Australian Open [Men] - Grand Slam

[mrzz]

Nadal seems to have the toughest draw but it's fairly balanced overall.

The main problem with Nadal's draw is that it up until R3 is too easy for him:

It starts with Dellien, who is a clay courter, career high around #70, being solid is his thing. Worst, the guy is completely out of shape, have been losing a lot lately and just lost in the R1 of a challenger 0 and 1.

Then winner of Delbonis and Sousa. Both can play well but both are completely out of shape. Sousa is a guy that could give him problems if in shape, but guess he won 1 or 2 matches only in the last six months. R3 it is some qualifier or PCB...

Then all of a sudden is a complete upturn. Kyrgios or Kachanov, and then Thiem (watch out for FAA or Anderson). The transition will probably kill him.

 

[the AntiPusher]

Rafa got screwed by the " unbiased " draw..Nick/KK, Thiem, Medvedev and Roger/Djokovic..

Unlike last year draw, this is the Big PayBack (I can hear the Godfather's music playing loudly)..
Fed Fans rejoice.. Roger's gatekeeper of his legacy should be able to send Rafa back to Mallorca in two weeks title less.

 

[britbox]

Rafa got screwed by the " unbiased " draw..Nick/KK, Thiem, Medvedev and Roger/Djokovic..

Unlike last year draw, this is the Big PayBack (I can hear the Godfather's music playing loudly)..
Fed Fans rejoice.. Roger's gatekeeper of his legacy should be able to send Rafa back to Mallorca in two weeks title less.

There seems to be a lot of "gatekeepers" on hard courts, which one are you referring to?

 

[the AntiPusher]

There seems to be a lot of "gatekeepers" on hard courts, which one are you referring to?

BB..There's only one true gatekeeper to Roger's Legacy..Novak.

 

[Nadalfan2013]

Nadal has a difficult draw while Federer has the easiest as usual. I will just comment on those 2 players because they have a lot of fans.

 

[Front242]

Rafa got screwed by the " unbiased " draw..Nick/KK, Thiem, Medvedev and Roger/Djokovic..

Unlike last year draw, this is the Big PayBack (I can hear the Godfather's music playing loudly)..
Fed Fans rejoice.. Roger's gatekeeper of his legacy should be able to send Rafa back to Mallorca in two weeks title less.

No chance Kyrgios makes it that far imo and Khachanov has been crap for months now. I'm predicting Medvedev will be in the final and maybe win the whole thing, despite his tough draw.

 

[Bonaca]

No chance Kyrgios makes it that far imo and Khachanov has been crap for months now. I'm predicting Medvedev will be in the final and maybe win the whole thing, despite his tough draw.

No younger player will win a slam winning back to back against two of the big 3. If Nadal loses before SF, then maybe.
Daniil only one i give a slight chance, on the other side only Novak or Roger.
Roger has good draw, if he saves enough energy and play against Novak like last time, he can reach F again.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Roger definitely has an easy quarter. He should make it to SF. Also, he needs an easy quarter as he needs to play himself up into the tourney, considering he is coming cold into AO.

However, I would have preferred to see Roger land in Ralph's half of the draw. We already had Fedovic final in Wimbledon and Medal final in USO. Don't want to see the same match ups again here in the semifinals.

 

[the AntiPusher]

No chance Kyrgios makes it that far imo and Khachanov has been crap for months now. I'm predicting Medvedev will be in the final and maybe win the whole thing, despite his tough draw.

I agree that Nick won't make it to the 2nd week..but silent KK is lethal to Rafa's body ..he will grind Rafa's fragile knees to the bone .

 

[Fiero425]

I agree that Nick won't make it to the 2nd week..but silent KK is lethal to Rafa's body ..he will grind Rafa's fragile knees to the bone .

Rafa really is "biting it" w/ the draw as the #1 seed! It's no cakewalk in the bttm of course, but I'd rather be down there w/ the old man @#3! :whistle:

 

[Moxie]

I agree that Nick won't make it to the 2nd week..but silent KK is lethal to Rafa's body ..he will grind Rafa's fragile knees to the bone .

Nick withdrew from his last scheduled match at ATP Cup with injury (back, I think,) and KK lost his first match this week in NZ to Millman, even though KK was the #3 seed. Also, he's never beaten Rafa. They're neither one of them much of a threat to Rafa, IMO, in their respective current states.

 

[Fiero425]

BB..There's only one true gatekeeper to Roger's Legacy..Novak.

That Aussie giant Millman's in Roger's path! Can lightning strike twice? Doubtful, but can always feel hopeful! I'm lk'n for a NG'r to prevail! :whistle:

 

[Fiero425]

Nick withdrew from his last scheduled match at ATP Cup with injury (back, I think,) and KK lost his first match this week in NZ to Millman, even though KK was the #3 seed. Also, he's never beaten Rafa. They're neither one of them much of a threat to Rafa, IMO, in their respective current states.

That's why they call them "upsets" because few see it coming! Ya never know! I can't wait!

 

[Denis]

No chance Kyrgios makes it that far imo and Khachanov has been crap for months now. I'm predicting Medvedev will be in the final and maybe win the whole thing, despite his tough draw.

Medvedev Djokovic final most likely. Should be close. I am happy Djokovic doesn't have to play Medvedev in the semis and that Nadal gets to soften him up a bit.

 

[Bonaca]

I agree that Nick won't make it to the 2nd week..but silent KK is lethal to Rafa's body ..he will grind Rafa's fragile knees to the bone .

No he will not, he is playing shit for long time. Greek clown will be more difficult , this idiot is 200% motivated against the big guys.

 

[Bonaca]

Medvedev Djokovic final most likely. Should be close. I am happy Djokovic doesn't have to play Medvedev in the semis and that Nadal gets to soften him up a bit.

I see Nadal more likely in the F. Hot Roger is most dangerous opponent on HC, when healthy and rested.
But I’m fine with both against Novak.
But how great it would be to see Novak against Roger in SF and against Nadal in F???

 

[Fiero425]

I see Nadal more likely in the F. Hot Roger is most dangerous opponent on HC, when healthy and rested.
But I’m fine with both against Novak.
But how great it would be to see Novak against Roger in SF and against Nadal in F???

But Roger's got to get there! I feel he has to start dropping some early Rd. matches sooner or later! The tour can't keep rolling over for him! :whistle:

 

[imjimmy]

Nadal has the toughest draw by far. Having Kygrios in R4, Thiem in Q4 and Medvedev in SF - has to be the three toughest possible matches in a row. Even if he gets through one, it creates more wear for the next one and so on. Obviously, if he gets through them all, he will definitely be battered physically - considering these could be three 5 setters in a row. So a UsOpen 2018 type situation for Nadal where he succumbs to injury.

That being said , Novak Djokovic should send Rafa a belated holiday present. Nadal has a MUCH BETTER record against the new gen players than Novak does. And it seems in having Thiem, Medvedev and even Stan on his side of the draw, Rafa's made Novak's job much easier.
The disparity in records is quite stark. Nadal is 21-8 and Djokovic is 12-10 in h2h with the next gen players below.
So while Rafa struggles against Novak, he handles the potential threats to Novak far better than the Serb himself does.

Nadal
Thiem: 9-4
Krygios: 4-3
Medvedev: 3-0
Tsitsipas: 5-1
Overall: 21-8

Djokovic
Thiem: 6-4
Kyrgios: 0-2
Medvedev: 4-2
Tsitsipas: 2-2
Overall: 12- 10

 

[rafanoy1992]

Facing either Khachanov or Kyrgios in the 4th round is not too bad for Nadal as it might sharpen his mind a little bit. In my opinion, I would rather have Nadal face Kyrgios than Khachanov in the 4th round. Kyrgios is definitely more dangerous than Khachanov BUT he will play fast tennis so Nadal will not have to run a lot during the rallies. The main problem will be the potential QF match with Thiem. Thiem makes Nadal work physically so even if Nadal wins in 4 sets, he will be physically tired after the match. If Thiem somehow loses before the QF, then I like Nadal's chances in the SF even it is against Medvedev. For Nadal, it is all about being physically fresh at the business end of the slam.

I do pray that he leaves the Australian Open injury free! He has enough injuries he got from the AO.

 

[rafanoy1992]

Nick withdrew from his last scheduled match at ATP Cup with injury (back, I think,) and KK lost his first match this week in NZ to Millman, even though KK was the #3 seed. Also, he's never beaten Rafa. They're neither one of them much of a threat to Rafa, IMO, in their respective current states.

While KK has never beaten Rafa, he often makes Nadal work physically. I do agree about their current states that they are not a threat to Nadal. For me, it all comes down to Thiem's level of play. If he is playing well, Nadal will have a lot work to do. On the other hand, if Thiem is playing bad, then Nadal will reach the SF without spending too much energy on the court.