in the world,I could see this? If on the other hand Lendl can only give a small length of time for Andy,hmmmmmmmm on this.

 

[Rational National]

OK, so Andy has a path to #1. It is narrow, but possible. He's 915 points behind Novak. What might that path look like?

First of all, neither seems to be playing an ATP 250 next week. Presumably both will play in one of the two ATP 500s in the following week, the Paris Masters, and the World Tour Finals - a total of 3000 possible title points (or 2700 if not undefeated at the WTF). Sounds like a lot, but not a lot to make up 915 points.

Essentially Andy has to do equal or better than Novak at every tournament, and then win the WTF. Here are the point ranges at each tournament:

ATP 500: 500, 300, 180, 90, 45, 20, 5
Masters: 1000, 600, 360, 180, 90, 45, 25/10
WTF: 200 each RR win, +400 for final, +500 for title - so: 1500/1200 for win, 1000/800 for final, 600/400 for semifinalist, 200/0 for RR.

To make the year-end #1 a realistic proposition, Andy needs to win the WTF. Let's say he wins but with one defeat, and Novak is the finalist. That means Andy gets 1200 points to Novak's 800 or 1000, so Andy will get +200 to +400. That means he needs to win one or both of the ATP 500 and Paris, or at least do significantly better than Novak. If he wins WTF undefeated, and Novak loses once in the RR but still makes the final, he is +700 over Novak, so needs a slimmer margin in the earlier tournaments.

Either way, each tournament counts - and there's a nice leadup, with an ATP 500, a Masters, than the WTF. If Novak wins an ATP 500, it isn't utter disaster for Andy (unless he goes out really early) but is a big setback. If Novak wins Paris, it is over. So again, the key for Andy is to do equal or better at both, and better at at least one, and then win the WTF.

There is a serious error in the analysis here. Andy has 275 points in store due to his Davis Cup results of last year. They will drop off from his profile at the end of November. So, Novak's real lead over Andy is not 915 and is actually 1190. Myself and another poster (whose name I don't recall) have discussed it before. Actually, it is that poster who pointed this out.

Yes, we know the difference between race rankings and regular rankings. Folks should realize that the ONLY purpose of ATP race rankings is to determine which 8 players get to play in the WTF. Right after the WTF is over, the race points for everyone is set to zero and start accruing from then until the beginning of next WTF. Therfore, the DC final points that Andy got from last year counts in his race, but that won't help in the YE #1 business. YE #1 is simply who is number 1 in the regular rankings at the end of the year.

Andy may still make it. But, it is lot more doubtful due to this "mysterious 275 points".

Maybe making all 4 finals made all the difference! I think it's ridiculous he's within sniffing distance of Nole's #1 ranking since he has 2 majors and 4 Masters; seen less take it for the season! Obviously that's what they're trying to make happen; taking #1 ranking with less success due to 1 player having so many points to defend! :nono :angel: :cover

The difference being discussed is based on the YTD so its not relevant for points to defend, and there is a difference of 915, which seems about right because ND has been the best as you say, but regarding AM we are talking about someone who has won 5 ranking titles (1 major) , been in the final of 4 more (2 majors, 2 masters) lest not Olympic Champion.... In fact had the Olympic points of 2012 been replicated this year AM would be 745 points better off compared to ND.

If anything AM, being 915 points behind, is the one who 'could' have legitimate claims to being short changed by the system.

Anyway Y/e is probably locked for ND - he is a phenomenon indoors and Murray has historically struggled at the WTF, that said a good showing say win Vienna, win Paris and final WTF for the rest of the year followed by a 'par' start at the beginning of 2017 (Aus followed up in IW and Miami (with 1 win and 2 finals) ) would probably see Murray become no 1 at the point in time - though admittedly I haven't done the math.

Just seen Rafanoy do the math - It really does look like a par performance from both AM and ND would see AM get ahead even if ND were to win WTF and Oz

 

[delPoFearhand]

Rafa pulls out of the rest of the season. This is good news for Thiem, making his spot that much more secure. Also puts Berdych, Goffin, and Cilic in contention for the last spot now, with other mathematically possible but unlikely trailing candidates like RBA, Pouille, Tsonga, and a few more.

Berdych is in the lead, but we all know if he makes it there he'll fold a cheap card table. I kind of hope Goffin gets since he's worked so hard to get where he is with limited physical gifts. But Cilic would make the event more interesting, he would be a dangerous floater.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

The lead of Novak over Andy appears to be 915. But, it is actually 1190 (in view of the 275 points of Andy that will drop off) for the purposes of determining YE #1. I am tired of explaining this any further.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Rafa pulls out of the rest of the season. This is good news for Thiem, making his spot that much more secure. Also puts Berdych, Goffin, and Cilic in contention for the last spot now, with other mathematically possible but unlikely trailing candidates like RBA, Pouille, Tsonga, and a few more.

Berdych is in the lead, but we all know if he makes it there he'll fold a cheap card table. I kind of hope Goffin gets since he's worked so hard to get where he is with limited physical gifts. But Cilic would make the event more interesting, he would be a dangerous floater.

I am rooting for Cilic to make it. That will make the WTF interesting.

 

[rafanoy1992]

In my opinion, there three major tournaments that could determine whether or not Murray will get the Number 1 ranking or not:

1a. World Tour Finals
1b. Australian Open
3. Vienna

I would say the top 2 choices are equally important because Murray could get a lot of points in both of those tournaments and Djokovic could lose a lot of points in those tournaments. I do think Murray has to win at least either the World Tour Finals or Australian in order to grab the number 1 ranking from Djokovic. If he can't win either one of those two tournaments, then he would not be the number 1 player.

I added Vienna as an important tournament for Murray because he could easily gain 500 points if he continues to fine play. Besides in Paris Masters, I have a feeling he will try to conserve his energy for the World Tour Finals.

 

[Busted]

In my opinion, there three major tournaments that could determine whether or not Murray will get the Number 1 ranking or not:

1a. World Tour Finals
1b. Australian Open
3. Vienna

I would say the top 2 choices are equally important because Murray could get a lot of points in both of those tournaments and Djokovic could lose a lot of points in those tournaments. I do think Murray has to win at least either the World Tour Finals or Australian in order to grab the number 1 ranking from Djokovic. If he can't win either one of those two tournaments, then he would not be the number 1 player.

I added Vienna as an important tournament for Murray because he could easily gain 500 points if he continues to fine play. Besides in Paris Masters, I have a feeling he will try to conserve his energy for the World Tour Finals.

The problem here is - Murray has 1200 to defend at the Aussie himself so he would need for Djokovic to lose early in the tournament and then win the title himself. And in case you haven't noticed - the Australia Australian has pitched a 5-0 shutout against Murray. He's lost every final he's been in - 1 to Fed, 4 to Djokovic. In fact, Djokovic wouldn't even have 12 Slams if Murrray had been able to beat him in more than 2 of their 7 finals. That's another story though. Point is - Murray has had problems closing the deal at the Australian Open and in Slam finals in general. 3 for 11 is NOT a great result.

 

[El Dude]

If Novak doesn't lose the #1 this year, he'll probably lose it to Andy in the first half of the year next year, at least for a short time. Why? Well, Andy's 2nd half this year was better than Novak's; Novak has a ton of points to defend through Roland Garros. Consider:

Points won at big tournaments (Slams, Masters) through RG:
Novak: 7610
Andy: 4450

Points won at big tournaments after RG (so far, through Shanghai):
Novak: 2650
Andy: 3960

(Note: these are only Slam and Masters results, and are quick estimates based upon looking at Wikipedia...forgive me if they are wrong)

At some point it seems very possible, even likely, that Andy catches up in the first half of the year, although then might lose it again later on.

 

[rafanoy1992]

In my opinion, there three major tournaments that could determine whether or not Murray will get the Number 1 ranking or not:

1a. World Tour Finals
1b. Australian Open
3. Vienna

I would say the top 2 choices are equally important because Murray could get a lot of points in both of those tournaments and Djokovic could lose a lot of points in those tournaments. I do think Murray has to win at least either the World Tour Finals or Australian in order to grab the number 1 ranking from Djokovic. If he can't win either one of those two tournaments, then he would not be the number 1 player.

I added Vienna as an important tournament for Murray because he could easily gain 500 points if he continues to fine play. Besides in Paris Masters, I have a feeling he will try to conserve his energy for the World Tour Finals.

The problem here is - Murray has 1200 to defend at the Aussie himself so he would need for Djokovic to lose early in the tournament and then win the title himself. And in case you haven't noticed - the Australia Australian has pitched a 5-0 shutout against Murray. He's lost every final he's been in - 1 to Fed, 4 to Djokovic. In fact, Djokovic wouldn't even have 12 Slams if Murrray had been able to beat him in more than 2 of their 7 finals. That's another story though. Point is - Murray has had problems closing the deal at the Australian Open and in Slam finals in general. 3 for 11 is NOT a great result.

Well, if Murray wins the Australian Open then at the very least he will gain 1600 points if Djokovic loses in the finals. At that point, that gap might be enough for Murray to overtake Murray. While I do agree that Murray has a great problem in closing in the AO title, he did face two of the greatest players of all time in this era. So while he has a hard time winning the AO crown, his opponents had a lot to do it too.

We will see how it goes...that's why this next couple of months will determine whether or not tennis will see a new number 1 player in the world.