2019 Roland Garros Semifinals: Nadal vs. Federer

[MargaretMcAleer]

Weather is an important factor. If the conditions will be slow it favours Nadal.

The best scenario for Fed is to take that first set and make Nadal guessing what has just happened. His chances will be really low if Nadal takes the first set. Rafa will then start hitting corners and lines and fist pump and all. Fed needs to shake his confidence and the best way to achieve that is by taking the opening set.

I am so thrilled these two are going to play again, but I am not sure I will be able to watch it.

Rafa prefers the weather to be sunny and warm at RG it helps the spin on his fhand.....I was at the final when it was damp and raining in his match against Novak....it certainly did not help him.

 

[Front242]

Weather is an important factor. If the conditions will be slow it favours Nadal.

The best scenario for Fed is to take that first set and make Nadal guessing what has just happened. His chances will be really low if Nadal takes the first set. Rafa will then start hitting corners and lines and fist pump and all. Fed needs to shake his confidence and the best way to achieve that is by taking the opening set.

I am so thrilled these two are going to play again, but I am not sure I will be able to watch it.

Actually, I say the polar opposite. Cooler weather means it nullifies Nadal's loopy topspin and renders his biggest weapon more or less redundant and allows the more aggressive player (Roger) hit through the court. Remember the 3rd set of the 2013 final where admittedly it was pissing rain (they should have stopped play tbh) and Nadal hadn't a prayer against Djokovic that set once his topspin wasn't working? 100% agree about winning the 1st set. He should've won the first set in 2011 and it would likely have been a completely different match then. Precisely why the ever sporting Nadal decided it'd be a good time to sit down and take off his shoes, bandage his feet and stop Federer's momentum and cause a giant mental collapse. He's not gonna let that shit happen this year and he won't be running around his backhand anywhere near as much either.

Bring it on.

 

[Front242]

Slice 'n dice, baby!

 

[Denis]

If Fed knicks a set, I’m giving Djokovic a 20% chance on Sunday (in cool wet conditions).

Nads in three, but will still be decent to watch.

 

[MargaretMcAleer]

Fun Fact

Each time Rafa has advanced to the semis at RG,he has gone on to lift the trophy in his previous 11 trips.

 

[tented]

Actually, I say the polar opposite. Cooler weather means it nullifies Nadal's loopy topspin and renders his biggest weapon more or less redundant and allows the more aggressive player (Roger) hit through the court. Remember the 3rd set of the 2013 final where admittedly it was pissing rain (they should have stopped play tbh) and Nadal hadn't a prayer against Djokovic that set once his topspin wasn't working?

Yep, completely agree with this. Rafa wants it to be as hot and dry as possible, so that the spin and high bounce work. Damp and cool are his nightmare. When Soderling beat him, it was overcast and cool. I'm not saying that was the only reason Rafa lost, but it certainly didn't help.

 

[tented]

If Fed knicks a set, I’m giving Djokovic a 20% chance on Sunday (in cool wet conditions).

Nads in three, but will still be decent to watch.

Hello, @Denis. Nice to see you again.

 

[Denis]

Yep, completely agree with this. Rafa wants it to be as hot and dry as possible, so that the spin and high bounce work. Damp and cool are his nightmare. When Soderling beat him, it was overcast and cool. I'm not saying that was the only reason Rafa lost, but it certainly didn't help.

I read something about his shaking knees on this board too.

 

[Front242]

If Fed knicks a set, I’m giving Djokovic a 20% chance on Sunday (in cool wet conditions).

Nads in three, but will still be decent to watch.

Djokovic still has to win 2 more matches to even make the final. Not a given with the pressure of what's at stake along with 2 hungry, hairy German bastards!

 

[Denis]

Djokovic still has to win 2 more matches to even make the final. Not a given with the pressure of what's at stake along with 2 hungry, hairy German bastards!

That’s still a better prospect than facing Nadal in the semis.

 

[Front242]

Yep, completely agree with this. Rafa wants it to be as hot and dry as possible, so that the spin and high bounce work. Damp and cool are his nightmare. When Soderling beat him, it was overcast and cool. I'm not saying that was the only reason Rafa lost, but it certainly didn't help.

Yup, I remember it well 'cos the following year in 2010 the bookies were basing their predictions for a repeat on the weather and there was a chance of damp, cooler conditions before the final and just at the last minute it changed to bright, blue skies so Soderling hadn't a prayer then.

 

[Front242]

That’s still a better prospect than facing Nadal in the semis.

I agree, Zverev and Thiem would be preferable over Nadal but I could see Thiem beating Federer too. He's a very tough opponent on clay. Zverev obviously less so but he's proven a lot of people wrong so far this tournament and kinda going under the radar with most expecting him to be gone by the 3rd round at best or even earlier. For Roger, I also think it's better to face Nadal in the semi than the final where he'll be uber confident and rightly so with his track record.

 

[tented]

Zverev obviously less so but he's proven a lot of people wrong so far this tournament and kinda going under the radar with most expecting him to be gone by the 3rd round at best or even earlier.

Zverev's RG ends tomorrow.

 

[Front242]

Zverev's RG ends tomorrow.

For sure but it's been much better than anyone expected, including him!

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Actually, since around the 2nd or 3rd round, my feeling is this: I can see a scenario where Federer beats Nadal but loses against whoever is in the final.

I will take Fed in final if it is Sasha or KK across the net (of course, chances for that are next to nil).

 

[El Dude]

Why is the main thread closed?

Anyhow, I'm not just pencilling Novak into the final. He's had issues with Zverev in the past, and Sascha has something to prove. Obviously Novak is favored, but Zverev and then Thiem/Khachanov isn't an easy route.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Early odds for this match:

Rafa 1/8 (88.88%)

Roger 32/5 (13.51%)

 

[Front242]

^ Fed is relishing the no pressure underdog status this year. Based on that, his chances are definitely higher than that.

 

[Moxie]

Nadal has been broken a few times to nobodies and often hits short balls when rattled. If he goes all passive like that and Roger plays well, he'll punish that kind of lame moon balling. 2011 was a very close match except for the last set when Roger went all passive and stopped being aggressive but Nadal looked hopeless against him in set 1 of their 2011 encounter and had to resort to stopping play to wreck Roger's head and win the set. He won't let crap like that happen now. I say have more faith in Roger. He's gonna go all out here in what is likely to be their last encounter at RG and, with so much on the line, it'll be a bloodbath.

Perhaps you didn't notice Roger's BP conversion percentage today. He's not going to be rattled against Roger, esp. on clay.

 

[Front242]

Perhaps you didn't notice Roger's BP conversion percentage today. He's not going to be rattled against Roger, esp. on clay.

I didn't watch any of it except highlights but every day is a new day so BP conversion today means absolutely nothing and he's proven he has serious game to beat Stan who didn't appear one bit fatigued after his long prior match. Roger still won all the important points and looked great in the highlights. Easy to be cocky when Nadal beat a guy with an injured arm and dead legs today. Nishikori was bending down flexing his dead legs the moment he beat Paire. He's had a lot of calf issues in the past and is made of glass. The scoreline today was no surprise due to lack of recovery time for Kei but Nadal's not playing a wounded duck next round.

Previously the Nadal camp could seek comfort in thinking Roger would fold meekly like a cheap tent against him but Federer was making a monkey out of him in set 1 in 2011 and the dynamics of the match only changed 'cos the ever sporting Nadal had to stall the match while losing 5-2 knowing full well this would rattle Roger's momentum, make him cool down and lose focus. That won't happen again and they may appear to be "friends" on camera but he doesn't forget shit like that and won't be playing all passive and getting pinned in the backhand side of the court. Instead he'll be firing winners with his own backhand which will make for a refreshing change.

They better close the toilet too in case Ralph decides he has projectile diarrhoea when behind on the scoreboard and has to rush off.