Australian Open [Men] - Grand Slam

[Moxie]

The main problem with Nadal's draw is that it up until R3 is too easy for him:

It starts with Dellien, who is a clay courter, career high around #70, being solid is his thing. Worst, the guy is completely out of shape, have been losing a lot lately and just lost in the R1 of a challenger 0 and 1.

Then winner of Delbonis and Sousa. Both can play well but both are completely out of shape. Sousa is a guy that could give him problems if in shape, but guess he won 1 or 2 matches only in the last six months. R3 it is some qualifier or PCB...

Then all of a sudden is a complete upturn. Kyrgios or Kachanov, and then Thiem (watch out for FAA or Anderson). The transition will probably kill him.

I don't buy this line of thinking for Nadal at this point in time. He's played a lot of tennis and had some tough matches already leading in, so a few light rounds will be better rather than worse.

 

[Bonaca]

Nadal has the toughest draw by far. Having Kygrios in R4, Thiem in Q4 and Medvedev in SF - has to be the three toughest possible matches in a row. Even if he gets through one, it creates more wear for the next one and so on. Obviously, if he gets through them all, he will definitely be battered physically - considering these could be three 5 setters in a row. So a UsOpen 2018 type situation for Nadal where he succumbs to injury.

That being said , Novak Djokovic should send Rafa a belated holiday present. Nadal has a MUCH BETTER record against the new gen players than Novak does. And it seems in having Thiem, Medvedev and even Stan on his side of the draw, Rafa's made Novak's job much easier.
The disparity in records is quite stark. Nadal is 21-8 and Djokovic is 12-10 in h2h with the next gen players below.
So while Rafa struggles against Novak, he handles the potential threats to Novak far better than the Serb himself does.

Nadal
Thiem: 9-4
Krygios: 4-3
Medvedev: 3-0
Tsitsipas: 5-1
Overall: 21-8

Djokovic
Thiem: 6-4
Kyrgios: 0-2
Medvedev: 4-2
Tsitsipas: 2-2
Overall: 12- 10

What about Clowns back injury or Austrians level this year so far? Possible they will not even met Nadal, let alone test him.
Daniil yes, but he could be softened up enough with his tough draw.
Nadal should be able to reach F.

 

[rafanoy1992]

I actually do not mind Nadal facing Medvedev in the SF. I think Nadal matches up well with Medvedev when Nadal is focus and just playing his own game. Even though their US Open final encounter did went to 5 sets, Nadal was leading 2 sets to love and a break in the third. He just got nervous and Medvedev just took it and raised his game up.

It is why if Nadal and Medvedev do face each other in the SF, it comes down on how well Nadal is playing (obviously!) AND how well Nadal is physically. If Nadal is playing well AND is relative fresh physically, then I see Nadal reaching the final. If one of the factors is off, then Medvedev will win the match.

 

[Jelenafan]

It’s always Player X has the toughest draw then Player Y gets upset and suddenly Player Z has the toughest draw in hindsight.

 

[Moxie]

It’s always Player X has the toughest draw then Player Y gets upset and suddenly Player Z has the toughest draw in hindsight.

This. Kind of drives me crazy when Player X's draw opens up, then everyone says he had an easy draw. The draw is only a set of possibilities, at this point.

 

[Moxie]

What about Clowns back injury or Austrians level this year so far? Possible they will not even met Nadal, let alone test him.
Daniil yes, but he could be softened up enough with his tough draw.
Nadal should be able to reach F.

Thiem's level is a big question mark, for sure. He was on fire in the last portion of last year, until he wasn't, and he didn't really impress at the ATP Cup. Nick has only ever made one QF ('15) at the AO, and 1 x 4th R ('17.) Last year he lost in the 1st round, and besides his most recent back issue, he's had a laundry list of injuries since the USO. Medvedev could meet Stan in his 1/8th. I don't think Stan wins another major, but I've said he can still play spoiler.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

I hate that impeachment trial happens during the same two weeks as AO. Even if I take two weeks off from work (which I cannot), due to huge time difference, I have to be up 24 hours a day to catch up on both entertainment events.

 

[the AntiPusher]

Nick withdrew from his last scheduled match at ATP Cup with injury (back, I think,) and KK lost his first match this week in NZ to Millman, even though KK was the #3 seed. Also, he's never beaten Rafa. They're neither one of them much of a threat to Rafa, IMO, in their respective current states.

Moxiem go back to US Open 2018..go back and check Rafa's draw..the Russian that name begins with B silent KK, Thiem .. Rafa's knees were grind to the bone by the time he got to Delpo..Rafa didn't play again or a full tournament until AO 19

 

[Moxie]

Moxiem go back to US Open 2018..go back and check Rafa's draw..the Russian that name begins with B silent KK, Thiem .. Rafa's knees were grind to the bone by the time he got to Delpo..Rafa didn't play again or a full tournament until AO 19

I'm not saying he's not a threat, but past doesn't dictate present. Look at where they both are.

 

[Ricardo]

I don't buy this line of thinking for Nadal at this point in time. He's played a lot of tennis and had some tough matches already leading in, so a few light rounds will be better rather than worse.

Moxie disagrees because she has played high level competition so she knows all the ins and outs of what a competitor actually needs.

 

[brokenshoelace]

BB..There's only one true gatekeeper to Roger's Legacy..Novak.

The same guy who's beaten Roger in countless slam matches and thus preventing him from winning majors? Yeah, Novak really was a gatekeeper to Roger's legacy when he beat him in 3 Wimbledon finals and a US Open final, not to mention so many semi finals.

What a fucking idiot.

 

[brokenshoelace]

Facing either Khachanov or Kyrgios in the 4th round is not too bad for Nadal as it might sharpen his mind a little bit. In my opinion, I would rather have Nadal face Kyrgios than Khachanov in the 4th round. Kyrgios is definitely more dangerous than Khachanov BUT he will play fast tennis so Nadal will not have to run a lot during the rallies. The main problem will be the potential QF match with Thiem. Thiem makes Nadal work physically so even if Nadal wins in 4 sets, he will be physically tired after the match. If Thiem somehow loses before the QF, then I like Nadal's chances in the SF even it is against Medvedev. For Nadal, it is all about being physically fresh at the business end of the slam.

I do pray that he leaves the Australian Open injury free! He has enough injuries he got from the AO.

Yeah I agree about Thiem. It's one of those matches that will almost surely be a physical battle irrespective of who wins. Hell, Nadal could win in 3 sets and the match would still take over 3 hours.

 

[brokenshoelace]

Moxie disagrees because she has played high level competition so she knows all the ins and outs of what a competitor actually needs.

And whoever stated the opposite point of view has played high level competition and knows all the ins and outs of what a competitor actually needs? I don't follow this line of thinking.

 

[mrzz]

I don't buy this line of thinking for Nadal at this point in time. He's played a lot of tennis and had some tough matches already leading in, so a few light rounds will be better rather than worse.

He can adapt, that is for sure, and to save energy is always good. But anyone will have trouble facing a complete change in playing level. But, yes, the way I phrased it probably sounded like a bigger deal than it actually is. But, remember, margins are small, and you know my opinion is that the big 3 simply don't have anymore a margin (level wise at least) comparing to the rest of top 10.

 

[the AntiPusher]

I'm not saying he's not a threat, but past doesn't dictate present. Look at where they both are.

Sorry for the type oh.. my point is being misunderstood.. Silent KK’s game is a very punishing game which takes a toll on Rafa. Yes, I think Nadal will win but at what price and what will the condition of his body for the remainder of the tournament. Tented or Carol may knows what I am referencing.

 

[isabelle]

Meddi'll be the winner according to Big Mac

 

[Front242]

Meddi'll be the winner according to Big Mac

I picked Medvedev to win it months ago and said he'll either make the final or win it. Time will tell but 90% of tennis.com have gone with Djokovic. The faster court speed (if it still plays faster than the USO) will make Medvedev's serve difficult to return which will be a big advantage.

 

[Murat Baslamisli]

Qualifiers are complaining about the air quality. I wonder how that will affect players. Some are more prone to quitting than others...

 

[Andy22]

Just as long Djokovic wins AO and Federer I'm happy with RG being the next major that would be a better place for nadal to get the record but Nadal can still win the AO with a bit of luck. Its only really Djokovic that has a chance of beating goat Nadal.

 

[Andy22]

It's great Federer finally said to everyone and his fanboys that he's going to end 3rd best behind Nadal + Djokovic that a hero Federer becoming.