For what its worth, I'm 98% sold on Fonzie becoming an elite player - at the very least in the Zverev/Medvedev range, and probably better. It takes a lot to add that "probably" at such an early stage, but I feel confident enough to be on that bandwagon. Meaning, I feel pretty strongly that he's going to be what we thought Rune might be: third of a new Big Three. I am wary of wishful thinking, though, as I seem to have taken to him more than the other two (both of whom I like but haven't attached to).
What I am less certain of is how quickly that will happen. A week ago I think I predicted he'd end the year at #38; after the Rublev defeat, that looks somewhat conservative and I'm revising my year-end prediction to #18, with the caveat that if Sonego or Foe spank him, I could be thinking "Maybe #28 was wiser?" But at this point I wouldn't be surprised if he finishes anywhere between #5 and #50. He could be starting a "Rafacarazian" surge, or he could stall out somewhere on his way up, perhaps being schooled by a big dog and people figure him out, and it takes a bit to adjust. There's got to be a learning curve, right? But even so, I'm all-in. This kid is going to be a great - but how great, and how quickly consistently great, remains to be seen.
I'm very pleased with the tour right now - it is the most exciting it has been since the freshness of the Big Four began to wear off...maybe back in 2013-14? Really, I was happy through 2017, after Andy had his big year and Roger and Rafa resurged. That felt like the full cycle was complete. I know Rafa and Novak diehards might feel differently, but by 2018 it was just getting tedious. And of course for me tennis died a bit in July of 2019, then we had the Covid affair. 2021-23 felt a bit like the US Congress: a bunch of dinosaurs hanging on, blocking the new blood. I mean, enough already! Alcaraz's emergence in 2022 was a blessing and softened the blow and gave us the first sense that the era was ending. So 2024 was a welcome regime change - the era truly over; or rather, the new era fully begun. Even if Novak resurges, he's never going to dominate like he did in 2023 - not with the young and talented field.
But consider...you've got two bonafide young greats in their early primes. You've got a potential third young great just starting to show spring's bloom. Then you've got a deep and varied field of talented guys that are going to make the top 10 overflow into a deep top 20 with a lot of Masters contenders and Slam darkhorses, and a few guys with a real chance of trying to make it a Big Four or Five. And I love the variety of it all: Players ranging from the immensely talented but erratic Nordic godling to the steady little Australian Demon. You've got sneaky latish bloomers like Draper, and the cucked-but-dangerous Zverev. You've got some good Frenchmen, even! The minor leagues seems to be churning up some real talent like Mensik, Michelsen, Tien, etc; gone are the days when you get the occasional DImitrov or Raonic - now they seem to becoming in bushel-loads. Even the fact that old dogs like Novak, Grigor, and Monfils are still hanging around and doing something; and how can we not hope that Kei surprises and takes at least a small title?
Anyhow, good times in the tennis world. Let's enjoy this.
