Who can beat Nadal at RG 2019?

[El Dude]

I don't think I'm mis-reading "blood-bath." I think you're walking it back, with your reinvention. How is that to be misinterpreted? The term is most commonly known to mean a "slaughter," not a hard-fought contest. You seem to want me to say that yes, Novak is likely to win. I haven't said it won't be close, and that there isn't reason to think so. I know why you and others are salivating over the notion that someone might finally properly beat Rafa at RG, but there's no reason to brow-beat me for not being on the bandwagon. That's what I meant by you and Darth trying to "mansplain" it to me. Call it whatever...you are acting like I need to see "reason" even though a lot of history is on my side. You have plenty of folks plotzing over the notion that it will be Novak this year. I don't see it's my job to comply with that. You don't have to agree with my evaluation of history to date, but you don't have to condescend about it, either.

Moxie, please stop assuming or misinterpreting what I'm saying. You are basically accusing me of lying ("walking it back"). My use of bloodbath is exactly as I clarified and as it is defined--"an event or situation in which many people are killed in a violent manner." Note the word many; or in this case, two. If you take it otherwise, you are saying that I am lying, so where does that leave us?

And please stop grouping everyone together. We all hold different views on this, different attitudes towards Rafa. You thrive on constantly defending Rafa and attacking those you perceive as attacking him; I have told you in the past that I have very little interest in Fedal warring.

There is no bandwagon. Only the recognition that this could be a very close match and that I wouldn't be surprised if, after the bloodbath, Novak is the last man splaini..I mean, standing.

 

[El Dude]

ha! I'm not enjoying Novak's dominance, I'm sorry but you've got me completely wrong. As some of my fellow Fed fans will confirm, I've been telling the likes of DF and Front for years that Novak might be a bigger threat to Roger's legacy than Rafa. I think I've even said in threads that I consider Novak's dominance of the field more appropriate for the so called GOAThood debate than anything Rafa has ever done. No.. this isn't about enjoyment, it's about my observations. Of course you're welcome to disagree, I didn't really expect you to have any other stance. But for the very reason that I said before the final that I wouldn't be surprised if Novak straight setted Rafa, I also wouldn't be surprised if Novak will also achieve dominance over him on clay now. What I saw at Wimbledon last year was revelatory for me. There's this narrative that has been created about Rafa that now looks mythical. He's like every other great player, if someone comes along that gives him fits in terms of match up, he's as human as the others. I don't see why that doesn't translate across surfaces because it's mental. Surface shouldn't matter if I'm right. I'm not saying I am, but it's my strong suspicion having watched their last two encounters. I'm far from happy about this by the way. If anything makes me chuckle, it's how Rafa fans are making the same sort of spirited defence Fed fans used to make once upon a time. I find the irony quite delicious, can you blame me?

Good take, Federberg - I'm in agreement with the gist of it, in particular the part about Novak being more of a threat for GOATdom than Rafa. Rafa's resume has some glaring holes that may never be filled: a World Tour Finals and weeks at number one, while Novak could theoretically surpass Roger in just about every statistical category and end up with the best career resume.

If anything, Rafa fans can rest assured that no matter what, Rafa will remain the "surface GOAT" for years to come, while Roger is in real danger of being surpassed by Novak, who has a similar resume of balanced dominance.

 

[Carol]

No Carol I'm afraid it was not Rafa playing badly and Novak merely taking advantage. Rafa himself said after the match: "What can I say when someone plays much better than you in almost every aspect of the game, except congratulations to Novak and his team". This is not a world of "alternate facts": Novak playing lights out, and Rafa underwhelmed, some of which was certainly due to Novak's level of play. Next case.....

Nadal winning or losing never discredits his rivals but if you think or want to believe that he played well that final then you don't have any idea about this sport or you don't watch it too much. And of course Novak played his best, not doubts about it

 

[Moxie]

Moxie, please stop assuming or misinterpreting what I'm saying. You are basically accusing me of lying ("walking it back"). My use of bloodbath is exactly as I clarified and as it is defined--"an event or situation in which many people are killed in a violent manner." Note the word many; or in this case, two. If you take it otherwise, you are saying that I am lying, so where does that leave us?

And please stop grouping everyone together. We all hold different views on this, different attitudes towards Rafa. You thrive on constantly defending Rafa and attacking those you perceive as attacking him; I have told you in the past that I have very little interest in Fedal warring.

There is no bandwagon. Only the recognition that this could be a very close match and that I wouldn't be surprised if, after the bloodbath, Novak is the last man splaini..I mean, standing.

All good. If you'll stop talking over my position, I'll stop telling you what yours is. Nothing to do but wait for the clay season, anyway.

 

[El Dude]

All good. If you'll stop talking over my position, I'll stop telling you what yours is. Nothing to do but wait for the clay season, anyway.

True, true. It should be interesting, to say the least.

 

[Moxie]

True, true. It should be interesting, to say the least.

Maybe, maybe not. Let's face it: if Rafa wins his 12th RG, a lot of folks out there won't find that interesting. And even if Nadal and Novak hoover up the clay season, that won't be especially interesting either, even if Novak caps Rafa at RG, though I know that would make a lot of folks happy. What will be interesting will be if some young gun gets in there along the way. Now, that would be intriguing.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Maybe, maybe not. Let's face it: if Rafa wins his 12th RG, a lot of folks out there won't find that interesting. And even if Nadal and Novak hoover up the clay season, that won't be especially interesting either, even if Novak caps Rafa at RG, though I know that would make a lot of folks happy. What will be interesting will be if some young gun gets in there along the way. Now, that would be intriguing.

You know what would be truly interesting. Fed winning RG.

 

[El Dude]

Maybe, maybe not. Let's face it: if Rafa wins his 12th RG, a lot of folks out there won't find that interesting. And even if Nadal and Novak hoover up the clay season, that won't be especially interesting either, even if Novak caps Rafa at RG, though I know that would make a lot of folks happy. What will be interesting will be if some young gun gets in there along the way. Now, that would be intriguing.

Depends how it happens. If Rafa and Novak have an epic five setter and Rafa comes out on top, that will be interesting. If Novak is upset early on by Thiem or Zverev, and Rafa gets an easy draw to his 12th, that will be rather boring.

But yeah, I'm hoping that Thiem, Zverev, Tsitsipas and even a Coric make a larger mark at this upcoming RG.

 

[Moxie]

You know what would be truly interesting. Fed winning RG.

Well, it would be surprising. Though, if he plays, he'll probably be #4 in your beloved betting odds. They might put Thiem above him, but I think that might be over-determined.

 

[roberto]

Nadal winning or losing never discredits his rivals but if you think or want to believe that he played well that final then you don't have any idea about this sport or you don't watch it too much. And of course Novak played his best, not doubts about it

Carol we both agree that Novak played lights out and Rafa did not play well. Where I'm not sure we agree is that Rafa's level of play, in my opinion, was affected by :1)The fact that he was playing Novak who is in his head; and 2)Novak's extremely high level of play contributed to Rafa's lower than usual level

 

[Moxie]

Depends how it happens. If Rafa and Novak have an epic five setter and Rafa comes out on top, that will be interesting. If Novak is upset early on by Thiem or Zverev, and Rafa gets an easy draw to his 12th, that will be rather boring.

But yeah, I'm hoping that Thiem, Zverev, Tsitsipas and even a Coric make a larger mark at this upcoming RG.

If Rafa beats Novak in the final, even if it's not epic, I guess that would also be interesting?

 

[Carol]

Carol we both agree that Novak played lights out and Rafa did not play well. Where I'm not sure we agree is that Rafa's level of play, in my opinion, was affected by :1)The fact that he was playing Novak who is in his head; and 2)Novak's extremely high level of play contributed to Rafa's lower than usual level

Nadal has played many AO finals but unfortunately for one reason or another he has won only once. Don't you think that it could affected him a lot (and not Novak) and more after have been almost 5 months out of the court? he looked very nervous (anxiety) from the beginning of the match and of course Novak took some notes about it helping himself to play more comfortable and easier. Remember when Novak came back of his elbow surgery even that he was out only for one month, he was losing against anyone until Wimbledon, Nadal has lost against the best player of HC and fast surface and with more AO titles. Next time I'm sure he will do better it doesn't matter on what surface or against who

 

[Ricardo]

It is amusing how you completely misrepresent what people (myself) say in order to create an opportunity to be an asshole. Kudos.

One of the ways you misrepresent me--due to your very limited comprehension abilities--is you think I believe that I'm some kind of expert. I don't, and I've made that clear many times. Part of my interest in stats and tennis history is to better understand the game. I have said multiple times that I am relatively new to serious tennis fandom, and I like stats and history and use it as a way to explore the game further. So in a way you're view on me is exactly opposite of reality: I freely admit that I don't know a lot. But unlike you, I am interested in understanding truth beyond my personal opinion. People with fragile egos tend to be closed to anything other than what reifies their own viewpoint, and so go around fighting with everyone. Sound familiar? This is just sheer insecurity, always wanting to be right and having no real interest in deeper truth.

I really shouldn't waste time explaining myself to someone like you, but it is tedious when you wage the same accusation at me, again and again. I enjoy your takes on tennis, but as a human being--at least as you present yourself on this forum--you've got some serious issues. My guess is that you're either a fearful little man who uses the internet to work out issues in his real life, a rather typical "keyboard warrior," perhaps feeling inadequate and emasculated in your real life; or you're a typical overly macho guy stuck in an earlier era where you think might is right and have sense of others as actual human beings. Either way, you're the pure definition of an asshole. Or that's how you portray yourself on this forum!

Don’t worry about me thinking you are an expert, remember Pioline was a great underachiever in your book?
It’s just that you tend to talk like one, as if you are certain about something.....amuses me, pardon me if I corrected you. Oh I guess it does feel good to be right, and I’m less interested to be wrong about facts yet still talk loud....not the way to know about deeper truth....when you don’t even get the basics.

Btw I didn’t mean to hurt your feelings so those insulting words were not necessary, but those words definitely showed the one feeling insecure

 

[DarthFed]

Nadal has played many AO finals but unfortunately for one reason or another he has won only once. Don't you think that it could affected him a lot (and not Novak) and more after have been almost 5 months out of the court? he looked very nervous (anxiety) from the beginning of the match and of course Novak took some notes about it helping himself to play more comfortable and easier. Remember when Novak came back of his elbow surgery even that he was out only for one month, he was losing against anyone until Wimbledon, Nadal has lost against the best player of HC and fast surface and with more AO titles. Next time I'm sure he will do better it doesn't matter on what surface or against who

It always matters what surface and who against.

 

[britbox]

Two questions in the thread... Who can beat Nadal? and Who will win Roland Garros?

I think an in-form Djokovic answers the first... and if he answers that question, then he's odds on to answer the second.

If Nadal meets and beats Djokovic during the clay swing before Roland Garros then that changes things up dramatically. If Djokovic adds to the misery in that time frame then he'll be the favourite at RG.

 

[tented]

If Nadal meets and beats Djokovic during the clay swing before Roland Garros then that changes things up dramatically. If Djokovic adds to the misery in that time frame then he'll be the favourite at RG.

Agreed, but with one caveat: if Novak beats Rafa in Madrid, that wouldn’t mean as much as beating him in Monte Carlo or Rome.

 

[Murat Baslamisli]

Since full assault is almost never sustainable against Rafa at RG, the only possibility has to be Nole who can actually grind it out with him.

 

[Federberg]

It's a bit more nuanced I think. Weather will be critical. If it's a hot day then Novak at his very very best would probably struggle against Rafa if... IF.. Novak hasn't rented space in Rafa's head. That's the critical thing. I really believe these last 2 matches they've played hints at some serious psychological damage to Rafa. If the weather is cold and the ball isn't bouncing, I would put serious money on Novak

 

[Moxie]

Two questions in the thread... Who can beat Nadal? and Who will win Roland Garros?

I think an in-form Djokovic answers the first... and if he answers that question, then he's odds on to answer the second.

If Nadal meets and beats Djokovic during the clay swing before Roland Garros then that changes things up dramatically. If Djokovic adds to the misery in that time frame then he'll be the favourite at RG.

I agree with your point, and I think everyone else does, that the only one likely to beat Nadal at RG is Novak. Not to put too fine a point on it, but that would be the final, so then, yes, he'd win the title. I don't necessarily agree with your assessment that Novak winning a tune-up necessarily makes him the favorite at RG. Let's face it: Nadal will be the favorite at RG, if he's in it. You want to say he'll be your favorite. This is where El Dude has gotten crabby with me, but I think you're bandwagoning, too. Djokovic has beaten Nadal in the odd tune-up, and lost to him at RG. He even beat Nadal there, in a very crap year for Rafa, and didn't win at RG. Obviously, if Novak inflicts real damage on clay before RG, that would be a factor. But not the answer. Also, they have to meet in the finals. Then still, even Federberg, above, mentions the weather would matter. I know you all want Rafa to lose, and you hope that Novak will be the savior, but A) Nadal will be favored if he plays RG. B) most options for what happens in the tune ups are unlikely to impact the outcome of RG. OK, yes, if Nadal looks like crap and Novak blows him out of the water in some match, that would be an indicator. But that would have to happen. If they both go into RG with a fair deal of confidence, and a neutral record against each other, then you have to favor Nadal. Should they meet in the final, and the weather is fair, it favors Nadal. Should the weather be only half-crap, it favors Nadal. If they play the final on Phillipe Chartrier, which I'm guessing they will, it favors Nadal. I'm only saying that there's a lot of wishful thinking going on, and projecting from the AO final. I know why, but let's not pretend where it comes from. It's not "tennis acumen" that has you and El Dude and Darth favoring Novak. It's 'wishful drinking,' as Carey Fisher said.

 

[britbox]

I agree with your point, and I think everyone else does, that the only one likely to beat Nadal at RG is Novak. Not to put too fine a point on it, but that would be the final, so then, yes, he'd win the title. I don't necessarily agree with your assessment that Novak winning a tune-up necessarily makes him the favorite at RG. Let's face it: Nadal will be the favorite at RG, if he's in it. You want to say he'll be your favorite. This is where El Dude has gotten crabby with me, but I think you're bandwagoning, too. Djokovic has beaten Nadal in the odd tune-up, and lost to him at RG. He even beat Nadal there, in a very crap year for Rafa, and didn't win at RG. Obviously, if Novak inflicts real damage on clay before RG, that would be a factor. But not the answer. Also, they have to meet in the finals. Then still, even Federberg, above, mentions the weather would matter. I know you all want Rafa to lose, and you hope that Novak will be the savior, but A) Nadal will be favored if he plays RG. B) most options for what happens in the tune ups are unlikely to impact the outcome of RG. OK, yes, if Nadal looks like crap and Novak blows him out of the water in some match, that would be an indicator. But that would have to happen. If they both go into RG with a fair deal of confidence, and a neutral record against each other, then you have to favor Nadal. Should they meet in the final, and the weather is fair, it favors Nadal. Should the weather be only half-crap, it favors Nadal. If they play the final on Phillipe Chartrier, which I'm guessing they will, it favors Nadal. I'm only saying that there's a lot of wishful thinking going on, and projecting from the AO final. I know why, but let's not pretend where it comes from. It's not "tennis acumen" that has you and El Dude and Darth favoring Novak. It's 'wishful drinking,' as Carey Fisher said.

Yes, there is no other explanation as to why we might favour Djokovic in that scenario other than blind wishful thinking... you got me.

He's 7 and 7 in the last 14 encounters between the two on clay, beat Nadal in straight sets at Roland Garros the last time they met there, has beaten him in the last two slam finals, including a shellacking in Australia, is clearly deep in Nadal's head... If he adds insult to injury by winning in Rome or Monte Carlo... then yes, he would be my favourite to win in Paris. Favourite as in expecting him to win... rather than ever rooting for the guy.

Now here is the problem with your summary... if it was just wishful thinking from one or two of us Feddies to somehow protect Federer's legacy, then Djokovic winning in Paris would actually be a worse scenario... He's far more of a threat to Federer's 20 slam count than Nadal if that happens, given his superiority on other surfaces.

Maybe some of us actually do think Djokovic would be favourite in that scenario.. it's not like it's wildly far-fetched.