Everyone has been gaming Roger's chances on this thread, so let me game Rafa's. As much as he didn't have his best clay season, he found his game in Rome, and has been playing some immaculate clay tennis during this tournament. Dropped a set to Goffin? Not that astonishing. Goffin is tricky, and Nadal dropped his intensity, much as he did to lose the set to Djoker in Rome. That one was really all Rafa's fault, and I give Goffin more credit in his round, but still...you do what you have to do, and keep the powder dry for the big moments. I don't think that shows "vulnerability." Basically, Rafa is fresh, and playing on a court that serves him well. Roger will be rested enough, but if he couldn't get past a fairly tired Wawrinka in less than 4, he's not going to beat a rested Nadal, even in 5. I see that a lot of folks here want to say that Wawrinka was perfectly fine. I thought he started to look pretty knackered in the legs in the 3rd. Roger will try to be aggressive, but he's gonna get passed for it He'll have to serve better than he did v. Stan, convert more break chances, and stop hitting that tired shit into the net.