Australian Open 2025 [Men] - Grand Slam

[El Dude]

Mini-break!

 

[El Dude]

Ouch. Up two mini-breaks, Rublev gets them back.

 

[El Dude]

Gets another mini-break, now 5-3 and will have a chance to serve it out.

 

[El Dude]

He did it! What a kid.

 

[Moxie]

He did it!! I can only see scores, so thanks for narrating some of the action, guys.

 

[El Dude]

Fonzie looked a bit nervous there towards the end, but held strong. Biggest win of his career, I'd say. It is one thing to beat other kids - a very impressive feat - quite another to beat a top 10, multi-Masters winner in a Slam.

 

[mrzz]

Fonseca wins 3x0, closing it out with a forehand winner.

 

[El Dude]

He did it!! I can only see scores, so thanks for narrating some of the action, guys.

sportstream.one, Moxie

 

[El Dude]

Rublev was very friendly and all smiles at the net. Fonzie is totally psyched - just a kid, after all.

 

[El Dude]

I feel good about his next round, Sonego, but after that it could get tough with possibly facing Tiafoe, Medvedev and then maybe Fritz in the QF. That's a tough draw and road to (probably) Sinner in the SF.

p.s. Welcome to the top 100, Joao: #98 in the live rankings.

 

[don_fabio]

Fonza has balls of steel. He punished Rublev on every slightly weaker shot. Kid just said he just enjoyed every moment. Huge victory and amazing display of tennis, winners from all sides. This kid is the future.

 

[mrzz]

I am actually pissed off to see this kid from Rio playing that good, with that mental fortitude, in his first major match. I mean, I struggle mentally against players who play worst than me in friendly matches at my club.

So I decided that I hate him. Die, João Fonseca.

 

[mrzz]

I feel good about his next round, Sonego, but after that it could get tough with possibly facing Tiafoe, Medvedev and then maybe Fritz in the QF. That's a tough draw and road to (probably) Sinner in the SF.

p.s. Welcome to the top 100, Joao: #98 in the live rankings.

I have him being stoped by Tiafoe in my draw, even if I think this is a good match up for him.

Edit: Correction, I have him stopped by Medvedev in my draw. Doesn't seem that reasonable now...

 

[mrzz]

Two more stats about that freaking kid that should be shot by aliens:

Fastest forehand of the tournament so far (183 kph), second place is Perricard (180), third is Alcaraz (179).

Average second serve speed close to 20 kph faster than the average of the top ten.

 

[MargaretMcAleer]

Two more stats about that freaking kid that should be shot by aliens:

Fastest forehand of the tournament so far (183 kph), second place is Perricard (180), third is Alcaraz (179).

Average second serve speed close to 20 kph faster than the average of the top ten.

First time my husband has watched Fonseca, we were both talking about his fhand, his ability to shape and flatten it with such insane speed, reminds me of Fernando Gonzalez.
Hubby is now a huge fan btw he said 'the kid is special'

 

[kskate2]

Oh, I wasn't referring only to this forum (but yes, in some posts I could sense some aura of inevitability).

But I can say for myself, for some reason I am pretty confident the kid will win (btw, I like Rublev). Here in Brazil, apart from the ones completely carried away, even some level people privately are showing a lot of confidence he will win this match. My own trainer, guy with a lot of professional experience that hardly gets ahead of himself, said one word about this match: upset.

Of course the head says the seed will win, but...

4 all in the first, and Fonseca still in first gear.

Edit. TB in the first

Fonseca goes up a few gears and takes the first, 7x1 in the first set TB, with a handful of winners. The kid is for real.

Legends of the Fonz prevails. I told you he would school Hair Dude. I won't apologize. Besides, how often is my crystal ball wrong?

 

[kskate2]

Order of Play for Australian Open, Day 4 Round 2, January 14, 2025

 

[El Dude]

Take this for what you will....

Federer is a bit less than 5 years older than Nadal. Sinner is exactly 5 years older than Fonseca. Federer had his first hugely dominant season in 2004 at age 22-23; Sinner dominated the tour in 2024 at age 22-23. Rafa joined Roger at the top in 2005 at age 18-19. Fonseca is 18-19 in 2025.

Meaning, if 2024 is for Jannik what 2004 was for Roger (same age), then 2025 could be for Fonzie what 2005 was for Rafa.

No, I am not saying SInner is as good as Federer or Fonzie as good as Roger, but that the ages are the same relative to each other. Something to keep in mind, as Fonzie rises. He's as young relative to the #1 player as Rafa was to Federer - and seeming breakout years are the same.

Another similarity is that both Federer and Sinner were relatively late bloomers, coming fully into their power at age 22-23 (even though both were

Now of course there's Alcaraz in the mix, so the comp diverges there. Alcaraz is 1 year and 9 months younger than Sinner, and 3 years and 3 months older than Fonseca, so much closer to Sinner and part of the same generation, really. I've also show the similarities between Sinner and Federer's ranking trajectories, and Rafa's and Alcaraz's, which you can see here:

Fonseca is obviously the outlier, but that's mostly (even entirely) due to fewer ATP tour matches played: through 2024, he had played in only 7 ATP level tournaments. At the same age, Roger had played 17, Rafa 30, Sinner 10, Alcaraz 20. So really, the more important rank comp will be this year - and we shouldn't be disappointed if he's more in the Federer/Sinner range than the Nadal/Alcaraz range. But we shall see...Before watching his performance against Rublev, I was predicting he'd finish #38 or so (I think, can't remember the exact number)...now I'm predicting #18.

 

[Moxie]

I wanted to shout out @mrzz for giving us the Fonseca run-up to the AO. I don't see how any of us would have known his recent run of wins in challengers, and, even though we have our eyes on him, it might have seemed more out of left field, beating Rublev today. Anyway, I thought it was fun to have it on our radar together as a really possible upset, which came good!

 

[Moxie]

sportstream.one, Moxie

All I get with that is porn.