Who can beat Nadal at RG 2019?

[Horsa]

I'm a lesbian trapped in a man's body

Lol.

 

[Moxie]

Nadal with only 25% of the votes. Amazing thread Moxie, Nadal fans and Nadal himself would be proud. Next, you should post a thread about who has a better lefty topspin forehand than Rafa so we can see tons of fanbases put down and underestimate Rafa again.

If you re-read the OP, I started it because a few of us had co-opted the WTF thread with talks of RG and esp. Djokovic's chances v. Nadal. That conversation didn't really transfer over, but I think you know my intention is never to just open up an opportunity for others to slag off Nadal. You will also have noticed that some of them don't even seem to need an excuse. I know you don't always approve of how I conduct myself as a Rafa fan around her, nor I you, but as you say, each to her/his own fun.

 

[mrzz]

For some odd reason I just thought of Schwartzman. It would take someone with a heart as big as his to do it.

 

[The_Grand_Slam]

For some odd reason I just thought of Schwartzman. It would take someone with a heart as big as his to do it.

His serve/rain interruption cost him this year.(unfortunately his height won't let him improve his serve significantly)
Was matching/bettering Nadal off the ground in their QF match

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Here are the current odds for winning RG'19. I am limiting to top four.

1. Rafa 1/1 (works out to 50%)
2. Novak 23/10 (works out to 30%)
3. Sasha / Thiem 15 (works out to about 6%)

 

[herios]

Here are the current odds for winning RG'19. I am limiting to top four.

1. Rafa 1/1 (works out to 50%)
2. Novak 23/10 (works out to 30%)
3. Sasha / Thiem 15 (works out to about 6%)

These odds sound about right to me.

 

[Denis]

These odds sound about right to me.

Expected odds to be slightly more favorable to Novak after the beat down. Also the analysis on the boards here seem to be that Nadal is not defending as well anymore, and that’s an important part of his clay game.

 

[DarthFed]

As for the title of the thread I think it's still just Novak. Tough to picture anyone from Next gen causing him problems especially since Zverev is awful in slams. Maybe Thiem is a bit more of a threat to him this year but hard to picture him beating Nadal at RG.

The odds look right to me mainly because Novak is much more susceptible to an upset at RG than Nadal.

 

[Denis]

As for the title of the thread I think it's still just Novak. Tough to picture anyone from Next gen causing him problems especially since Zverev is awful in slams. Maybe Thiem is a bit more of a threat to him this year but hard to picture him beating Nadal at RG.

The odds look right to me mainly because Novak is much more susceptible to an upset at RG than Nadal.

That’s a good point.

 

[atttomole]

Expected odds to be slightly more favorable to Novak after the beat down. Also the analysis on the boards here seem to be that Nadal is not defending as well anymore, and that’s an important part of his clay game.

Not sure about Nadal not being able to defend well anymore. I also heard that Nadal looked edgy before the match against Djokovic and Djokovic was fully aware of it. The nervousness could have affected Nadal’s performance. Everything looks more complicated when you play nervous. If he gets over that, he can still play his usual game.

 

[Denis]

Not sure about Nadal not being able to defend well anymore. I also heard that Nadal looked edgy before the match against Djokovic and Djokovic was fully aware of it. The nervousness could have affected Nadal’s performance. Everything looks more complicated when you play nervous. If he gets over that, he can still play his usual game.

I think it was a more general observation over the past year or so. In the match however he didn’t even bother to track down shots I’ve seen him track down for over a decade.

 

[Fiero425]

I think it was a more general observation over the past year or so. In the match however he didn’t even bother to track down shots I’ve seen him track down for over a decade.

Track down? There were several instances when Nadal didn't even move for a shot/winner hit by Nole! Rafa was "all at sea" Sunday!

 

[atttomole]

I think it was a more general observation over the past year or so. In the match however he didn’t even bother to track down shots I’ve seen him track down for over a decade.

I think he was simply paralysed with fear. If you watched his US Open matches against Khachanov and Thiem, you would have seen how well he was defending. However, those two matches took a toll on him and he had to retire vs Del Potro. RG is his domain and he will use every joule of energy to defend his title. He may give up on other tournaments but not RG.

 

[Fiero425]

I think he was simply paralysed with fear. If you watched his US Open matches against Khachanov and Thiem, you would have seen how well he was defending. However, those two matches took a toll on him and he had to retire vs Del Potro. RG is his domain and he will use every joule of energy to defend his title. He may give up on other tournaments but not RG.

Believe it or not, some "so called" experts think Nole's in Rafa's head and he was avoiding him in that USO final! As well as he was playing "down under," you'd think his confidence was back, but there was something in his eyes that told even the commentators something's up!

 

[The_Grand_Slam]

Not sure about Nadal not being able to defend well anymore. I also heard that Nadal looked edgy before the match against Djokovic and Djokovic was fully aware of it. The nervousness could have affected Nadal’s performance. Everything looks more complicated when you play nervous. If he gets over that, he can still play his usual game.

Comment from another forum -

Here is interesting stat: Nadal was 14-23 in W-UE from the baseline against Tiafoe before last game, he made 33 UE's in just 25 games against De Minaur. It's the only two players with decent movement he faced whole tournament.
What does it tell us? Nadal is taking too much risks. His game is almost one-two punch. His stat against Djokovic is 18-26 which is even better than the stat against Tiafoe. But Djokovic is not a Tiafoe. He has the serve, depth, extraordinary return, fantastic backhand and is the best in tennis history in "reading" opponents game.
Nadal making 26 UE's from the ground is the result of pressure, big big pressure. He tried to be aggressive, but Djokovic made him hit extrashot after extrashot in neutral rallies. Novak was just sublime and Nadal was his usual self in this tourney.

 

[AnonymousFan]

Himself.

 

[DarthFed]

Comment from another forum -

Interesting trend in those matches. Sometimes those stats can be misleading but maybe there is something to it. The only thing I'd add is that Tsitsipas is a pretty good mover and Nadal's stats had to have been quite good against him.

 

[Fiero425]

Interesting trend in those matches. Sometimes those stats can be misleading but maybe there is something to it. The only thing I'd add is that Tsitsipas is a pretty good mover and Nadal's stats had to have been quite good against him.

I have to agree! If Nadal was so brilliant to overcome Tsitsipas, he should have been equally as brilliant in his playing Djokovic right?

 

[DarthFed]

Weak 1HBH and weak return vs the best backhand and best return in history just for starters there.

 

[herios]

Let's see first Novak's form on clay before RG.
If he gets in groove, like he did a few years ago when he won in either Madrid or Rome, then I will be confident that Novak has a good chance to win in Paris as well.