2019 Roland Garros Semifinals: Nadal vs. Federer

[Ricardo]

h

Am I really? Protesting too much? All of the Fed fans are arguing that he might have that snowball's chance. Fair enough. Are you saying that I'm being mean just for arguing Rafa's side? Maybe Roger is the underdog here, but it has perhaps escaped your notice that there are a lot of folks around here that say terrible things about Rafa. All the time. I'm defending my guy. Is that so bad? Also, you seem to be saying that it's unkind to argue against the underdog. I'm sure you don't mean that. I have my opinion about the match, and I think it's owed to me.

EDIT: As to twinge of doubt...No.

hypocrisy, self-entitlement and stupidity at its best. Its a freaking forum, nothing is owed to you.

 

[Moxie]

h

hypocrisy, self-entitlement and stupidity at its best. Its a freaking forum, nothing is owed to you.

My opinion is. Believe me, I've admined here and on most of the others. I get that the forums owe us nothing. But we are here for our opinions, and that, in my experience, is what they protect.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

NBC has a funny schedule for semifinals. They are going to show the semifinals from 11 a.m. to 3 p.m. in all time zones. This probably means they would have bought the rights to telecast one (or even both) semifinals and then will not show them in entirety. Moreover, they will also block TC from showing it live (even when NBC is not showing it live), as NBC has rights to it.

Expect a huge mess in semifinal TV coverage in USA.

 

[britbox]

A gun to the head and it would be crazy not to pick Nadal... and the head says Nadal anyway... but the heart will back Fed to pull off an upset.

 

[Bonaca]

Actually, since around the 2nd or 3rd round, my feeling is this: I can see a scenario where Federer beats Nadal but loses against whoever is in the final.

Heart: Federer
Head: Bull

 

[Front242]

Heart: Federer
Head: Bull

How about this:

Bull: Shit
Head: Butt

 

[Bonaca]

How about this:

Bull: Shit
Head: Butt

Haha i will say nothing against this.

 

[don_fabio]

Actually, I say the polar opposite. Cooler weather means it nullifies Nadal's loopy topspin and renders his biggest weapon more or less redundant and allows the more aggressive player (Roger) hit through the court.

I rushed with my opionion yesterday. I must have got too excited that these two are playing again so was thinking in a way that if everything is super slow it favours a guy who likes to play on slower courts. I got confused with two different things: surface and weather conditions. I overlooked those high bouncing spin balls from Rafa, especially to Fed's backhand.

I see there is plenty of replies in this tread already, nothing brings discussions and hype like Fedal.

 

[don_fabio]

He'll have to serve better than he did v. Stan, convert more break chances, and stop hitting that tired shit into the net.

If he goes down that "tired shit into the net" road he doesn't stand a chance.

Now let's recap.

Fed has a re-wamped backhand and h2h on his side on last 5 encounters (all not on clay though)

Nadal is still the king of clay, very high in confidence and it seems odd to think that out of all players it's the Fed who is about to take him down. It is exciting thought still, but it probably takes more than what Fed has to take him down in RG.

Will be very interesting how the top draw plays out, but if Novak reaches the final he will surely have higher chances than Fed.

 

[mrzz]

Club players recognize their tennis in Roger's.

The post were this phrase comes from is a very good one, but I'll alter this part to "Club players recognize their tennis ideals in Roger's". I see what you mean but the difference in level is so abysmal that those top guys (and here I mean really elite) routinely execute shots that even good club players hardly try.

(It was like at hour 2:39. He said, "Mark this time.") And not a long time later the other commentator said, "Oh, now I see it."

I really disagree that it was a factor. One evidence to the contrary is the running passing shot he made at 40 all in the very last game. He successfully chased down most of the drop shots. Of course that he was feeling some effects of the previous match, and you could actually see that his game plan was to pull the trigger even earlier than usual. However, he was connecting those shots, so, all in all, that was not a B- Wawrinka. His quality of play on break points (either in favor or against him) was completely A++.

About the semifinal match, Nadal is on the very unfair position of a football player that will play a penalty shot. If he scores, not a big deal, it was his "obligation". If he misses... on the other hand it is the opposite for the goalkeeper: if its a goal, ok, not your fault. If you make a save, you are a hero, which is basically Federer's position.

I agree with El Dude's 70/30. For Nadal standard's, he is in big trouble!

 

[Federberg]

I really disagree that it was a factor. One evidence to the contrary is the running passing shot he made at 40 all in the very last game. He successfully chased down most of the drop shots. Of course that he was feeling some effects of the previous match, and you could actually see that his game plan was to pull the trigger even earlier than usual. However, he was connecting those shots, so, all in all, that was not a B- Wawrinka. His quality of play on break points (either in favor or against him) was completely A++.

I totally agree with this. And I suspect Moxie actually does too. She's to tough a customer to come out with some weak sauce validation from Courier and another commentator It was a tool to be used to justify her position so she went with it! Absolutely no evidence of tired play from Stan. It's good to read from her that Rafa is in good shape. I do hope that narrative doesn't change if the worst happens to her man

 

[Federberg]

There is certainly a twinge of doubt in Rafa. Normally, a pre-match presser for Fake Humble Rafa will go like this.

Journalist: Rafa, you are playing Mr. Nobody in the next round. What are your opinions about it.

Rafa: Nobody is playing extremely well, No. In the previous round he beat a blindman in five sets. In the round before that
he beat a dead man in five sets. Therefore, I should be very careful. I should play my very best to have an iota
of a chance in this match, No.

But, what happened in this presser.

Journalist: Roger said he is happy to be in Sf and happy to play Rafa. What do you think of it.
Rafa: I believe in the first part; Not so sure about the second part though.

So, what happened to all the fake-humbleness. Ralph is trying to play mind games here, trying to remind Roger of the old history.
Why does he feel the need to do it? There is a twinge of doubt in him.

This is remarkable. It is so out of character for Rafa I can only conclude that this match is in his head already. If I was 70/30 Rafa before, maybe I'm 69/31 Rafa now...

 

[mrzz]

I totally agree with this. And I suspect Moxie actually does too. She's to tough a customer to come out with some weak sauce validation from Courier and another commentator It was a tool to be used to justify her position so she went with it! Absolutely no evidence of tired play from Stan. It's good to read from her that Rafa is in good shape. I do hope that narrative doesn't change if the worst happens to her man

Here is we hoping for the worst then! But in her defense I do not think she would change her narrative, unless something visible happens. Not that I would be that sad in this case...

 

[atttomole]

Everyone has been gaming Roger's chances on this thread, so let me game Rafa's. As much as he didn't have his best clay season, he found his game in Rome, and has been playing some immaculate clay tennis during this tournament. Dropped a set to Goffin? Not that astonishing. Goffin is tricky, and Nadal dropped his intensity, much as he did to lose the set to Djoker in Rome. That one was really all Rafa's fault, and I give Goffin more credit in his round, but still...you do what you have to do, and keep the powder dry for the big moments. I don't think that shows "vulnerability." Basically, Rafa is fresh, and playing on a court that serves him well. Roger will be rested enough, but if he couldn't get past a fairly tired Wawrinka in less than 4, he's not going to beat a rested Nadal, even in 5. I see that a lot of folks here want to say that Wawrinka was perfectly fine. I thought he started to look pretty knackered in the legs in the 3rd. Roger will try to be aggressive, but he's gonna get passed for it He'll have to serve better than he did v. Stan, convert more break chances, and stop hitting that tired shit into the net.

I also never said that Roger is going to beat Nadal. You made a sweeping statement there.

 

[Bonaca]

Any infos about the court speed on Chatrier this year?
Is it really faster?

 

[britbox]

I've got a vibe that Federer pulls off a crazy upset... but I've had those vibes before and lost badly. Bottom line is Nadal will always be the favourite here. Fed's got a slim chance though... he always did.

 

[MartyB]

I've got a vibe that Federer pulls off a crazy upset... but I've had those vibes before and lost badly. Bottom line is Nadal will always be the favourite here. Fed's got a slim chance though... he always did.

This is a different Fed than in the past at RG. If he loses its because he was outplayed as opposed to in his head. Its really about 3 out 5 sets on the dirt that makes this a very difficult task. All the pressure is on Nadal. I'll say it again anyone but Djokovic to win here I'm good with.

 

[Federberg]

This is a different Fed than in the past at RG. If he loses its because he was outplayed as opposed to in his head. Its really about 3 out 5 sets on the dirt that makes this a very difficult task. All the pressure is on Nadal. I'll say it again anyone but Djokovic to win here I'm good with.

I'm largely with you. Although I would refine it and say I would be delighted to see anyone of Thiem, Zverev and of course Roger winning it all. Somehow if Khach were to win I would be asking myself where the hell Roger was to pick up a gimme! It goes without saying I wouldn't be thrilled with either Novak or Rafa winning. Unlike DF though I would be slightly more pissed about Novak winning than Rafa..

 

[shawnbm]

I have a hard time seeing how Federer gets past Nadal on this particular court. There is so much history and difficulty for Federer here against this particular opponent; this is the one surface and one court where his most brutal defeat occurred. I have a hard time believing Roger is so loose--he will be anxious and know he has won the last five and that he may feel he "should do better" compared to past times and that could weigh on him. When he is anxious, the first service percentage drops, so that will be something to watch out for. Nadal can play "instinctually" against Roger and one-handed backhand players, sorta like go into a default mode of relentless pounding with extra spin into the backhand and it does not stress him in the slightest. He opens up the court and then the forehand ends the point the other way. Roger will have to attack and be at the net often with success. If he does not win the first set it is over, but I think Rafa prevails in four close sets. Roger must come out on fire as he has done in the past (even on clay) and win the first set. He must press on and take the second--he has to have a good break point conversion rate, which he has never been able to do on the clay. It will take a lot and then even if he were to somehow prevail, I have a hard time seeing him taking down Nole if that is who is waiting. I can't vote for Roger--Rafael Nadal in four.

 

[Denis]

^ Fed will not have any mental block, he seems genuinely relaxed and he better be past his crybaby phase. The real issue is the rather large matchup issues and the surface. Nadal in three, but perhaps Fed knicks the first set.