2019 Roland Garros Semifinals: Nadal vs. Federer

[Moxie]

I totally agree with this. And I suspect Moxie actually does too. She's to tough a customer to come out with some weak sauce validation from Courier and another commentator It was a tool to be used to justify her position so she went with it! Absolutely no evidence of tired play from Stan. It's good to read from her that Rafa is in good shape. I do hope that narrative doesn't change if the worst happens to her man

This is kind of aggressive. All I did was respond to Front who said Stan didn’t look at all tired. He’s the one that brought it up. And I didn’t say it affected the outcome.

 

[shawnbm]

^ I hope you are right, as I wish to see a great battle like they had in Rome 13 long years ago. Two of their French Open finals were compelling as well.

 

[Moxie]

I also never said that Roger is going to beat Nadal. You made a sweeping statement there.

That’s not what I wrote.

 

[DarthFed]

At the very least I hope Roger can soften up the monger for slaughter on Sunday. I still don't have a good vibe for this one. Roger had his chances in 2006 and 2011, couldn't get it done. And at his age how long can he hope to grind it out? Clearly he would have to win the first set or it probably is over very quickly.

 

[Bonaca]

At the very least I hope Roger can soften up the monger for slaughter on Sunday. I still don't have a good vibe for this one. Roger had his chances in 2006 and 2011, couldn't get it done. And at his age how long can he hope to grind it out? Clearly he would have to win the first set or it probably is over very quickly.

No grinding, just his beautiful attacking tennis is needed on a consistently high level. Backhand clicking and solid serving. I’m strongly rooting for your guy to send this peasant back to his island.

 

[shawnbm]

^ Rafael Nadal, the peasant laureate of clay! LOL

 

[Front242]

I totally agree with this. And I suspect Moxie actually does too. She's to tough a customer to come out with some weak sauce validation from Courier and another commentator It was a tool to be used to justify her position so she went with it! Absolutely no evidence of tired play from Stan. It's good to read from her that Rafa is in good shape. I do hope that narrative doesn't change if the worst happens to her man

Yup. Stan was playing like an animal to the very end. Nonsense talk about tired legs. I mean in theory they should have been tired after a very long prior match but with what was at stake and the adrenaline rush he showed absolutely no signs of fatigue. None

 

[Front242]

This is a different Fed than in the past at RG. If he loses its because he was outplayed as opposed to in his head. Its really about 3 out 5 sets on the dirt that makes this a very difficult task. All the pressure is on Nadal. I'll say it again anyone but Djokovic to win here I'm good with.

Anyone but Djokovic or Nadal

 

[Moxie]

The post were this phrase comes from is a very good one, but I'll alter this part to "Club players recognize their tennis ideals in Roger's". I see what you mean but the difference in level is so abysmal that those top guys (and here I mean really elite) routinely execute shots that even good club players hardly try.



I really disagree that it was a factor. One evidence to the contrary is the running passing shot he made at 40 all in the very last game. He successfully chased down most of the drop shots. Of course that he was feeling some effects of the previous match, and you could actually see that his game plan was to pull the trigger even earlier than usual. However, he was connecting those shots, so, all in all, that was not a B- Wawrinka. His quality of play on break points (either in favor or against him) was completely A++.

About the semifinal match, Nadal is on the very unfair position of a football player that will play a penalty shot. If he scores, not a big deal, it was his "obligation". If he misses... on the other hand it is the opposite for the goalkeeper: if its a goal, ok, not your fault. If you make a save, you are a hero, which is basically Federer's position.

I agree with El Dude's 70/30. For Nadal standard's, he is in big trouble!

i basically said the same thing re: club players, but in a parenthetical.

As to Stan and fatigue, I don’t think I ever said it affected the match. I didn’t bring it up, Front did. But he should re-read your post above because while you make a good case for how it didn’t affect the outcome of the match, you can at least see that the guy was affected by his previous match. I was surprised how much he didn’t seem at all tired in the first couple of sets though.

 

[kskate2]

Already 6 pages and the match won't happen until Fri

 

[Moxie]

Already 6 pages and the match won't happen until Fri

It’ll be a dozen by Friday and will go on for another 26 after the match is over. We love our Fedal Wars.

 

[mrzz]

It’ll be a dozen by Friday and will go on for another 26 after the match is over. We love our Fedal Wars.

At least this time there is an actual match on the horizon.

 

[Moxie]

At least this time there is an actual match on the horizon.

Don’t jinx. It could still go away.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Damp, rainy and cloudy weather. Advantage Fed. Increase chances by another 10 percentage.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Tignor chooses not to jinx Fed

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Everyone knows that Fed's rejuvenated drive backhand has never been tested on clay against Ralph as he revamped the backhand only in Jan. 2017 when he came back from six month hiatus. What some may not know is that even the Fed's larger 98 square inch racquet has never been tested on clay against Ralph. Roger switched to the new racquet in July 2013, whereas the last Fedal clay match was in Rome 2013 which is obviously played before July 2013. I am very confident that the larger racquet and the revamped backhand together should certainly make Ralph's bouncing topspin forehand to Roger's backhand less venomous. It would be interesting to see whether Ralph comes to the match assuming this old forehand to backhand high bouncing vicious shots will continue to work. If it does not, will he have a plan B ready before coming to the match or will he try to figure out something during the match. It is hard to do so during the match.

However, one thing that I am worried about is Ralph's beautiful passing shots. Fed's game plan would certainly involve coming forward a lot (and it should). He should keep in mind that coming forward will not be as profitable as against Stan. He is going to be getting passed more often. However, he should not get discouraged due to that and abandon coming forward. He just needs to be careful to have a good approach shot before coming forward.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Just when I thought about Ralph's passing shots and Fed's net play and posted the above item, I see this article in ATP site . Apparently, Fed is having about 75% success rate at the net in this RG. Moreover, when Roger beat Rafa, usually a key component of it is having good success rate when coming forward.

 

[El Dude]

If this were a computer simulation, then Rafa would probably beat Roger 80% of the time - he's just got the edge on clay in so many ways, not just the history but his power, the way the ball bounces that makes it difficult for Roger to hit it on the rise, and of course the forehand passing shots. But there's a psychological factor that I think reduces that to about 70% and, I have a hunch, Roger has a game plan to defeat Rafa that involves trying to keep him off his baseline rhythm. Roger needs to mix it up, bring Rafa in, and he needs to be serving well.

So yeah, I'm sticking with 70-30, although I voted Roger in 4 because I'm optimistic.

 

[Bonaca]

Weather is an important factor. If the conditions will be slow it favours Nadal.

The best scenario for Fed is to take that first set and make Nadal guessing what has just happened. His chances will be really low if Nadal takes the first set. Rafa will then start hitting corners and lines and fist pump and all. Fed needs to shake his confidence and the best way to achieve that is by taking the opening set.

I am so thrilled these two are going to play again, but I am not sure I will be able to watch it.

Remember Australia this year, bull destroyed every opponent before the final, and then... you know the end.
Why no

If this were a computer simulation, then Rafa would probably beat Roger 80% of the time - he's just got the edge on clay in so many ways, not just the history but his power, the way the ball bounces that makes it difficult for Roger to hit it on the rise, and of course the forehand passing shots. But there's a psychological factor that I think reduces that to about 70% and, I have a hunch, Roger has a game plan to defeat Rafa that involves trying to keep him off his baseline rhythm. Roger needs to mix it up, bring Rafa in, and he needs to be serving well.

So yeah, I'm sticking with 70-30, although I voted Roger in 4 because I'm optimistic.

your spice in God’s ear. Hope the unimaginable becomes truth.

 

[lob]

Two nice, short reads.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/rafael-nadal-is-playing-mind-games-with-you/

https://www.sbnation.com/platform/a...erer-roland-garros-history-quote-championship