US Politics Thread

[Fiero425]

No, because it involves his organization. I believe the law is written so that he would have to be personally charged with a felony to be disqualified.

Always a loophole! Trump said he could shoot someone on 5Th Ave., NY & get away w/ it! Seems so! No offense too egregious for Repubs.!

 

[Federberg]

No, because it involves his organization. I believe the law is written so that he would have to be personally charged with a felony to be disqualified.

I don't even think being indicted is disqualifying under American law - correct me if I'm wrong. If the Senate had voted him guilty, he would have been disqualified. They missed their chance. I hope he runs. If he does he will lose. Ever since 2016 his results either direct or by proxy have been progressively worse. No reason to think the trend changes. It'll be good for American democracy. The GOP need to rid themselves of Trump derangement syndrome. The fact that they're still unable to go against him is proof he's not out of their system yet. To me this is what the Labour party had to go thru during Margaret Thatcher's time. Repeated punishment until the stain of militancy was cleaned away

 

[tented]

I don't even think being indicted is disqualifying under American law - correct me if I'm wrong. If the Senate had voted him guilty, he would have been disqualified.

You’re correct! I found this on The Hill:

”But can Trump really be disqualified if convicted? Only in the court of public opinion. Indictment and even conviction of a felony is no ground for disqualification of someone from running for president. Eugene V. Debs ran for president four times in the early 1900s and was a candidate while in jail. So did John Gordon, and a federal court approved his eligibility.

The Constitution in Article II, Section 1, Clause 5 provides the qualifications for president, and that clause does not preclude felons, insurrectionists or document removers.”

They missed their chance. I hope he runs. If he does he will lose. Ever since 2016 his results either direct or by proxy have been progressively worse. No reason to think the trend changes. It'll be good for American democracy. The GOP need to rid themselves of Trump derangement syndrome. The fact that they're still unable to go against him is proof he's not out of their system yet. To me this is what the Labour party had to go thru during Margaret Thatcher's time. Repeated punishment until the stain of militancy was cleaned away

Just the other day I was getting angry at Trump’s comment about suspending the constitution, then thought, “Wait, what am I doing? Keep it up, Donald. Get the nomination, and guarantee the loss. Again.”

 

[Federberg]

Dems will make a huge mistake if they focus on the errors the GOP made in these mid-terms. Dems did well because of Dobbs, and poor candidate quality. There was very little affirmation that can be gleaned from these results. If Trump had not intervened with cray cray candidates I doubt Dems would have had the success they had, and that's even with Dobbs. While most will say - in that scenario - that it would have been due to high inflation and the natural reversion we see in mid-terms. I would argue that the woke nonsense is a political dead weight. If Dems keep trying to impose woke values they too will have a reckoning and it'll be bloody. You have been warned...

 

[tented]

Dems will make a huge mistake if they focus on the errors the GOP made in these mid-terms. Dems did well because of Dobbs, and poor candidate quality. There was very little affirmation that can be gleaned from these results. If Trump had not intervened with cray cray candidates I doubt Dems would have had the success they had, and that's even with Dobbs. While most will say - in that scenario - that it would have been due to high inflation and the natural reversion we see in mid-terms. I would argue that the woke nonsense is a political dead weight. If Dems keep trying to impose woke values they too will have aa reckoning and it'll be bloody. You have been warned...

But historically speaking, the opposition party has done well in midterms. You have to go back to George W. Bush, in the wake of 9/11, to find the most recent example of an incumbent president gaining seats.

If the woke stuff were that much of a deadweight, they would not have gained one Senate seat, and would have lost much more than a handful of seats in the House. Now, I’m not saying I disagree with you, because I also think wokeism is problematic, but it’s clear it didn’t have an affect this time. Dobbs has motivated enough people that Kentucky — a solidly conservative/red state — voted to keep abortion legal. That was huge. Many people, myself included, did not see that coming.

Even Mitch McConnell alluded to poor “candidate quality”, so they know that was a key factor. Dr. Oz and Walker were horrible picks. That Warnock won two elections within a month in Georgia is also significant. Republicans had two chances to install their guy, and couldn’t get enough motivated to vote for Walker. Wokeism didn’t affect this election.

That said, I agree they need to be careful during the run up to the 2024 election. Fox News is going to be showing AOC, Sanders, and other far-left liberals nonstop between now and then. But really, 2024 is going to be all about Trump if he gets the nomination, not wokeism.

 

[Federberg]

But historically speaking, the opposition party has done well in midterms. You have to go back to George W. Bush, in the wake of 9/11, to find the most recent example of an incumbent president gaining seats.

View attachment 7372

If the woke stuff were that much of a deadweight, they would not have gained one Senate seat, and would have lost much more than a handful of seats in the House. Now, I’m not saying I disagree with you, because I also think wokeism is problematic, but it’s clear it didn’t have an affect this time. Dobbs has motivated enough people that Kentucky — a solidly conservative/red state — voted to keep abortion legal. That was huge. Many people, myself included, did not see that coming.

Even Mitch McConnell alluded to poor “candidate quality”, so they know that was a key factor. Dr. Oz and Walker were horrible picks. That Warnock won two elections within a month in Georgia is also significant. Republicans had two chances to install their guy, and couldn’t get enough motivated to vote for Walker. Wokeism didn’t affect this election.

That said, I agree they need to be careful during the run up to the 2024 election. Fox News is going to be showing AOC, Sanders, and other far-left liberals nonstop between now and then. But really, 2024 is going to be all about Trump if he gets the nomination, not wokeism.

I'm not sure you're disagreeing with what I said in any way. I acknowledged that the midterms are a headwind for incumbency - the natural reversion we see in mid-terms

my point is that Dobbs and poor candidate quality were such a colossal mistake by the GOP that it swamped inflation, the Presidential cycle and the culture war stuff the GOP had clearly been working on since the Biden Administration started. Was I not clear? I've re-read what I wrote and it's all there.

I've been watching the GOP set the whole argument up for the last couple of years, perhaps a bit too aggressively for my tastes but. they clearly saw the opening. De Santis has been dining on this for example. I'm just saying that Trump and SCOTUS pretty much sabotaged the plan. I'm not sure that Dems should count on such good fortune in '24. That's all I'm saying

 

[Moxie]

I'm not sure you're disagreeing with what I said in any way. I acknowledged that the midterms are a headwind for incumbency - the natural reversion we see in mid-terms

Is that what you meant? I'm confused. Mid-terms are NOT generally a headwind for incumbency. Historically, incumbents lose some ground in the midterms. This is why these midterms were so surprising, especially given Biden's terrible numbers. The "red wave" didn't happen, for many reasons. But amongst them, because the Republicans put too much faith in Trump and trumpism, and they did think that the culture wars were trending in their direction. They were wrong, to some extent. People were not that willing to elect "incompetent," (though it was close, in some elections, as in GA.) And you may or may not be willing to call this election about the safety of democracy, but people did reject those who held the past presidential election as "stolen."

my point is that Dobbs and poor candidate quality were such a colossal mistake by the GOP that it swamped inflation, the Presidential cycle and the culture war stuff the GOP had clearly been working on since the Biden Administration started. Was I not clear? I've re-read what I wrote and it's all there.

You're right about the collossal mistakes. But @tented is right that "wokeism" didn't come into it. You may be over-emphasizing that, which I think you do.

I've been watching the GOP set the whole argument up for the last couple of years, perhaps a bit too aggressively for my tastes but. they clearly saw the opening. De Santis has been dining on this for example. I'm just saying that Trump and SCOTUS pretty much sabotaged the plan. I'm not sure that Dems should count on such good fortune in '24. That's all I'm saying

I don't think the Democrats are taking anything for granted, at this point. We only know a few things. One is that Trump can win, but he's never really given anyone much of a tailwind. He's a singular cult of personality. The other thing we know is that, however much the party (and Fox News) is trying to distance themselves from him, there is his base. If Trump loses in the primaries, he'll take his base with him, which is bad for the Republicans. The Republican party is going to have some soul-searching to do before 2024. The other thing we know is that, no matter how many thing happen that make us think that Trump is dead, he rises again, like the Phoenix cockroach that he is.

Biden is making noises that he's actually going to run again.

 

[Jelenafan]

. . The other thing we know is that, no matter how many thing happen that make us think that Trump is dead, he rises again, like the Phoenix cockroach that he is..

 

[Federberg]

Is that what you meant? I'm confused.

ugh! Well spotted. I meant a headwind for the incumbent President's party. Sometimes I snip off words when using my phone...

You're right about the collossal mistakes. But @tented is right that "wokeism" didn't come into it. You may be over-emphasizing that, which I think you do.

not sure how much clearer I need to be here. I basically already said that culture war stuff didn't come into it this time. Because of Dobbs, inflation and poor candidates. The point being that Trump and SCOTUS basically sabotaged what the GOP had clearly been working towards. There's no disagreement there

I don't think the Democrats are taking anything for granted, at this point.

That's where I disagree with you. Not only are Dems at many levels of government promoting woke-ism, the GOP are exceptional at constructing a narrative. Events pushed their efforts into the background this time. Don't count on it next time.

As for Trump, he won once, aided by the vagaries of the electoral college. It's been progressively worse since then. I believe the only reason Biden will stand for re-election is because he could beat Trump, literally in his sleep. Next time his victory will be bigger. By the way I wouldn't be shocked if he dumps Kamala. If he brings Newson in, then it's a sure sign that if he wins he might well retire after a year and a bit. Give President Newson a smooth path to destiny

 

[tented]

I believe the only reason Biden will stand for re-election is because he could beat Trump, literally in his sleep. Next time his victory will be bigger. By the way I wouldn't be shocked if he dumps Kamala. If he brings Newson in, then it's a sure sign that if he wins he might well retire after a year and a bit. Give President Newson a smooth path to destiny

I don’t think he should pick Newsom, basically trading top-level Californian politicians. I think he should go with someone either from the Midwest or the South, but I don’t know who. In a perfect world, I would pick Buttigieg — not because he’s gay, but because he’s incredibly smart and from the Midwest. However, because he is gay, it would be difficult, if not impossible, for him to win a general election. The religious right would be all over him.

So, if not him, then who? I’m not sure, but if I were Biden, I’d be thinking about flipping a red state, such as Florida or Texas. Maybe Stacy Abrams to keep the move to Democrats in Georgia?

 

[Federberg]

I don’t think he should pick Newsom, basically trading top-level Californian politicians. I think he should go with someone either from the Midwest or the South, but I don’t know who. In a perfect world, I would pick Buttigieg — not because he’s gay, but because he’s incredibly smart and from the Midwest. However, because he is gay, it would be difficult, if not impossible, for him to win a general election. The religious right would be all over him.

So, if not him, then who? I’m not sure, but if I were Biden, I’d be thinking about flipping a red state, such as Florida or Texas. Maybe Stacy Abrams to keep the move to Democrats in Georgia?

that's a very good point about California. I hadn't considered that. I would say most definitely not Stacy Abrams. The woman didn't win.. twice! You need winners. I would take Tim Ryan over her, every day of the week and Sunday. You're absolutely right, it should be someone who's been successful in a red or purple State. What about the bloke who won the governorship in Kansas? Someone who's connected with normal folk. Stay away from the wokistas!

 

[Federberg]

Britney Griner released. But I'm not hearing anything about the American guy who's been in jail for longer. I don't think his 'crime' was anymore serious. Is it because she's a famous woman? If it is then shame on them

 

[tented]

Britney Griner released. But I'm not hearing anything about the American guy who's been in jail for longer. I don't think his 'crime' was anymore serious. Is it because she's a famous woman? If it is then shame on them

No, just Britney. Apparently they tried to get both, but Russia is claiming Whelan is a spy, accused of espionage, therefore they wouldn’t include him in such a deal. And, yes, this was almost all certainly because she’s famous.

 

[tented]

that's a very good point about California. I hadn't considered that. I would say most definitely not Stacy Abrams. The woman didn't win.. twice! You need winners. I would take Tim Ryan over her, every day of the week and Sunday. You're absolutely right, it should be someone who's been successful in a red or purple State. What about the bloke who won the governorship in Kansas? Someone who's connected with normal folk. Stay away from the wokistas!

Good point about Abrams not winning. Ryan is a great idea. He would appeal to a lot of middle America. If they could win Ohio, Biden would almost certainly be reelected.

 

[Fiero425]

No, just Britney. Apparently they tried to get both, but Russia is claiming Whelan is a spy, accused of espionage, therefore they wouldn’t include him in such a deal. And, yes, this was almost all certainly because she’s famous.

Famous, stupid, & greedy! It's not like she was broke! She's probably the highest paid athlete in the WNBA w/ a Nike endorsement! Gambling by way of playing basketball in Europe by way of Russia just leaves a bad taste in my mouth! She may not have known we were close to all out war with them due to Ukraine invasion, but that's why I'm holding "congrats!" That trade was not worth it IMO! I'm very disappointed and we were "taken" again by Putin!

 

[Kieran]

Famous, stupid, & greedy! It's not like she was broke! She's probably the highest paid athlete in the WNBA w/ a Nike endorsement! Gambling by way of playing basketball in Europe by way of Russia just leaves a bad taste in my mouth! She may not have known we were close to all out war with them due to Ukraine invasion, but that's why I'm holding "congrats!" That trade was not worth it IMO! I'm very disappointed and we were "taken" again by Putin!

It’s incredible really, and must be galling for the officers - American, Thai and Interpol - who tracked and traced and caught so-called The Merchant of Death, Viktor Bout, only to see him exchanged for a brat who never says anything good about her country. Being a “black, queer, woman” seems to be the only proof of her innocence, and as we know, that’s no proof at all. It’s a shameful thing…

 

[Fiero425]

It’s incredible really, and must be galling for the officers - American, Thai and Interpol - who tracked and traced and caught so-called The Merchant of Death, Viktor Bout, only to see him exchanged for a brat who never says anything good about her country. Being a “black, queer, woman” seems to be the only proof of her innocence, and as we know, that’s no proof at all. It’s a shameful thing…

She m/b haunted by the deaths of Ukranians as Russia now have a means to resupply & refortify "arms" their cause needed by this Xchange!

 

[Federberg]

The US official saying that it was a choice of one of the US prisoners or none. Why the fk wasn't it the guy who had been in jail for longer? That's not right in my view. And before anyone gets at me that the woman should be allowed to come home first. That dude was a US marine, he's served his country, why shouldn't he be the one to come home first. He'd been there longer. It seems that gender equality only works if its in favour of women. I'm pretty sure the conditions he's in are worse than for her. Unless you're telling me that there's more authenticity regarding his imprisonment it's not fair.

 

[Federberg]

So Sinema has become an independent. So Manchin retains his power. And the Dems can't make too much noise about primarying her as that could push either her or Manchin to the GOP. What a sh1t show..

 

[Moxie]

The US official saying that it was a choice of one of the US prisoners or none. Why the fk wasn't it the guy who had been in jail for longer? That's not right in my view. And before anyone gets at me that the woman should be allowed to come home first. That dude was a US marine, he's served his country, why shouldn't he be the one to come home first. He'd been there longer. It seems that gender equality only works if its in favour of women. I'm pretty sure the conditions he's in are worse than for her. Unless you're telling me that there's more authenticity regarding his imprisonment it's not fair.

NBC News issues correction after reporting Biden had a 'choice' between Griner or Whelan in prisoner swap

NBC News issued a correction after reporting President Biden could have received Paul Whelan, instead of Brittney Griner, in the controversial trade for Viktor Bout.

www.foxnews.com

Note this is from Fox, calling out NBC. They say it is not correct that they were offered an "either/or" of Griner or Whelan. It was Griner, or nothing. Whelan's charge is espionage. While it may be completely bogus, it's a far more serious charge.