Australian Open [Men] - Grand Slam

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the AntiPusher

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I picked Medvedev to win it months ago and said he'll either make the final or win it. Time will tell but 90% of tennis.com have gone with Djokovic. The faster court speed (if it still plays faster than the USO) will make Medvedev's serve difficult to return which will be a big advantage.
Question..no debate.. would you feel the same way about Medvedev chances if Rafa would have closed him out in straight sets which we all know he should have at the USO.
 

Front242

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Question..no debate.. would you feel the same way about Medvedev chances if Rafa would have closed him out in straight sets which we all know he should have at the USO.

Yeah I would 100% as it's a totally different court. I'd have picked Medvedev to win the USO final also if it was played in the daytime when the courts are much faster. The whole returning from New Jersey lark doesn't work anywhere near as well in the daytime.
 
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Moxie

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Yeah I would 100% as it's a totally different court. I'd have picked Medvedev to win the USO final also if it was played in the daytime when the courts are much faster. The whole returning from New Jersey lark doesn't work anywhere near as well in the daytime.
But Medvedev returns from New Jersey, too.
 
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Front242

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But Medvedev returns from New Jersey, too.

It's a stupid strategy by both tbh but the more impotant thing to note is Medvedev would be very hard to break on a faster court assuming he serves well or the daytime matches at the USO which are way faster. Not having to worry too much about holding his own serve takes the pressure off and makes him more likely to break his opponent.
 
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Moxie

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It's a stupid strategy by both tbh but the more impotant thing to note is Medvedev would be very hard to break on a faster court assuming he serves well or the daytime matches at the USO which are way faster. Not having to worry too much about holding his own serve takes the pressure off and makes him more likely to break his opponent.
But Nadal beat Medvedev in the daytime in Montreal, which is listed as slightly faster than the USO in the data I found from 2017, and he beat him 3 and love. Any prediction that Medvedev would win that match prior to it and not in hindsight would have been wishful thinking, wouldn't you say?
 

GameSetAndMath

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I don't think Med will win this AO. I also don't give much chance for Ralph. Novak is the obvious favorite. Tits might outperform other youngsters here.
 
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GameSetAndMath

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It is time to consult the bookies.

CONTENDERS:

1. Novak 6/5 ~ 45.45%
2. Ralph 9/2 ~ 18.18%
3. Med 8 ~ 11.11%
4. Fed 10 ~ 9.1%

PRETENDERS:

5. Tits 16 ~ 6.47%
6. Thiem 25 ~ 3.85%
7. Nick 33 ~ 2.94%
8. Sasha / Shapo 50 ~ 1.96%

DISHONORABLE MENTIONS

10. Stan / Rublev 66 ~ 1.49%
12. RBA 80 ~ 1.23%
13. Grigor / Berrettini 100 ~ 1%
 
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GameSetAndMath

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Fed up on sunday night around 11 p.m. edt on RLA (following Osaka and then Rena).
 

Moxie

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I don't think Med will win this AO. I also don't give much chance for Ralph. Novak is the obvious favorite. Tits might outperform other youngsters here.
Voice of reason, but also not going out on a limb. Sure, Novak is the favorite.
 

tenisplayrla08

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Welp. Here we go again. As I just said in the women's discussion. I need some excitement. Maybe I'm bored with my day to day right now. I don't know. But I'm looking for the Chung run to the semis from a couple years ago. A Cecchinato at the 2018 French sort of surprise.

Yes. Novak is the favorite. Yes. Nadal is the second favorite. Tennis mag (dot com) didn't mention Medvedev as a favorite. I found it a little shocking. He backed up Canada and Cincy and the US Open with everything after the US Open. This is still a hard court. He's entered the first stage of his prime. He's a favorite. Fed is a favorite. But. I mean. While Fed has won this thing 2 out of the last 3 years and I'm inclined to think he does better than he did last year. It's Djokovic and then everyone else.

BUT I'm curious to see how the whole smoke factor plays into this tournament. For Djokovic. For Fed. For everyone.

Can Stanimal conjure up a deep run at the sight of one of his former victories and some of his toughest battles with Novak. He wasn't mentioned in the dark horse category because of that stupid rule that says you have to be outside the top 20. I mean... in today's game, everyone not in the big 3 is a dark horse. You can at least include those outside the top 10.

A little more analytical.... I'm not as high on Tsitispas as everyone else is. One semifinal with a tight win over Fed a favorite does not make. Obviously he's good. Huge future. Possibly the best of the young crop (though I think that's FAA. Or at least I'm hoping it's FAA over Zverev or Tsitsipas.) But even if it's not one of the Big 3 or Medvedev taking this title, I don't think it's Tsitsipas. Maybe it's because I haven't become of fan of his yet. Maybe it goes back to me looking for some excitement. I feel like picking Tsitsipas is just looking at last year's AO and going with who got close. It's not dumb. But it lacks imagination.

I'm still a Coric fan even if he's doing everything he can to make me put him in the Gulbis category. So I'm hoping he surprises me here. I'm not optimistic. But I'm hoping. I'm looking for FAA to make himself heard. I like Tennis dot com putting Moutet in the dark horses. I can't say I really care about him. And he's not entirely unknown. But it's a bit out there. I mean. It was just one "expert." So there's that. But still. At least someone is trying to find someone "new."

I don't want to become one of these people that I run into who barely pay attention to tennis who are like, "I just want someone new to win something. I'm tired of Serena and Fed winning everything." As if Fed hasn't only won 5 slams since 2009. I mean. I get their point. I'm fine with Djokovic winning again. I mean. I'm not. I need Fed to extend his lead for a another couple months or year or so. But I'm just looking for someone to break out. Maybe someone I've never heard of (which would be hard because I pay way too close attention to professional tennis). I don't need them to win it. I'd like to say that I feel like 10 men could win this like I think 10 women could win it. But I don't. I will continue to say we just don't know and anything can happen and if a rando gets to the final against Djokovic, well they're there, and anything can happen. Surprises are... surprises. When the "old guard" changes, it happens in an instant. I can't call it. I've accepted it. I keep thinking Nadal and Djokovic will hit the wall Fed hit around 33. But they don't have themselves, but 5 years younger to contend with. But I'm thinking Djokovic takes this one. Though... reading the tennis dot com expert picks piece I was just like... yes, I'm inclined to say Fed is 38 and is not gonna win this thing. But something about him winning it 2 straight years just 2 years ago.... I mean. You cannot count him out. That's my inner Fed fanboy forever talking. But I mean. He's not wrong.
 

mrzz

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Welp. Here we go again. As I just said in the women's discussion. I need some excitement. Maybe I'm bored with my day to day right now. I don't know. But I'm looking for the Chung run to the semis from a couple years ago. A Cecchinato at the 2018 French sort of surprise.

Yes. Novak is the favorite. Yes. Nadal is the second favorite. Tennis mag (dot com) didn't mention Medvedev as a favorite. I found it a little shocking. He backed up Canada and Cincy and the US Open with everything after the US Open. This is still a hard court. He's entered the first stage of his prime. He's a favorite. Fed is a favorite. But. I mean. While Fed has won this thing 2 out of the last 3 years and I'm inclined to think he does better than he did last year. It's Djokovic and then everyone else.

BUT I'm curious to see how the whole smoke factor plays into this tournament. For Djokovic. For Fed. For everyone.

Can Stanimal conjure up a deep run at the sight of one of his former victories and some of his toughest battles with Novak. He wasn't mentioned in the dark horse category because of that stupid rule that says you have to be outside the top 20. I mean... in today's game, everyone not in the big 3 is a dark horse. You can at least include those outside the top 10.

A little more analytical.... I'm not as high on Tsitispas as everyone else is. One semifinal with a tight win over Fed a favorite does not make. Obviously he's good. Huge future. Possibly the best of the young crop (though I think that's FAA. Or at least I'm hoping it's FAA over Zverev or Tsitsipas.) But even if it's not one of the Big 3 or Medvedev taking this title, I don't think it's Tsitsipas. Maybe it's because I haven't become of fan of his yet. Maybe it goes back to me looking for some excitement. I feel like picking Tsitsipas is just looking at last year's AO and going with who got close. It's not dumb. But it lacks imagination.

I'm still a Coric fan even if he's doing everything he can to make me put him in the Gulbis category. So I'm hoping he surprises me here. I'm not optimistic. But I'm hoping. I'm looking for FAA to make himself heard. I like Tennis dot com putting Moutet in the dark horses. I can't say I really care about him. And he's not entirely unknown. But it's a bit out there. I mean. It was just one "expert." So there's that. But still. At least someone is trying to find someone "new."

I don't want to become one of these people that I run into who barely pay attention to tennis who are like, "I just want someone new to win something. I'm tired of Serena and Fed winning everything." As if Fed hasn't only won 5 slams since 2009. I mean. I get their point. I'm fine with Djokovic winning again. I mean. I'm not. I need Fed to extend his lead for a another couple months or year or so. But I'm just looking for someone to break out. Maybe someone I've never heard of (which would be hard because I pay way too close attention to professional tennis). I don't need them to win it. I'd like to say that I feel like 10 men could win this like I think 10 women could win it. But I don't. I will continue to say we just don't know and anything can happen and if a rando gets to the final against Djokovic, well they're there, and anything can happen. Surprises are... surprises. When the "old guard" changes, it happens in an instant. I can't call it. I've accepted it. I keep thinking Nadal and Djokovic will hit the wall Fed hit around 33. But they don't have themselves, but 5 years younger to contend with. But I'm thinking Djokovic takes this one. Though... reading the tennis dot com expert picks piece I was just like... yes, I'm inclined to say Fed is 38 and is not gonna win this thing. But something about him winning it 2 straight years just 2 years ago.... I mean. You cannot count him out. That's my inner Fed fanboy forever talking. But I mean. He's not wrong.

I always enjoy the flow of honesty from your posts.
 

kskate2

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Smoke won't be much of a factor. They'll close the roof(s) turning the whole thing into an indoor event.
 

Front242

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But Nadal beat Medvedev in the daytime in Montreal, which is listed as slightly faster than the USO in the data I found from 2017, and he beat him 3 and love. Any prediction that Medvedev would win that match prior to it and not in hindsight would have been wishful thinking, wouldn't you say?

There's no way that court is faster. Maybe it was 15 years ago but your eyes can tell watching on tv it's nowhere near as fast. None of my Medvedev predictions were after his amazing summer results. I've been touting him as the next big thing since early last year. Seeing him beat Novak on clay then really made my mind up. The USO was actually pretty fast last year in the daytime and WAY faster than Montreal.
 
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Moxie

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Smoke won't be much of a factor. They'll close the roof(s) turning the whole thing into an indoor event.
Exactly the point...turns it into an indoor event, for some people. I was wondering about this, as in: there's a rule when they close the roof for heat, I believe. When do they close it for poor air quality? Is there a rule? Plus, I think only 3 stadiums have roofs, so doesn't that segregate who gets to play in "good" air? No so simple as "smoke won't be much of a factor," I don't think.
 

Moxie

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There's no way that court is faster. Maybe it was 15 years ago but your eyes can tell watching on tv it's nowhere near as fast. None of my Medvedev predictions were after his amazing summer results. I've been touting his as the next big thing since early last year. Seeing him beat Novak on clay then really made my mind up. The USO was actually pretty fast last year in the daytime and WAY faster than Montreal.
You can see here from Hawkeye CPI 2017 (because that was when the men played in Montreal, and I don't see numbers for 2019.) Your notion that your eyes can tell court speed on TV better than the numbers...that's too much, I think. Anyway, I hadn't noticed that you'd started championing Medvedev as early as last Spring, but good for you. Still, it would be a big leap to have picked him to beat Nadal at the USO, even if it were daytime.
 

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Exactly the point...turns it into an indoor event, for some people. I was wondering about this, as in: there's a rule when they close the roof for heat, I believe. When do they close it for poor air quality? Is there a rule? Plus, I think only 3 stadiums have roofs, so doesn't that segregate who gets to play in "good" air? No so simple as "smoke won't be much of a factor," I don't think.

From the AO website:

The AO Air Quality Policy is based on a scaled Air Quality Rating determined by analysing concentrations of air pollutants at Melbourne Park. The Air Quality Rating scale runs from 1-5.

Level 1: Good playing conditions.

Level 2: Moderate playing conditions.

Level 3: Air quality may affect sensitive groups

Sensitive groups – those with pre-existing medical conditions (for example respiratory illness, asthma, heart conditions, elderly, and people who are pregnant) - should minimise time outside. Individuals suffering any form of respiratory distress should seek medical advice.

Level 4: Elevated air pollution.
Conditions monitored closely. Matches may be suspended. Sensitive groups – those with pre-existing medical conditions (for example respiratory illness, asthma, heart conditions, elderly, and people who are pregnant) - should minimise time outside. Individuals suffering any form of respiratory distress should seek medical advice.

Level 5: Air Quality Policy activated. Details:

> Matches in progress on outdoor courts will continue until the end of an even number of games in that set (or completion of tiebreak), then matches will be suspended.

> Where play has commenced on an arena court with a roof open, the match will continue until the completion of an even number of games or tiebreak, then the roof will close and matches will be suspended until the Air Quality Rating in the arena drops below 5. The roof will then remain closed for the remainder of the match.

> Air quality assessment will take place continually throughout the day, and any decision on suspension or resumption of play will take into account advice from onsite medical experts, visibility, changes to weather forecast, and any other factors deemed relevant.

> Sensitive groups – those with pre-existing medical conditions (for example respiratory illness, asthma, heart conditions, elderly, and people who are pregnant) - should minimise time outside. Individuals suffering any form of respiratory distress should seek medical advice.
 
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