Will Novak pass Rafa?

[Fiero425]

The point is to show how quickly things can turn around. When Nole finished his Nole Slam, it appeared as though he is going to overtake everyone in just two years. But he basically he laid an egg.

That is so ridiculous! A player can't win them all; even Federer or Nole! Djokovic had a great run from 2014-16; there was bound to be a crash! His arm was already giving him trouble that summer before the USO in '16! We see how Rafa has gone up and down with his body and play! If anything Nole's had the least amount of trouble and has just about caught both Fedal even though they had a significant lead and were beating him in years past! You should know this already!

 

[brokenshoelace]

That is so ridiculous! A player can't win them all; even Federer or Nole! Djokovic had a great run from 2014-16; there was bound to be a crash! His arm was already giving him trouble that summer before the USO in '16! We see how Rafa has gone up and down with his body and play! If anything Nole's had the least amount of trouble and has just about caught both Fedal even though they had a significant lead and were beating him in years past! You should know this already!

It's pretty bad when I think one of this guy's posts is spot on but here we go...

 

[Fiero425]

It's pretty bad when I think one of this guy's posts is spot on but here we go...

I was being kind! It's shocking to find out that winning 4 majors in a row & making the final of a 3rd (USO) the same year was laying an egg!

 

[brokenshoelace]

I was being kind! It's shocking to find out that winning 4 majors in a row & making the final of a 3rd (USO) the same year was laying an egg!

Pretty sure he was referring to what unfolded in 2017, but I wouldn't call it laying an egg necessarily. For starters, he was hurt and missed time to injury. Of course, his game was suffering even before the injury and he seemed mentally drained, but every tennis player will go through that. By the same token, Rafa laid multiple eggs in 2015 and 2016, and Roger has had multiple sub-par years. This is normal as these guys got older and had to adapt.

 

[Jelenafan]

Novak has 17 Majors and it’s not some earth shattering headline news in the tennis world....17! That’s a ridiculous stat.

I do think the odds are Rafa gets at least one more FO, so it’s more will Novak get to 20. I think he’ll do it.

 

[Moxie]

The point is to show how quickly things can turn around. When Nole finished his Nole Slam, it appeared as though he is going to overtake everyone in just two years. But he basically he laid an egg.

Kind of a weird and opaque way to make that point. I agree with Broken, though, that it's hard to say he "laid an egg." He did go on a 2-year walkabout, but dry spells happen to them all. No shock really that lack of motivation happens after that kind of a run, and there was some injury mixed in there. And I do think he's come back from it with a less consistently high level, and a bit more of a tendency to get a bit hollow in terms of motivation. (His YEC was a bit of a head scratcher.) And the injuries/niggles creep in. The best of the younger players will do more giant killing at some point, but for now Novak seems to beat most not even with his A-game. I kind of give up predicting where the top is for all of the Big 3.

 

[rafanoy1992]

Novak has 17 Majors and it’s not some earth shattering headline news in the tennis world....17! That’s a ridiculous stat.

I do think the odds are Rafa gets at least one more FO, so it’s more will Novak get to 20. I think he’ll do it.

I think he will reach 20 slams too. He is too good not to reach 20 slams. The question is will that be enough to become number in slam titles?

 

[rafanoy1992]

This will probably a biased take or opinion but I am very curious to see if Nadal is able to win at least 1 more non-Clay slam. I know for sure he can win at most 2 FO titles and thus put him over Federer in slam titles (21 > 20). But I am very curious if he is able to win 1 slam outside RG. I know he just won 2 out of the last 3 US Opens, so he could definitely do it, but at the same time the Next Gen and Thiem are getting closer so he might not able to win 1 slam between AO/Wimbledon/US Open.

 

[tented]

This will probably a biased take or opinion but I am very curious to see if Nadal is able to win at least 1 more non-Clay slam. I know for sure he can win at most 2 FO titles and thus put him over Federer in slam titles (21 > 20). But I am very curious if he is able to win 1 slam outside RG. I know he just won 2 out of the last 3 US Opens, so he could definitely do it, but at the same time the Next Gen and Thiem are getting closer so he might not able to win 1 slam between AO/Wimbledon/US Open.

I think the draws will be key. If he could avoid, say, Djokovic or Thiem at the USO, I think his chances of winning would increase. But if he’s in the SF or final, and Novak is on the other side of the net, we know how that would end.

 

[Moxie]

I think the draws will be key. If he could avoid, say, Djokovic or Thiem at the USO, I think his chances of winning would increase. But if he’s in the SF or final, and Novak is on the other side of the net, we know how that would end.

I'm afraid that a second win at the AO seems destined to be always the one that got away. And his best chance at another Wimbledon went in 2018. (Not that I'll ever give up on him at either Slam.) USO is his 2nd best Slam, and he's beaten Djokovic more than he's lost to him there, but I know why you say that.

 

[tented]

I'm afraid that a second win at the AO seems destined to be always the one that got away. And his best chance at another Wimbledon went in 2018. (Not that I'll ever give up on him at either Slam.) USO is his 2nd best Slam, and he's beaten Djokovic more than he's lost to him there, but I know why you say that.

Yeah, it’s impossible to ignore the fact that Rafa hasn’t beaten Novak off clay since the 2013 US Open — nearly 7 years ago. Until he demonstrates he can do that again, my money is on Novak.

 

[Moxie]

Yeah, it’s impossible to ignore the fact that Rafa hasn’t beaten Novak off clay since the 2013 US Open — nearly 7 years ago. Until he demonstrates he can do that again, my money is on Novak.

Yeah, yeah...I know.

 

[rafanoy1992]

Yeah, it’s impossible to ignore the fact that Rafa hasn’t beaten Novak off clay since the 2013 US Open — nearly 7 years ago. Until he demonstrates he can do that again, my money is on Novak.

It is why the “race” between Djokovic and Nadal is very interesting to watch because I do agree that Djokovic has Nadal’s number off-Clay. But at the same time, if someone takes out Djokovic, then for surely Nadal will take advantage of it.

Also, like I said a lot of times before, 4 or 5 slams will start to creep on Djokovic both mentally and physically. So while he might accomplish it, it will be a steep climb for him.

For Nadal, it’s all about winning 1 slam this year, tie Federer, and stay healthy. If he can manage that, he will surely be ready for 2021!

 

[Moxie]

It is why the “race” between Djokovic and Nadal is very interesting to watch because I do agree that Djokovic has Nadal’s number off-Clay. But at the same time, if someone takes out Djokovic, then for surely Nadal will take advantage of it.

Also, like I said a lot of times before, 4 or 5 slams will start to creep on Djokovic both mentally and physically. So while he might accomplish it, it will be a steep climb for him.

For Nadal, it’s all about winning 1 slam this year, tie Federer, and stay healthy. If he can manage that, he will surely be ready for 2021!

As we've been kind of saying for years, that for Roger it depends on the draw, it starts to be the same for Rafa, off-clay. And I daresay it will be the same for Novak, sooner rather than later. Upset is possible, but basically we're talking about only a few that can take the best out. If Rafa can stay focused and healthy, no reason he can't pass Roger. And it will become a big climb for Novak, if Rafa adds even one, but 2. Rafa's chances of passing Roger are good. Novak's chances of passing both, if that happens, becomes daunting.

 

[Ricardo]

Also Rafa hasn’t beaten Federer since 2015 off clay, that’s 5 years.....but of course Federer is showing bigger decline now so his chance is improving.

 

[Moxie]

Also Rafa hasn’t beaten Federer since 2015 off clay, that’s 5 years.....but of course Federer is showing bigger decline now so his chance is improving.

Of course, Roger hadn't beaten Rafa in a Major for 9.5 years, until he discovered the fountain of youth. And he just beat Novak for the first time in 5 years. It gets a lot trickier, even for the Big 3, at the dog end of their careers.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

OK. Since slam count is so difficult to predict, let us play a different guessing game. Who is more likely to win double career slam (first, if more than one can do it).

a. Novak by winning RG
b. Ralph by winning AO
c. Fed by winning RG
d. None of the above.

I think chance for a > chances for b > chances for c. But, where do you place chances for d in that?

 

[the AntiPusher]

Yeah, it’s impossible to ignore the fact that Rafa hasn’t beaten Novak off clay since the 2013 US Open — nearly 7 years ago. Until he demonstrates he can do that again, my money is on Novak.

Unfortunately. It the Truth..this is what baffles me.why does Rafa doesn't just throw out the old game plan vs Novak..I know it may not sound conventional but when you are in a mono on mono battle you have to throw caution into the wind and go for it on non clay surfaces.Novak turned his career round vs Roger using that ..mentally..if the last time Rafa defeated Novak on a non clay was 2013 US Open he should be ashamed of himself..that's ridiculous IMO

 

[Moxie]

OK. Since slam count is so difficult to predict, let us play a different guessing game. Who is more likely to win double career slam (first, if more than one can do it).

a. Novak by winning RG
b. Ralph by winning AO
c. Fed by winning RG
d. None of the above.

I think chance for a > chances for b > chances for c. But, where do you place chances for d in that?

I really would have thought b, since Ralph has been close so many times to winning the AO. Novak and Roger really haven't been as close to winning RG, certainly not Roger for a long time. Novak is still in the hunt, but he's got Thiem in his way, not just Nadal. Novak may have the best chance, with Nadal aging, and always a possibility for injury. Nadal still has an outside chance. Roger none. None of the above has the best odds, though, I'd say.

 

[rafanoy1992]

Unfortunately. It the Truth..this is what baffles me.why does Rafa doesn't just throw out the old game plan vs Novak..I know it may not sound conventional but when you are in a mono on mono battle you have to throw caution into the wind and go for it on non clay surfaces.Novak turned his career round vs Roger using that ..mentally..if the last time Rafa defeated Novak on a non clay was 2013 US Open he should be ashamed of himself..that's ridiculous IMO

Because just like Federer, Nadal is a stubborn tennis player. They will often go back to their old basics if things go awry.