US Open 2023 [Men] - Grand Slam

[Jelenafan]

…
As for your 2nd point, I disagree because while Sinner has been in the tour now for 3 to 4 years, he still only turned 22 years old. As far I know 22 years old is still a young age. Also, we have to look at these young players in a different light compared to the Big Four and Alcaraz. Those 5 players are/were great players for a reason.

We have to see these young players for their career progress than flash in the pan moments. Because we will have young players who have an amazing tournament then struggle the rest of the year. Ben Shelton is a prime example of this.

One more thing: While Sinner has not reached any Slam Final yet, he has improved his game and has done well outside of Slams. Now, in 2024, he definitely needs to reach a Slam Final, no more excuses.

??
I actually don’t think we disagree, i said “unfortunately by age 23 if you dont break through after 4 or 5 years on the tour to at least reach a Slam final the odds are it’s not going to happen”

Sinner birthdate is August and he is 22: That gives him until July 2025 at the latest to reach a slam final. He will still be 23.

 

[El Dude]

Literally every all-time great player of the Open Era was already great by the time they were 22 -- or at least very close to it. Even Federer, who was a relatively late-bloomer, had just won his first Slam at Wimbledon and "arrived" as a truly elite player.

This doesn't mean that Sinner can't get better, just that it is rather unlikely that he'll get a ton better. As of now, I see his upside being more in the Medvedev-Zverev range - as a "tier 1.5" player...better than garden variety second tier players (e.g. Tsonga, Berdych) but never really the best player on tour (and yes, I realize that Daniil reached #1, but I don't think he was ever considered the best player on tour).

Or let's put it in Elo terms. His peak Elo is 2176, which is just outside the top 100. Here are players with similar peak Elos:

But more importantly, how much better can a 22-year old expect to become? That, I think, requires further research, but I'm guessing it is rare for 22-year olds to jump more than about 100-150 Elo points.

 

[tented]

According to my weather app, it’s 92F (33.3C) in Queens, New York, with 50% humidity. Inside Arthur Ashe Stadium, it must be sweltering. Novak already looks a bit flush and sweaty. Fritz, too.

 

[don_fabio]

According to my weather app, it’s 92F (33.3C) in Queens, New York, with 50% humidity. Inside Arthur Ashe Stadium, it must be sweltering. Novak already looks a bit flush and sweaty. Fritz, too.

Yes, it does look hot and humid. I think Novak would be even more affected if there was a direct sunshine into the court and to his head, it makes a real feel like hell. Then you really overcook. I played tennis just 2 weeks ago during the heatwave and man, those sun rays, when it hits yo head energy is draining so fast.

 

[tented]

Fritz is getting rolled.

 

[tented]

Yes, it does look hot and humid. I think Novak would be even more affected if there was a direct sunshine into the court and to his head, it makes a real feel like hell. Then you really overcook. I played tennis just 2 weeks ago during the heatwave and man, those sun rays, when it hits yo head energy is draining so fast.

Yeah, it’s good they partially closed the roof, or it would now be too difficult to play.

 

[tented]

Novak gets the 1st set 6-1 in about 42 minutes. Fritz looks like he doesn’t know where he is.

 

[the AntiPusher]

Fritz is getting rolled.

If this is the Best that America offers we are gonna go another two or three years before there's something close to a men's champion

 

[rafanoy1992]

Literally every all-time great player of the Open Era was already great by the time they were 22 -- or at least very close to it. Even Federer, who was a relatively late-bloomer, had just won his first Slam at Wimbledon and "arrived" as a truly elite player.

This doesn't mean that Sinner can't get better, just that it is rather unlikely that he'll get a ton better. As of now, I see his upside being more in the Medvedev-Zverev range - as a "tier 1.5" player...better than garden variety second tier players (e.g. Tsonga, Berdych) but never really the best player on tour (and yes, I realize that Daniil reached #1, but I don't think he was ever considered the best player on tour).

Or let's put it in Elo terms. His peak Elo is 2176, which is just outside the top 100. Here are players with similar peak Elos:

View attachment 8764
But more importantly, how much better can a 22-year old expect to become? That, I think, requires further research, but I'm guessing it is rare for 22-year olds to jump more than about 100-150 Elo points.

And I always said before, if Sinner is able to win let's say 2-3 slams, win 7-10 masters in his career, that is considered a GREAT success.

 

[Moxie]

Yeah, it’s good they partially closed the roof, or it would now be too difficult to play.

IMO, it's a trade off. They get more shade (as does the crowd,) but it becomes more airless in there, as it cuts the breeze even more than the roof already does even when fully retracted. It's hotter in there, anyway, than before they put the roof on. And, yes, it's pretty hot and heavy here today.

 

[Fiero425]

Fritz is getting rolled.

Was there any doubt? Taylor has to play flawless tennis w/ a lot big 1st serves! He can't even keep the ball in play against Novak in rallies now!

 

[the AntiPusher]

Novak gets the 1st set 6-1 in about 42 minutes. Fritz looks like he doesn’t know where he is.

Looks like Taylor just was walking by the practice courts and Novak invited him to hits some balls..how do we go from last night battle the mid 1970s 15 rounds of the heavyweights to a First round TKO between a welterweight vs a grown man

 

[tented]

If this is the Best that America offers we are gonna go another two or three years before there's something close to a men's champion

At least. With Novak still around, and Charly ascending, US men aren’t going to win.

Edit: which American would have beaten Sinner last night? Any?

 

[kskate2]

Looks like Taylor just was walking by the practice courts and Novak invited him to hits some balls..how do we go from last night battle the mid 1970s 15 rounds of the heavyweights to First round TKO.

I know I've already mentioned before how dense Tay is. Djoke is nowhere near his best and is slumping over alot. Can Taylor even keep the ball in the court and force Djoke to move? So far he keeps hitting the ball right back to the ole man

 

[kskate2]

At least. With Novak still around, and Charly ascending, US men aren’t going to win.

Edit: which American would have beaten Sinner last night? Any?

No American man is consistent off the ground to rally w/ Red. Maybe Cressy's S/V game would have rattled Jannik last night.

 

[Jelenafan]

And I always said before, if Sinner is able to win let's say 2-3 slams, win 7-10 masters in his career, that is considered a GREAT success.

That would be the Jim Courier/Patrick Rafter/Gustavo Khuerten level, no ? Though winning 7-10 Masters used to be almost tougher, but with these 12 day Masters schedules things may change.

However IMO there isn't until now strong enough indicators Sinner will reach even that level, he's on an overall upward trajectory but its that last quantum leap to Slam glory that flummoxes so many.

 

[Fiero425]

At least. With Novak still around, and Charly ascending, US men aren’t going to win.

Edit: which American would have beaten Sinner last night? Any?

There's something about American players; good, solid play, but no real weapon outside m/b a big serve! That won't cut it internationally!

 

[the AntiPusher]

I know I've already mentioned before how dense Tay is. Djoke is nowhere near his best and is slumping over alot. Can Taylor even keep the ball in the court and force Djoke to move? So far he keeps hitting the ball right back to the ole man

For my money Tommy Paul is the top playing American...ask Carlitos

 

[tented]

There's something about American players; good, solid play, but no real weapon outside m/b a big serve! That won't cut it internationally!

Not to mention being essentially useless on clay.

 

[the AntiPusher]

There's something about American players; good, solid play, but no real weapon outside m/b a big serve! That won't cut it internationally!

PREACH