When will Nadal beat Djokovic again?

[the AntiPusher]

Let's increase the sample size here, El Dude can you provide us with Rafa's records against Djoker and the top 30 ( please include 2008-2013 , his prime years . Also, note Rafa was the only player who had a winning H2h against everyone in 2013-2014.

I'm sorry, but what's the point of that? My post was in response to Kieran's statement that Rafa wasn't quite as good in 2011 as he was in 2010. The numbers rather definitively show us otherwise.

I'm not talking at all about other years, or Rafa vs. Novak in terms of their overall careers. I'm just addressing Kieran's statement about 2011.

No worries, the numbers are there if someone would like to fact check




Pp0p

 

[El Dude]

OK, I just don't know what you're getting at or how it is relevant to what Kieran and I are discussing? I'm not trying to hound you about it, but just want to understand where you are coming form and what you are trying to point towards.

 

[the AntiPusher]

OK, I just don't know what you're getting at or how it is relevant to what Kieran and I are discussing? I'm not trying to hound you about it, but just want to understand where you are coming form and what you are trying to point towards.

I don't understand your tone but if you are saying that the discussion is between just you and Kieran, I can opt or in laments term, butt out. No worries Brother

 

[Carol]

Everything has the time, I'm just waiting to see Rafa playing better and I don't think I have to wait too long anymore

 

[El Dude]

OK, I just don't know what you're getting at or how it is relevant to what Kieran and I are discussing? I'm not trying to hound you about it, but just want to understand where you are coming form and what you are trying to point towards.

I don't understand your tone but if you are saying that the discussion is between just you and Kieran, I can opt or in laments term, butt out. No worries Brother

NO, not at all! I'm just not understanding what you are getting at or how it relates to the 2010/11 thing. My "tone" is just confusion - not sure what you are getting at, or why it is relevant to the question at hand. Are you simply wanting to expand it from 2010/11? Or does what you say relate to Kieran's assertion that Rafa wasn't as good in 2011 as he was in 2010, and my refutation of it?

 

[Front242]

OTTH, Andy had a significant lead over Roger; by at least 8 matches, but it's turned around since Murray's better days of majors and medaling in the Olympics! Anybody? Been a long day and I'm fried! :cover :nono :angel: :dodgy:

Roger won all the slam encounters bar one in 2013 when he was already well over the hill (and it still took 5 sets to beat him). Andy's other victories, frankly, won't really go down in history. Credit to him for the Olympic victory but he beat an old fart who only won his last match prior to that 19-17 in the 3rd set so it was expected really. Even a young guy would be a wrecked after that, let alone a veteran pro on tour for years.

What the bloody heck! Federer is even further over that hill now, my friend, and he hammered Murray at Wimbledon! Fiero is correct! Murray was ahead in the H2H and now he barely wins a set. Over the hill? Then how the heck is he doing it? :cover

Roger is simply a better tennis player and 17 slams to 2 is why he's beating him even now. Always was better and always will be. He lost many of the early ones 'cos Andy's earlier style of play bored and frustrated him into making errors. He shouldn't ever have lost as many as he did in the beginning, but as I said, he won all the important ones.

 

[Kieran]

It's chicken and egg, Dude. Was Rafa as combative, calm and crunching in his USO final in 2011, as he was in the same match in 2010? Obviously not, and so therefore he wasn't playing as great. I gave credit to Novak for getting under his skin as the cause of this, but no number crunching can decide that he in fact WAS playing at the same level. Likewise, when he turned this around, Novak wasn't playing as great as in 2011...

 

[Kieran]

Roger won all the slam encounters bar one in 2013 when he was already well over the hill (and it still took 5 sets to beat him). Andy's other victories, frankly, won't really go down in history. Credit to him for the Olympic victory but he beat an old fart who only won his last match prior to that 19-17 in the 3rd set so it was expected really. Even a young guy would be a wrecked after that, let alone a veteran pro on tour for years.

What the bloody heck! Federer is even further over that hill now, my friend, and he hammered Murray at Wimbledon! Fiero is correct! Murray was ahead in the H2H and now he barely wins a set. Over the hill? Then how the heck is he doing it? :cover

Roger is simply a better tennis player and 17 slams to 2 is why he's beating him even now. Always was better and always will be. He lost many of the early ones 'cos Andy's earlier style of play bored and frustrated him into making errors. He shouldn't ever have lost as many as he did in the beginning, but as I said, he won all the important ones.

You're the one who said he lost because he was over the hill, buddy. That "hill" is far in the distance behind him by now, and he's hammering Murray now, barely dropping sets, sometimes even games? lot

 

[El Dude]

It's chicken and egg, Dude. Was Rafa as combative, calm and crunching in his USO final in 2011, as he was in the same match in 2010? Obviously not, and so therefore he wasn't playing as great. I gave credit to Novak for getting under his skin as the cause of this, but no number crunching can decide that he in fact WAS playing at the same level. Likewise, when he turned this around, Novak wasn't playing as great as in 2011...

Hmm...sounds like you are side-stepping a bit, Kieran.

Rafa played just as well in 2011 as in 2010 against every opponent other than Novak, as shown by the identical records against non-Novak opponents (actually, he was a hair better in 2011!)

That is incontrovertible. How can the numbers lie? What was the big difference on tour between 2010 and 2011? Simple: Novak was a much improved player, which directly impacted Rafa's record. I think we can safely say that if Novak was the same player in 2011 as he was in 2010, Rafa's 2010-level dominance would have continued into 2011 - because he was just as dominant against everyone else. But the *only* difference in Rafa's performance and record was that he went 0-6 against Novak.

To put it another way, Rafa was the exact same player in 2011 as he was in 2010, except when playing against Mr. Djokovic. Why? Because Novak was a much better player than he had been in 2010 and before.

 

[Carol]

Rafa wasn't the same player in 2011 like he was in 2010 and you know why? because his serve dropped considerably. I remember losing matches very tied against Novak because his poor serve and we know what happen to all of them when that shot doesn't work well, just ask Roger :nono

 

[nehmeth]

To put it another way, Rafa was the exact same player in 2011 as he was in 2010, except when playing against Mr. Djokovic. Why? Because Novak was a much better player than he had been in 2010 and before.

:snicker. Novak had the Todd Martin coached serve in 2010. We didn't find out til later that Martin was working for the Nadals! :cover

 

[El Dude]

Carol35, then explain the EXACT same record against all opponents other than Novak.

Anyhow, even if his served dropped off a bit, he must have made up for it in other ways. For instance, consider:

His ace% went from 5.2% in 2010 to 4.6% in 2011, but is return points one increased from 40.4% to 42.9%.

The problem with teasing out one part of a player's game--say, serving--is that you have to account for all the other parts. Players adjust, year to year, with micro-changes in their game. The benefit of looking at the actual results is that they represent the total sum of those changes - how the rubber meets the road.

And the numbers don't lie: 69-9 in 2011 and 69-10 in 2010 vs. non-Novak opponents. Again, if Rafa wasn't just as good in 2011 as he was in 2010, how is that explained?

 

[nehmeth]

And the numbers don't lie: 69-9 in 2011 and 69-10 in 2010 vs. non-Novak opponents. Again, if Rafa wasn't just as good in 2011 as he was in 2010, how is that explained?

Novak was a better player in 2011.

 

[Kieran]

It's chicken and egg, Dude. Was Rafa as combative, calm and crunching in his USO final in 2011, as he was in the same match in 2010? Obviously not, and so therefore he wasn't playing as great. I gave credit to Novak for getting under his skin as the cause of this, but no number crunching can decide that he in fact WAS playing at the same level. Likewise, when he turned this around, Novak wasn't playing as great as in 2011...

Hmm...sounds like you are side-stepping a bit, Kieran.

Rafa played just as well in 2011 as in 2010 against every opponent other than Novak, as shown by the identical records against non-Novak opponents (actually, he was a hair better in 2011!)

That is incontrovertible. How can the numbers lie? What was the big difference on tour between 2010 and 2011? Simple: Novak was a much improved player, which directly impacted Rafa's record. I think we can safely say that if Novak was the same player in 2011 as he was in 2010, Rafa's 2010-level dominance would have continued into 2011 - because he was just as dominant against everyone else. But the *only* difference in Rafa's performance and record was that he went 0-6 against Novak.

To put it another way, Rafa was the exact same player in 2011 as he was in 2010, except when playing against Mr. Djokovic. Why? Because Novak was a much better player than he had been in 2010 and before.

Nadal won the FO in 2010 without dropping a set. How did that go for him in 2010, without facing Novak?

Fact is, he was a confident player in 2010, and he wasn't in 2011. How could he be as good?

Look at your own post regarding Novak, where you said he was the same in 2012, as 2011, but without the same bug-eyed manic intensity. Then that means, he wasn't the same player. Likewise, Rafa in 2011 DIDN'T play the US Open final - for example - with the same force and calmness he played in 2010. Now, I've already given credit for this to Novak, but these are the intangibles that make the difference, buddy. Number crunching doesn't tell the complete story...

 

[nehmeth]

Fact is, he was a confident player in 2010, and he wasn't in 2011. How could he be as good?

Look at your own post regarding Novak, where you said he was the same in 2012, as 2011, but without the same bug-eyed manic intensity. Then that means, he wasn't the same player. Likewise, Rafa in 2011 DIDN'T play the US Open final - for example - with the same force and calmness he played in 2010. Now, I've already given credit for this to Novak, but these are the intangibles that make the difference, buddy. Number crunching doesn't tell the complete story...

He was the same confident player against everyone except one player. That pretty much points to the fact that the other guy had made some changes to his game.

2011 IW, Novak had never beaten Rafa in a final.
2011 Madrid, Novak had never beaten Rafa on clay
2011 Rome, Novak had never beaten Rafa on real clay
2011 Wimbledon, Novak had never beaten Rafa in a best of five

Going into those matches he had little or no reason to lack confidence. The thing that changed was Novak had made significant improvements. Granted, as the year went on and Novak handed him one loss after another, his confidence took a hit.

 

[Kieran]

Buddy, his confidence was shocked on clay. He wasn't the same man at Paris either, and he didn't face Novak there. In 2012, he was calm and more aggressive and he started to win again against Novak. The mental edge is decisive, especially in Rafa, and he wasn't the same strident player at any of the majors after Oz in 2011, that he was in 2010. This is a huge part of the game and Novak took that from him, it's not a slur on Novak, but once Rafa got back "the calm", as he calls it, he was stronger...

 

[nehmeth]

This is a huge part of the game and Novak took that from him,

Exactly. He took it from him. Going forward, it will take a precipitous drop in play from Novak for Ralf to beat him again.

 

[Kieran]

This is a huge part of the game and Novak took that from him,

Exactly. He took it from him. Going forward, it will take a precipitous drop in play from Novak for Ralf to beat him again.

Haha, we'll see brother. But bear in mind that Novak took it from him, then Rafa took it back. What goes around, can come around. Rafa looks like he's rediscovering "the calm..." :devil

 

[nehmeth]

Rafa looks like he's rediscovering "the calm..."

Possibly, but it's taken him a whole year and he still isn't close to it. Maybe if he can meet and beat Fed that will help him a little. :snicker

 

[El Dude]

Nadal won the FO in 2010 without dropping a set. How did that go for him in 2010, without facing Novak?

Fact is, he was a confident player in 2010, and he wasn't in 2011. How could he be as good?

Look at your own post regarding Novak, where you said he was the same in 2012, as 2011, but without the same bug-eyed manic intensity. Then that means, he wasn't the same player. Likewise, Rafa in 2011 DIDN'T play the US Open final - for example - with the same force and calmness he played in 2010. Now, I've already given credit for this to Novak, but these are the intangibles that make the difference, buddy. Number crunching doesn't tell the complete story...

Of course it doesn't, but ignoring the numbers--and not replacing them with other factual support--is a kind of bypassing. The numbers tell a very clear picture: the big, and only, difference in Rafa's level from 2010 to 2011 was Novak Djokovic.

But what we're saying isn't as far apart as it might seem. It is just a matter of emphasis. You are emphasizing that Rafa's drop in 2011--which again was *only* against Novak, not against anyone else--is mainly due to Novak getting into Rafa's head and messing with his confidence. I'm emphasizing Novak's improvement as a player, which is why he got into Rafa's head. It isn't a chicken-egg thing, because the causal direction is quite straighforward. The reason Novak got into Rafa's head is because Novak was a much better player than he was in 2010, not the other way around. Why? Well, as stated, Rafa was just as good against everyone else. Novak, on the other hand, improved against not only Rafa, but pretty much everyone.

This is a good instance of how just looking at things on the surface says one thing, that Rafa dropped a bit in 2011, but when you peel back a layer you can see that he in fact did not drop at all, but simply that Novak improved - because, again (and again and again), the only thing different in Rafa's performance are the matches against Novak. If we could say the same about Novak, that the only thing different in his record between 2010 and 2011 is his H2H against Rafa, then we could write it off as a match-up thing. But Novak improved against everyone else as well.