Who can beat Nadal at RG 2019?

[Moxie]

Rafa-Novak matches at RG:
2015: Novak, 7-5, 6-3, 6-1
2014: Rafa, 3-6, 7-5, 6-2, 6-4
2013: Rafa, 6-4, 3-6, 6-1, 6-7, 9-7
2012: Rafa, 6-4, 6-3, 2-6, 7-5
2006-08: Rafa three wins, all straight sets

The details on 2006-08 are unimportant as Novak wasn't yet prime and Rafa completely owned him. But things started to get interesting starting in 2012, when Novak was a year plus into his peak and hold his own against Rafa at RG. In 2013 the match was very, very close. 2012/14 were both close enough: not many players win a set off Rafa at RG. And of course 2015 was a real beat-down, but Novak was at his very best while Rafa was floundering.

Anyhow, I think it will be very, very close. I don't think either players are in their absolute peak anymore, but Novak is closer to it. Even if Rafa plays really well, he'll be hard-pressed to beat Novak. On paper I'd give Rafa a hair of advantage, but my gut says that Novak is going to beat him. But we'll have to see how clay season looks.

It's still always tedious that nothing before 2011 Novak matters, but whatever.

2013 wasn't as close as you like to remember, as I detailed for MikeOne above. The rest of Rafa's wins were fairly straight-forward except for a brief flair of inspiration from Novak. And 2015, as you note, even Roger could have beaten Rafa.

I think you underestimate Rafa at RG, by a lot, and over-estimate Djokovic. But I know everyone wants to, so you just will.

 

[El Dude]

It's still always tedious that nothing before 2011 Novak matters, but whatever.

2013 wasn't as close as you like to remember, as I detailed for MikeOne above. The rest of Rafa's wins were fairly straight-forward except for a brief flair of inspiration from Novak. And 2015, as you note, even Roger could have beaten Rafa.

I think you underestimate Rafa at RG, by a lot, and over-estimate Djokovic. But I know everyone wants to, so you just will.

I didn't say that nothing before 2011 matters - at least not in terms of overall matchup and relative greatness. But I am saying that it doesn't matter in terms of speculating about how they match-up now. Do you disagree? Does how they matched up in 2006-08 have any bearing whatsoever on 2019? I'd say no.

 

[Moxie]

I didn't say that nothing before 2011 matters - at least not in terms of overall matchup and relative greatness. But I am saying that it doesn't matter in terms of speculating about how they match-up now. Do you disagree? Does how they matched up in 2006-08 have any bearing whatsoever on 2019? I'd say no.

I'm not saying that it has any bearing going forward, but it does have a certain ring that Fed and Djoker fans like to repeat, as if by saying it over and over, they can negate the pre-2011 record. Same as some Fed fans like to pretend that he became so much lesser in 2008.

All that aside, I think your posting of the RG scores also doesn't tell the tale. I've made my case about the 2013 SF. 2012 and 2014, for all that Novak took a set, he was generally puny against Rafa, which you fail to note. Roger's 4-setter against Rafa was a far better effort in 2011. Sure, Novak looks strong, and Rafa couldn't put up much against him this AO just past. I still think Novak has to go a long way to be better than Rafa at RG, if Rafa is top-drawer. I think you could say that, based on so much past experience. You just want it to be different.

 

[Federberg]

I'm not saying that it has any bearing going forward, but it does have a certain ring that Fed and Djoker fans like to repeat, as if by saying it over and over, they can negate the pre-2011 record. Same as some Fed fans like to pretend that he became so much lesser in 2008.

All that aside, I think your posting of the RG scores also doesn't tell the tale. I've made my case about the 2013 SF. 2012 and 2014, for all that Novak took a set, he was generally puny against Rafa, which you fail to note. Roger's 4-setter against Rafa was a far better effort in 2011. Sure, Novak looks strong, and Rafa couldn't put up much against him this AO just past. I still think Novak has to go a long way to be better than Rafa at RG, if Rafa is top-drawer. I think you could say that, based on so much past experience. You just want it to be different.

I think there's some wishful thinking here, and it's perfectly understandable, so please don't think I'm getting at you. I really think that these last 2 matches Novak and Rafa have played highlights something that should be painfully clear to everyone... Novak is in Rafa's head as painfully as Rafa was ever in Roger's head. This presents a legacy challenge for him now. Can he turn it around again? I won't count him out, but for now Novak could play him in a wheelchair and it's not clear to me that Rafa finds a solution. Such is the nature of mental blocks

 

[shawnbm]

My vote is Bjorn Borg

 

[Ricardo]

Rafa-Novak matches at RG:
2015: Novak, 7-5, 6-3, 6-1
2014: Rafa, 3-6, 7-5, 6-2, 6-4
2013: Rafa, 6-4, 3-6, 6-1, 6-7, 9-7
2012: Rafa, 6-4, 6-3, 2-6, 7-5
2006-08: Rafa three wins, all straight sets

The details on 2006-08 are unimportant as Novak wasn't yet prime and Rafa completely owned him. But things started to get interesting starting in 2012, when Novak was a year plus into his peak and hold his own against Rafa at RG. In 2013 the match was very, very close. 2012/14 were both close enough: not many players win a set off Rafa at RG. And of course 2015 was a real beat-down, but Novak was at his very best while Rafa was floundering.

Anyhow, I think it will be very, very close. I don't think either players are in their absolute peak anymore, but Novak is closer to it. Even if Rafa plays really well, he'll be hard-pressed to beat Novak. On paper I'd give Rafa a hair of advantage, but my gut says that Novak is going to beat him. But we'll have to see how clay season looks.

Even if Rafa plays very well he can’t beat Novak? Exactly what Novak fans would say, well disguised for all these years....kudos! 2015 is an exception as we all know that Rafa was beat everywhere by a lot of players. Novak 2015 wasn’t as good as 2011 which was his best level ever, yet even that was too much for Rafa 2015 ... but it’s just one year where Rafa wasn’t Rafa. You just don’t know what you are talking about, as usual you hype up things and actually think you know something

 

[Ricardo]

Nadal’s A game slightly edges djokovic on clay but close.

Novak brought his A game in 2013 french open finals and lost, it was a classic, novak almost won. Novak was possessed in that match, at times looked unbeatable. Nadal, though, was able to raise his game to levels he cannot attain on hardcourts. He started hitting absolutley ridiculous down the line forehands, over and over again, painting the lines. I recall djokovic was in disbelief and for first time i saw novak unsure of whether he could beat nadal, even at his best. Rafa got very aggresive and his down the line fh saved him. In know some think that missed smash by novak was the decider but that’s bs .. if indeed novak was the better player, he would’ve won anyway... nadal simply raised his game and took the match away, djokovic didn’t give it him.

But it’s very bery close, novak’s A game can beat Nadal’s A game with a bit of luck...

People need to stop spreading the cali syndrome - everytime someone loses to nadal on clay it’s a laundry list of excuses. Nadal is 7-0 vs federer at FO? Like 7-1 vs. novak? At which point do these people look at themselves in the mirror and knock some sense into them? This is not a question of opponents never been able to muster their A games vs nadal, it’s nadal’s game! He has highest level ever attained on clay. Just look at the 08, 16 finals.. no-one has ever played at that level on clay, ever.

Like Stan’s best game edges Novak’s best on clay and hardcourt, but the question is how often both would bring their A game on the day. Also like Novak’s best edges Nadals at AO, yet in this instance Rafa uncharacteristically under-performed so was a beat down. It’s not possible to predict their form yet, and even the match prior cannot guarantee ones form.

 

[DarthFed]

I'm not saying that it has any bearing going forward, but it does have a certain ring that Fed and Djoker fans like to repeat, as if by saying it over and over, they can negate the pre-2011 record. Same as some Fed fans like to pretend that he became so much lesser in 2008.

All that aside, I think your posting of the RG scores also doesn't tell the tale. I've made my case about the 2013 SF. 2012 and 2014, for all that Novak took a set, he was generally puny against Rafa, which you fail to note. Roger's 4-setter against Rafa was a far better effort in 2011. Sure, Novak looks strong, and Rafa couldn't put up much against him this AO just past. I still think Novak has to go a long way to be better than Rafa at RG, if Rafa is top-drawer. I think you could say that, based on so much past experience. You just want it to be different.

The double standard is amusing. You complain that Nadal should have won the 2012 AO final while that is basically the exact same match as RG '13 where the loser was up a break in the 5th after stealing the 4th set.

You're ignoring a few things right now:

1. 2012-2014 is already a long time ago, can Rafa play at that level against someone who can actually push him and stay in rallies. And that someone is so badly in his head that an awful version of him at Wimbledon beat Nadal.

2. Novak no longer has the pressure of winning his first RG.

3. Novak has now beat Rafa at RG, weak version or not, it is still mentally better for him going forward.

 

[herios]

The double standard is amusing. You complain that Nadal should have won the 2012 AO final while that is basically the exact same match as RG '13 where the loser was up a break in the 5th after stealing the 4th set.

You're ignoring a few things right now:

1. 2012-2014 is already a long time ago, can Rafa play at that level against someone who can actually push him and stay in rallies. And that someone is so badly in his head that an awful version of him at Wimbledon beat Nadal.

2. Novak no longer has the pressure of winning his first RG.

3. Novak has now beat Rafa at RG, weak version or not, it is still mentally better for him going forward.

You rIse good oints. Age willl be a factor in their matchup going forward. Meaning, when they are getting older, how closer to their peak level they can play? Because I am not buying that when you are in your thirties you can still sustain your form at your peak evel for a long period.

 

[Moxie]

The double standard is amusing. You complain that Nadal should have won the 2012 AO final while that is basically the exact same match as RG '13 where the loser was up a break in the 5th after stealing the 4th set.

You're ignoring a few things right now:

1. 2012-2014 is already a long time ago, can Rafa play at that level against someone who can actually push him and stay in rallies. And that someone is so badly in his head that an awful version of him at Wimbledon beat Nadal.

2. Novak no longer has the pressure of winning his first RG.

3. Novak has now beat Rafa at RG, weak version or not, it is still mentally better for him going forward.

I've never said that Rafa "should" have won AO'12, and I've made the same point that it's the mirror of RG SF '13. The better player on the day, on his surface won, despite a 5th set lead in each. You have me confused with someone else.

 

[El Dude]

Even if Rafa plays very well he can’t beat Novak? Exactly what Novak fans would say, well disguised for all these years....kudos! 2015 is an exception as we all know that Rafa was beat everywhere by a lot of players. Novak 2015 wasn’t as good as 2011 which was his best level ever, yet even that was too much for Rafa 2015 ... but it’s just one year where Rafa wasn’t Rafa. You just don’t know what you are talking about, as usual you hype up things and actually think you know something

It is amusing how you completely misrepresent what people (myself) say in order to create an opportunity to be an asshole. Kudos.

One of the ways you misrepresent me--due to your very limited comprehension abilities--is you think I believe that I'm some kind of expert. I don't, and I've made that clear many times. Part of my interest in stats and tennis history is to better understand the game. I have said multiple times that I am relatively new to serious tennis fandom, and I like stats and history and use it as a way to explore the game further. So in a way you're view on me is exactly opposite of reality: I freely admit that I don't know a lot. But unlike you, I am interested in understanding truth beyond my personal opinion. People with fragile egos tend to be closed to anything other than what reifies their own viewpoint, and so go around fighting with everyone. Sound familiar? This is just sheer insecurity, always wanting to be right and having no real interest in deeper truth.

I really shouldn't waste time explaining myself to someone like you, but it is tedious when you wage the same accusation at me, again and again. I enjoy your takes on tennis, but as a human being--at least as you present yourself on this forum--you've got some serious issues. My guess is that you're either a fearful little man who uses the internet to work out issues in his real life, a rather typical "keyboard warrior," perhaps feeling inadequate and emasculated in your real life; or you're a typical overly macho guy stuck in an earlier era where you think might is right and have sense of others as actual human beings. Either way, you're the pure definition of an asshole. Or that's how you portray yourself on this forum!

 

[El Dude]

I'm not saying that it has any bearing going forward, but it does have a certain ring that Fed and Djoker fans like to repeat, as if by saying it over and over, they can negate the pre-2011 record. Same as some Fed fans like to pretend that he became so much lesser in 2008.

All that aside, I think your posting of the RG scores also doesn't tell the tale. I've made my case about the 2013 SF. 2012 and 2014, for all that Novak took a set, he was generally puny against Rafa, which you fail to note. Roger's 4-setter against Rafa was a far better effort in 2011. Sure, Novak looks strong, and Rafa couldn't put up much against him this AO just past. I still think Novak has to go a long way to be better than Rafa at RG, if Rafa is top-drawer. I think you could say that, based on so much past experience. You just want it to be different.

Huh? This is you wanting to "Fedal War" - you are an addict. Please don't draw me into your desire to squabble with everyone over Rafa. You think everyone is as biased as you are. With regards to Rafa vs. Novak, I'm not. Its not about what i want. I'm merely pointing out the recent record and matchup. I'm merely saying that it will be a very tough match. I don't think Rafa is a huge favorite; at most he's got a slight edge, but we'll know more in May. As others have pointed out, he's got a real "Novak problem" which I think will translate to a bloodbath at Roland Garros. Should be interesting.

 

[Moxie]

Huh? This is you wanting to "Fedal War" - you are an addict. Please don't draw me into your desire to squabble with everyone over Rafa. You think everyone is as biased as you are. With regards to Rafa vs. Novak, I'm not. Its not about what i want. I'm merely pointing out the recent record and matchup. I'm merely saying that it will be a very tough match. I don't think Rafa is a huge favorite; at most he's got a slight edge, but we'll know more in May. As others have pointed out, he's got a real "Novak problem" which I think will translate to a bloodbath at Roland Garros. Should be interesting.

I mentioned Roger in passing. Let's be honest, though, of the 4-setters between the 3, the Roger 2011 was the closest. I don't see why you need to chide me, or call me an "addict" to the Fedal wars. It was a cogent point. You and Darth are "mansplaining to me." You are reminding me of how the AO final went. As if I didn't watch. I remind you of how the last two RGs went, not to mention 9 of them before. You both give a stiff-hand. As if 11 RGs don't matter, and the H2H with Djokovic there doesn't matter. If you think it will be a bloodbath, that's your opinion. I find it funny, though, that defending Rafa's fairly immaculate record there makes me just "biased." As I mentioned on another thread, everyone is completely captivated by what they just saw and have no imagination for things being different in 4 months. Given that you're a stats guy, I wonder why you aren't more sanguine.

 

[Moxie]

I think there's some wishful thinking here, and it's perfectly understandable, so please don't think I'm getting at you. I really think that these last 2 matches Novak and Rafa have played highlights something that should be painfully clear to everyone... Novak is in Rafa's head as painfully as Rafa was ever in Roger's head. This presents a legacy challenge for him now. Can he turn it around again? I won't count him out, but for now Novak could play him in a wheelchair and it's not clear to me that Rafa finds a solution. Such is the nature of mental blocks

I do find it astonishing that, given Nadal's record at RG, I get accused of engaging in "wishful thinking" to say that Rafa's A-game at RG beats Novak's A-game there. I know you're enjoying that Novak is in Rafa's head, given all of the years that Rafa was in Roger's. And given that you gave it a whole thread. As I mentioned above, everyone is enjoying - A LOT - reminding me of it. But I don't see why I should be condescended to by the lot of you for suggesting that Rafa is better at RG. History is on my side. Project all you want into the future, but don't tell me I'm wishfully thinking. Novak has yet to prove he can beat a strong Nadal at RG.

 

[Carol]

Federists and Nolists, even all your wishes against Nadal (nothing new under the sun, same old same old) you should wait to see how this HC season finish and how the clay will start, what tournament they will play and in what conditions they will be. Anyway I hope to see Nadal playing much better in Acapulco (if he goes) and then IW where he will be on track and of course I don't expect such a horrible AO final result anymore, like Hewitt has said :"It was totally unusual what I saw". Of course one player playing Badminton and the other player taking all the advantage of it, that's all

 

[roberto]

No Carol I'm afraid it was not Rafa playing badly and Novak merely taking advantage. Rafa himself said after the match: "What can I say when someone plays much better than you in almost every aspect of the game, except congratulations to Novak and his team". This is not a world of "alternate facts": Novak playing lights out, and Rafa underwhelmed, some of which was certainly due to Novak's level of play. Next case.....

 

[El Dude]

I mentioned Roger in passing. Let's be honest, though, of the 4-setters between the 3, the Roger 2011 was the closest. I don't see why you need to chide me, or call me an "addict" to the Fedal wars. It was a cogent point. You and Darth are "mansplaining to me." You are reminding me of how the AO final went. As if I didn't watch. I remind you of how the last two RGs went, not to mention 9 of them before. You both give a stiff-hand. As if 11 RGs don't matter, and the H2H with Djokovic there doesn't matter. If you think it will be a bloodbath, that's your opinion. I find it funny, though, that defending Rafa's fairly immaculate record there makes me just "biased." As I mentioned on another thread, everyone is completely captivated by what they just saw and have no imagination for things being different in 4 months. Given that you're a stats guy, I wonder why you aren't more sanguine.

Mansplaining? Really? What could possibly make you think that how I am conversing with you has anything to do with you being female? Playing that card is low, disigenuous, and simply unnecessary, Moxie.

Anyhow, by "bloodbath" I mean that it will be close and a hard-fought victory, whoever wins. Do you disagree? Do you think Rafa will easily vanquish Novak? Bloodbath = lots of "blood," meaning it will be a hard-fought match.

And yes, all of those RGs don't matter so much because we have to look at the current context. The most meaningful years to look at were 2011-14, when both were in prime form. Before that and Novak was very good but not peak; after, Rafa struggled. During those four years they met three times; Rafa won all three, but two were four sets and one five. None were blow-outs. So if we take that as a baseline, and then consider how Novak has the momentum and psychological edge (Federberg's "in his head" theory), then I think we can say that at the least it is going to be a good match. But again, even 2011-14 isn't a great comp for 2019. It is a brave new world.

I think you are misinterpreting me saying that it will be a bloodbath, close, and that my gut says Novak will win, as being a knock on Rafa, or that I am saying he'll get a beat-down. I am not saying that. I am saying...well, re-read this post if you're not clear.

 

[tented]

And yes, all of those RGs don't matter so much because we have to look at the current context. The most meaningful years to look at were 2011-14, when both were in prime form. Before that and Novak was very good but not peak; after, Rafa struggled. During those four years they met three times; Rafa won all three, but two were four sets and one five. None were blow-outs. So if we take that as a baseline, and then consider how Novak has the momentum and psychological edge (Federberg's "in his head" theory), then I think we can say that at the least it is going to be a good match. But again, even 2011-14 isn't a great comp for 2019. It is a brave new world.

Even back in 2008, when Rafa won RG without dropping a set, his most difficult match was the SF against Novak, which ended in a third set tiebreak. Djokovic has long been a tricky opponent for Rafa, even at RG.

 

[Moxie]

Mansplaining? Really? What could possibly make you think that how I am conversing with you has anything to do with you being female? Playing that card is low, disigenuous, and simply unnecessary, Moxie.

Anyhow, by "bloodbath" I mean that it will be close and a hard-fought victory, whoever wins. Do you disagree? Do you think Rafa will easily vanquish Novak? Bloodbath = lots of "blood," meaning it will be a hard-fought match.

And yes, all of those RGs don't matter so much because we have to look at the current context. The most meaningful years to look at were 2011-14, when both were in prime form. Before that and Novak was very good but not peak; after, Rafa struggled. During those four years they met three times; Rafa won all three, but two were four sets and one five. None were blow-outs. So if we take that as a baseline, and then consider how Novak has the momentum and psychological edge (Federberg's "in his head" theory), then I think we can say that at the least it is going to be a good match. But again, even 2011-14 isn't a great comp for 2019. It is a brave new world.

I think you are misinterpreting me saying that it will be a bloodbath, close, and that my gut says Novak will win, as being a knock on Rafa, or that I am saying he'll get a beat-down. I am not saying that. I am saying...well, re-read this post if you're not clear.

I don't think I'm mis-reading "blood-bath." I think you're walking it back, with your reinvention. How is that to be misinterpreted? The term is most commonly known to mean a "slaughter," not a hard-fought contest. You seem to want me to say that yes, Novak is likely to win. I haven't said it won't be close, and that there isn't reason to think so. I know why you and others are salivating over the notion that someone might finally properly beat Rafa at RG, but there's no reason to brow-beat me for not being on the bandwagon. That's what I meant by you and Darth trying to "mansplain" it to me. Call it whatever...you are acting like I need to see "reason" even though a lot of history is on my side. You have plenty of folks plotzing over the notion that it will be Novak this year. I don't see it's my job to comply with that. You don't have to agree with my evaluation of history to date, but you don't have to condescend about it, either.

 

[Federberg]

I do find it astonishing that, given Nadal's record at RG, I get accused of engaging in "wishful thinking" to say that Rafa's A-game at RG beats Novak's A-game there. I know you're enjoying that Novak is in Rafa's head, given all of the years that Rafa was in Roger's. And given that you gave it a whole thread. As I mentioned above, everyone is enjoying - A LOT - reminding me of it. But I don't see why I should be condescended to by the lot of you for suggesting that Rafa is better at RG. History is on my side. Project all you want into the future, but don't tell me I'm wishfully thinking. Novak has yet to prove he can beat a strong Nadal at RG.

ha! I'm not enjoying Novak's dominance, I'm sorry but you've got me completely wrong. As some of my fellow Fed fans will confirm, I've been telling the likes of DF and Front for years that Novak might be a bigger threat to Roger's legacy than Rafa. I think I've even said in threads that I consider Novak's dominance of the field more appropriate for the so called GOAThood debate than anything Rafa has ever done. No.. this isn't about enjoyment, it's about my observations. Of course you're welcome to disagree, I didn't really expect you to have any other stance. But for the very reason that I said before the final that I wouldn't be surprised if Novak straight setted Rafa, I also wouldn't be surprised if Novak will also achieve dominance over him on clay now. What I saw at Wimbledon last year was revelatory for me. There's this narrative that has been created about Rafa that now looks mythical. He's like every other great player, if someone comes along that gives him fits in terms of match up, he's as human as the others. I don't see why that doesn't translate across surfaces because it's mental. Surface shouldn't matter if I'm right. I'm not saying I am, but it's my strong suspicion having watched their last two encounters. I'm far from happy about this by the way. If anything makes me chuckle, it's how Rafa fans are making the same sort of spirited defence Fed fans used to make once upon a time. I find the irony quite delicious, can you blame me?