It’s stating the obvious, his chance is definitely not 7-1. The real indicator comes from the clay masters before RG should they meet, like in 2011 Novak was the fav if they would’ve met in the final...damn Roger spoiled the party and gift-wrapped himself.
Who can beat Nadal at RG 2019?
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The_Grand_Slam
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No the clay Masters are also not a good indicator IMO.
From 2011-16,
Nadal only won their clay Masters matches in 2012 but beat Djokovic 3 times in 2012-14.
I'm more interested in seeing how Djokovic can exploit the aggressive approach Nadal has adopted in 2017-18.If he's successful in doing that he will have his chances.
El Dude
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Well, what makes this interesting and debatable is that none of us knows what to expect. Rafa is the greatest clay-courter of all time and has the record at RG over Novak, but Novak absolutely drubbed him at the Australian Open and has "hand" in their, ah, relationship.
We'll adjust our speculations, tournament by tournament, but in the end we'll be left wondering until the match itself.
(Which is why Moxie is trying to muster all that false bravado - she's shitting bricks
).
We'll adjust our speculations, tournament by tournament, but in the end we'll be left wondering until the match itself.
(Which is why Moxie is trying to muster all that false bravado - she's shitting bricks
).
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*bump*
I felt like I got patted on the head a lot by some, esp. Darth and El Dude on this thread, for daring to think that Rafa, at his best, would win RG again. I did say he could beat Djokovic, which was your main contention, but Novak didn't make the date.
I felt like I got patted on the head a lot by some, esp. Darth and El Dude on this thread, for daring to think that Rafa, at his best, would win RG again. I did say he could beat Djokovic, which was your main contention, but Novak didn't make the date.
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I don't think so. Anyway, you're jumping in late to this conversation. Try reading back.
You want to tap yourself on the back for pushing back on everyone's post-AO confidence that Djokovic could knock down Nadal at the French. But that is to be expected. You are heavily biased toward Nadal, like a mother toward her children. I'm not surprised that you said this.
Nadal would've been heavy favorite vs Djokovic at FO, i mean, he's dominated Djokovic at RG. The 2015 loss was a a joke, Nadal didn't even win a single European clay court tournament before RG that year and was ranked outside top 5 i think. The closest Djoker ever got to beating an in form Nadal was in 2013 RG semis where he played at a very high level and still lost. Djokovic has a chance but the idea that Nadal would've been at his mercy is just bitter talk by nadal haters.
Bonaca
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I'm a huge fan of Novak and i really don’t like Nadal , but I would never ever say Novak is the favourite in RG. He just has the highest chances of doing the nearly impossible.
What I’m also a fan of , are epic battles between these two and i still have the feeling we will not have many opportunities to witness that again.
I definitely haven’t enough of the BIG 3 and especially these two!
only Novak fans drinking Kool-Aid can think Novak isn't an underdog (like everyone else) against Rafa at RG. This year Rafa would've straight setted Novak, if people have been watching.
so? Novak isn't even close to Rafa's level at RG, not this year. Clearly Rafa is a different player at RG than AO.Well, what makes this interesting and debatable is that none of us knows what to expect. Rafa is the greatest clay-courter of all time and has the record at RG over Novak, but Novak absolutely drubbed him at the Australian Open and has "hand" in their, ah, relationship.
We'll adjust our speculations, tournament by tournament, but in the end we'll be left wondering until the match itself.
(Which is why Moxie is trying to muster all that false bravado - she's shitting bricks
Bonaca
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When I wrote Novak is never the favourite at RG when facing Nadal, isn’t that mean he’s the underdog? What are you talking about?
The only thing I say, and keep on saying is, Novak can trouble Nadal the most on clay and RG.
We will never know how it would end up this year, I’m extremely sad about that, honestly, but to lose in straights against him, come on. Don’t disqualify yourself, we all love this sport.
Novak’s chances were definitely the highest of all possible opponents against Nadal.
DarthFed
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Silly bragging. If we knew the semis and finals would be against Federer and Thiem I'd tell you Nadal could win in a wheelchair. Novak went lame again to a degree, he's not playing awful but he's in a bit of a funk it seems.
There are two things Nadal has done to counter djikovic on clay. The main thing is his fh down the line. The closest anyone has gotten to beating an in form nadal at RG is djoker in 2013 semis. Djoker had that match won but nadal got very aggresive towards the end and hit many down the line fhs which startled novak... it’s a shot that gives djokovic a lot of problems and nadal needed that shot to bail him out.
The other shot nadal has worked on is his fast cross court bh, he unleashed this vs stan in 2017 finals and it was deadly.
Nadal lacked these two weapons in 2011 and i believe he worked on them mainly to counter djokovic’s undestructable bh. The pattern of hitting cross court fhs to djokovic’s bh was not working. The down the line fh and court bh, which nadal hits very hard and fast, have greatly increased nadal’s chances vs Djokovic, on clay. Djokovic is much less effective when he’s running down these two shots off his fh side than when he’s running down nadal’s fh cross court or nadal’s down the line bh off bh side. Around 2011-2012, i put it 55-45 nadal on clay, since 2013, especially after 2017.. i put it at 65-35 nadal on clay.
I agree with your analysis MikeOne. Man, if only Nadal was able to hit that backhand cross court with authority on ALL surfaces earlier on his career.
Also, I kinda wish he goes more on his BH DTL shot especially on grass and hardcourts.
tented
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The point wasn't to brag. I'm not really the type, except in jest on the draw challenge threads. I did feel like I got a lot of push-back from a lot of posters, just for suggesting that Nadal, based on history, had a solid chance, including v. Djokovic. Rather more than once accused of "wishful thinking" for suggesting that Nadal still could win RG v Djokovic. Ok, that match never materialized. And the scheduling due to rain hampered to players in the top half. But there are a lot of interesting, and accurate, predictions in here. Mrzz and others talked about Thiem... not a shocker, but he was the eventual finalist. I think it was you that mentioned that Nadal beating Djokovic in Rome, or vice-versa, could be significant, and it was for Nadal, and I think it was you that said Novak was the more susceptible to upset. El Dude said it would likely be an interesting clay season, and it was. Though I'm sure you'll agree with that as to the eventual denouement. But Ralph did a lot of losing, and we saw the rise of some youngsters. And Thiem, even tired, gained a lot of ground on Nadal.
El Dude
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This is unworthy of you. Bragging, Moxie? We know that Rafa won. And this is a total mischaracterization of what I was saying earlier. Never did I suggest that Rafa wouldn't win RG, just that there was no need to make a case for him, because he was the default favorite.
Oh wait...that was another thread. In this thread, I was razzing you. Do you really want to gloat, though? Dial back to post-AO and yes, RG looked much less certain. But since then we've seen two things clearly: Novak is far more vulnerable than his peak form of 2011/2015-16, and Rafa can still reach an unbeatable form...on clay.
I do think that Novak at his very best can beat Rafa anywhere, anytime. I suppose we'll never know what 2015 Novak vs. 2010/13 Rafa would look like at RG...would be fun to see, though. The closest we got was 2013, and that was very, very close - Rafa at the peak of his powers, but Novak not at his very best, but close enough to say that they were pretty evenly matched.
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GameSetAndMath
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Look at when was this thread started. Nov. 15 2018. Nadalites have nothing else to think about other than RG starting from Nov. 15 of last year. I feel sorry for them. 
Look at when was this thread started. Nov. 15 2018. Nadalites have nothing else to think about other than RG starting from Nov. 15 of last year. I feel sorry for them.
Bored much that you count starting dates of threads?
