No, that's not what I was talking about. The quote from the Italian official I cited goes a step further in saying that many of the deaths attributed to the coronavirus (even in a secondary sense) weren't really because of the coronavirus. I have little doubt that there is hysterical mischaracterization or even outright fraud going on in some of these cases (more so the former in Italy).
What on Earth is going on in the world today? It's gone mad
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No, that's not what I was talking about. The quote from the Italian official I cited goes a step further in saying that many of the deaths attributed to the coronavirus (even in a secondary sense) weren't really because of the coronavirus. I have little doubt that there is hysterical mischaracterization or even outright fraud going on in some of these cases (more so the former in Italy).
Oh please, stfu. Lol. Your little caveat here is hardly being mentioned in the context of Italian death tolls. People are focusing exclusively on deaths from the coronavirus. Hardly anyone is talking about people dying from non-coronavirus causes.
Federberg
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no you absolute fucking moron, you're wrong. The very point about fear of a systemic breakdown is predicated on the fact that non-corona virus patients might no longer have access to care
britbox
Multiple Major Winner
I think you're misreading the reporting and probably the quote. Italy IS reporting anybody dead who had coronavirus as a coronavirus stat. So yes, they are probably are over-reporting... but you are also under-reporting if you think 12% is a valid figure because they are reporting the underlying condition as the primary (direct) cause of death. The truth is probably somewhere in between... but it's not a competition and if you study what is going on in Italy, it's a horror show that can only be explained by the virus.
Likewise, some countries are probably under-reporting to a significant degree. Germany for instance, are classing most death cases against the underlying condition rather than the coronavirus.
I'm not saying that isn't a legitimate concern. I'm saying that the media hype - which you are of course buying with no skepticism - is not considering that angle. It's all about COVID-19 mowing people down by the thousands. The only reason you are mentioning others not getting care for different diseases is that I brought up the quote from the Italian official. You are not pointing out anything I haven't said. In case you didn't note it, I told Britbox that I don't think it's a good idea to flood hospitals with people who are just trying to be fashionable and "get tested" when they don't need to. I said that for the very reason that you are talking about.
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britbox
Multiple Major Winner
Absolutely correct. The breakdown in healthcare is giving doctors the choice to pick who survives in many cases. It's a saddening horror show in Italy, where doctors have been forced to select who gets ICU care.
Federberg
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I've been talking about that ALL the time you twit. Unlike you I don't start off from a political standpoint I'm trying to defend. I'm observing the data as it comes in. I'm reading the research about potential outcomes contingent on what sort of steps governments take. Your orange ape of a leader still hasn't come out to issue a nationwide edict. As a consequence I fear that before this is over Florida might look a lot like Italy, and there is no need for that to happen
Federberg
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South Korea’s Covid-19 testing triumph
A woman poses for a picture beside a cherry blossom tree in Seoul on Wednesday © Kim Hong-Ji/Reuters
It is the ultimate collision of coronavirus with traditional Korean culture: drive-through cherry blossom viewing. Citizens of Seoul are rolling though parks in their cars to celebrate the coming of spring after the harsh Korean winter, just as they might roll through McDonald’s to pick up a burger. Drive-through coronavirus testing centres are attracting lots of visitors too — though contributing a swab is hardly as pleasant.
South Korea’s concerted and effective testing regime is admired in the UK and US, where testing has so far been limited. With vaccines at least a year away from the market, testing and isolating cases early remains the only way to slow down the spread of the pandemic.
South Korea’s 600 testing sites have dealt with about 20,000 people a day since early February. Local manufacturers have been pumping out about 100,000 kits a day. That leaves them with a big surplus for export, just as a shortage of testing equipment is being felt around the world. More than 45 countries have requested test kits from South Korean manufacturers.
The minimum global demand for test kits is estimated to be about 700,000 kits a day. As cases rise and countries start expanding testing to people with mild cases, demand could rise up to seven times.
Shares of Seegene, a local molecular diagnostics company that makes most of the testing kits, and rival EDGC, have more than tripled this year. Seegene has more than 1,300 client companies, lowering fixed costs of making the kits. Sales and marketing costs have dropped — customers are clamouring for test kits. Analysts expect Seegene’s operating profit to grow by more than a third this year.
Yet, with Seegene shares now at a record 108 times forward earnings, test-kit makers are becoming a risky investment. Current demand levels are not sustainable. Once the outbreak tapers, there will be a sudden reversal in demand and profits — until the next epidemic.
Valuations are not the only risk. The tests work by trying to match viral material from nasal or oral swabs with the genetic sequence of the novel coronavirus using chemicals, or reagents. These find and attach to the virus if it is present. A global shortage of medical supplies, including reagents, is a big risk for medical authorities.
This will be heightened by second waves of infection. South Korea and China are already experiencing these. Students have come home from overseas as their colleges moved classes online. China said more than 1,500 confirmed cases without symptoms were under observation as of this Monday.
Here in South Korea, young people who are already at home are getting restless after almost two months of social distancing. The smartphone alerts that arrive several times a day warning of new cases in the vicinity no longer feel very alarming. Warmer weather and clear skies are making it harder to stay indoors.
That may explain why unlike most other countries — where the overall infection rates increase with age — the rate of infection for younger age groups are significantly higher in South Korea. The 20- to 29-year-old cohort has the highest infection rate of all groups, making up almost 30 per cent of total confirmed cases, more than double the rate of infection among people in their sixties. Most youngsters only get mild symptoms, which can make them casual about their infected status.
The renewed spread may cause virus mutations along the way. The 1918 flu pandemic, which also started in January, came back in a more contagious and destructive form in August after a short lull. More tests and lockdowns may be needed to stop that from happening again.
It is the ultimate collision of coronavirus with traditional Korean culture: drive-through cherry blossom viewing. Citizens of Seoul are rolling though parks in their cars to celebrate the coming of spring after the harsh Korean winter, just as they might roll through McDonald’s to pick up a burger. Drive-through coronavirus testing centres are attracting lots of visitors too — though contributing a swab is hardly as pleasant.
South Korea’s concerted and effective testing regime is admired in the UK and US, where testing has so far been limited. With vaccines at least a year away from the market, testing and isolating cases early remains the only way to slow down the spread of the pandemic.
South Korea’s 600 testing sites have dealt with about 20,000 people a day since early February. Local manufacturers have been pumping out about 100,000 kits a day. That leaves them with a big surplus for export, just as a shortage of testing equipment is being felt around the world. More than 45 countries have requested test kits from South Korean manufacturers.
The minimum global demand for test kits is estimated to be about 700,000 kits a day. As cases rise and countries start expanding testing to people with mild cases, demand could rise up to seven times.
Shares of Seegene, a local molecular diagnostics company that makes most of the testing kits, and rival EDGC, have more than tripled this year. Seegene has more than 1,300 client companies, lowering fixed costs of making the kits. Sales and marketing costs have dropped — customers are clamouring for test kits. Analysts expect Seegene’s operating profit to grow by more than a third this year.
Yet, with Seegene shares now at a record 108 times forward earnings, test-kit makers are becoming a risky investment. Current demand levels are not sustainable. Once the outbreak tapers, there will be a sudden reversal in demand and profits — until the next epidemic.
Valuations are not the only risk. The tests work by trying to match viral material from nasal or oral swabs with the genetic sequence of the novel coronavirus using chemicals, or reagents. These find and attach to the virus if it is present. A global shortage of medical supplies, including reagents, is a big risk for medical authorities.
This will be heightened by second waves of infection. South Korea and China are already experiencing these. Students have come home from overseas as their colleges moved classes online. China said more than 1,500 confirmed cases without symptoms were under observation as of this Monday.
Here in South Korea, young people who are already at home are getting restless after almost two months of social distancing. The smartphone alerts that arrive several times a day warning of new cases in the vicinity no longer feel very alarming. Warmer weather and clear skies are making it harder to stay indoors.
That may explain why unlike most other countries — where the overall infection rates increase with age — the rate of infection for younger age groups are significantly higher in South Korea. The 20- to 29-year-old cohort has the highest infection rate of all groups, making up almost 30 per cent of total confirmed cases, more than double the rate of infection among people in their sixties. Most youngsters only get mild symptoms, which can make them casual about their infected status.
The renewed spread may cause virus mutations along the way. The 1918 flu pandemic, which also started in January, came back in a more contagious and destructive form in August after a short lull. More tests and lockdowns may be needed to stop that from happening again.
Fair enough. But I have seen too many examples of people being utterly hysterical and irrational in the throes of a media wave that I have reason to be skeptical. Just look at the Russian collusion hoax.....everything being stated as fact in early 2017 has been debunked in subsequent years, but no one even cares anymore.
Likewise, I could see a report coming out in, say, August showing that 45% of the deaths reported in Italy were not actually due to coronavirus but the flu. But at that point no one will care and it will be forgotten. The media have gotten so many things wrong that we all have good reason to be skeptical.
britbox
Multiple Major Winner
In fairness, that would be on the Governer of Florida, not Trump. They actually raised that specific case at the conference today. Pence fielded the question and said all Americans should be following the Federal advice. If DeSantis? has gone rogue, then it's really on him. They did sidestep a couple of questions on the Governer specifically, but the advice was fairly clear.
britbox
Multiple Major Winner
OK, I'd hazard a guess that your post-virus modelling figures will be huge. Mammoth. Make the swine-flu look like a picnic. They'll factor in stuff like the lack of tests etc... Your mortality percentages will probably drop a lot also. Maybe less than 0.3- 0.5%. Just a guess, as it stands.
Federberg
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It's DeSantis directly but he's well known to be following Trump's directives. Perhaps now that Trump has been more explicit about the need to isolate he'll get with the programme
Lol.....hilarious. This whole episode for you has been an anti-Trump tirade. If you were so concerned with pure data and statistics and scientific questions, then you would be doing more than citing article after article about how South Korea is doing a better job testing than the United States. Have you mentioned anything about countries that aren't doing lockdowns but are doing fine (Japan, Taiwan, Sweden)? Have you discussed the WHO corruption or China? No, far from it. What you are actually doing is accepting the Chinese government claims and directing all your ire at Trump - who has simply been listening to the "experts" all along. He has been doing what you've been asking, yet you are still condemning him.
No political standpoint at all. Nope.
Florida has simply been taking the approach of Japan, Taiwan, and Sweden, who are all doing just fine. For once in your life you don't have to treat the CNN narrative about something as divine revelation. You can think for yourself once in a while. You should try it.
I actually agree with that. So then the question will be whether many countries and many areas overreacted with the far-reaching economic shutdowns.
(For the record, I have spoken now to a few people who either have tested positive for coronavirus or know someone who has it and they have generally described it as a "bad cold." In the end - once everyone's emotions settle and they get some perspective - I think there will be serious questions asked about whether the economic shutdowns were warranted. Of course, right now that is a completely unfashionable question to ask, but logical questions often are.)
britbox
Multiple Major Winner
Well, that's up to DeSantis. Some of Trump's previous statements on the virus have been plain dumb and reckless, but at today's presser, they were all coherent. It was a good press conference. The message to DeSantis, and other governers was clear. It was far and away the best press conference to date.
You do know that Trump's statements have mirrored those of the revered Dr. Fauci ever since January? Why don't you direct any criticism at Fauci for being inconsistent or "plain dumb and reckless"?
britbox
Multiple Major Winner
Do you think Fauci seriously suggested to Trump that Easter would be a great time to roll back the measures? or that 15 cases would be close to nil within the following week? I'd hazard a guess that Fauci has an IQ higher than 20.
No, but that was nothing more than Trump expressing some optimism about aiming for a short-term goal. It wasn't a final decision. In the end, he did what the "experts" asked for.
Have you looked at Fauci's statements in early February, like this one on February 7th in a TV interview?
"“We’ve been quite successful in preventing the persistent transmission from one person to another to another, because that’s the driving component of the outbreak, which we’re seeing go on at a very rapid pace in China. So if we can keep a lid on things, and as we get individual cases, by identifying them, isolating them, and doing contact tracing, hopefully, we’ll be able to keep the lid on whatever outbreak might occur in this country.”
That exactly mirrors what Trump was saying in February, yet Fauci gets zero blame and Trump gets all of it. Why is that?
britbox
Multiple Major Winner
No, it doesn't exactly mirror what Trump was saying at all. Fauci was talking about containing the virus, Trump basically claimed it would be eradicated the following week.
On that matter, since when did civil servants become accountable to the public on presidential decisions? Trump is the executive. If he thinks he's getting crap advice then change his advisors. It's not exactly a concept he's a stranger to.
You can't hang all your bad decisions on an advisor and then claim all the good ones as your own.
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The fist sentence of Fauci's February 7 quote was this: "We've been quite successful in preventing the persistent transmission from one person to another."
Those sentiments were echoed by Trump in early February - albeit with his usual bluster - but I don't see you calling Fauci a fool or saying that he had it all wrong or was creating a false sense of optimism.
That's not the point. The point is that Trump has been deferring to his advisors and when they have gotten it wrong, he has been the one to take the blame.
Agreed. Likewise you can't ask Trump to follow the experts' advice and then chastise him when they get it wrong or tell him things that turn out to be off-base.
