Who can beat Nadal at RG 2019?

[Moxie]

I think he was simply paralysed with fear. If you watched his US Open matches against Khachanov and Thiem, you would have seen how well he was defending. However, those two matches took a toll on him and he had to retire vs Del Potro. RG is his domain and he will use every joule of energy to defend his title. He may give up on other tournaments but not RG.

I think "paralyzed with fear" goes a bit far, but he knows what happens to his game when Novak plays like that, and so yes, he got nervous and a bit dejected, even early on. Not a recipe for playing his full-flight game, obviously.

Believe it or not, some "so called" experts think Nole's in Rafa's head and he was avoiding him in that USO final! As well as he was playing "down under," you'd think his confidence was back, but there was something in his eyes that told even the commentators something's up!

It doesn't take an expert to say that Novak is in Rafa's head. But I don't at all think he was avoiding him at the USO. I think he got hurt.

 

[Moxie]

Let's see first Novak's form on clay before RG.
If he gets in groove, like he did a few years ago when he won in either Madrid or Rome, then I will be confident that Novak has a good chance to win in Paris as well.

Indeed, a long way to go until then. I still don't believe his A-game on clay beats Nadal's A-game on clay.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

It appears the Novak is not playing in MC. It is also possible that Ralph does not play in Madrid. In which case, we will be restricted to just Rome to see how they match up on clay currently. It is also possible that one or both of them get upset early in Rome and in that case, Rafa will have definite advantage over Novak at RG.

If Novak gets to beat Ralph once or twice before RG, it would be a huge advantage for Novak and he can go into RG with confidence.

We had never seen Ralph fail in the final of RG before. I hope to see it this year. :bat::bloodsucker1:

p.s. So, I will actually be rooting for Ralph in all his matches at RG except the finals.

 

[DarthFed]

Indeed, a long way to go until then. I still don't believe his A-game on clay beats Nadal's A-game on clay.

I think it does at this point. But if it is very sunny and hot then Nadal has a good chance no matter what. Short of that though and even at RG he's up against it.

 

[Moxie]

It appears the Novak is not playing in MC. It is also possible that Ralph does not play in Madrid. In which case, we will be restricted to just Rome to see how they match up on clay currently. It is also possible that one or both of them get upset early in Rome and in that case, Rafa will have definite advantage over Novak at RG.

If Novak gets to beat Ralph once or twice before RG, it would be a huge advantage for Novak and he can go into RG with confidence.

We had never seen Ralph fail in the final of RG before. I hope to see it this year. :bat::bloodsucker1:

Not a bad strategy from either to avoid each other. They've done it before. Worth noting, however, that Novak beating Rafa in a tune-up to RG has not gone on to win him the title. He did beat Rafa at MC in 2015, and then at RG...this in a year that everyone and his grandma was beating Rafa, but he lost the title to Stan. However, Novak has beaten him at tune-ups and lost to him at RG. If they mostly avoid each other before RG, better for both, historically. Especially Rafa, of course.

 

[Moxie]

I think it does at this point. But if it is very sunny and hot then Nadal has a good chance no matter what. Short of that though and even at RG he's up against it.

You can think Novak's A-game beats Rafa's A-game on clay, but there is no historical justification for it. Beyond that, I think you hope so. Think how many times they've played there. Djokovic beat him only once, and that with Rafa's C-/D+ game. I don't think it's just about the weather.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

You can think Novak's A-game beats Rafa's A-game on clay, but there is no historical justification for it. Beyond that, I think you hope so. Think how many times they've played there. Djokovic beat him only once, and that with Rafa's C-/D+ game. I don't think it's just about the weather.

I agree that there is no historical justification. But, there is a first time for everything and it may be this year (although when Rafa loses Nadalites will say he did not bring his A game).

 

[MikeOne]

Nadal’s A game slightly edges djokovic on clay but close.

Novak brought his A game in 2013 french open finals and lost, it was a classic, novak almost won. Novak was possessed in that match, at times looked unbeatable. Nadal, though, was able to raise his game to levels he cannot attain on hardcourts. He started hitting absolutley ridiculous down the line forehands, over and over again, painting the lines. I recall djokovic was in disbelief and for first time i saw novak unsure of whether he could beat nadal, even at his best. Rafa got very aggresive and his down the line fh saved him. In know some think that missed smash by novak was the decider but that’s bs .. if indeed novak was the better player, he would’ve won anyway... nadal simply raised his game and took the match away, djokovic didn’t give it him.

But it’s very bery close, novak’s A game can beat Nadal’s A game with a bit of luck...

People need to stop spreading the cali syndrome - everytime someone loses to nadal on clay it’s a laundry list of excuses. Nadal is 7-0 vs federer at FO? Like 7-1 vs. novak? At which point do these people look at themselves in the mirror and knock some sense into them? This is not a question of opponents never been able to muster their A games vs nadal, it’s nadal’s game! He has highest level ever attained on clay. Just look at the 08, 16 finals.. no-one has ever played at that level on clay, ever.

 

[DarthFed]

You can think Novak's A-game beats Rafa's A-game on clay, but there is no historical justification for it. Beyond that, I think you hope so. Think how many times they've played there. Djokovic beat him only once, and that with Rafa's C-/D+ game. I don't think it's just about the weather.

This isn't 2012-2014 anymore though, and Nole appears closer to that level. Also, the fact that he has won RG and beat Nadal there last time are factors. Of course weather isn't everything but any Nadal fan will be praying for a hot sunny day if they meet. You remember 2012 when Ralph's balls were bouncing lower in the wet conditions?

 

[DarthFed]

Just to reiterate I of course am not talking historically but taking into consideration where they are at currently and the recent meetings, yes I think Novak near the top of his game would beat Nadal at RG now. But we all know things can change fast. I think Nadal would really need to get a W against Nole at Rome or somewhere else and even without that Djokovic could get upset at RG. Nadal won't lose to anyone but Novak there.

 

[The_Grand_Slam]

Interesting trend in those matches. Sometimes those stats can be misleading but maybe there is something to it. The only thing I'd add is that Tsitsipas is a pretty good mover and Nadal's stats had to have been quite good against him.

Yeah but Tsitsipas was starting at such a disadvantage in rallies because of poor returns that it's difficult to gauge that match

 

[Moxie]

I agree that there is no historical justification. But, there is a first time for everything and it may be this year (although when Rafa loses Nadalites will say he did not bring his A game).

If Rafa loses to Novak at RG, at the risk of feeding your self-fulfilling prophecy, but do YOU think that would mean that Rafa actually brought his A-Game? Unlikely.

 

[Moxie]

Nadal’s A game slightly edges djokovic on clay but close.

Novak brought his A game in 2013 french open finals and lost, it was a classic, novak almost won. Novak was possessed in that match, at times looked unbeatable. Nadal, though, was able to raise his game to levels he cannot attain on hardcourts. He started hitting absolutley ridiculous down the line forehands, over and over again, painting the lines. I recall djokovic was in disbelief and for first time i saw novak unsure of whether he could beat nadal, even at his best. Rafa got very aggresive and his down the line fh saved him. In know some think that missed smash by novak was the decider but that’s bs .. if indeed novak was the better player, he would’ve won anyway... nadal simply raised his game and took the match away, djokovic didn’t give it him.

But it’s very bery close, novak’s A game can beat Nadal’s A game with a bit of luck...

People need to stop spreading the cali syndrome - everytime someone loses to nadal on clay it’s a laundry list of excuses. Nadal is 7-0 vs federer at FO? Like 7-1 vs. novak? At which point do these people look at themselves in the mirror and knock some sense into them? This is not a question of opponents never been able to muster their A games vs nadal, it’s nadal’s game! He has highest level ever attained on clay. Just look at the 08, 16 finals.. no-one has ever played at that level on clay, ever.

I think you remember that '13 SF wrongly. Novak was over-matched in much of it. (Note that he lost the 2nd set 1-6.) He was lucky to get to a 5th set, when Rafa served for it in the 4th. Yes, it was the most hard-fought of their FO contests, until Novak finally had a sub-par Rafa in 2015. But Novak was not the best player in that match. He was opportunistic.

 

[Moxie]

This isn't 2012-2014 anymore though, and Nole appears closer to that level. Also, the fact that he has won RG and beat Nadal there last time are factors. Of course weather isn't everything but any Nadal fan will be praying for a hot sunny day if they meet. You remember 2012 when Ralph's balls were bouncing lower in the wet conditions?

Funny that you feel the need to point out what a Nadal fan would be hoping for, in terms of ideal conditions. When the truth is, what you mean is what it would take for Djokovic to have an advantage there. Cold, wet and heavy. Fine, could happen. But don't pretend that the guy who's won it 11 times needs the ideal set of conditions to win. Novak is the guy who has lost to him in heat, in wet, on a humid day and on a perfectly nice day that needs the advantage of weather. Nadal has won it many times in all weather conditions.

 

[roberto]

I'm sorry but y'all should consider taking up hand gliding or something. The FO is 4+ months away, with LOTS of mileage between now and then, and we're parsing theoreticals on top of theoreticals.

 

[Moxie]

I'm sorry but y'all should consider taking up hand gliding or something. The FO is 4+ months away, with LOTS of mileage between now and then, and we're parsing theoreticals on top of theoreticals.

It's what we live for. And hang-gliding.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

If Rafa loses to Novak at RG, at the risk of feeding your self-fulfilling prophecy, but do YOU think that would mean that Rafa actually brought his A-Game? Unlikely.

If you are saying right now, before seeing the match, that Rafa did not bring his A game if he loses, then it is totally ridiculous. No one can argue with you in that case as your claim is not falsifiable.

Whether rafa brought on his A game or not should be dependent on how he played and not on the end result.

 

[El Dude]

Rafa-Novak matches at RG:
2015: Novak, 7-5, 6-3, 6-1
2014: Rafa, 3-6, 7-5, 6-2, 6-4
2013: Rafa, 6-4, 3-6, 6-1, 6-7, 9-7
2012: Rafa, 6-4, 6-3, 2-6, 7-5
2006-08: Rafa three wins, all straight sets

The details on 2006-08 are unimportant as Novak wasn't yet prime and Rafa completely owned him. But things started to get interesting starting in 2012, when Novak was a year plus into his peak and hold his own against Rafa at RG. In 2013 the match was very, very close. 2012/14 were both close enough: not many players win a set off Rafa at RG. And of course 2015 was a real beat-down, but Novak was at his very best while Rafa was floundering.

Anyhow, I think it will be very, very close. I don't think either players are in their absolute peak anymore, but Novak is closer to it. Even if Rafa plays really well, he'll be hard-pressed to beat Novak. On paper I'd give Rafa a hair of advantage, but my gut says that Novak is going to beat him. But we'll have to see how clay season looks.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Anyhow, I think it will be very, very close. I don't think either players are in their absolute peak anymore, but Novak is closer to it. Even if Rafa plays really well, he'll be hard-pressed to beat Novak. On paper I'd give Rafa a hair of advantage, but my gut says that Novak is going to beat him. But we'll have to see how clay season looks.

Sure, Ralph would like that considering he is going bald.

 

[Moxie]

If you are saying right now, before seeing the match, that Rafa did not bring his A game if he loses, then it is totally ridiculous. No one can argue with you in that case as your claim is not falsifiable.

Whether rafa brought on his A game or not should be dependent on how he played and not on the end result.

Rich from you...you pre-accused Rafa fans of saying that he wouldn't have brought his A-Game. You didn't see that presupposed match, either. But we do know who has the better record, by a lot, at RG. Why don't we see if it gets played or not, and how it comes out, before we start post-gaming it, eh?