Will Novak pass Rafa?

[Fiero425]

Do you believe Nadal would win RG this year if he gets the same draw like in Melbourne? Assuming his current form.

There are a lot of "IF's" in this thread! I w/b so glad when we get into the "meat of the season" so people won't have to live in an alt.- reality!

 

[El Dude]

A Rafa-Novak final would be grand. Unlike 2015, Rafa is in good enough form that a Novak victory would be well-earned, and Novak is in good enough form that Rafa would actually be challenged by him. It would also be the most important slam for Novak to win to pass Rafa, as not only would he be adding to his tally, but he would be taking away a win from Rafa.

That said, I think it is a foregone conclusion that Rafa passes Roger, and Novak passes Rafa. It is the way of things: records are broken. I just think that Rafa really wants to pass Roger and will do what it takes to stay fit enough to do so, and likewise with Novak. So we'll probably end with:

Novak 22
Rafa 21
Roger 20

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Novak has beaten Rafa in RG. Also, Novak has won RG. But, those two did not happen in the same year. Hope Novak is able to do both this year.

 

[Bonaca]

There are a lot of "IF's" in this thread! I w/b so glad when we get into the "meat of the season" so people won't have to live in an alt.- reality!

At this point everything is about IF‘s. We hsve nothing else.

 

[the AntiPusher]

A Rafa-Novak final would be grand. Unlike 2015, Rafa is in good enough form that a Novak victory would be well-earned, and Novak is in good enough form that Rafa would actually be challenged by him. It would also be the most important slam for Novak to win to pass Rafa, as not only would he be adding to his tally, but he would be taking away a win from Rafa.

That said, I think it is a foregone conclusion that Rafa passes Roger, and Novak passes Rafa. It is the way of things: records are broken. I just think that Rafa really wants to pass Roger and will do what it takes to stay fit enough to do so, and likewise with Novak. So we'll probably end with:

Novak 22
Rafa 21
Roger 20

In essence what you are saying is Rafa will have to win Wimbledon and AO again if he wants to be the GOAT...if so..I would agree

The pressure will be enormous and I hope that he plays a reduced clay schedule..Rafa learned that he only needs to be the King of late May not the King of Clay (all of of April and May)

 

[El Dude]

In essence what you are saying is Rafa will have to win Wimbledon and AO again if he wants to be the GOAT...if so..I would agree

The pressure will be enormous and I hope that he plays a reduced clay schedule..Rafa learned that he only needs to be the King of late May not the King of Clay (all of of April and May)

Well, except I don't equate most Slam titles with GOATness. All three are GOATs.

 

[rafanoy1992]

A Rafa-Novak final would be grand. Unlike 2015, Rafa is in good enough form that a Novak victory would be well-earned, and Novak is in good enough form that Rafa would actually be challenged by him. It would also be the most important slam for Novak to win to pass Rafa, as not only would he be adding to his tally, but he would be taking away a win from Rafa.

That said, I think it is a foregone conclusion that Rafa passes Roger, and Novak passes Rafa. It is the way of things: records are broken. I just think that Rafa really wants to pass Roger and will do what it takes to stay fit enough to do so, and likewise with Novak. So we'll probably end with:

Novak 22
Rafa 21
Roger 20

I do not think that there is a foregone conclusion in sports especially with the Big Three in tennis. Also, while records are meant to be broken it does not really equate that it will happen.

Yes, there is some biased in my post because I am a Nadal fan but at the same time that I watched enough sports that anything can happen. I still remembered telling myself in 2010 after Nadal completed the Career Slam that it will be very hard for him to surpass Federer. The reason I told myself like that because I believed that Federer was great he will win enough slams to fend off Nadal. This is before Djokovic 2.0 came...

Then, fast-forward into 2020, I am still surprised that Nadal is only 1 behind Federer with a great chance of surpassing him either this year or 2021.

That's the same thought I am holding about Djokovic. He is an all-time great and I believe he can potentially become GOAT (even surpassing Nadal) due to his records and play, but for him to win 5 more slams after the age of 33 is a very daunting task. I would not be surprised one bit if he does it, but it will really take a lot of him to accomplish that feat.

When Federer won the 2018 AO and reached 20 slams, I told myself that man Nadal has to 5 win more slams and hopefully Federer does not win another slam just to surpass him. While Nadal has won 3 slams since then and unluckily Federer did not converted two championship points (20 > 19), and Nadal still has to win 2 "more" slams to even surpass Federer. Djokovic is in the same boat as Nadal two years ago but the difference is that Nadal has a better chance to win a couple more slams. So, Djokovic might really have to win 4 to 6 "more" slams just to surpass both Federer and Nadal. That's just insane to think about!

As for Nadal, while I do think he is thinking about Federer's record, I think deep down he really just wants to be competitive and play at a high level. 21 is not a set number. It is just a number for him. If he reaches 21 slams, he won't think like, "Okay, I got 21 slams now I can retire happily..." He will try his best to try be competitive and win more slams.

 

[brokenshoelace]

Do you believe Nadal would win RG this year if he gets the same draw like in Melbourne? Assuming his current form.

Again, this makes me chuckle. A guy who's won the tournament 12 times, a lot of times when he was in much worse form than he is now, and we're questioning if he can overcome a tough draw.

If he gets the same draw as the Australian Open, is there a single match he'd be an underdog in?

 

[brokenshoelace]

Novak has beaten Rafa in RG. Also, Novak has won RG. But, those two did not happen in the same year. Hope Novak is able to do both this year.

Well, if you're resigned to the fact that both are going to eclipse your player you might as well start rooting for the one you hate less.

 

[Bonaca]

Again, this makes me chuckle. A guy who's won the tournament 12 times, a lot of times when he was in much worse form than he is now, and we're questioning if he can overcome a tough draw.

If he gets the same draw as the Australian Open, is there a single match he'd be an underdog in?

No one said he is not the favorite.
My question stands for my wish to witness this kind of constellation at RG. No more or less.

 

[the AntiPusher]

Well, except I don't equate most Slam titles with GOATness. All three are GOATs.

Dude. I said the same exact thing but as you know maybe some Rafa fans, Fed Fans like Front and GSM will not let it be a 3 head Goat but it truly IS..(the close roof incident at Wimbledon 2018 was the tournament where Novak made his big leap and forever cemented his place with Rafa and Roger).

 

[brokenshoelace]

No one said he is not the favorite.
My question stands for my wish to witness this kind of constellation at RG. No more or less.

You asked if he would win it with a draw like that. I mean, if he's the favorite in every match, then he's the favorite to win the tournament. Correct?

 

[Ricardo]

A Rafa-Novak final would be grand. Unlike 2015, Rafa is in good enough form that a Novak victory would be well-earned, and Novak is in good enough form that Rafa would actually be challenged by him. It would also be the most important slam for Novak to win to pass Rafa, as not only would he be adding to his tally, but he would be taking away a win from Rafa.

That said, I think it is a foregone conclusion that Rafa passes Roger, and Novak passes Rafa. It is the way of things: records are broken. I just think that Rafa really wants to pass Roger and will do what it takes to stay fit enough to do so, and likewise with Novak. So we'll probably end with:

Novak 22
Rafa 21
Roger 20

foregone conclusion? since when is anyone winning 5 slams after age 32 a foregone conclusion? you are just full of shit as usual. Actually it's a foregone conclusion that you will post something stupid, really really out of this world stupid.....very soon too.

 

[Bonaca]

You asked if he would win it with a draw like that. I mean, if he's the favorite in every match, then he's the favorite to win the tournament. Correct?

I asked him if he thinks that Nadal would win RG with the draw of this years AO.
The question is not who is the favorite or who has won the tournament 12 times. You got that?

I think no, so i asked for another opinion. What is your problem?

 

[the AntiPusher]

One can never question Moxie's capacity for stubbornness or refusal to accept empirical reality in favor of a predetermined narrative. It truly boggles the mind.

As I said numerous times last year, there is absolutely nothing on the horizon that should severely concern Djokovic as far as a particular match-up that would get in his way of winning Slams for the next 5+ years. At the end of last year, after Shanghai, Moxie tried to say that the player for Djokovic to be worried about was Tsitsipas. What happened immediately after that? Djokovic trounced Tsitsipas in straight sets in Paris and then Tsitsipas flamed out early at the Australian Open in the 3rd round to Raonic of all people.

And this was Moxie's big bad scary threat to Djokovic? Are you kidding me?

There are two requirements a player has to meet to be a threat to Djokovic in Slams:

1) Not just be a tough match-up (a la Batista-Agut) H2H for Djokovic but someone who is a favorite more often than not against him, because winning in the Slams against Djokovic is even tougher than elsewhere, and

2) Someone who can be trusted to consistently get to the quarters or better of all the Slams.

Now who even remotely comes close to meeting these two requirements? Perhaps Thiem, but he is far from being a favorite against Djokovic anywhere but clay.



Yes, there is: Djokovic not having his head up his own ass, particularly at Roland Garros.



Here is Moxie trying to pass off her wishful thinking and hopes as analysis. She doesn't want Djokovic to have the most Slams because she can't stand his temperament, so naturally her analysis is that he probably won't get the most Slams.

As for the substance of what she is saying, it is, yet again, terribly off-base. Djokovic is fully fit and healthy. He just won the Australian Open by cruising through the first 6 rounds and then winning a 5-set final. He is in peak condition and is the world number one. Yet somehow Moxie is talking about age. It is beyond preposterous.



Well, of course. You don't want this to happen so naturally you are going to say it's "daunting." The bad news for you is that there is no reason Djokovic cannot be winning Slams for the next 5 years. He is in excellent condition and there are no youthful challengers for him to have severe worries about, especially not in the Slams.

the one thing that Novak's win has done is postponed any retirement by Roger or Rafa for now..if either wants to be the all time GS titles leader they will both have to find a way to be competitive until at least 2022.

 

[brokenshoelace]

I asked him if he thinks that Nadal would win RG with the draw of this years AO.
The question is not who is the favorite or who has won the tournament 12 times. You got that?

I think no, so i asked for another opinion. What is your problem?

First of all, there is no problem. I just think the question is odd, because it implies some doubt. So this tough draw consisting of Kyrgios, Thiem and Zverev...let me ask you something: Do you think Kyrgious would be able to beat Nadal on clay at RG? Zverev?

Nadal's draw at Roland Garros doesn't matter. Only two guys can beat him: Thiem and Djokovic. One has never beaten him at RG in 4 tries, and the other trails the head to head at RG 6-1, with his only win coming in Nadal's worst ever season. So again, since you've asked this question 3 times already, let me ask you, in order to hopefully answer it properly, what is it about this draw that makes you think Nadal wouldn't be able to win RG?

 

[calitennis127]

But speaking of ignoring reality: Novak has has a fair few fitness issues in the past 3-4 years. I guess you forgot he withdrew from the USO with injury.

And I guess you forgot that he came back a little over a month later and won Tokyo before reaching the quarters of Shanghai and then winning Paris. It clearly was not a severe injury.

And in case you are unaware, players pre-30 pull out of tournaments with injury too. Look at your own favorite. It happens all the time.

You can say there are no young ones coming up to challenge him for the next 5 years, especially at Slams. 5 years is a long time in tennis, especially for players who are 32-33. You've got your right to opinion, sure, but don't sneer at mine, as if yours is "right" and mine is "wrong."

Instead of talking in generalities and getting all emotional about my tone, why don't you directly address the questions that I posed so we can actually engage in a debate?

I asked you what young player meets the following two criteria to challenge Djokovic at Slams:

1) A daunting H2H match-up to the point of being a favorite against Djokovic most of the time, and

2) Someone you can trust to go far enough in Slams to meet Djokovic on a consistent basis.

Now can you throw out a single name who meets this standard? I'm not trying to be disrespectful here. I am just asking for a concrete answer to a clear-cut question so we can engage in a dialogue instead of some nebulous emoting session in which you express your vague sentiments.

Oh, and news flash: The reason I don't want Novak to have the most Slams is because I'm a Rafa fan. Duh.

I appreciate the candor. All I'm saying is that you shouldn't offer some ridiculous rationale for why your desired outcome is likely to happen. I want Djokovic to have more Slams than Nadal but do you see me saying that some random young players in the top 50 are going to beat Nadal at Roland Garros? No.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Nadal's draw at Roland Garros doesn't matter. Only two guys can beat him: Thiem and Djokovic.

I agree with this. Of course, if Novak beats him, it will be in the final and so Novak will lift the trophy. However, the same cannot be said of Thiem. I think at least in two clay tourneys in the past, Thiem took out Ralph, only to make it easy for someone else (I think Sasha) to lift the trophy.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Well, if you're resigned to the fact that both are going to eclipse your player you might as well start rooting for the one you hate less.

I am optimistic about Fed adding one more GS to his tally. Of course, one or both of the others can still pass him. I am not resigned to it. I am just keeping fingers crossed.

 

[Murat Baslamisli]

Yes. When it is all said and done, it will be Nole 22, Roger 21 and Rafa 21.