Tracking the Race to London - 2014 WTF

[GameSetAndMath]

It is exciting that Grigor is currently #6 in the Race to London rankings. If he beats Novak tomorrow he'll be #5. Either way, he's got a great chance of making the WTF.

Rafa, Novak, Stan, and Roger are all but in - each with 4000+ points. After that it is going to be a dog-fight for the last four slots, with seven players--Berdych, Dimitrov, Murray, Nishikori, Ferrer, Gulbis, and Roanic--all within 800 points of each other, between 3050 and 2250.

I don't want Milos and Ferrer in there. I will take any four of the remaining five.

 

[Front242]

^ Sounds good to me!

 

[Kieran]

Not much love for The Man With The Silver Arm. Milos might be the old traditional big frightening ogre who gets torn down by the tiny villagers with the pitchforks, but I have to admit he's gone further this Wimbo than I thought he would. I still don't see him as a champ, but still, his movement up the rankings is welcome, and if he made the WTF he'd do some damage with that fuel-charged rocket...

 

[tented]

It is exciting that Grigor is currently #6 in the Race to London rankings. If he beats Novak tomorrow he'll be #5. Either way, he's got a great chance of making the WTF.

Rafa, Novak, Stan, and Roger are all but in - each with 4000+ points. After that it is going to be a dog-fight for the last four slots, with seven players--Berdych, Dimitrov, Murray, Nishikori, Ferrer, Gulbis, and Roanic--all within 800 points of each other, between 3050 and 2250.

I'm hoping the last four are Dimitrov, Murray, Nishikori, and Gulbis.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

OK. With today's win Novak has also officially qualified. No one else can officially qualify
tomorrow independent of what happens.

So, by the end of Wimbledon we have Rafa and Novak officially qualifying.

Roger and Stan will probably qualify officially by the end of USO.

Perhaps Berdych by end of Asian Swing.

The last three will probably will go to the wire.

 

[TennisFanatic7]

I'd take the top 8 as they are now with Berdych, Murray, Dimitrov and Nishikori joining Stan, Rafa, Roger and Novak

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Here are the top 8 in the race that will be released tomorrow, Monday the 7th of July,
the post Wimbledon edition. Those who qualified are in Bold.

1 Novak Djokovic SRB 7250
2 Rafael Nadal ESP 6650
3 Roger Federer SUI 4560
4 Stan Wawrinka SUI 4095
5 Tomas Berdych CZE 3050
6 Grigor Dimitrov BUL 2785
7 Andy Murray GBR 2435
8 Kei Nishikori JPN 2405

The cut off at this time is 5790. Recall that the cut off will keep decreasing as we
progress through the year. Closely following are 9. David Ferrer ESP 2385,
10 Ernests Gulbis LAT 2265 and 11 Milos Raonic CAN 2205. Then there is about
500 points gap before we reach the next player, viz., Marin Cilic of Croatia at 1730.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

ATP does not yet officially recognize the qualification of Rafa. However, the live rankings site
does. ATP calls the qualification in a very conservative and lethargic manner. However, the live rankings site is indeed reliable on these early calls as it bases its calculation on a worst case
scenario only.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Here are the top 8 in the race as per the rankings that will be released tomorrow,
Monday the 14th of July. Normally, you don't expect any changes during the week
after a GS as big guns usually won't be playing. However, there is one small change
in the new race rankings. Ferrer has edged out (by just five points) Nishikori into
position 8 of the race. Based on the comments in this thread, it seems nobody would
like to see Ferrer in WTF. But, he may end up going there despite our wishes.
That may be the reason he plays every tournament out there these days. He
perhaps feels threated by the new crop possibly usurping his spot.

1 Novak Djokovic SRB 7250
2 Rafael Nadal ESP 6650
3 Roger Federer SUI 4560
4 Stan Wawrinka SUI 4095
5 Tomas Berdych CZE 3050
6 Grigor Dimitrov BUL 2785
7 Andy Murray GBR 2435
8 David Ferrer ESP 2410

 

[GameSetAndMath]

ATP finally realized that Nadal qualified.

Here is the article.

http://www.atpworldtour.com/News/Tennis/2014/07/29/London-Finale-Nadal-Bryans-Qualify.aspx

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Just a quick reminder to everyone starting from this year, we will go back to old
school scheduling where there will be a gap of one week between Bercy Masters
and London WTF. So, all players will be well rested and the WTF will be more
interesting.

Unfortunately, the last two years (i.e,, 2012 and 2013), there was no gap
between Bercy and WTF and this meant that for players participating in
Basel/Valencia, they needed to play three weeks in a row. Incidentally,
Novak won in 2012 and 2013.

In 2010 and 2011, when there was a gap, Roger won. I fancy Roger's
chances of winning WTF this year.

 

[Front242]

Yeah, I fancy his chances at the WTF too but wtf do I know ?

 

[DarthFed]

Roger didn't play Bercy in 2012 and still lost the finals to Djokovic in surprisingly easy fashion. The surface is slow but has a dead bounce so overall it is a very good surface for both Roger and Novak.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

As per the race rankings that will be relased tomorrow, here are the leaders.

1 Novak Djokovic SRB 7250
2 Rafael Nadal ESP 6650
3 Roger Federer SUI 4560
4 Stan Wawrinka SUI 4095
5 Tomas Berdych CZE 3050
6 Grigor Dimitrov BUL 2785
7 David Ferrer ESP 2665
8 Andy Murray GBR 2435

Ferrer has strengthened his position and leaped ahead of Andy by reaching the
finals of Hamburg. As much as I want to, it may be hard to get rid of him.

I would expect Fed to officially qualify on or before the end of USO. Wawrinka
is virtually assured of qualifying by virtue of his GS win at AO, even if he did not
end up in the top 8 in the final race rankings. I really doubt that the oldies of
Murray, Berdych and Ferrer will let go of their stranglehold on the top 8 positions.
If so, there is really one vacant spot left for Grigor, Nishikori, Gulbis and Milos
to fight it out. I would take Grigor from this group (as I don't like Milos's one
dimensional game, Nishikori's fitness and Gulbis's consistency).

Of course, there is so much tennis to be played and things can change,
but probably not by much.

 

[TennisFanatic7]

Federer, Stan, Murray and Berdych are dead certs to get in for me. Ferrer is most likely to join them, and out of the remaining contenders, Dimitrov is my comfortable favourite to get in on current form.

 

[herios]

Federer, Stan, Murray and Berdych are dead certs to get in for me. Ferrer is most likely to join them, and out of the remaining contenders, Dimitrov is my comfortable favourite to get in on current form.

There are many events with big points still to be played, therefore, only Roger and Stan, beside the top 2 can be called at this moment a sure bet for the WTF. The other 4 spots are wide opened.

 

[TennisFanatic7]

Federer, Stan, Murray and Berdych are dead certs to get in for me. Ferrer is most likely to join them, and out of the remaining contenders, Dimitrov is my comfortable favourite to get in on current form.

There are many events with big points still to be played, therefore, only Roger and Stan, beside the top 2 can be called at this moment a sure bet for the WTF. The other 4 spots are wide opened.

In terms of the points available, yes. I'm just saying that I can't see there being 3-4 players who can be consistent enough to outscore Berdych and/or Murray over the course of the US Open and four Masters 1000 events to leave them outside the top 8.

 

[Fastgrass]

IMO following guys making to WTF this year-

Djoko
Nadal
Federer
Stan
Dimitrov
Raonic
Nishikori Kei
Murray/Ferrer/Gulbis

 

[herios]

Federer, Stan, Murray and Berdych are dead certs to get in for me. Ferrer is most likely to join them, and out of the remaining contenders, Dimitrov is my comfortable favourite to get in on current form.

There are many events with big points still to be played, therefore, only Roger and Stan, beside the top 2 can be called at this moment a sure bet for the WTF. The other 4 spots are wide opened.

In terms of the points available, yes. I'm just saying that I can't see there being 3-4 players who can be consistent enough to outscore Berdych and/or Murray over the course of the US Open and four Masters 1000 events to leave them outside the top 8.

Raonic was more consistent than Berdych, Murray or Ferrer for example, during March- July. He just is trailing them because he got injured at the AO and missed some events afterwards.
Therefore he cannot be overlooked at this point. If he keeps his form, he will join the top 8 soon.

 

[isabelle]

Hope Murray can qualify, the contrary'ld be a real shame !!