US Politics Thread

[atttomole]

So is Russia meddling a hoax? I agree that countries do spy on each other and the United States is also a culprit. How much of the evidence did yo see? From what I know, some of the evidence is classified. How much of the classified evidence did you see?

 

[mrzz]

So is Russia meddling a hoax? I agree that countries do spy on each other and the United States is also a culprit. How much of the evidence did yo see? From what I know, some of the evidence is classified. How much of the classified evidence did you see?

Naturally I have seen zero evidence. All that I -- and basically everyone else in the world -- am allowed to see is what is made public (and believe me, a lot is out there if you want to look for it, as I said I read the reports which were made public).

But if the evidence is classified -- which makes sense, I agree -- how can the press be so sure? Because they trust their "sources", who leak the conclusions but not the evidence? A biased source feeding a biased journalist? And everyone must buy that? Sorry, does not work for me.

The point is that I get the anti-Trump sentiment. But exactly because that sentiment is so strong, it is hard to believe in what we see. It is kind of obvious that people on one side of the political fence would make a haystack out of a needle (as people on the other side would turn a blind eye to just about everything).

I admit this has long become kind of the kid that cries wolf story. At some point, if something really material shows up (and, again, in no way I rule that out), a lot of people might simply don't buy it.

[EDIT]: Ugh, I can't believe I let my self be drawn into this discussion again. I hate that my posts can be seen in defense of Trump. Can't these people just nail the guy with something really good once and for all? And without declaring war, preferably...

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Naturally I have seen zero evidence. All that I -- and basically everyone else in the world -- am allowed to see is what is made public (and believe me, a lot is out there if you want to look for it, as I said I read the reports which were made public).

But if the evidence is classified -- which makes sense, I agree -- how can the press be so sure? Because they trust their "sources", who leak the conclusions but not the evidence? A biased source feeding a biased journalist? And everyone must buy that? Sorry, does not work for me.

The point is that I get the anti-Trump sentiment. But exactly because that sentiment is so strong, it is hard to believe in what we see. It is kind of obvious that people on one side of the political fence would make a haystack out of a needle (as people on the other side would turn a blind eye to just about everything).

I admit this has long become kind of the kid that cries wolf story. At some point, if something really material shows up (and, again, in no way I rule that out), a lot of people might simply don't buy it.

[EDIT]: Ugh, I can't believe I let my self be drawn into this discussion again. I hate that my posts can be seen in defense of Trump. Can't these people just nail the guy with something really good once and for all? And without declaring war, preferably...

Can't Stormy take care of it? She was even arrested recently for letting a customer touch her. Then after releasing her, the cops said they made a mistake in arresting her.

 

[Federberg]

So is Russia meddling a hoax? I agree that countries do spy on each other and the United States is also a culprit. How much of the evidence did yo see? From what I know, some of the evidence is classified. How much of the classified evidence did you see?

you can actually read the full indictment online for the recent charges against the 12 Russian GRU agents. Most reasonable GOP legislators agree with the US Intelligence community that there is no doubt that the Russian cyber attack happened. They (GOP) refuse to believe in Trump campaign collusion, but are fairly confident about the hacking. You can find it here...

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/nation...12-russian-officers-for-election-interference

Some folks might try to be "balanced" but that is just bullshit at this point mate. As for the collusion angle, just ask yourself this, when Trump is cornered he concedes that the Russians attacked, but you only have to look at his tweets this weekend to see that he keeps trying to gaslight his base (and other gullible souls) that there was no cyber attack and it's just a witch hunt. An accusation by the way he levels against his own Justice Department appointees and his own Intelligence community appointees. You need to ask yourself why he would do this, when his first duty as President of the United States is to defend his country. His actions implicate him

 

[mrzz]

^Thanks for the link. My favorite part was "the defendants then created a Twitter account to interfere with the US elections".

 

[Federberg]

 

[Federberg]

 

[atttomole]

Naturally I have seen zero evidence. All that I -- and basically everyone else in the world -- am allowed to see is what is made public (and believe me, a lot is out there if you want to look for it, as I said I read the reports which were made public).

But if the evidence is classified -- which makes sense, I agree -- how can the press be so sure? Because they trust their "sources", who leak the conclusions but not the evidence? A biased source feeding a biased journalist? And everyone must buy that? Sorry, does not work for me.

The point is that I get the anti-Trump sentiment. But exactly because that sentiment is so strong, it is hard to believe in what we see. It is kind of obvious that people on one side of the political fence would make a haystack out of a needle (as people on the other side would turn a blind eye to just about everything).

I admit this has long become kind of the kid that cries wolf story. At some point, if something really material shows up (and, again, in no way I rule that out), a lot of people might simply don't buy it.

[EDIT]: Ugh, I can't believe I let my self be drawn into this discussion again. I hate that my posts can be seen in defense of Trump. Can't these people just nail the guy with something really good once and for all? And without declaring war, preferably...

The evidence for Russian meddling did not come from biased sources as I remember. All the intelligence organisations, including the CIA and FBI were unanimous in concluding that there was Russian meddling. They have always done that job, and I do not see why they have to bring up the evidence because they have a political agenda. Senior officials from the FBI and CIA have seen the evidence and have been talking about it for over a year to the media. As we both know, they can not divulge the key evidence because it is classified.

It is also known that Trump and Clinton were informed about Russian meddling once they were nominated presidential candidates by their respective parties. They were getting security briefings during the presidential electron campaigns. It is shocking now that Trump is lying, saying that he was not informed about Russian meddling, yet he was getting that information before the elections. He lies so routinely that people have become numb to it. As the president, now he gets full briefings and chooses to disregard them. A clear dereliction of duty. The anti-Trump sentiments are because of his irresponsible behavior. It is not like people decided to suddenly dislike him. Frankly, to me he looks dumb. This is the guy who said that reports of his relationships with different women were fake news. Now tapes are out, of him talking to Michael Cohen about paying money to Karen McDougal. It is thought that there could be more incriminating tapes.

Unfortunately, the US democratic system has been weakened by partisan politics and this guy will continue with his juvenile behavior, instead of leading the country.

 

[Federberg]

The evidence for Russian meddling did not come from biased sources as I remember. All the intelligence organisations, including the CIA and FBI were unanimous in concluding that there was Russian meddling. They have always done that job, and I do not see why they have to bring up the evidence because they have a political agenda. Senior officials from the FBI and CIA have seen the evidence and have been talking about it for over a year to the media. As we both know, they can not divulge the key evidence because it is classified.

It is also known that Trump and Clinton were informed about Russian meddling once they were nominated presidential candidates by their respective parties. They were getting security briefings during the presidential electron campaigns. It is shocking now that Trump is lying that he was not informed about Russian meddling, yet he was getting that information before the elections. He lies so routinely that people have become numb to it. As the president, now he gets full briefings and chooses to disregard them. A clear dereliction of duty. The ant-Trump sentiments are because of his irresponsible behavior. It is not like people decided to suddenly dislike him. Frankly, to me he looks dumb. This is the guy who said that reports of his relationships with different women were fake news. Now tapes are out of him talking to Michael Cohen about paying money to Karen McDougal. It is thought that there could be more incriminating tapes.

Unfortunately, the US democratic system has been weakened by partisan politics and this guy will continue with his juvenile behavior, instead of leading the country.

well said brother. And it's worth adding that even if he disbelieved the IC under the Obama Administration, his own officials are not only saying the same thing, they have continued to provide more and more evidence. It's comical that seemingly intelligent people choose to deny the evidence presented to them

 

[mrzz]

The evidence for Russian meddling did not come from biased sources as I remember. All the intelligence organisations, including the CIA and FBI were unanimous in concluding that there was Russian meddling. They have always done that job, and I do not see why they have to bring up the evidence because they have a political agenda. Senior officials from the FBI and CIA have seen the evidence and have been talking about it for over a year to the media. As we both know, they can not divulge the key evidence because it is classified.

It is also known that Trump and Clinton were informed about Russian meddling once they were nominated presidential candidates by their respective parties. They were getting security briefings during the presidential electron campaigns. It is shocking now that Trump is lying that he was not informed about Russian meddling, yet he was getting that information before the elections. He lies so routinely that people have become numb to it. As the president, now he gets full briefings and chooses to disregard them. A clear dereliction of duty. The ant-Trump sentiments are because of his irresponsible behavior. It is not like people decided to suddenly dislike him. Frankly, to me he looks dumb. This is the guy who said that reports of his relationships with different women were fake news. Now tapes are out of him talking to Michael Cohen about paying money to Karen McDougal. It is thought that there could be more incriminating tapes.

Unfortunately, the US democratic system has been weakened by partisan politics and this guy will continue with his juvenile behavior, instead of leading the country.

What I am trying to point out is that I highly doubt that any of the senior officers talking to the press is unbiased. That is a huge part of the point: I see no reason to believe that people are being honest and truthful. I find it much more credible that people will say whatever the power structures behind them want them to say. There will be exceptions to this rule? Maybe a few, probably unheard...

And, again, this whole conversation about "Russian meddling" is based on a complete vague concept. What the hell is "Russian meddling"? According to the above official report, it includes "creating a twitter account to meddle with the US elections".

That Trump is dumb I surely agree. Actually, I don't, because I think it is worst than that. But what I ask myself is how the hell this guy is where he is? One of the answers is that his opposition (at least large part of it) must be even dumber. And this focus on the Russian meddling is evidence of that.

Look, is a simple Occam's razor. What is uncontroversial is that the Democratic party got his digital defenses wrong and important data was leaked. Now, once this data is out there in the hands of hackers, what would you expect to happen? It is obvious that this information would fall, one way or another, in the hands of the republicans. Now one election is lost on a tiny margin, most likely because of this set of data. Now what is more probable, a big international conspiracy (which leaves amateur traces behind it), or that the guys who got it all wrong would explain their mistakes by making up this very conspiracy (using what? exactly the biggest "bad guy" available).

 

[Federberg]

Lol! So now Trump is saying he's concerned that Russia might meddle in the mid-term elections in favour of the Dems.



You simply can't make this stuff up. If that was all it would be bad enough. But the WH has just published its official record of the Helsinki press conference. Interestingly they have redacted the Reuters journalist's question to Putin about whether he favoured Trump and took actions to support him. For those who watched that press conference, you'll recall that Putin instantly answered yes. Well...now the WH redaction takes out a good portion of the journalists question to create a different spin. So when you tie that in to Trump's "fear" that Russia will meddle in favour of the Dems... I'm sure I don't need to spell it out

 

[Federberg]

 

[britbox]

@Federberg Drop the anti-Trump hysterics and break this down for me. Is this Trump-speak (i.e. gross exaggeration), factual or somewhere in between? Interested in your financial professional opinion with political affiliations put to one side.

 

[Federberg]

^Lol! I might loathe the guy but only in your fantasies have I been hysterical. The wonderful thing about Trump is that those who dislike him don't have to exaggerate at all.

As to your question, well what he said is factual in the sense that those growth numbers are real. But that is front loaded growth. All the tariff fears have forced businesses to accelerate their purchases of at risk raw materials (those that could be tariffed). As a consequence there's a very very high probability that the next quarter will suffer as a consequence. It will almost certainly be below trend. But here's the thing, the US economic cycle is very late now. You have to worry that anything could tip it into recession. I'm not saying that it will go that way but Trump is really doing himself no favours. The tax cut was some of the dumbest shit I've ever seen in an economy that was already motoring. The fiscal situation is an abomination. Trump can't help himself, he butts in all the time. Attacks individual businesses, making the corporate environment uncertain where it doesn't need to be. This is the sort of shite that someone like Chavez was doing, you just don't expect it in the largest, most advanced economy in the world. And worst of all, the stock market definitely looks like it's topping. All the indicators are telling us the smart money is exiting the market right now as well

This isn't a political view mate. This is how I see the market at the moment. I'm actually putting my money where my mouth is. I'm in the process of liquidating the equity positions in all of my pensions. I would do it a lot more quickly but I really don't know where to put the cash. You would think I would be ok with cash funds, but I can still remember cash funds were first to blow up in 2007/8.

 

[Federberg]

^I should also add, lest anyone believes those were the best growth numbers of all times, that while they were decent, they were in no way exceptional at all. I never believe economic data should be attributed to administration anyway.

Furthermore, Trump's economic thinking is early 20th century, and not what's needed in the 21st century. Let me be more direct. Tariffs on manufacturing goods in a service sector economy are beyond stupid. Look at steel for example, the way he goes on you would think that the US produces less steel now than it did 20 years ago, but that's not true. The problem is that it take a fraction of the work force to achieve the same production. Tariffs won't change that

The one area where I was supportive was Chinese intellectual property theft, but dumb fuck that he is, he backs away from punishing ZTE which is an actual national security threat Mate I don't think he could do more harm if he is an agent of the Russians. I swear to god

 

[britbox]

^Lol! I might loathe the guy but only in your fantasies have I been hysterical. The wonderful thing about Trump is that those who dislike him don't have to exaggerate at all.

As to your question, well what he said is factual in the sense that those growth numbers are real. But that is front loaded growth. All the tariff fears have forced businesses to accelerate their purchases of at risk raw materials (those that could be tariffed). As a consequence there's a very very high probability that the next quarter will suffer as a consequence. It will almost certainly be below trend. But here's the thing, the US economic cycle is very late now. You have to worry that anything could tip it into recession. I'm not saying that it will go that way but Trump is really doing himself no favours. The tax cut was some of the dumbest shit I've ever seen in an economy that was already motoring. The fiscal situation is an abomination. Trump can't help himself, he butts in all the time. Attacks individual businesses, making the corporate environment uncertain where it doesn't need to be. This is the sort of shite that someone like Chavez was doing, you just don't expect it in the largest, most advanced economy in the world. And worst of all, the stock market definitely looks like it's topping. All the indicators are telling us the smart money is exiting the market right now as well

This isn't a political view mate. This is how I see the market at the moment. I'm actually putting my money where my mouth is. I'm in the process of liquidating the equity positions in all of my pensions. I would do it a lot more quickly but I really don't know where to put the cash. You would think I would be ok with cash funds, but I can still remember cash funds were first to blow up in 2007/8.

Thanks man. Appreciate the breakdown.

 

[Federberg]

Sometimes it's good to take a step back and look at the evolution of the Trump Administration response to the Russia question over time....

First... No contacts with Russia

Then.... No collusion with Russia

And now... Collusion is not a crime

But hey... it's just a witch hunt

 

[Federberg]

Lol! I know I'm stating the obvious but Trump is a fucking moron. So folks who go grocery shopping need ID? Clearly he's never done it in his pampered life

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Lol! I know I'm stating the obvious but Trump is a fucking moron. So folks who go grocery shopping need ID? Clearly he's never done it in his pampered life

......... or may be, the only thing he buys in grocery stores is heavy water.

 

[atttomole]

There are reports that the people around Donald J. Trump are working hard to distract him because his mood swings have become more frequent, as the Meuller investigation intensifies. I feel sorry for the people who have to talk to this guy on a daily basis.
They have to try to explain the nonsense that he spouts on Twitter because he contradicts government policy. In addition they have to calm him down and distract him, in case he does something very stupid. And he is the president who is supposed to lead them.