Tracking the Race to London - 2014 WTF

[JesuslookslikeBorg]

Hope Murray can qualify, the contrary'ld be a real shame !!

I think murray will be fine, defo for getting enough rank points to finish top8 for the year end wtf,

now he is fully fit (must be by now surely) and he's had a few weeks acclimatizing with mauresmo :idea: ii'm expecting murrays post Wimbledon trough to end.

 

[TennisFanatic7]

Federer, Stan, Murray and Berdych are dead certs to get in for me. Ferrer is most likely to join them, and out of the remaining contenders, Dimitrov is my comfortable favourite to get in on current form.

There are many events with big points still to be played, therefore, only Roger and Stan, beside the top 2 can be called at this moment a sure bet for the WTF. The other 4 spots are wide opened.

In terms of the points available, yes. I'm just saying that I can't see there being 3-4 players who can be consistent enough to outscore Berdych and/or Murray over the course of the US Open and four Masters 1000 events to leave them outside the top 8.

Raonic was more consistent than Berdych, Murray or Ferrer for example, during March- July. He just is trailing them because he got injured at the AO and missed some events afterwards.
Therefore he cannot be overlooked at this point. If he keeps his form, he will join the top 8 soon.

Consistency will only get you so far with points though. If Raonic makes the quarters of Toronto, Cincy and US Open, he gets 720 points. If Murray has one tournament where he actually finds his best form he can win a Masters or reach the US Open final (and I'm not saying that that's going to happen) and outdo those 720 points in one fell swoop. The same can't be said of Raonic at this point. This is just an example, bear in mind.

 

[herios]

Federer, Stan, Murray and Berdych are dead certs to get in for me. Ferrer is most likely to join them, and out of the remaining contenders, Dimitrov is my comfortable favourite to get in on current form.

There are many events with big points still to be played, therefore, only Roger and Stan, beside the top 2 can be called at this moment a sure bet for the WTF. The other 4 spots are wide opened.

In terms of the points available, yes. I'm just saying that I can't see there being 3-4 players who can be consistent enough to outscore Berdych and/or Murray over the course of the US Open and four Masters 1000 events to leave them outside the top 8.

Raonic was more consistent than Berdych, Murray or Ferrer for example, during March- July. He just is trailing them because he got injured at the AO and missed some events afterwards.
Therefore he cannot be overlooked at this point. If he keeps his form, he will join the top 8 soon.

Consistency will only get you so far with points though. If Raonic makes the quarters of Toronto, Cincy and US Open, he gets 720 points. If Murray has one tournament where he actually finds his best form he can win a Masters or reach the US Open final (and I'm not saying that that's going to happen) and outdo those 720 points in one fell swoop. The same can't be said of Raonic at this point. This is just an example, bear in mind.

Hm, you just forgot that Raonic managed SF in both Rome as well as Wimbledon. And those were on his weakest surfaces...

 

[TennisFanatic7]

I haven't forgotten that at all. I did specifically say "this is just an example" in the hope of not having to clarify this, but my point was simply that Murray's maximum level is higher than Raonic's maximum level and used some example numbers to back up my point.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

There are no changes in the top 13 spots in the ATP race rankings to be released tomorrow,
Monday, the 28th of July.

However, with his win in Atlanta, Isner has moved up to spot #14 in the race. If he makes
some noise in the big events in North American hard courts, he may become a contender
for a spot in WTF too. But, I don't particularly want to see him over in London.

We can expect some movement at the top by the end of next week as quite a few contenders
(Beredych, Grigor, Milos, Kei, and Isner) for spots are participating in Washington DC.

Also, there is some possibility of Murray being booted out of top 8 after next week as he
is not playing and some immediate threats to him are playing in Washington DC.
In particular, Kei is behind Andy by only 30 points and will pass him with just a couple
of wins in DC. Milos also has a chance to pass Andy, but must reach at least the finals
in DC to do so.

 

[Fastgrass]

Consistency will only get you so far with points though. If Raonic makes the quarters of Toronto, Cincy and US Open, he gets 720 points. If Murray has one tournament where he actually finds his best form he can win a Masters or reach the US Open final (and I'm not saying that that's going to happen) and outdo those 720 points in one fell swoop. The same can't be said of Raonic at this point. This is just an example, bear in mind.

Murray has won just 1 masters in last 25 (almost 3 years) in his Mythical peak (Lendlised Murray 2.0) with match point down against guy like Ferrer. Enough said!

and if you are taking about USO finals it's looking impossible scenario considering his ranking (probable seeding), inability to beat young strong opposition and other top 10s unless he gets Youzny- Verdasco- JJ kind of draw facing no Top 10s which is virtually impossible since top field is more stronger than 2013 with entry of young players.

IMO he'll quality for WTF but his position will be 7th or 8th. He'll be end tail end season qualifier after Paris Bercy results will be out. Top 5 spots are almost fixed with Top 4+ Berdych. For remaining 3 spots, Dimitrov (6th) and very tough competition for last 2 spots within players Murray, Ferrer, Kei, Gulbis, Raonic will be most realistic scenario.

 

[TennisFanatic7]

Consistency will only get you so far with points though. If Raonic makes the quarters of Toronto, Cincy and US Open, he gets 720 points. If Murray has one tournament where he actually finds his best form he can win a Masters or reach the US Open final (and I'm not saying that that's going to happen) and outdo those 720 points in one fell swoop. The same can't be said of Raonic at this point. This is just an example, bear in mind.

Murray has won just 1 masters in last 25 (almost 3 years) in his Mythical peak (Lendlised Murray 2.0) with match point down against guy like Ferrer. Enough said!

and if you are taking about USO finals it's looking impossible scenario considering his ranking (probable seeding), inability to beat young strong opposition and other top 10s unless he gets Youzny- Verdasco- JJ kind of draw facing no Top 10s which is virtually impossible since top field is more stronger than 2013 with entry of young players.

IMO he'll quality for WTF but his position will be 7th or 8th. He'll be end tail end season qualifier after Paris Bercy results will be out. Top 5 spots are almost fixed with Top 4+ Berdych. For remaining 3 spots, Dimitrov (6th) and very tough competition for last 2 spots within players Murray, Ferrer, Kei, Gulbis, Raonic will be most realistic scenario.

Again, those two slams and Olympic gold and 5-6 consecutive major finals he reached under Lendl didn't seem all that mythical to me but each to their own.

I agree with the conclusion of your post though.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Please see below for the ATP Race leaders as of tomorrow, Monday the 4th August.
As the race tightens up, starting from this week, I am going to post the points of
everyone who is a contender, stopping at a spot where there is a huge drop in points.

1 Novak Djokovic SRB 7260
2 Rafael Nadal ESP 6650
3 Roger Federer SUI 4570
4 Stan Wawrinka SUI 4105
5 Tomas Berdych CZE 3060
6 Grigor Dimitrov BUL 2795
7 Milos Raonic CAN 2715
8 David Ferrer ESP 2675
9 Kei Nishikori JPN 2475
10 Andy Murray GBR 2445
11 Ernests Gulbis LAT 2275

Next in line is Cilic, but he is a whopping 445 below Gulbis and so I stop here.

As predicted earlier, Andy Murray got booted out of top 8. In fact, both the
guys who had a chance to surpass him this week, actually surpassed him. But,
hopefully, Andy will bounce back and get back into top 8 just in time before the
WTF.

Of the above contenders, three cannot make it. Who will they be?
We can say Kei will not be able to make it due to his health and Gulbis
cannot make it as he is not known for his consistency. But, there is
no obvious choice for the third loser. Your speculations are welcome.

 

[Front242]

Fingers crossed Ferrer doesn't make it as he didn't win a single match last year. I'd prefer to see someone who poses a challenge.

 

[TennisFanatic7]

If Andy steps up he should knock out Ferrer. I wouldn't rule out Gulbis either.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

If Andy steps up he should knock out Ferrer. I wouldn't rule out Gulbis either.

Actually, I would take Andy instead of Ferrer and Gulbis instead of Milos.
My first wish has some chances, second seems to have very little.

Anyway, lots of things can happen. Let us have some fun as things play out.

 

[Front242]

If Andy steps up he should knock out Ferrer. I wouldn't rule out Gulbis either.

Actually, I would take Andy instead of Ferrer and Gulbis instead of Milos.
My first wish has some chances, second seems to have very little.

Anyway, lots of things can happen. Let us have some fun as things play out.

Yeah, I'd happily substitute them that way too for the sake of competition and viewing pleasure.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

ALERT: The cut off for qualification has now come down to 5440. This would mean
that Roger can qualify instantly, if he wins Toronto.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Here are the contenders after the Toronto Masters. In this edition, we welcome a
new contender; there is no need to say who he is. I hope the boxer makes it to WTF.

1 Novak Djokovic SRB 7350
2 Rafael Nadal ESP 6650
3 Roger Federer SUI 5170
4 Stan Wawrinka SUI 4195
5 Grigor Dimitrov BUL 3155
6 Tomas Berdych CZE 3150
7 Milos Raonic CAN 2895
8 David Ferrer ESP 2855
9 Andy Murray GBR 2625
10 Kei Nishikori JPN 2475
11 Jo Wilfried Tsonga FRA 2375
12 Ernests Gulbis LAT 2320

Next in line is Cilic and he is 400 points below Gulbis and so I stop there.

Federer is just 270 points below the cutoff and so will officially qualify on or before USO.
Stan has an inside route, being a GS winner, even if he does not accumulate huge points.
So, we can say with virtual certainty that the top four above will make it (actually the top
two have already officially made it and that is why they are in bold print).

But, beyond that nothing can really be said. It is no longer certain that Berdych will
make it; he looked like a shoe in some weeks ago. The only thing that I venture to
speculate is that Kei won't make it with that kind of health issues.

We need to show the door to 3 more people. My preference, not prediction, is to throw
out Berdych, Raonic and Ferrer

 

[herios]

Here are the contenders after the Toronto Masters. In this edition, we welcome a
new contender; there is no need to say who he is. I hope the boxer makes it to WTF.

1 Novak Djokovic SRB 7350
2 Rafael Nadal ESP 6650
3 Roger Federer SUI 5170
4 Stan Wawrinka SUI 4195
5 Grigor Dimitrov BUL 3155
6 Tomas Berdych CZE 3150
7 Milos Raonic CAN 2895
8 David Ferrer ESP 2855
9 Andy Murray GBR 2625
10 Kei Nishikori JPN 2475
11 Jo Wilfried Tsonga FRA 2375
12 Ernests Gulbis LAT 2320

Next in line is Cilic and he is 400 points below Gulbis and so I stop there.

Federer is just 270 points below the cutoff and so will officially qualify on or before USO.
Stan has an inside route, being a GS winner, even if he does not accumulate huge points.
So, we can say with virtual certainty that the top four above will make it (actually the top
two have already officially made it and that is why they are in bold print).

But, beyond that nothing can really be said. It is no longer certain that Berdych will
make it; he looked like a shoe in some weeks ago. The only thing that I venture to
speculate is that Kei won't make it with that kind of health issues.

We need to show the door to 3 more people. My preference, not prediction, is to throw
out Berdych, Raonic and Ferrer

Stan is basically in as well, and not just based on his GS win. The cut off is never above 4000 points in the end. Unless those guys in the 5-10 range will start winning all the big events left.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

The final cut off for WTF in 2013 was 3330 points.

I think this year's cut off will definitely be higher and probably closer to 4000 points.
But, Stan will make the cut off is not in any doubt, both directly and indirectly.

 

[herios]

The final cut off for WTF in 2013 was 3330 points.

I think this year's cut off will definitely be higher and probably closer to 4000 points.
But, Stan will make the cut off is not in any doubt, both directly and indirectly.

Yeah, I would bet around 3500-3800 points, not higher than that.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

At the beginning of the year, dog and fog were contenders. Now they found their place.

 

[herios]

At the beginning of the year, dog and fog were contenders. Now they found their place.

And suddenly Tsonga, who was not even close to the top 10, cannot be counted out. If his form stays, he will be bypassing a few more.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

With today's win over Milos, Roger Federer has officially qualified for WTF. :clap