Early AO talk

[herios]

I am not sure if Milos makes it to the QF, but if he meets Rafa there, I am not concerned.
Rafa looked tired in the 3rd set of their match in Doha, which means to me, his conditioning will be a problem in the slam in 3 out of 5.

 

[the AntiPusher]

I am not sure if Milos makes it to the QF, but if he meets Rafa there, I am not concerned.
Rafa looked tired in the 3rd set of their match in Doha, which means to me, his conditioning will be a problem in the slam in 3 out of 5.

We shall see if it happens ..Rafa will take him out in straight sets..once you take away Milos fist serve, he is reduced to being a just a big Stiff

 

[herios]

I am not sure if Milos makes it to the QF, but if he meets Rafa there, I am not concerned.
Rafa looked tired in the 3rd set of their match in Doha, which means to me, his conditioning will be a problem in the slam in 3 out of 5.

We shall see if it happens ..Rafa will take him out in straight sets..once you take away Milos fist serve, he is reduced to being a just a big Stiff

That is why Milos was able to break as many times Rafa recently, using his first serve:s
Milos ROS has improved a lot recently, that is why he is ranked where he is. He is now able to break his opponents, not just take them to a TB.
It was even an analysis on him from this point of view on the ATP site.
I am sure you never read it.

 

[Carol]

Milos has improved whatever you think but to be ranked as #3 without any MS and GS title it's pretty sad

 

[the AntiPusher]

I am not sure if Milos makes it to the QF, but if he meets Rafa there, I am not concerned.
Rafa looked tired in the 3rd set of their match in Doha, which means to me, his conditioning will be a problem in the slam in 3 out of 5.

We shall see if it happens ..Rafa will take him out in straight sets..once you take away Milos fist serve, he is reduced to being a just a big Stiff

That is why Milos was able to break as many times Rafa recently, using his first serve:s
Milos ROS has improved a lot recently, that is why he is ranked where he is. He is now able to break his opponents, not just take them to a TB.
It was even an analysis on him from this point of view on the ATP site.
I am sure you never read it.

Really, I didn't read it..I don't recall seeing it.

 

[the AntiPusher]

Milos has improved whatever you think but to be ranked as #3 without any MS and GS title it's pretty sad

That is pretty sad.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

That's true, but there's still a reason why they're qualifiers, and not in the main draw. Players in the main draw are getting higher quality workouts in Brisbane or elsewhere, or else they're fine-tuning things before the event. It's true qualifiers have a run of form going in, but I bet statistically they're windscreen splatter in the first round, more often than not...

I am not comparing the qualifiers to a random player in main draw. I am looking at the bottom of the pile in the main draw and comparing them to qualifiers. There are 16 qualifiers. Take the worst 16 main draw entries. I have a feeling that even statistically the 16 qualifiers will outperform the worst 16 main draw entries. Let us actually calculate this after the AO is over (in February when Rafa starts playing meaningless clay tourneys in SA ).

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Tonight we will see which players will make it out of the qualifiers, as R3 begins.
Stepanek was the top ranked among them, because he is barely out of the top 100 (currently 102).
Other veterans in the running are Jurgen Melzer and Julien Benneteau. Julien is usually attracted by Roger like a magnet in the slams draws, so I would not be surprised to end up in his bracket again if he wins tonight.

I don't want Julien in Roger's corner. For someone who has never won a title, for some reason he gives lot of headache to Roger often.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

This is Novak's to lose. And no way does he lose to Verdasco - this is Novak's turf!

I think Roger will go down sometime between the 3R and QF. He's had trouble with Berdy and Kei, and even if he gets past them I don't see him beating this version of Andy Murray, not after being off for six months. So I agree with Tignor: Andy in the SF in his quarter.

I also kind of like Tignor's choice of Kyrgios in the next quarter. I just think he's hungry and ready to make some noise and will give Stanimal some of own medicine.

The third quarter is tricky. If Rafa beats Zverev, I think he can take Milos. But I give Rafa maybe a 50-50 chance of beating the young German. If he does, it is Rafa, if not it is Milos, who will pound Zverev to a pulp in the QF (if Alex makes it).

Novak will sail through his quarter. Thiem won't be a challenge. Grigor might put up a fight, but will wilt.

Novak beats Rafa or Milos, Andy beats Kyrgios (or maybe Stan). Novak beats Andy.

I agree with your assessment of third quarter. But my money is on Zverev beating Rafa.
I also agree that Novak will win out his quarter.

Sure, Berdych and Kei have given problems to Roger in the past. But, Berdych is senile
and Kei has some injuries. So, I expect Roger to come through both of them. When Andy
faces Roger, the result would depend upon whether Andy forgets (quite likely) that he is #1
and starts peeing in his pants or not (remembering the humiliation at WTF).

But, I strongly disagree with your prediction about the second quarter. Nick is having some sort of injury got by playing basketball or some other ball. Further, he never performs well in Aus being a home boy (he should take some psychological advice from Samantha Stosure :snicker ). No way that he is reaching SF.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Here are the latest odds after the bookmakers had time to digest the draw. Zverev is given a puncher's chance at the title now. Novak is the favorite by a very slight margin. Eleven players have 1% or more of a chance of winning AO. Here they are.

1. Novak ------- 7/4
2. Andy ---------9/5
HUGE GAP
3. Stan --------- 16
4. Rafa --------- 16
5. Raonic ------- 22
6. Federer ------ 25
Huge Gap
7. Samurai ---- 40
8. Badboy ---- 50
huge gap
9. Baby --------- 66
gap
10. Cough Drop -- 80
11. Zverev ---- 80

 

[Shivashish Sarkar]

I really think Roger's got the toughest draw amongst the Big 4 and understandably so.

 

[Front242]

Milos has improved whatever you think but to be ranked as #3 without any MS and GS title it's pretty sad

He didn't win a single title last year, not even a 250. His ranking is based on consistently going deep in most events. He's kinda like the male Caroline Wozniacki. His main issue is fitness and once he can stay fit, he's definitely gonna start winning titles.

 

[Front242]

Tonight we will see which players will make it out of the qualifiers, as R3 begins.
Stepanek was the top ranked among them, because he is barely out of the top 100 (currently 102).
Other veterans in the running are Jurgen Melzer and Julien Benneteau. Julien is usually attracted by Roger like a magnet in the slams draws, so I would not be surprised to end up in his bracket again if he wins tonight.

I don't want Julien in Roger's corner. For someone who has never won a title, for some reason he gives lot of headache to Roger often.

Benneteau lost in the final round of qualification to Alex Bolt 6-3 7-5 so he's out.

 

[Front242]

Stepanek and the big serving Opelka are through.

 

[El Dude]

Two qualifiers made it: Alex Bolt and 19-year old Alexander Bublik. After Zverev, Fritz, and Rublev, Bublik is the highest ranked player born in 1997, just ahead of Reilly Opelka.

 

[Kieran]

Milos has improved whatever you think but to be ranked as #3 without any MS and GS title it's pretty sad

He didn't win a single title last year, not even a 250. His ranking is based on consistently going deep in most events. He's kinda like the male Caroline Wozniacki. His main issue is fitness and once he can stay fit, he's definitely gonna start winning titles.

Or he's a better version of Berdych, the QF sticky?

 

[El Dude]

I'm not at all convinced that Milos is a future Slam winner, let alone #1. Right now he seems like he's on the fast-track to perennial SecondTierVille: top 10, reaching the QFs and occasionally SFs of Slams, and maybe a Masters or two, but never winning a Slam unless the stars align just right. At 26, he's no longer a baby either.

That said, the stars may align within the next few years as the Big Four fade and the young guys are still maturing. I don't see why Milos couldn't do a Cilic and catch fire at the right moment. But what I don't see is the consistent greatness required to be a true elite.

 

[Shivashish Sarkar]

When will the qualifier opponents for respective players in the first round be announced?

Sent from my Titanium Octane using Tapatalk

 

[Front242]

Milos has improved whatever you think but to be ranked as #3 without any MS and GS title it's pretty sad

He didn't win a single title last year, not even a 250. His ranking is based on consistently going deep in most events. He's kinda like the male Caroline Wozniacki. His main issue is fitness and once he can stay fit, he's definitely gonna start winning titles.

Or he's a better version of Berdych, the QF sticky?

Yup, sounds about right to me. Or Tsonga.

 

[herios]

Milos has improved whatever you think but to be ranked as #3 without any MS and GS title it's pretty sad

He didn't win a single title last year, not even a 250. His ranking is based on consistently going deep in most events. He's kinda like the male Caroline Wozniacki. His main issue is fitness and once he can stay fit, he's definitely gonna start winning titles.

Wrong. He won Brisbane, kicking Roger's butt.