The Battle for YE #1

[Front242]

Congratulations to Novak - he's all but clinched the year-end #1 (he's have to lose every round-robin match and Roger win it all) and, I think, deserves it.

Now back to reality, Novak - go be a father for a week or two before getting read for the WTF.

He can try being a father for 2 weeks in that case as he'll miss the tournament :snigger

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Congratulations to Novak - he's all but clinched the year-end #1 (he's have to lose every round-robin match and Roger win it all) and, I think, deserves it.

Now back to reality, Novak - go be a father for a week or two before getting read for the WTF.

No.

Suppose, Novak wins two RR matches and ends up 2nd in his group and Roger wins all
his RR matches ends 1st in his group. Then, they meet in semifinals. If Roger can win that
semifinal match and then hoist the WTF trophy and then win two live rubbers in DCF,
then Roger can end up as #1 (Actually, it is not necessary for Roger to beat Novak in SF,
but Novak must lose in SF. In order for that, Novak should finish #1 in his group with
only 2 RR wins).

But, the spirit of your post is indeed correct. Roger has extremely negligible
chances to make it to YE #1 now.

 

[masterclass]

I calculated that Roger has a maximum 1625 points available to him him, and I subtracted Novak's lead. It translates better as him needing 3 wins in London, if he wins the final today.

Stats aren't my forte... :cover

Roger can gain max 1725, for a total of 10425, so Nole w/2013 DC Final points dropped at 9860 needs only 565 points (tie goes to Nole) to clinch in London. Any of these will do it for Nole:

3 RR wins
2 RR wins + SF win
1 RR win + SF win (highly unlikely scenario, but possible)

Historically, in 7 previous year end championships, Nole has won 3 titles (2008, 2012, 2013), and not won more than 2 matches in the other 4 years. So, which will it be this year, feast or famine?

Respectfully,
masterclass

 

[GameSetAndMath]

The good thing is that now WTF has become "t........... proof". Novak would want to win every match he could as he can clinch YE #1 if he wins three RR matches in a jiffy. Roger would also want to win every RR match, as he needs every drop of point to keep his negligible chances alive. Note that if Roger loses one RR match, then two RR wins by Novak is sufficient for Novak to clinch YE #1.

The other six players are all fighting to get the coveted #4 ranking going into the AO of
next year and so no incentive for them either to do anything special.

So, we don't need to question the integrity of any match in the WTF. this year.

 

[JesuslookslikeBorg]

or djokovic n fedster in same group, djoko has a surprise 1st match defeat then Federer also beats him, thus meaning djokovic knocked out wtf after 2 rr matches...

..then djokovic is in a huff and loses 3rd rr match lol. quite unlikely but it could happen I suppose.

plus the added fun of federers potential 225pts in dc final to keep the whole thing raging on for abit longer.

 

[Murat Baslamisli]

or djokovic n fedster in same group, djoko has a surprise 1st match defeat then Federer also beats him, thus meaning djokovic knocked out wtf after 2 rr matches...

..then djokovic is in a huff and loses 3rd rr match lol. quite unlikely but it could happen I suppose.

plus the added fun of federers potential 225pts in dc final to keep the whole thing raging on for abit longer.

No chance of that...

 

[Kieran]

Unfortunately, the two protagonists will be kept apart but it would make for an interesting draw if they weren't!

 

[JesuslookslikeBorg]

oh i didn't know seeds 1 and 2 were kept in different groups, same as other tourneys then.

 

[DarthFed]

Yea each set of 2 is split up. One group gets #3, the other gets #4, one gets #5, the other gets #6 and so on

 

[Billie]

^^ That format is the only one that makes sense, frankly.

 

[BalaryKar]

Forget the YE1, Fed should be happy to settle for WTF win. He should not even think of that as going by form its a difficult task for him to even win WTF.

 

[masterclass]

I'm hopeful that with the week off this year between Paris and London that all players will be healthy and ready to perform their best in the World Tour Finals.

Right now, the questionable ones are Cilic (carrying a minor right arm injury), and perhaps Nishikori (back). Murray seemed tired as well a few of the other players in the push to London.

David Ferrer is first alternate in the event a player is injured and cannot play.

Respectfully,
masterclass

 

[Federberg]

How's this for quirky. If Federer were to win the WTF and still be within sight of getting YE#1, it might be that he'll need to tank (would never happen!) his doubles match in the DC to get YE#1. Why? Because the ATP don't grant ranking points for dead rubber matches. So if he and Stan both win their opening singles matches, they would need to lose the doubles for Roger's final match to be live.

 

[nehmeth]

I'm hopeful that with the week off this year between Paris and London that all players will be healthy and ready to perform their best in the World Tour Finals.

Right now, the questionable ones are Cilic (carrying a minor right arm injury), and perhaps Nishikori (back). Murray seemed tired as well a few of the other players in the push to London.

David Ferrer is first alternate in the event a player is injured and cannot play.

I watched Murray in his match with Novak. He seemed to be weighing how much he was willing to put into winning it. He'd already qualified for London and he was looking dog tired from his back to back tourneys this fall.

He should be well rested for the WTF and ready to cap any hopes Roger has of the YE #1

 

[Federberg]

^I agree he'll certainly put up a huge fight. It's a huge match between them. If Roger were to win I believe it will be the first time he's ever been in front in their personal head to head. Personally I don't think it means anything - my views on h2h are well documented - but who knows it might mean something to one or both of them

 

[isabelle]

Nole is the huge fav to win Masters, I don't even imagine him to lose

 

[DarthFed]

He ain't losing to MurrAy here. Kei could be a different story.

 

[Murat Baslamisli]

I honestly do not understand why a pro player should get points for playing a team event like the DC. :nono , and DC have any say regarding who is going to be the year end number 1.

 

[Federberg]

I totally agree. I don't think DC or Olympics should get ranking points at all

 

[JesuslookslikeBorg]

Federer has a chance to be no1 rank early next year but that isn't YE no1 so I won't mention it.