Early AO talk

[Carol]

I love this picture

 

[Murat Baslamisli]

Roger plays J. Melzer, then the winner between Rubin and Fratangelo

Meltzer is a tricky lefty who made it to top 10. Not your regular qualifier. Sure he is far from his best but I still wish Roger played a REAL qualifier for his opener, 17 years old and ranked 4568 in the world.

 

[Fiero425]

Roger plays J. Melzer, then the winner between Rubin and Fratangelo

Meltzer is a tricky lefty who made it to top 10. Not your regular qualifier. Sure he is far from his best but I still wish Roger played a REAL qualifier for his opener, 17 years old and ranked 4568 in the world.

He could be in trouble! We saw what Stepanek & Bourgue did to Andy last season @ the FO in the 1st 2 Rds! :angel:

 

[Shivashish Sarkar]

I think the vast majority of Slam draws range from "pretty hard" to "really hard," with occasional outliers of "getting by with a little help from my friends" to "f$*k! Three of the Big Four in a row!!!"

The point being, no one has an "easy" draw. Very occasionally you'll get a situation like Novak had last year at the US Open, when he had the following:

Janowicz
Vesely (wo)
Youzhny (retired in 1st set)
Edmund
Tsonga (retired after 2nd set)
Monfils
Wawrinka (lost)

I can't think of an easier draw in memory: a head-case in the 1st round, a walkover and the withdrawal in the 2nd and 3rd rounds, a young and inexperienced player in the 4th round, Tsonga retiring in the QF, erratic Monfils in the SF. But that's pretty rare.

I don't think Novak will have such a vulnerable time again for a long time.

 

[Shivashish Sarkar]

Roger plays J. Melzer, then the winner between Rubin and Fratangelo

Meltzer is a tricky lefty who made it to top 10. Not your regular qualifier. Sure he is far from his best but I still wish Roger played a REAL qualifier for his opener, 17 years old and ranked 4568 in the world.

He could be in trouble! We saw what Stepanek & Bourgue did to Andy last season @ the FO in the 1st 2 Rds! :angel:

Roger isn't someone to get into trouble in like that, trust me! Right now, he's in touch!

 

[the AntiPusher]

I think the vast majority of Slam draws range from "pretty hard" to "really hard," with occasional outliers of "getting by with a little help from my friends" to "f$*k! Three of the Big Four in a row!!!"

The point being, no one has an "easy" draw. Very occasionally you'll get a situation like Novak had last year at the US Open, when he had the following:

Janowicz
Vesely (wo)
Youzhny (retired in 1st set)
Edmund
Tsonga (retired after 2nd set)
Monfils
Wawrinka (lost)

I can't think of an easier draw in memory: a head-case in the 1st round, a walkover and the withdrawal in the 2nd and 3rd rounds, a young and inexperienced player in the 4th round, Tsonga retiring in the QF, erratic Monfils in the SF. But that's pretty rare.

Agreed..this was looked upon from the offset as being a somewhat troubling draw until what you explained happened..I think Novak had to be kicking himself for letting that opportunity slip by

 

[El Dude]

You could also argue that the ease of his draw actually hurt him when facing Stan: he wasn't really challenged until he got to Stan, aside from a moment or two with Gael. And then he faced the Stanimal and couldn't muster his A-game because he hadn't needed it all tournament.

 

[Carol]

And what about Wimbledon? did Novak lost against Querrey because he won RG for the first time having one more week between both tournaments than some years ego? Roger did in 2009 and also won W. And the Olympics? because he had Delpo as the first opponent? Nope, they simply played better than him same like Wawrinka in the USO and RG 2015

 

[Front242]

He was off the special sauce half the year. It's plain as day obvious.

 

[Carol]

I would say most the rest of the tour was off for almost two years and Novak took a lot of advantage about it

 

[Murat Baslamisli]

Meltzer is a tricky lefty who made it to top 10. Not your regular qualifier. Sure he is far from his best but I still wish Roger played a REAL qualifier for his opener, 17 years old and ranked 4568 in the world.

He could be in trouble! We saw what Stepanek & Bourgue did to Andy last season @ the FO in the 1st 2 Rds! :angel:

Roger WASN'T someone to get into trouble in like that, trust me! Right now, he's in touch!

Hey Shivashish , I fixed it for you there

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Ok. Here is my (realistic) prediction before the first ball is struck. Not to be construed as what I want to happen.

1st Quarter: Andy (defeats Roger)
2nd Quarter: Cilic (defeats Nick)
3rd Quarter: Milos (defeats Zverev)
4th Quarter: Novak (defats Goffin)

SF1: Andy defeats Cilic
SF2: Nole defeats Milos

F: Andy defeats Nole.

 

[Backhand_DTL]

I think the vast majority of Slam draws range from "pretty hard" to "really hard," with occasional outliers of "getting by with a little help from my friends" to "f$*k! Three of the Big Four in a row!!!"

The point being, no one has an "easy" draw. Very occasionally you'll get a situation like Novak had last year at the US Open, when he had the following:

Janowicz
Vesely (wo)
Youzhny (retired in 1st set)
Edmund
Tsonga (retired after 2nd set)
Monfils
Wawrinka (lost)

I can't think of an easier draw in memory: a head-case in the 1st round, a walkover and the withdrawal in the 2nd and 3rd rounds, a young and inexperienced player in the 4th round, Tsonga retiring in the QF, erratic Monfils in the SF. But that's pretty rare.

For me there's a difference between the toughness of the draw and the actual road to a final/title which is what ultimately matters. The draw itself will rarely be initially easy. Only when there's a clear difference in difficulty between the 3rd and 4th seeds (like when David Ferrer was ranked there) and within the 5 to 8 seeds and someone is supposed to play the "weak" options in the quarters and semis without notable tests before you could call that an easy draw.

But draws looking tough on paper can fall apart with some upsets or under certain circumstances which for example is something Novak definitely benefitted from at the US Open and to a lesser extent at the French Open so someone can end up with quite a favourable way to the final despite having got a tough draw on paper at the start.

But Novak having significantly more wins and matches against Top 10 opponents than Andy last year despite noticeably fewer matches played overall indicate that his draws rarely fell apart completely so it's a bit laughable when fans of Andy complain about Novak always getting it easy recently.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Here are the latest odds after the qualifiers are placed into the draw and at about 2 hours before the start of the tourney.

1. Novak ------- 7/4
2. Andy ---------15/8
HUGE GAP
3. Stan --------- 16
4. Rafa --------- 16
5. Raonic ------- 22
6. Federer ------ 25
Huge Gap
7. Samurai ---- 40
8. Badboy ---- 50
9. Baby --------- 50
Gap
10. Cough Drop -- 66
11. Zverev ---- 80

I will update the odds after each round is completed.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

If you have not entered in the racquet bracket contest of tennis channel, you still have 1.5 hours more to do so. Entries must be filed before the first ball is struck.

 

[the AntiPusher]

Ok. Here is my (realistic) prediction before the first ball is struck. Not to be construed as what I want to happen.

1st Quarter: Andy (defeats Roger)
2nd Quarter: Cilic (defeats Nick)
3rd Quarter: Milos (defeats Zverev)
4th Quarter: Novak (defats Goffin)

SF1: Andy defeats Cilic
SF2: Nole defeats Milos

F: Andy defeats Nole.

If Andy defeats Novak at AO, it would crush him mentally.

 

[El Dude]

Ok. Here is my (realistic) prediction before the first ball is struck. Not to be construed as what I want to happen.

1st Quarter: Andy (defeats Roger)
2nd Quarter: Cilic (defeats Nick)
3rd Quarter: Milos (defeats Zverev)
4th Quarter: Novak (defats Goffin)

SF1: Andy defeats Cilic
SF2: Nole defeats Milos

F: Andy defeats Nole.

My prediction is similar, but slightly different (I now we're on Day 2, but so what?):

Q1: Andy (defeats Roger)
Q2: Nick (defeats Khachanov or Sock...I know)
Q3: Milos (defeats Zverev)
Q4: Novak (defeats Grigor)

SF1: Andy defeats Nick
SF2: Novak defeats Milos

F: Novak defeats Andy

 

[El Dude]

As I said, I also think there's a decent chance for big upsets along the way. For instance, I'm predicting one of Sock or Khachanov defeats Jo-Willie and then Cilic. Then there's Zverev over Rafa. I also think that either Grigor or Milos could beat Novak.

But if it comes down to Andy and Novak in the final, my money is on the Serb.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Ok. Here is my (realistic) prediction before the first ball is struck. Not to be construed as what I want to happen.

1st Quarter: Andy (defeats Roger)
2nd Quarter: Cilic (defeats Nick)
3rd Quarter: Milos (defeats Zverev)
4th Quarter: Novak (defats Goffin)

SF1: Andy defeats Cilic
SF2: Nole defeats Milos

F: Andy defeats Nole.

My prediction is similar, but slightly different (I now we're on Day 2, but so what?):

Q1: Andy (defeats Roger)
Q2: Nick (defeats Khachanov or Sock...I know)
Q3: Milos (defeats Zverev)
Q4: Novak (defeats Grigor)

SF1: Andy defeats Nick
SF2: Novak defeats Milos

F: Novak defeats Andy

Grigor wll meet Novak in R16, if they both get there. So, your QF prediction is off.

 

[Shivashish Sarkar]

Ok. Here is my (realistic) prediction before the first ball is struck. Not to be construed as what I want to happen.

1st Quarter: Andy (defeats Roger)
2nd Quarter: Cilic (defeats Nick)
3rd Quarter: Milos (defeats Zverev)
4th Quarter: Novak (defats Goffin)

SF1: Andy defeats Cilic
SF2: Nole defeats Milos

F: Andy defeats Nole.

My prediction is similar, but slightly different (I now we're on Day 2, but so what?):

Q1: Andy (defeats Roger)
Q2: Nick (defeats Khachanov or Sock...I know)
Q3: Milos (defeats Zverev)
Q4: Novak (defeats Grigor)

SF1: Andy defeats Nick
SF2: Novak defeats Milos

F: Novak defeats Andy

Grigor wll meet Novak in R16, if they both get there. So, your QF prediction is off.

Round 1 is over. Do you have the latest odds for AO champion?