When will Nadal beat Djokovic again?

[Kieran]

Rafa wasn't the same player, buddy. A confident Rafa is not the same as a Rafa who feels harassed and hounded. We even saw this at Paris, where he didn't even face Novak. Move on twelve months to Paris 2012 and you see a different Rafa, and there he faced Novak. He had turned his head around.

The rest of the field in 2011 were as toothless as they usually are, that's why even in terrible years, these great players couldn't fall out of the top ten if they stood on a trapdoor with the words Top Ten written on it, and you opened it.

We're not a million miles from each other, but one thing we both agree on is that Novak bested Rafa on 2011 by getting inside his head. This was the great difference in Novak that year: stickability and passion. In previous years, he'd obligingly go away. Once Rafa got him out of his skull, Rafa start beating him in the big matches again...

 

[the AntiPusher]

Fact is, he was a confident player in 2010, and he wasn't in 2011. How could he be as good?

Look at your own post regarding Novak, where you said he was the same in 2012, as 2011, but without the same bug-eyed manic intensity. Then that means, he wasn't the same player. Likewise, Rafa in 2011 DIDN'T play the US Open final - for example - with the same force and calmness he played in 2010. Now, I've already given credit for this to Novak, but these are the intangibles that make the difference, buddy. Number crunching doesn't tell the complete story...

He was the same confident player against everyone except one player. That pretty much points to the fact that the other guy had made some changes to his game.

2011 IW, Novak had never beaten Rafa in a final.
2011 Madrid, Novak had never beaten Rafa on clay
2011 Rome, Novak had never beaten Rafa on real clay
2011 Wimbledon, Novak had never beaten Rafa in a best of five

Going into those matches he had little or no reason to lack confidence. The thing that changed was Novak had made significant improvements. Granted, as the year went on and Novak handed him one loss after another, his confidence took a hit.

Here is my issue with your post.. Where was Djoker at during the later part of Fed's prime and Rafa early prime years. What are his grand slam and master series titles? What are his H2H vs Federer, Rafa, Murray and JMDP? His numbers are quite a bit inflated due to Roger's decline and Rafa's slow return from two injuries that cause him to take a significant time away from the tour. Also, include Murray's back injury and JMDP's wrist injury. Sure, I give him credit for staying healthy and improving his game. However, to rank him higher than Rafa or compare him to Roger is pretty premature. IMO

 

[nehmeth]

Fact is, he was a confident player in 2010, and he wasn't in 2011. How could he be as good?

Look at your own post regarding Novak, where you said he was the same in 2012, as 2011, but without the same bug-eyed manic intensity. Then that means, he wasn't the same player. Likewise, Rafa in 2011 DIDN'T play the US Open final - for example - with the same force and calmness he played in 2010. Now, I've already given credit for this to Novak, but these are the intangibles that make the difference, buddy. Number crunching doesn't tell the complete story...

He was the same confident player against everyone except one player. That pretty much points to the fact that the other guy had made some changes to his game.

2011 IW, Novak had never beaten Rafa in a final.
2011 Madrid, Novak had never beaten Rafa on clay
2011 Rome, Novak had never beaten Rafa on real clay
2011 Wimbledon, Novak had never beaten Rafa in a best of five

Going into those matches he had little or no reason to lack confidence. The thing that changed was Novak had made significant improvements. Granted, as the year went on and Novak handed him one loss after another, his confidence took a hit.

Here is my issue with your post.. Where was Djoker at during the later part of Fed's prime and Rafa early prime years. What are his grand slam and master series titles? What are his H2H vs Federer, Rafa, Murray and JMDP? His numbers are quite a bit inflated due to Roger's decline and Rafa's slow return from two injuries that cause him to take a significant time away from the tour. Also, include Murray's back injury and JMDP's wrist injury. Sure, I give him credit for staying healthy and improving his game. However, to rank him higher than Rafa or compare him to Roger is pretty premature. IMO

uzzleduzzleduzzleduzzled

HUH??!! I think you're on the wrong thread Pushy. No one is equalling him to Fed or putting him past Ralf on the all time list... We're talking about 2011 and confidence levels.

 

[El Dude]

Kieran, a simple question: Do you agree that he was the same player against everyone else, as evinced by his 69-9 record (vs. 69-10 in 2010)? Or are those numbers misleading in some way?

As for the field, don't you think it uncanny how similar (almost exactly the same) his records are in 2010 and 2011? Don't you think that if Rafa weren't the same player he would have dropped at least a few more matches? He was actually better against Andy Murray in 2011 (4-1) than he was in 2010 (2-2). The same with Federer: 1-1 in 2010, 3-1 in 2011. Against both he was 7-2 in 2011, 3-3 in 2010. And you're still saying he wasn't the same player in 2011 as he was in 2010?

But yeah, a lot of tennis is mental. The main difference between Novak in 2012-14 and 2011/15 is not his skill-set, it is his force of determination and confidence. I don't think we can really separate components of ability all that well, that a player's ability includes a ton of factors that are hard to tease apart. But I just can't find an angle that says that Rafa was a lesser player in 2011 than he was in 2010. He was the same against every other player, and actually better against the Federer and Murray.

I almost wonder if in 2011 Rafa was thinking something like this: "OK, I finally proved that I'm the best tennis player in the world and now Novak does this?!" It must have been disconcerting. Rafa stole the baton from Roger in 2008, but then lost it again, largely due to injury - but also Roger's improved play and health from 2008. But he reclaimed the crown in 2010 and was the undisputed heavyweight champion. But then Novak stopped eating gluten .

I mean, I get it. You want to defend your guy. Saying that he was the same in 2011 as he was in 2010 could be taken to imply that Novak at his very best is better than Rafa at his very best. I actually don't look at it that way. Rather, I'd say that Novak's very best years--2011 and 2015--are better than any year Rafa has put together. That's hard to argue against. But I've also seen both play against each other at their very best, and Rafa is at least as good in a given match - or at least was. I'd even go so far as to say that Nadal's A game (which we haven't seen in almost two years) is a fraction better than Novak's A game. But what makes Novak so amazing is how readily he can access his best, and the fact that even if he isn't playing his A game, his B game is right there. Rafa is still struggling to play his B game, and Roger fluctuates more wildly than Novak and rarely is able to time his A game with Novak in a final.

I've often said that all pro tennis players are amazing players capable of brilliant tennis, but the greats are the ones who can access their brilliance with great frequency. Even though he's lost some movement and his forehand isn't what it was, we still see some amazing tennis from Roger - just not as frequently as we used to, in his prime. Right now Novak has his brilliance right there - he can access it almost seemingly at will.

But I ramble...

 

[Kieran]

It was an enjoyable ramble, brother.

Firstly, I'm not saying Rafa was a dog in 2011, but the margins are small, and he was definitely not as confident that year as the previous year, and therefore he was a lesser player. As Nehmeth said, Novak "took it from him" which still implies he lost something, but rightly gives the credit to Novak. Against other players, I think Rafa would have posted those numbers anyway because he wasn't so far off it that he became a schmoe. But he struggled in Paris, because he was rattled by Novak. The stats say, he beat Roger there, he won it again. The observable truth is, he was nowhere near as convincing as he was in 2010. Look at him again in 2012, and you can see that he dominated clay again, beating Nole three times.

He had excavated his skull and evicted the tenant.

But yeah, a lot of tennis is mental. The main difference between Novak in 2012-14 and 2011/15 is not his skill-set, it is his force of determination and confidence. I don't think we can really separate components of ability all that well, that a player's ability includes a ton of factors that are hard to tease apart.

Agreed.

I almost wonder if in 2011 Rafa was thinking something like this: "OK, I finally proved that I'm the best tennis player in the world and now Novak does this?!" It must have been disconcerting. Rafa stole the baton from Roger in 2008, but then lost it again, largely due to injury - but also Roger's improved play and health from 2008. But he reclaimed the crown in 2010 and was the undisputed heavyweight champion. But then Novak stopped eating gluten .

Absolutely agreed, and just when Rafa thought he'd finally have a few seasons like Roger had at his peak, beating nobodies to rack up cheap easy slams, Novak went Nova. :cover :cry

I mean, I get it. You want to defend your guy.

No, it's not a question of defending Rafa. I've praised his opponent and given him credit for what he did. Novak did something Roger has never been able to do, and that is, dominate Rafa. In fact, nobody has ever done that, and it took Rafa a while to figure him out and to fight back again. Rafa at his best is the best in the world. But that can be argued by Novak fans as well. There's nothing to defend Rafa against...

 

[the AntiPusher]

He was the same confident player against everyone except one player. That pretty much points to the fact that the other guy had made some changes to his game.

2011 IW, Novak had never beaten Rafa in a final.
2011 Madrid, Novak had never beaten Rafa on clay
2011 Rome, Novak had never beaten Rafa on real clay
2011 Wimbledon, Novak had never beaten Rafa in a best of five

Going into those matches he had little or no reason to lack confidence. The thing that changed was Novak had made significant improvements. Granted, as the year went on and Novak handed him one loss after another, his confidence took a hit.

Here is my issue with your post.. Where was Djoker at during the later part of Fed's prime and Rafa early prime years. What are his grand slam and master series titles? What are his H2H vs Federer, Rafa, Murray and JMDP? His numbers are quite a bit inflated due to Roger's decline and Rafa's slow return from two injuries that cause him to take a significant time away from the tour. Also, include Murray's back injury and JMDP's wrist injury. Sure, I give him credit for staying healthy and improving his game. However, to rank him higher than Rafa or compare him to Roger is pretty premature. IMO

uzzleduzzleduzzleduzzled

HUH??!! I think you're on the wrong thread Pushy. No one is equalling him to Fed or putting him past Ralf on the all time list... We're talking about 2011 and confidence levels.

Okay,, this " the year 2011 that Djoker overcame Rafa thread.. not the " When will Rafa defeat DJoker thread .. my baad

 

[nehmeth]

Here is my issue with your post.. Where was Djoker at during the later part of Fed's prime and Rafa early prime years. What are his grand slam and master series titles? What are his H2H vs Federer, Rafa, Murray and JMDP? His numbers are quite a bit inflated due to Roger's decline and Rafa's slow return from two injuries that cause him to take a significant time away from the tour. Also, include Murray's back injury and JMDP's wrist injury. Sure, I give him credit for staying healthy and improving his game. However, to rank him higher than Rafa or compare him to Roger is pretty premature. IMO

uzzleduzzleduzzleduzzled

HUH??!! I think you're on the wrong thread Pushy. No one is equalling him to Fed or putting him past Ralf on the all time list... We're talking about 2011 and confidence levels.

Okay,, this " the year 2011 that Djoker overcame Rafa thread.. not the " When will Rafa defeat DJoker thread .. my baad

The point was brought up when Rafa would win again... in the course of the discussion some believe that 2011 Djoker was better than 2015 Djoker. We had to digress a bit. Sorry Push.

 

[the AntiPusher]

uzzleduzzleduzzleduzzled

HUH??!! I think you're on the wrong thread Pushy. No one is equalling him to Fed or putting him past Ralf on the all time list... We're talking about 2011 and confidence levels.

Okay,, this " the year 2011 that Djoker overcame Rafa thread.. not the " When will Rafa defeat DJoker thread .. my baad

The point was brought up when Rafa would win again... in the course of the discussion some believe that 2011 Djoker was better than 2015 Djoker. We had to digress a bit. Sorry Push.

No worries

 

[Riotbeard]

uzzleduzzleduzzleduzzled

HUH??!! I think you're on the wrong thread Pushy. No one is equalling him to Fed or putting him past Ralf on the all time list... We're talking about 2011 and confidence levels.

Okay,, this " the year 2011 that Djoker overcame Rafa thread.. not the " When will Rafa defeat DJoker thread .. my baad

The point was brought up when Rafa would win again... in the course of the discussion some believe that 2011 Djoker was better than 2015 Djoker. We had to digress a bit. Sorry Push.

Can't we all just love both! By both I mean 2011 and 2015 Novak . It's not provable that 2015 Novak as not as good as 2011, because he hasn't been consistently pushed by a Rafa so we don't know how he would react, but I think 2011 Novak was the most impressive, given the competition.

That being said, we will see what is to come of Rafa, which is most important for him to become competitive with Novak again (much less beating him). Beating Cilic today and being impressive in these last couple tournaments could be signs of an upward trend, but bad results could make Asia seem more of a blip than a trend. Imagine if hadn't powered through the first to rounds against so-so competition.

 

[Backhand_DTL]

I'd ask Billie and Denisovich to weigh in if they were here...

A couple of weeks ago, I watched Novak play Ralf in 2011's Rome, Monte Carlo, Indian Wells and U.S. Open tournaments.

I have watched most of Novak's matches this year, his good ones and his 'enough-to-get-by" matches. I still contend, that his serve, depth of shot, approaches and volleys are much better than in 2011. Not sure how many of Novak's matches Kieran's watched this year, but I'm sure it's not nearly as often as he watched him in 2011. :snicker.

Apart from the depth of shot I agree regarding the things he improved. But I think his return and ground game, especially the backhand down the line, were considerably better in 2011.

On Hard Courts he was definitely better then and in my opinion only his level recently in Beijing and Shanghai is comparable to what he showed in 2011 until the US Open.
On Clay it's closer, but to me Rome 2011 was his peak level on that surface and beating Nadal who was much better than this year twice in straight sets gives 2011 the edge.
On Grass im my opinion Novak is better now as the elements of the game he improved are of bigger importance on Grass than elsewhere and his movement on the surface seems more comfortable than ever before.

In general I think that especially the improved serve compensates the slight decline in other parts of his game quite well, so his level is not that different to 2011 and also seems much more sustainable, as my impression is, that Novak can beat everybody apart from other top players close to their best quite routinely by playing rather conservative and extremely within himself.

 

[nehmeth]

Apart from the depth of shot I agree regarding the things he improved. But I think his return and ground game, especially the backhand down the line, were considerably better in 2011.

Having recently watched 4/5 of his matches from 2011, I will disagree. His depth of shot has been better this year. He has not used the backhand down the line this year as much as 2011, but when he does, it's often either setting him up for the kill shot or the winner itself. I just wish he'd use it a lot more.

All that said, even at his present levels when do you see Nads beating him?

 

[Great Hands]

What the bloody heck! Federer is even further over that hill now, my friend, and he hammered Murray at Wimbledon! Fiero is correct! Murray was ahead in the H2H and now he barely wins a set. Over the hill? Then how the heck is he doing it? :cover

Roger is simply a better tennis player and 17 slams to 2 is why he's beating him even now. Always was better and always will be. He lost many of the early ones 'cos Andy's earlier style of play bored and frustrated him into making errors. He shouldn't ever have lost as many as he did in the beginning, but as I said, he won all the important ones.

You're the one who said he lost because he was over the hill, buddy. That "hill" is far in the distance behind him by now, and he's hammering Murray now, barely dropping sets, sometimes even games? lot

off topic i know, but just to weigh in on this littel point:

fed has always beaten murray when he plays aggressively. the times when murray beat him, he was either gassed (e.g. olypmics and aosf13), or, in his earlier days, it was becuase he brought his b/c game and was willing to rally with murray from the back of the court, which alloowed murray to mess with him a bit. the 'over the gill; fed, as you put it, has;
a) a new racket
b) a highly aggressive approach, with far mroe net play

this new Fed is a nighmare matchup fro murray, who always struggled with fed when he played aggresiv3ly anyway. but now...fed is coming at murray cnstantly, giving himno time on the ball. he;s serving better with his new racket, and murray's old tactic of hitting to fed' bh to elicit errors works far less well with fed;s new racet too. e.f. see this year' wd sf, where murray hit to fed' bh (which adh given some joy earlier in his career 9its how he won the first set of wd f 12), and fed kept rippong back hand winners.

 

[Carol]

Question, what player has played great and consistent this last year? Nadal? Muzz? Roger? Berdych? Tsonga? nobody, the only one has been Novak and taking a good advantage of those players who have played very far of their best starting with Nadal and his significant drop for almost two years
Novak is not unbeatable at all, the problem is how bad and inconsistent the others players are playing :nono :s

 

[Kirijax]

We need to give Djokovic his due. This has been one of the most consistently top-level performances ever. Three Slams. In all four slams, he either defeated the defending champion or the guy he beat to win it last year. In every Masters and Slam he has been in the final. It's not his fault that all the other players have gotten hurt or are getting old or whatever. Djokovic has taken every challenge. The only slip up has been his loss to Wawrinka in the FO, but it took Wawrinka an incredible performance that he may never match again and a performance that everyone is still talking about. It's a good debate about whether Federer or Nadal's best season could match this. Time to give the man his due.

 

[Carol]

I give credit to Novak, and of course it's not his fault that the others have had injuries or dropping their game or getting old, like I said before he has taken a good advantage of it playing pretty well and consistent
But I'm waiting to see something else from Muzz and Nadal as great and smart players they are. Roger still is playing well but not like before. Wawrinka? well, he played a fantastic RG but...what else? Berdych? Fog? a lime and sand. I repeat, 0 consistency.
Hope to see a different and more competitive 2015 and not "today I'm playing well but tomorrow.....who knows" :huh:

 

[Kirijax]

I give credit to Novak, and of course it's not his fault that the others have had injuries or dropping their game or getting old, like I said before he has taken a good advantage of it playing pretty well and consistent
But I'm waiting to see something else from Muzz and Nadal as great and smart players they are. Roger still is playing well but not like before. Wawrinka? well, he played a fantastic RG but...what else? Berdych? Fog? a lime and sand. I repeat, 0 consistency.
Hope to see a different and more competitive 2015 and not "today I'm playing well but tomorrow.....who knows" :huh:

It would definitely be more fun with two or three players at about the same level going at it next year. But who?

 

[Front242]

That depends...3 crap players or 3 great players ? :snicker

 

[Carol]

I give credit to Novak, and of course it's not his fault that the others have had injuries or dropping their game or getting old, like I said before he has taken a good advantage of it playing pretty well and consistent
But I'm waiting to see something else from Muzz and Nadal as great and smart players they are. Roger still is playing well but not like before. Wawrinka? well, he played a fantastic RG but...what else? Berdych? Fog? a lime and sand. I repeat, 0 consistency.
Hope to see a different and more competitive 2015 and not "today I'm playing well but tomorrow.....who knows" :huh:

It would definitely be more fun with two or three players at about the same level going at it next year. But who?

We'll see but I'm also waiting for the young ones from whom I don't see too much improvement. Nishi injury by injury, Dimitrov? Raonic? when it seems that they are going to do something....they can't and the youngest ones exactly the same. I have more confidence on Rafa, Muzz and Roger, if they play well of course we will able to see better and more interesting competition though I have to say that Roger has reached several semis which means he has played pretty well

 

[Front242]

Dimitrov is just a wasted talent. Raonic is currently injured. A real shame alright that Nishikori is like glass 'cos when healthy he can challenge them all. I just wish Dolgopolov and Gulbis were more consistent 'cos they're another 2 guys who can really give the top players trouble when they're in form.

 

[Carol]

Dimitrov is just a wasted talent. Raonic is currently injured. A real shame alright that Nishikori is like glass 'cos when healthy he can challenge them all. I just wish Dolgopolov and Gulbis were more consistent 'cos they're another 2 guys who can really give the top players trouble when they're in form.

That's my point, a lack of consistency of most of them, young ones and not so young or maybe or I better would say a lack of sacrifice? the sport required it