What on Earth is going on in the world today? It's gone mad

[britbox]

Wherever you are, if you think you have a bad leader, just think of Brazil. Now we have just been treated with pearls such as "Brazilians can swim on sewage and don't get sick, so they can resist a little virus" (no, I am not kidding, the president said this today, and he was not joking, that was actually part of his argument).

Well, in the things-that-can-only-happen-in-Brazil department, the guy is launching a national campaign for people to break the quarantines in their home states, and go back to work. But here is the crazy thing, the official government position, stated by the minister of health, is for social distancing and self-quarantine. The vice-president ensures that isolation is the government position. The rest of the cabinet, the leaders of both parliament houses. The absolute majority of state governors. But the guy goes on Twitter (the sucker is not even original) and calls his followers to get to the streets.

(remember, I am one that thinks that other solutions could have been implemented worldwide. But notice the verb tense: could. Now is too late, we are all committed to one plan. Anyway, in Brazil nothing short of quarantine and isolation works, for a multitude of reasons).

But there is light in the end of the tunnel. It is good to know that there is still intelligent life here. A local doctor, the researcher who found the link between the Zyka virus and microcephaly, came up with a brilliant idea (a Brazilian doctor, named Adriana Melo, from our northeast region, by far the poorest region of the country). She posted:

"The ones who support the end of isolation policies should sign a document giving up ventilators in case they are hospitalized with Covid-19."

So, we might have the worst president of all times, but we also came up with the undisputed best idea to deal with the pandemic power struggles.

I thought you must be exaggerating at first... but I've just read it. People can't be stupid enough to believe him, no?

 

[mrzz]

I thought you must be exaggerating at first... but I've just read it. People can't be stupid enough to believe him, no?

They* are organizing motorcades in his support. They are making things up, such as that doctors here in SP are filing any random deaths as Covid-19 to inflate the numbers. They are saying that Chloroquine is curing patients miraculously. They are saying - and no, I am not making this up -- the illuminati did it.

Oh, I forgot: Bolsonaro wants to revive the plan that mayor of Milan used at first. Yes, he wants to use the plan that was used IN THE PLACE WHERE A RECORD NUMBER OF DEATHS occurred. Yes, this is real. Today's news.

So even the specialized press that covers financial markets was having a completely negative tone while covering this. Now comes the crazy part -- or better -- just another crazy part. Reading the comments section, a lots of comments from his supporters blaming the communist media for the backslash.Yes, a publication specialized in financial markets is communist. Man, you could not make this up.


(*) By "they" I mean the faction who believe the guy. Hard core Bolsonaro supporters who are around 20% of the electorate. His total approval rate is around 30%. They have a name, "Bolsominions".

 

[Federberg]

I was just chatting with some friends. It's scary to think that China did a hard shutdown at a time when the number of cases was about 830, and two weeks later it had already jumped to 35,000. Even if there's scepticism about China's numbers, the more I hear from scientists, the more I understand that while there are differences in data capture the differences/ seeming under-capture is not about misinformation. So look past all that, and consider this... the US hasn't really effected any sort of shut down at all, the number of cases already exceed 100,000. What are we to expect two weeks from now??

 

[britbox]

I was just chatting with some friends. It's scary to think that China did a hard shutdown at a time when the number of cases was about 830, and two weeks later it had already jumped to 35,000. Even if there's scepticism about China's numbers, the more I hear from scientists, the more I understand that while there are differences in data capture the differences/ seeming under-capture is not about misinformation. So look past all that, and consider this... the US hasn't really effected any sort of shut down at all, the number of cases already exceed 100,000. What are we to expect two weeks from now??

I'd worry more about 4 or 5 weeks from now if Trump proceeds with an Easter style "VE Day". Let's be frank, you can't prevent contagion in the US - it's too rife already.

You can only slow down the spread and try and protect health resources. Europe shows that overloading health resources is the biggest factor regarding death rates. Unpleasant decisions need to be made.

Most of the infected Aussies returning to base came back from the US, not China. That suggests it's far more rampant than figures suggest.

 

[Federberg]

I'd worry more about 4 or 5 weeks from now if Trump proceeds with an Easter style "VE Day". Let's be frank, you can't prevent contagion in the US - it's too rife already.

You can only slow down the spread and try and protect health resources. Europe shows that overloading health resources is the biggest factor regarding death rates. Unpleasant decisions need to be made.

Most of the infected Aussies returning to base came back from the US, not China. That suggests it's far more rampant than figures suggest.

yes agreed. Markets have rallied this week in anticipation of all these stimulus stuff. Now it's signed, we're expected the bear phase to re-start, probably after monthend rebalancing. What no one's really accounting for is if (when??) the numbers go parabolic in the US. If instead of some Easter parade nonsense Trump is forced to capitulate and recommend an extraordinary lockdown... Lordy it'll be carnage..

 

[Federberg]

This perfectly encapsulates my feelings on bailouts....

 

[Federberg]

And here are some scary charts....

this one's obviously a few days back, but you get the point about the likely path...

 

[tented]

it's different to an extent I agree. This can't be blamed on corporates, but if they have spent the last decade using zero interest rates to borrow and buy back shares. That is a monstrous transfer of wealth from the government to the wealthy. And now they can get off scot free and ordinary folks backstop their losses again? It's untenable. I fear that there will be a societal breakdown of great consequence in the future. For me the thing to do is, where bail outs are necessary, accountants should determine what funds are needed to ensure the entities are able to continue as a going concern and shareholders and the government share the load. That effectively means that shareholders are wiped out, and the government immediately looks to sell the companies on the market. That's my view anyway...

This reminded me of an article which includes Warren Buffet’s views on executive pay. An excerpt:

Good CEO's deserve adequate compensation. However, Warren Buffett, chairman of Berkshire Hathaway, says that the ability of corporations to rein in skyrocketing CEO pay is the "acid test" of corporate governance reform.

EXAMPLES OF LARGE EXECUTIVE COMPENSATION IN THE US

On January 3, 2007, chairman and CEO of Home Depot Inc. Bob Nardelli's severance package was $210 million.

InterActive Corporation (IAC) chairman and CEO Barry Diller's 2006 compensation was $295 million. (Also see our article CEO calls Corporate Governance Researchers Birdbrains!)

David H. Brooks, chairman and CEO of DHB Industries made over $250 million as DHB profited from supplying bullet-proof vests to US Marines in Iraq despite 5,000 vests being returned as ineffective in May 2005. His base salary of $70 million in 2004 was 13,000% more than his 2001 compensation of $525,000. In 2004, Brooks sold company stock worth about $186 million, initiating a drop in DHB’s share price from more than $22 to $6.50, after which he was put on "administrative leave".

Exxon Mobil's chairman and CEO, Lee Raymond's 2006 retirement package was about $400 million.

The CEOs in the examples above also held the position of chairman of the board of directors, a board which must according to fundamental corporate governance principles - and often by law - fulfill their fiduciary duties, monitor the performance of the CEO, hold the CEO accountable, represent the interests of the shareholders in the boardroom, and act in the best interests of the corporation's shareholders.

Lucian Bebchuk and Yaniv Grinstein of the Harvard Law School write in their paper The Growth of Executive Pay that during the period 1993-2003, executive pay "has grown much beyond the increase that could be explained by changes in firm size, performance and industry classification."

According to United for a Fair Economy and Institute for Policy Studies: "If the minimum wage had risen as fast as CEO pay since 1990, the lowest paid workers in the US would be earning $23.03 an hour today (2006), not $5.15 an hour."

NOTHING SUCCEEDS LIKE FAILURE

Warren Buffett, chairman of Berkshire Hathaway, has said that the ability of corporations to rein in skyrocketing CEO pay is the "acid test" of corporate governance reform. In a shareholder report dated February 28, 2006, he states, "Too often, executive compensation in the U.S. is ridiculously out of line with performance." "Getting fired can produce a particularly bountiful payday for a CEO. Indeed, he can “earn” more in that single day, while cleaning out his desk, than an American worker earns in a lifetime of cleaning toilets. Forget the old maxim about nothing succeeding like success: Today, in the executive suite, the all-too-prevalent rule is that nothing succeeds like failure."

Much to the dismay of some shareholders, Hank McKinnell, former Pfizer CEO, retired with an $83 million retirement package in July 2006. During his tenure, which started in 2001, Pfizer's stock fell more than 40 percent. Pfizer's new CEO, Jeffrey Kindler, who also became its chairman in December 2006, said that Pfizer need to transform its business methods. On January 22, 2007, Pfizer announced that will cut 10,000 jobs in order to save $2 billion in costs.

CORPORATE GOVERNANCE ISSUES

In a May 2004 letter to shareholders, Warren Buffett wrote about the inadequacy of corporate governance structures among U.S. companies. "(If) Corporate America is serious about reforming itself, CEO pay remains the acid test," Buffett added "The results aren't encouraging." Buffett criticized lavish pay packages and the "lapdog behavior" of directors, calling the situation an "epidemic of greed."

At the 2004 AGM of Berkshire Hathaway, Warren Buffett, Chair, and Charles Munger, Vice Chair, strongly criticized the board process used to determine executive compensation. "The typical large company has a compensation committee," said Buffett. "They don't look for Dobermans on that committee, they look for Chihuahuas..., Chihuahuas that have been sedated."

 

[tented]

Bill Gates’s thoughts on current events. I can’t believe CNN didn’t upload this themselves, so this is the only video I can find of the entire interview.

 

[don_fabio]

Bill Gates’s thoughts on current events. I can’t believe CNN didn’t upload this themselves, so this is the only video I can find of the entire interview.

Good interview. Uncharted teritory indeed.

It is pretty chaotic all over the world when you look at how each country is dealing with the virus differently. Possibly the best option would be to lock down completely all countries as mandatory as soon as some unkown virus appears and spreads between humans. Probably all of this would be over a lot sooner with a lot less economic damage and dead bodies.

 

[Federberg]

Divorces spike after 'spending time during coronavirus quarantine'

Officials believe the sharp increase of divorce applications around the country could be caused by the fact that partners have spent too much time in close quarters during self-isolation.

www.dailymail.co.uk

 

[Moxie]

I just read that 832 people died in Italy in the past 24-hours. This is shocking. I was hoping things were flattening out there. I appreciate all of the interesting things that people have posted and will read.

 

[Federberg]

Deaths in the US are now above 2,000. It doubled in 2 days! When is Trump going to get serious about a nationwide strategy And how on earth does this not come back and bite him? He had better hope things don't get out of control in his most ardent red States

 

[mrzz]

I just read that 832 people died in Italy in the past 24-hours. This is shocking. I was hoping things were flattening out there. I appreciate all of the interesting things that people have posted and will read.

The number is high, but the curve is flattening. You need to go back to March 19 to see around 400 deaths (427), so the number doubled in around 9 days. Daily numbers fluctuate (so it is better to look at averages), but earlier the time to double the count was surely shorter than that. Other way to look at it is to notice that on March 21 (a week ago) there were 793 deaths, which is pretty close to 832. This is a flattened curve. If we were on an aggressive exponential regime, over the course of a week the numbers would be on another scale. So, is it growing still? The overall curve yes, I guess Lombardy curve on a descent already. But is surely flattened.

 

[mrzz]

^as a comparison, the number of fatalities in the US is basically doubling every two days.

 

[Moxie]

The number is high, but the curve is flattening. You need to go back to March 19 to see around 400 deaths (427), so the number doubled in around 9 days. Daily numbers fluctuate (so it is better to look at averages), but earlier the time to double the count was surely shorter than that. Other way to look at it is to notice that on March 21 (a week ago) there were 793 deaths, which is pretty close to 832. This is a flattened curve. If we were on an aggressive exponential regime, over the course of a week the numbers would be on another scale. So, is it growing still? The overall curve yes, I guess Lombardy curve on a descent already. But is surely flattened.

This is some comfort.

^as a comparison, the number of fatalities in the US is basically doubling every two days.

This is no comfort.

 

[Federberg]

Sunday Times reporting that a top advisor is saying the lockdown might need to last until June. Meanwhile the blame shifting is starting in the UK. Following Trump's shameful tactics. Focus on fixing the problem instead of trying to find someone else to blame!

 

[Federberg]

It's very easy to see how different countries have handled this crisis. The West hasn't handled things well at all in the main. Maybe Germany is an exception, they went full on with testing immediately. The UK tried to be clever and differentiate themselves from the continent with their herd immunity nonsense. I refuse to believe there wasn't in part a desire to show the benefits of Brexit and "independent thinking". Spain finally looks to have reached the point where the curve is starting to flatten. Here are charts for Spain, UK and the absolute best crisis management anywhere in Korea. Bear in mind the Koreans started acting at roughly the same time the US should have started (they both got their first fatalities within a 24hr period)...

 

[Federberg]

And bear in mind the Koreans haven't had to institute a lockdown at all. They've been testing everyone. They have a pandemic law that kicks in when required that gives the government access to everyone's mobile phone geolocation and they use it to track people who test positive. They go back 2 weeks and find anyone who has been in close proximity. They are required to self isolate, and they comply. Meanwhile the charts for the US are shockingly bad and trending into nightmare territory...

 

[Federberg]

Then....



and now...



what a tool..