US Politics Thread

[Federberg]

At last senior GOP Senators are starting to call out Trump. Corker pretty much called Trump a liar today. Credit to McCain and Corker, but one probably only has months to live, and the other is not running again next year. I guess we have to give more credit to the likes of Sass and Flake for being willing to call out the President even though they aren't planning on quitting Congress. That's 4 of them, I have no doubt that McKowski and Collins would do what needs to be done, so potentially 6 Senators represent a threat to Trump. It all means nothing of course as long as the House is the way it is

 

[mrzz]

It's not a book, it's ok to break it.... Wanna be there mrzz and help them beat up the cop?

In other times of my life, if you would have asked me this, I would promptly answer "YES". Had my fair share of cops beating people with no reason. But now, older and wiser, I will always say no to violence, unless in self defense or in very specific contexts.

Speaking about context, you're putting my words out of context. I never said that breaking things is automatically ok. All I said was: people are politically entitled to ask that some figures should not be honored by monuments. I stand by this completely.

Yes, "to ask" is completely different than "to destroy". Only in very specific situations I would agree with the destruction of monuments. But there are indeed a few here in Brazil that I would gladly help to put down...

BTW I could not check the vid itself yet, bad internet for the moment.

 

[Federberg]

Wow! Now Flake is talking on the Senate floor. He's not going to run again in 2018. He's unleashing on Trump and GOP complicity. Thank goodness for integrity. It still exists. I think we're watching history here. 3rd Republican Senator in one week who has called Trump a liar

 

[Federberg]

The more I think about it, the more certain I am that this tax cut idea could well be the most stupid thing this administration does. You can talk supply side economics and Laffer curves until you're blue in the face but timing is everything. First of all the oft mentioned Reagan tax cuts worked for a specific reason. And by "worked" I mean seemed to result in higher fiscal revenue. If you cut taxes when the economy has been crushed by 15+% interest rates at the same time as the Fed starts aggressively cutting, you'll get higher economic activity and thus higher fiscal revenues, but don't assume the better fiscal position is due to the tax cuts. It's the interest rates of course! But Republicans have been able to use that happy coincidence to peddle a lie for a generation. No one talks about the experiment not working in Kentucky in recent years for example, but that's exactly what they tried.

Anyway, the reason I believe this is going to be a disaster, is that unlike in the early 80s, you have an economy which for all intents and purposes is close to full employment (yes yes, some might say that there is a massively under utilised labour force, but you need to fit the skills to the job, and corporates are screaming that there's a skills shortage), and now you want to cut taxes? Economics 101, if you stimulate an already strong economy you'll force the Fed to hike rates even more aggressively which will slow the economy down and cause fiscal revenues to drop. Anyone in the GOP claiming that a tax cut right here and now is what the US economy needs is lying or stupid.

As a never Trumper, I actually wouldn't mind if they do this though. It'll guarantee that Trump loses in 2020, because by then the Fed would have killed the economy and the stock market will be far far lower. We can talk about Dems and Reps, but at the end of the day what really matters is the economy. Even the Donald won't be able to suck enough Russian cock to win that election

 

[Federberg]

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...ort-s-daughter-s-texts-reveal-ties-Trump.html

 

[britbox]

The more I think about it, the more certain I am that this tax cut idea could well be the most stupid thing this administration does. You can talk supply side economics and Laffer curves until you're blue in the face but timing is everything. First of all the oft mentioned Reagan tax cuts worked for a specific reason. And by "worked" I mean seemed to result in higher fiscal revenue. If you cut taxes when the economy has been crushed by 15+% interest rates at the same time as the Fed starts aggressively cutting, you'll get higher economic activity and thus higher fiscal revenues, but don't assume the better fiscal position is due to the tax cuts. It's the interest rates of course! But Republicans have been able to use that happy coincidence to peddle a lie for a generation. No one talks about the experiment not working in Kentucky in recent years for example, but that's exactly what they tried.

Anyway, the reason I believe this is going to be a disaster, is that unlike in the early 80s, you have an economy which for all intents and purposes is close to full employment (yes yes, some might say that there is a massively under utilised labour force, but you need to fit the skills to the job, and corporates are screaming that there's a skills shortage), and now you want to cut taxes? Economics 101, if you stimulate an already strong economy you'll force the Fed to hike rates even more aggressively which will slow the economy down and cause fiscal revenues to drop. Anyone in the GOP claiming that a tax cut right here and now is what the US economy needs is lying or stupid.

As a never Trumper, I actually wouldn't mind if they do this though. It'll guarantee that Trump loses in 2020, because by then the Fed would have killed the economy and the stock market will be far far lower. We can talk about Dems and Reps, but at the end of the day what really matters is the economy. Even the Donald won't be able to suck enough Russian cock to win that election

Maybe... it'll be hard to predict how this translates to votes. I think the premise it was originally being sold under during the original election campaigning was twofold - 1) That US companies paying tax abroad would return home and 2) Tax breaks at home would translate to more local investment and by proxy more jobs.

That was what I believe was being sold to the voters but I'm thinking more that Trump basically has a ticklist of things he wants to do based on what he found to be the most irritable in his own business dealings - red tape, regulation, tax. If these reforms go through then he stands to profit enormously on a personal level, as do many others at the top of the food chain.

I'm hugely interested in this as I'm wondering how the west positions itself in a global economy going forward, but my gut feeling is that it will just serve the needs of the elite and as per usual, Joe Blow on the street will end up picking up the tab. There might be reduced tax bills for some voters but more than offset by a hike in interest rates that you mentioned. Still, I don't think it's cut and dried and will watch with interest. History tells us that tax cuts don't translate to massive internal investment by the beneficiaries.. at least nowhere near the scale that politicians tell us. I laughed out loud when I read the LNP prospectus here in Australia for Queensland... They are apparently going to create 500,000 jobs by cutting payroll tax... Really???

 

[Federberg]

Maybe... it'll be hard to predict how this translates to votes. I think the premise it was originally being sold under during the original election campaigning was twofold - 1) That US companies paying tax abroad would return home and 2) Tax breaks at home would translate to more local investment and by proxy more jobs.

That was what I believe was being sold to the voters but I'm thinking more that Trump basically has a ticklist of things he wants to do based on what he found to be the most irritable in his own business dealings - red tape, regulation, tax. If these reforms go through then he stands to profit enormously on a personal level, as do many others at the top of the food chain.

I'm hugely interested in this as I'm wondering how the west positions itself in a global economy going forward, but my gut feeling is that it will just serve the needs of the elite and as per usual, Joe Blow on the street will end up picking up the tab. There might be reduced tax bills for some voters but more than offset by a hike in interest rates that you mentioned. Still, I don't think it's cut and dried and will watch with interest. History tells us that tax cuts don't translate to massive internal investment by the beneficiaries.. at least nowhere near the scale that politicians tell us. I laughed out loud when I read the LNP prospectus here in Australia for Queensland... They are apparently going to create 500,000 jobs by cutting payroll tax... Really???

If you look at US corporates over the last decade they've built up huge cash surpluses and have had no inclination to invest at home. What money they do utilise tends to be used to buy back shares. What that does is to increase earnings per share which is one of the most popular metrics for share valuation. Imagine if these same companies are somehow incentivised to repatriate the money, what reason would they have to increase investment at home? If anything they'll be disincentivised because the dollar is likely to appreciate. If that happens production in the US becomes less competitive. It's silly really, these things are always a lot more complicated than bar talk would have you believe. For me, the dumbest aspect of this is that stock markets are making record highs, the economy is growing, and the central bank is under pressure to normalise rates. Cutting taxes at this moment are more likely to force interest rates higher. And interest rates are a far more important factor for employment and growth than taxes

 

[britbox]

If you look at US corporates over the last decade they've built up huge cash surpluses and have had no inclination to invest at home. What money they do utilise tends to be used to buy back shares. What that does is to increase earnings per share which is one of the most popular metrics for share valuation. Imagine if these same companies are somehow incentivised to repatriate the money, what reason would they have to increase investment at home? If anything they'll be disincentivised because the dollar is likely to appreciate. If that happens production in the US becomes less competitive. It's silly really, these things are always a lot more complicated than bar talk would have you believe. For me, the dumbest aspect of this is that stock markets are making record highs, the economy is growing, and the central bank is under pressure to normalise rates. Cutting taxes at this moment are more likely to force interest rates higher. And interest rates are a far more important factor for employment and growth than taxes

Yeah, they tried doing it in Louisiana and it just blew a hole in the state budget.

 

[Federberg]

Yeah, they tried doing it in Louisiana and it just blew a hole in the state budget.

didn't realise about Louisiana, but I knew about Kentucky. There is so much that's misunderstood about economics even in this day and age. It's quite scary actually

 

[mrzz]

The more I think about it, the more certain I am that this tax cut idea could well be the most stupid thing this administration does. You can talk supply side economics and Laffer curves until you're blue in the face but timing is everything. First of all the oft mentioned Reagan tax cuts worked for a specific reason. And by "worked" I mean seemed to result in higher fiscal revenue. If you cut taxes when the economy has been crushed by 15+% interest rates at the same time as the Fed starts aggressively cutting, you'll get higher economic activity and thus higher fiscal revenues, but don't assume the better fiscal position is due to the tax cuts. It's the interest rates of course! But Republicans have been able to use that happy coincidence to peddle a lie for a generation. No one talks about the experiment not working in Kentucky in recent years for example, but that's exactly what they tried.

Anyway, the reason I believe this is going to be a disaster, is that unlike in the early 80s, you have an economy which for all intents and purposes is close to full employment (yes yes, some might say that there is a massively under utilised labour force, but you need to fit the skills to the job, and corporates are screaming that there's a skills shortage), and now you want to cut taxes? Economics 101, if you stimulate an already strong economy you'll force the Fed to hike rates even more aggressively which will slow the economy down and cause fiscal revenues to drop. Anyone in the GOP claiming that a tax cut right here and now is what the US economy needs is lying or stupid.

As a never Trumper, I actually wouldn't mind if they do this though. It'll guarantee that Trump loses in 2020, because by then the Fed would have killed the economy and the stock market will be far far lower. We can talk about Dems and Reps, but at the end of the day what really matters is the economy. Even the Donald won't be able to suck enough Russian cock to win that election

I think the more you sophisticate your analysis, in Trump's case, the more you get farther away from the truth.

In this case I bet you that he will hang to the tax cut policy till kingdom come. Apart from a few conservative stances that are surely just for show -- as I doubt the guy gives a rats ass to any values, be it conservative, progressive or whatever -- Trump has less and less common ground with the traditional Republican party values. Low taxes are one the Republican flags, and he won't take his hand out of it.

 

[Federberg]

I think the more you sophisticate your analysis, in Trump's case, the more you get farther away from the truth.

In this case I bet you that he will hang to the tax cut policy till kingdom come. Apart from a few conservative stances that are surely just for show -- as I doubt the guy gives a rats ass to any values, be it conservative, progressive or whatever -- Trump has less and less common ground with the traditional Republican party values. Low taxes are one the Republican flags, and he won't take his hand out of it.

Oh I don't doubt that. I'm just expounding on what I think the consequence of successful tax legislation is likely to be for the American economy. Let me state here that I am a supporter of lower taxes. But it has to be done in a sustainable fashion, otherwise if the deficit explodes taxes are likely to be forced higher than they were previously

 

[isabelle]

the Donald wants death sentence for the guy who attacked NY on last 31th but is it possible in NY ? I thought it was abolished in this state ? I am wrong ?

 

[Murat Baslamisli]

the Donald wants death sentence for the guy who attacked NY on last 31th but is it possible in NY ? I thought it was abolished in this state ? I am wrong ?

Not in NY but if they make it a federal case...

 

[mrzz]

Sentence the guy to death would be a pretty stupid political move. Even if terror has much more motivations than simply whichever extremist cause is used as argument, in this case it is evident that there is an actual religious extremists involved and not only those people are not intimidated by death penalty, they are stimulated by it. State executions will surely promote the perpetrator to superstar status on the extremist's circles. In other words it is the best way to attract all guys trying to be martyrs. Better say that you'll find their families and buy them out with the western way of living... that's what is going to scare those guys.

 

[Nekro]

Sentence the guy to death would be a pretty stupid political move. Even if terror has much more motivations than simply whichever extremist cause is used as argument, in this case it is evident that there is an actual religious extremists involved and not only those people are not intimidated by death penalty, they are stimulated by it. State executions will surely promote the perpetrator to superstar status on the extremist's circles. In other words it is the best way to attract all guys trying to be martyrs. Better say that you'll find their families and buy them out with the western way of living... that's what is going to scare those guys.

lol that's not going to scare those guys...... What's going to scare those guys is when their relatives, friends, dogs and cats get deported..... They are in western countries to conquer....... If they do something like this and lots of muslims get removed as a consequence it will show them that doing terrorist attacks is not good for the conquest.....

And ofc the ideal thing to do is to dozer all their mosques and just ban their religion.... all these nutters gather at mosques, the muslim stabbers in Germany too who stabbed the guy wearing the cross...... So let's get this clear, in muslim countries Christianity is practically banned... Christians are running the risk of getting shot, drowned, hanged and beheaded, they can only hope it's not going to happen... And Muslim are coming to christian countries and build mosques with "conquest" name and are murdering Christian people on christian lands..... It's obvious Christianity won't work in muslim countries so just ban Islam in christian countries.. Their mosques, their clothes, their symbols... You came for better standards of living? Great, make a better living but leave your nutter religion where u came from... As simple as that, you can't stop the lunacy other way.....

 

[Federberg]

Starting to see a fairly consistent pattern of employment data disappointing versus market expectations. This is normally a sign that the cycle is turning. Trump and the GOP had better beware. Things could look completely different this time next year, and it wouldn't bode well for the Congressional elections

 

[Federberg]

Another bout of serious gun fatalities in the US. Trump to speak shortly, somehow I doubt he'll talk about solutions. Will this ever end?

 

[Federberg]

Too early to say this is the turn, but that was a huge win for Dems last night. The Alabama race becomes more interesting now. Let's see if the energy carries over. Not suggesting the Dems can win there, but if they over-perform it will reinforce the trend

 

[britbox]

Another bout of serious gun fatalities in the US. Trump to speak shortly, somehow I doubt he'll talk about solutions. Will this ever end?

Sadly it won't.

 

[Federberg]

So should we stop saying Grand Old Party and say Group Of Paedophile supporters?