Your predictions for final Big 3 slam tally

the AntiPusher

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I’m here to write them off. :bye:

Kaput. Gone. Busted. Lightweight. Childish. Not up to the task. Now I can sympathise a lot with Zverev because I think his injury might affect him for a long while, and he was Trojan against Rafa in Paris, but himself and Tsitsipas are just not that player. Unless they snuck an Andres Gomes slam out of somewhere.

Thiem is unfortunately taking too long to get back to himself, and this is a huge loss. He’s like Murray since 2016. Medvedev is very sensitive, as we saw in Australia. He likes to be liked, and he’s struggled since that match, but he’s also strong too, strong enough to be back and competing for the big titles. I think we’ve seen lads like Ruud before, and they’re unlikely slam winners.

Next year will be the final year for Rafa, I think, at that level, and Novak too. It’s a great opportunity for Carlos but we still have to see how he’ll handle his change in circumstances. He’d certainly be a unique boy-king if he went up a further notch and dominated 2023…
Kieran, let's say Rafa wins two GS, RG and you pick em while being relatively healthy. Do you think he would still retire? I think it would take a year win his GS winning titles chances plummets drastically like it did for Roger's options did. Rafa and Co do not want to leave any "bacon ' on the table for Novak.
 
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the AntiPusher

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Kieran, let's say in 2023 Rafa wins two GS, RG and you pick em while being relatively healthy. Do you think he would still retire? I think it would take a year win his GS winning titles chances plummets drastically like it did for Roger's options did. Rafa and Co do not want to leave any "bacon ' on the table for Novak. The number #25:to answer the poster's question is always been my final tally. (Nadal's)

 
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Kieran

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Kieran, let's say Rafa wins two GS, RG and you pick em while being relatively healthy. Do you think he would still retire? I think it would take a year win his GS winning titles chances plummets drastically like it did for Roger's options did. Rafa and Co do not want to leave any "bacon ' on the table for Novak.The number #25:to answer the poster's question is always been my final tally. (Nadal's)
That’s true, you’ve been consistent in that, and now it’s not so far fetched, especially if Rafa summons up the same dogged level he got this year in Australia, at next years Australian Open. I’m not in the camp that hands that trophy to Novak without complaint. Fat from it.

If he wins 1 or 2 next year - if - he’s definitely got the will to continue into 2024, but his problem is, the last two seasons he’s basically been fully functioning for only the first half of the season, with regards to being to prepare properly for the second two slams, including proper warm up events and good rest in between. Last year he didn’t even play them. What will next year be like? He’s basically becoming more limited in his options. If young Charley goes on a tear, not even the FO is guaranteed - already Novak is giving him hard enough matches there..
 

El Dude

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I believe that @El Dude has offered for you to provide your own argument rather than just being insulting. Also, we have moved on to the nuances of the argument, which you seem to have missed. Pioline? Jeepers...you'd do better with Coria. Weren't we talking about the French?
Imagine being Ricardo's significant other. Yikes.

Anyhow, he keeps mentioning Pioline because I brought up his name -- literally once, and among a long list of others -- in a discussion of underrated/forgotten players and/or those who went far but never won a big one. Ricardo's main problem is that he seems unable to discern nuance, and doesn't understanding that conversation and language is fluid. I think I even phrased it as a question ("what about Pioline?") and he grabbed onto it like a gotcha moment and rehashes it every so often, year after year. It is rather sad, really.

But I don't expect him to take up the gauntlet because, in the end, like most bullies, he's rather cowardly and afraid of real discussion and debate. Classic faux machismo. Anyhow...
 
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El Dude

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Personally, I'd like to write off Tsitsipas and Zverev, because they have become so unlikeable, though I agree that each still has a decent chance of winning a Slam. I still see Medvedev winning say, 3?

What of Thiem? Is he done? I hope not.

You've mentioned Milos Raonic a couple of times lately. He seems even more random to me that Dimitrov or Nishikori, of the Lost Gen. I don't see any of those guys winning a Major.

But, yes, the Masters are up for grabs more in part because Rafa and Novak, (and when he was playing, Roger,) started to prioritize them less. But that's not going to change. Before we see a lot of different winners at Majors, we're going to see a lot of different winners at the Masters. Pablo Carreño Busta was one of my recent favorite new winners.
Yeah, those two guys are unlikeable. But it is also hard to ignore what they've accomplished so far -- especially Zverev -- at a pretty young age. Despite their inability to win Slams thus far, they're still two of the top four Next Genners (after only Medvedev and Thiem). And both are young enough (24 and 25) that they'll get their opportunities.

As for Thiem, I personally would be worried. He hasn't won a title in two years and his "comeback" this year was rather lackluster. Still, you never know - I'd like to see him surge, and while he just turned 29 and so isn't a pup anymore, he isn't ancient. Who knows, maybe he can channel some Stanimal...but I'd bet against it.

I've mentioned Raonic because he's all but forgotten, and for awhile was one of the top Lost Genners (a dubious honor). But yeah, I don't think any of them will win a major - but I was just saying that I'd love to see one of them do a Goran. And of course Goran isn't the only player to win their first Slam or big title later in their career. Petr Korda also comes to mind; he was just a couple months younger than Boris Becker, but won his lone Slam in 1998, two years after Becker's last. And with Masters being a more open field, we might see more straggles winning at least a Masters, as we've seen with Isner, Fognini, and Carreno Busta.

Anyhow, here's the number of big titles won by the Big Four (we're including Andy), from 2002 through 2022, with bold being when they won every one for the year:

1, 2, 7, 11, 11, 12, 13, 11, 11, 11, 14, 14, 14, 10, 13, 13, 9, 9, 9, 4 (8*), 5, 4

As you can see, they won at least half of all big titles from 2004 to 2020 (with 4 of 7 in 2020 - prorated to 8), and peaked in 2011-16, then dropped a step in 2017, and another in 2021. Only 5 of 14 last year, and 4 of 11 this year, with 2 remaining. Of course most of that loss of dominance has come at non-Slam big titles, but it is still striking compared to the heart of their collective dominance, 2005-16.

So the era is clearing coming to an end - and of course Roger retiring symbolizes that, even though he hasn't won a big title since 2019. Novak and Rafa only won a single Masters each last year, and Novak just one this year. Andy's 2016 was the last tour finals won by any of them.

I was looking at their collective record yesterday and what struck me is that in some ways, 2017-22 seems like an "alternate timeline." By the end of 2016, it looked like Roger and Rafa were both done, and Novak on the downswing. If Roger and Rafa had never won another, and Novak maybe just a handful more Masters and a Slam or two after, it would have looked more historically normal. But then we had 2017-22, which totally blew all historical precedents out of the water. But the party can only go on so long, and the last half decade is sort of like the Big Three's "after party."

I think we're going to look back at 2022 as being marked by two events: The rise of Alcaraz and the retirement of Federer. So if 2017-21 was the lead-up to the changing of the era, 2022 marks the true turning point, and 2023 is the New Age...

Even though reality doesn't usually neatly fit into such narratives, my guess is that 2022 is the last year they win a majority of Slams - that at most, Rafa and Novak will win two between them in 2023, and maybe 3-4 overall together. But I've been way off about such predictions before.
 

the AntiPusher

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That’s true, you’ve been consistent in that, and now it’s not so far fetched, especially if Rafa summons up the same dogged level he got this year in Australia, at next years Australian Open. I’m not in the camp that hands that trophy to Novak without complaint. Fat from it.

If he wins 1 or 2 next year - if - he’s definitely got the will to continue into 2024, but his problem is, the last two seasons he’s basically been fully functioning for only the first half of the season, with regards to being to prepare properly for the second two slams, including proper warm up events and good rest in between. Last year he didn’t even play them. What will next year be like? He’s basically becoming more limited in his options. If young Charley goes on a tear, not even the FO is guaranteed - already Novak is giving him hard enough matches there..
Rafa needs to quit listening to our fellow Rafa fans , they know who they are @Moxie, @MargaretMcAleer and @rafanoy1992 who all signed off on Rafa playing more than 2 full months of hardcourt tennis at the beginning of the year. jajaja..

Seriously, if he manages his next few years like Roger did at the same age, he will maximize his chances to champion a few more grand slams.
 
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britbox

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Rafa needs to quit listening to our fellow Rafa fans , they know who they are @Moxie, @MargaretMcAleer and @rafanoy1992 who all signed off on Rafa playing more than 2 full months of hardcourt tennis at the beginning of the year. jajaja..

Seriously, if he manages his next few years like Roger did at the same age, he will maximize his chances to champion a few more grand slams.
You think Rafa listens to you guys?
 

the AntiPusher

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You think Rafa listens to you guys?
I truly doubt it but I do feel that "others" in the tennis community may visit some of these sites. E.g. I havent heard any tennis players fans listed before until these boards started using the term Fed Fans and Rafa fans.. I think Brad Gilbert and others listen to Us. I think Mary Carrillo got wind of how lousy she was on ESPN with Mary Jo .. Who knows Baron what Rafa listens to but this is Social Media.
 

britbox

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I truly doubt it but I do feel that "others" in the tennis community may visit some of these sites. E.g. I havent heard any tennis players fans listed before until these boards started using the term Fed Fans and Rafa fans.. I think Brad Gilbert and others listen to Us. I think Mary Carrillo got wind of how lousy she was on ESPN with Mary Jo .. Who knows Baron what Rafa listens to but this is Social Media.
I'm pretty sure Bodo and Tignor used to glance at the old Tennis.com boards when we were over there back in the day... a few thoughts of posters definitely fed into their articles. I seriously doubt any player takes much notice... although Kyrgios's brother chips in on an Australian Tennis Group I follow on Facebook.
 

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big3.jpg
big3a.jpg
big3b.jpg


:bye: :bye::bye::bye::bye::bye::bye::bye::bye:
 

the AntiPusher

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I'm pretty sure Bodo and Tignor used to glance at the old Tennis.com boards when we were over there back in the day... a few thoughts of posters definitely fed into their articles. I seriously doubt any player takes much notice... although Kyrgios's brother chips in on an Australian Tennis Group I follow on Facebook.
Baron, I have spoken with Kamau Murray..He and Sloane have been on this forum and she loves @kskate2 name of Miss Ebony Smooth.
 
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Moxie

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Yeah, those two guys are unlikeable. But it is also hard to ignore what they've accomplished so far -- especially Zverev -- at a pretty young age. Despite their inability to win Slams thus far, they're still two of the top four Next Genners (after only Medvedev and Thiem). And both are young enough (24 and 25) that they'll get their opportunities.
I'm not totally expecting to be correct in writing them off, I'm expressing personal preference, as much as anything. But I do think they have shown a kind expectation of entitlement that is not only off-putting, I think it serves them ill in their ambitions. They seem to lack the grit, when the rubber hits the road. A bit more humility would serve them both on the tennis court, and in the court of public opinion. I feel sorry for Zverev's severe injury, but only on a basic human level.
As for Thiem, I personally would be worried. He hasn't won a title in two years and his "comeback" this year was rather lackluster. Still, you never know - I'd like to see him surge, and while he just turned 29 and so isn't a pup anymore, he isn't ancient. Who knows, maybe he can channel some Stanimal...but I'd bet against it.
Thiem i DO feel for, and I hope he finds his way back. He has always reminded me somewhat of Stan, so here's hoping.
I've mentioned Raonic because he's all but forgotten, and for awhile was one of the top Lost Genners (a dubious honor). But yeah, I don't think any of them will win a major - but I was just saying that I'd love to see one of them do a Goran. And of course Goran isn't the only player to win their first Slam or big title later in their career. Petr Korda also comes to mind; he was just a couple months younger than Boris Becker, but won his lone Slam in 1998, two years after Becker's last. And with Masters being a more open field, we might see more straggles winning at least a Masters, as we've seen with Isner, Fognini, and Carreno Busta.
Whatever happened to Raonic, besides a load of injuries? He is currently listed as "Inactive," which I guess means he has no ranking at all? We're talking about a Wimbledon finalist, so that is sad. But I have no sympathy for the Lost Gen, generally, and I hope they don't win a Slam, if it feels by default. If someone really pulls himself up, I promise to at least try to be impressed.
Anyhow, here's the number of big titles won by the Big Four (we're including Andy), from 2002 through 2022, with bold being when they won every one for the year:

1, 2, 7, 11, 11, 12, 13, 11, 11, 11, 14, 14, 14, 10, 13, 13, 9, 9, 9, 4 (8*), 5, 4

As you can see, they won at least half of all big titles from 2004 to 2020 (with 4 of 7 in 2020 - prorated to 8), and peaked in 2011-16, then dropped a step in 2017, and another in 2021. Only 5 of 14 last year, and 4 of 11 this year, with 2 remaining. Of course most of that loss of dominance has come at non-Slam big titles, but it is still striking compared to the heart of their collective dominance, 2005-16.

So the era is clearing coming to an end - and of course Roger retiring symbolizes that, even though he hasn't won a big title since 2019. Novak and Rafa only won a single Masters each last year, and Novak just one this year. Andy's 2016 was the last tour finals won by any of them.
As I mentioned before, it is also a feature that the Big 2-3, I guess, have stopped focusing on the MS quite a while ago. Roger has obviously missed all/most since 2019, and Novak and Rafa have missed 4-5 each of last year and this. They didn't even play them. That alone is a major factor in why they haven't dominated them, but I see where you're going with this, and I won't quibble.
I was looking at their collective record yesterday and what struck me is that in some ways, 2017-22 seems like an "alternate timeline." By the end of 2016, it looked like Roger and Rafa were both done, and Novak on the downswing. If Roger and Rafa had never won another, and Novak maybe just a handful more Masters and a Slam or two after, it would have looked more historically normal. But then we had 2017-22, which totally blew all historical precedents out of the water. But the party can only go on so long, and the last half decade is sort of like the Big Three's "after party."
Agreed. No one saw 2017 coming, with the revival tour of the Fedal show. At the end of 2016, I think we saw it as the dawning of the Novak/Murray late era. Remember they played for the YE#1 at the YEC. Then both fell apart at the AO, and Roger and Rafa swooped back in. I don't think it looked like Novak was on the downswing until later in 2017. In any case, I agree with it as the after-party. It would have been normal for them all to be cooked, or mostly, by then. That's when we kinda just started shrugging our shoulders in disbelief.
I think we're going to look back at 2022 as being marked by two events: The rise of Alcaraz and the retirement of Federer. So if 2017-21 was the lead-up to the changing of the era, 2022 marks the true turning point, and 2023 is the New Age...

Even though reality doesn't usually neatly fit into such narratives, my guess is that 2022 is the last year they win a majority of Slams - that at most, Rafa and Novak will win two between them in 2023, and maybe 3-4 overall together. But I've been way off about such predictions before.
As I said above, I'm going to buy your narrative that 2022 may be the changing of the guard year. Roger retired, and Alcaraz, who looks to be the real deal, won a Major. At 19. If Rafa and Novak split even most of the next Majors in 2023, we will once again just shake our heads.
 
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Moxie

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Rafa needs to quit listening to our fellow Rafa fans , they know who they are @Moxie, @MargaretMcAleer and @rafanoy1992 who all signed off on Rafa playing more than 2 full months of hardcourt tennis at the beginning of the year. jajaja..

Seriously, if he manages his next few years like Roger did at the same age, he will maximize his chances to champion a few more grand slams.
Remind me when we ever said that? You're hilarious with the endless calling out of fellow Rafa fans. For me, I'd like to see him take the rest of this year off, defend the AO, then, yeah, play a really smart schedule prior to Roland Garros.

And, to your claim of always having said Rafa would get to #25...indeed you have long said it. I thought that was insane. Maybe by next June it won't look so impossible. Kudos to you.
 
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the AntiPusher

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Remind me when we ever said that? You're hilarious with the endless calling out of fellow Rafa fans. For me, I'd like to see him take the rest of this year off, defend the AO, then, yeah, play a really smart schedule prior to Roland Garros.

And, to your claim of always having said Rafa would get to #25...indeed you have long said it. I thought that was insane. Maybe by next June it won't look so impossible. Kudos to you.
RELAX. That's not a call out. Peace
 

Moxie

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RELAX. That's not a call out. Peace
I did give you the shout out for having the faith for 25 way long ago. I wouldn't have bet a cup of coffee on 22, for anyone, a few years back. And that is NOT lack of faith. Like @El Dude says, no one really could have predicted what happened after 2016. Well, except you. I hope you get your prediction of 25 for Rafa. :)
 

Fiero425

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But no decimas... :yawningface::face-with-hand-over-mouth::pleading-face: Sorry but Nadal having multiple decimas 14 FO, 12 Barcelona, 11 Monte Carlo and 10 Rome is the ultimate achievement and the one record that will never be broken... True excellence, a GOD MODE level that Pushovic can only dream of. :clap::bye:

I guess this doesn't ct. on the ladies' side! Martina has tons of multi-wins! She won Chgo 12 X's, 11 Eastbornes, 9 Wimbls., 8 WTA Chp.! :shushing-face: :yawningface:
 

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I guess this doesn't ct. on the ladies' side! Martina has tons of multi-wins! She won Chgo 12 X's, 11 Eastbornes, 9 Wimbls., 8 WTA Chp.! :shushing-face: :yawningface:

Decimas = 10+! Nadal has 3 of them in big tournaments (1 slam + 2 masters 1000)! 8 or 9 are not decimas and I don't care about small tournaments! :yawningface::bye:
 
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Fiero425

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Decimas = 10+! Nadal has 3 of them in big tournaments (1 slam + 2 masters 1000)! 8 or 9 are not decimas and I don't are about small tournaments! :yawningface::bye:

I'm easily triggered trying to keep the old guard alive; even creating Blogs to keep them relevant! I'm still hanging w/ Bjorn & Martina! :lol6: