Race to London'16

[Fiero425]

Yeah, I don't know why Andy just gave that up. It could have livened up the tour.

The topsy-turvy 2016 continues. If Andy can manage to win Cincy (both Roger and Novak are not there and Rafa's not that good on fast courts), Andy can again give Novak a run for the YE #1 Prize (esp. if Novak's injury is on grey matter).

When did this happen or are you talking about other players in general; not just Andy? Most of his reign has had Nole doubling his closest rivals; gotten closer of late, but Andy has to sweep the rest of the season! That's a lot of playing; esp. since he's not done at the Olympics yet while Nole's resting, out of the singles and doubles! :nono :angel:

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Yeah, I don't know why Andy just gave that up. It could have livened up the tour.

The topsy-turvy 2016 continues. If Andy can manage to win Cincy (both Roger and Novak are not there and Rafa's not that good on fast courts), Andy can again give Novak a run for the YE #1 Prize (esp. if Novak's injury is on grey matter).

When did this happen or are you talking about other players in general; not just Andy? Most of his reign has had Nole doubling his closest rivals; gotten closer of late, but Andy has to sweep the rest of the season! That's a lot of playing; esp. since he's not done at the Olympics yet while Nole's resting, out of the singles and doubles! :nono :angel:

Which bubble are you in? After Wimbledon win, Andy was within an earshot of Novak. But, once Novak won Montreal (which Andy skipped) it looked improbable again. Now, if Andy can win Cincy (which Novak is skipping), Andy will again come close to Nole and at least make it a close fight and interesting even if he does not clinch it at the end.

 

[delPoFearhand]

The year end rankings & points from 2010 to 2015 year are:

2010
1 Rafael Nadal 12450
2 Roger Federer 9145
3 Novak Djokovic 6240
4 Andy Murray 5760
5 Robin Soderling 5580

2011
1 Novak Djokovic 13630
2 Rafael Nadal 9595
3 Roger Federer 8170
4 Andy Murray 7380
5 David Ferrer 4925

2012
1 Novak Djokovic 12920
2 Roger Federer 10265
3 Andy Murray 8000
4 Rafael Nadal 6690
5 David Ferrer 6505

2013
1 Rafael Nadal 13030
2 Novak Djokovic 12260
3 David Ferrer 5800
4 Andy Murray 5790
5 Juan Martin Del Potro 5255

2014
1 Novak Djokovic 11360
2 Roger Federer 9775
3 Rafael Nadal 6835
4 Stanislas Wawrinka 5370
5 Kei Nishikori 5025d
(6 Andy Murray 4675)

2015
1 Novak Djokovic 16585
2 Andy Murray 8945
3 Roger Federer 8265
4 Stanislas Wawrinka 6865
5 Rafael Nadal 5230

So, we can clearly see that Fiero is off by a bit- Novak has not been "doubling his closest rivals" for "most of his reign". The ratio of points for Novak to the top non-Novak points total (Novak/Highest non-Novak) for that time is:
2010: 0.5012
2011: 1.4205
2012: 1.2586
2013: 0.9409
2014: 1.1621
2015: 1.8541

which leaves us with exactly one year where he nearly doubled his closest rival (Andy last year).

HOWEVER, he has doubled up Andy himself far more often- that ratio (Novak/Andy) for the time period is:

2010: 1.0833
2011: 1.8469
2012: 1.6150
2013: 2.1174
2014: 2.4299
2015: 1.8541

Personally, I want Andy to catch up because I would like the end of year tournament to mean something. Here's hoping Cincy goes well for Andy!

 

[El Dude]

Winning Cincinnati would see Andy about 800 points back, with four big tournaments to play: US Open, Shanghai, Paris, and the WTF - a total of 5500 possible points - plus a scattering of minor titles, Beijing/Tokyo and Vienna/Basel being paired ATP 500s. It would still be a tall order to catch Novak, but it would be possible. Just beating Novak in the US Open final would bring them about even, then he'd only have to out-play him by a hair.

Cincy could be very interesting, with Andy the favorite and Rafa probably not a serious factor on a fast court. It would be a solid chance at a new Masters champion: Raonic, Kei, even Kyrgios, although I don't seem him ready to win a big one yet, or perhaps another by Berdych or Tsonga. I'd love to see a new name up there.

 

[delPoFearhand]

With the rain delay at the Olympics I'm starting to think it is likely that there won't be any of the big 4 in Cincinnati- as much as I would like Andy to catch up.

It is almost assuredly too early to root for Zverev at the Masters level- but I'm going to do it anyways. The sport needs some new, young players to make an impact at the top level.

 

[isabelle]

Winning Cincinnati would see Andy about 800 points back, with four big tournaments to play: US Open, Shanghai, Paris, and the WTF - a total of 5500 possible points - plus a scattering of minor titles, Beijing/Tokyo and Vienna/Basel being paired ATP 500s. It would still be a tall order to catch Novak, but it would be possible. Just beating Novak in the US Open final would bring them about even, then he'd only have to out-play him by a hair.

Cincy could be very interesting, with Andy the favorite and Rafa probably not a serious factor on a fast court. It would be a solid chance at a new Masters champion: Raonic, Kei, even Kyrgios, although I don't seem him ready to win a big one yet, or perhaps another by Berdych or Tsonga. I'd love to see a new name up there.

wil Andy play Cincy if he reaches Rio's final ??? not sure about it

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Congratulations to Stan on becoming the third player to qualify for the London WTF. :clap Current cut off is 4575. But, it will probably come down to at least 4000 (so Milos and Kei are shoe-in even though not officially qualified yet). Also, as all slam winners have already qualified with a direct entry, nobody will have a back route.

Here are the current standings.

1 Novak Djokovic 10240
2 Andy Murray 8185
3 Stan Wawrinka 4820
4 Milos Raonic 4420
5 Kei Nishikori 4315
6 Gael Monfils 3355
7 Dominic Thiem 3205
8 Rafa Nadal 3200

After that there is a steep drop to 2530 with Berdych being next in line followed closely by Cilic, Goffin, Kyrgios and Tsonga.

I sure hope Gael Monfils does not qualify. We don't want to see tank jobs at WTF.

 

[isabelle]

well deserved for Stan happy for him

 

[herios]

Congratulations to Stan on becoming the third player to qualify for the London WTF. :clap Current cut off is 4575. But, it will probably come down to at least 4000 (so Milos and Kei are shoe-in even though not officially qualified yet). Also, as all slam winners have already qualified with a direct entry, nobody will have a back route.

Here are the current standings.

1 Novak Djokovic 10240
2 Andy Murray 8185
3 Stan Wawrinka 4820
4 Milos Raonic 4420
5 Kei Nishikori 4315
6 Gael Monfils 3355
7 Dominic Thiem 3205
8 Rafa Nadal 3200

After that there is a steep drop to 2530 with Berdych being next in line followed closely by Cilic, Goffin, Kyrgios and Tsonga.

I sure hope Gael Monfils does not qualify. We don't want to see tank jobs at WTF.

Because of the big gap opened below Nadal, I am almost sure they are the top 8 by the end of the season as well. So, I think Gael will also qualify

 

[delPoFearhand]

Congratulations to Stan on becoming the third player to qualify for the London WTF. :clap Current cut off is 4575. But, it will probably come down to at least 4000 (so Milos and Kei are shoe-in even though not officially qualified yet). Also, as all slam winners have already qualified with a direct entry, nobody will have a back route.

Here are the current standings.

1 Novak Djokovic 10240
2 Andy Murray 8185
3 Stan Wawrinka 4820
4 Milos Raonic 4420
5 Kei Nishikori 4315
6 Gael Monfils 3355
7 Dominic Thiem 3205
8 Rafa Nadal 3200

After that there is a steep drop to 2530 with Berdych being next in line followed closely by Cilic, Goffin, Kyrgios and Tsonga.

I sure hope Gael Monfils does not qualify. We don't want to see tank jobs at WTF.

Because of the big gap opened below Nadal, I am almost sure they are the top 8 by the end of the season as well. So, I think Gael will also qualify

It does seem likely. I think Gael's main problem in the SF was that he had already lost the match in his head before even stepping on the court. He abandoned his "Plan A" too quickly. I mean, look at Wawa in the final- he dropped the first set, sure, but used it to build rhythm and got momentum going into the second. Gael is (theoretically) capable of doing a similar thing if he believed in himself long enough to fully commit to a gameplan.

But instead he decided to try junkballing- terrible to play against, terrible to watch, and above all terrible because it didn't work.

Djokovic has developed that aura about him that no one aside from Murray, Stan, and Del Po think they are even capable of beating him. It is what Roger had for such a long time, where only Djokovic, Murray, and Rafa even thought they had a chance. If you step onto the court having already lost the match in your mind, you can only win if your opponent lets you in- you can't proactively win the match yourself.

 

[mrzz]

Probably those 8 but if Cilic wants to have a go he is playing far better than at least five guys above him. There are still 2 masters and and least two 500´s so it is mathematically quite possible.

 

[Fiero425]

Probably those 8 but if Cilic wants to have a go he is playing far better than at least five guys above him. There are still 2 masters and and least two 500´s so it is mathematically quite possible.

Taking a Masters with Nole and Murray around should automatically put him in like a MAJOR! :angel: :dodgy: :snicker

- - http://fiero4251.blogspot.com/2016/08/fan-page-novak-nole-djokovic.html - -

 

[herios]

5 spots are decided for the finals, Raonic and Nishikori are also qualified, beside Novak, Andy and Stan.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

5 spots are decided for the finals, Raonic and Nishikori are also qualified, beside Novak, Andy and Stan.

Nishikori not yet, as per live race rankings. However, he is virtually a shoe in. The interesting aspect will be the last three spots which will get decided by performance in indoor swing. Berdych might claw his way back in as Rafa and Thiem seem to be sliding back.

 

[Fiero425]

5 spots are decided for the finals, Raonic and Nishikori are also qualified, beside Novak, Andy and Stan.

Nishikori not yet, as per live race rankings. However, he is virtually a shoe in. The interesting aspect will be the last three spots which will get decided by performance in indoor swing. Berdych might claw his way back in as Rafa and Thiem seem to be sliding back.

Thiem just played too much; 23 tournaments so far IIRC! He's won and made it to later rounds so he's got some mileage on those spindly little legs of his! :angel: :dodgy: :cover

 

[herios]

5 spots are decided for the finals, Raonic and Nishikori are also qualified, beside Novak, Andy and Stan.

Nishikori not yet, as per live race rankings. However, he is virtually a shoe in. The interesting aspect will be the last three spots which will get decided by performance in indoor swing. Berdych might claw his way back in as Rafa and Thiem seem to be sliding back.

The commentators on the TV said that Kei is qualified plain and simple, only 3 spots left.

 

[isabelle]

next one is La Monf

 

[10isfan]

I look forward to seeing Monfils at the YEC. He has finally stopped pushing the ball, the first time in his career that he has done that for more than a match at a time. Something has clicked for him. Maybe he can win a big title before retiring. I hope so.

 

[El Dude]

After Shanghai we have one Masters (Paris), a pair of ATP 500s (Basel and Vienna), and three ATP 250s (Moscow, Antwerp, and Stockholm). The ATP 250s come first and are all next week; then we have Basel and Vienna the week after that, and then Paris. The most points a player could gain are 1750, and that's if they not only played all three, but won all three.

Just something to bear in mind as the final eight settle in.

So we have five: Novak, Andy, Stan, Milos, and Kei. Then we have:

6. Monfils 3625
7. Rafa 3300
8. Thiem 3205

Thiem's 3205 is the number one of the next group has to reach, and that's assuming he doesn't accrue any more points. Here's who still has at least a snowball's chance:

9. Berdych 2880
10. Goffin 2645
11. Cilic 2590
12. Kyrgios 2460
13. Bautista Agut 2340 (2740 if he wins Shanghai)
14. Federer 2130
15. Pouille 2106
16. Tsonga 2070
17. Dimitrov 1945
18. Cuevas 1735

Everyone else is eliminated. I think we can safely write off 14-18. Bautista Agut only really has a chance if he beats Andy Murray tomorrow, which is unlikely. Kyrgios is a dark-horse, because at some point he's going to go on a tear. I suppose Cilic fits a similar profile (although we've seen him go on tears). Goffin is steady and could sneak in if others collapse but I don't see a huge push. Berdych has the best chance point-wise, but even he is a long-shot: he has to out-play Thiem by 325 points.

All said and done, it looks like our final eight are probably set. Monfils is almost a lock, Rafa should get in, and Thiem's chances are looking good.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

I think Cilic is quite good in indoors and he may stand some chance, especially if he wins Paris. Note that Paris is the Masters that is often won by "outsiders".