UK Politics Thread

[britbox]

I don't think the Tories can put forward a vote of no confidence again, if you mean within the Tory party. Of course they can do one in the House of Parliament, but that would force a general election. I'm not sure they want that. I think the hardliners shot their load by going for the vote of no confidence too early. Now they have to wait for 12 months. Their hands are tied now

They can't go for a vote of no-confidence within their own party within 12 months but I'm thinking more along the lines of a Parliamentary vote. May will receive a huge backlash if she teams up with Corbyn... which a big IF anyway - Corbyn is just going through the motions I think - he won't want his hands anywhere near the rudder if he has any sense...

Probably, won't happen... there are too many turkeys voting for Christmas in a no-confidence motion. A general election in the short term future would probably return the most unpredictable set of results in history.

Still plenty of drama to come.

 

[Federberg]

They can't go for a vote of no-confidence within their own party within 12 months but I'm thinking more along the lines of a Parliamentary vote. May will receive a huge backlash if she teams up with Corbyn... which a big IF anyway - Corbyn is just going through the motions I think - he won't want his hands anywhere near the rudder if he has any sense...

Probably, won't happen... there are too many turkeys voting for Christmas in a no-confidence motion. A general election in the short term future would probably return the most unpredictable set of results in history.

Still plenty of drama to come.

yes agreed, it has to be a Parliamentary vote. And I agree Corbyn will not help her. I just can't see the Tories going for a no confidence vote though. I think it's far more likely that more MPs will withdraw from the whip and there will be more ministerial resignations. I think the whole thing is becoming untenable. Theresa May has been an unmitigated disaster. She continues to think that being stubborn is the same as being tough. It really isn't. Say what you want about Maggie, but she would have adjusted here stance to try to win more MPs to her cause. May's strategy all along was to try to scare MPs into going with her plan, but now that MPs have voted to avoid a 'no deal' her strategy is in tatters. It seems that either a long extension (which will probably have to be purchased with a promise of a 2nd referendum) or a revocation of Article 50 will happen. Brexiteers must be spitting mad. This is further proof that Boris is incompetent. If he had been smart he would have tried to prevent that party vote of no confidence until he was absolutely certain of the numbers

 

[britbox]

yes agreed, it has to be a Parliamentary vote. And I agree Corbyn will not help her. I just can't see the Tories going for a no confidence vote though. I think it's far more likely that more MPs will withdraw from the whip and there will be more ministerial resignations. I think the whole thing is becoming untenable. Theresa May has been an unmitigated disaster. She continues to think that being stubborn is the same as being tough. It really isn't. Say what you want about Maggie, but she would have adjusted here stance to try to win more MPs to her cause. May's strategy all along was to try to scare MPs into going with her plan, but now that MPs have voted to avoid a 'no deal' her strategy is in tatters. It seems that either a long extension (which will probably have to be purchased with a promise of a 2nd referendum) or a revocation of Article 50 will happen. Brexiteers must be spitting mad. This is further proof that Boris is incompetent. If he had been smart he would have tried to prevent that party vote of no confidence until he was absolutely certain of the numbers

Yeah, May has been atrocious. She should have gone with the Canada++++ option Tusk was offering last year... all the Brexiteers were happy with it as basis.

No blame on the EU... this is all on Theresa May.

 

[Horsa]

The UK Parliament has now ruled against a no-deal Brexit. However, it's really out of their hands. The EU will decide on the next extension. If they don't give an extension then it's either a WTO Brexit or Parliament will need to revoke Article 50. I suspect the latter would happen in that scenario.

Short Extension... probably only possible if May and Corbyn cobble something together. I find this pretty unlikely. Corbyn doesn't want to be directly tainted and associated with this fiasco. The majority of the Conservative Party don't want to be associated with doing a deal with Corbyn. Still, stranger things have happened in the debacle. IF May cobbles something together with Corbyn, then we're venturing into the unknown... there are so many variables.... could mean a vote of no-confidence brought by her own party, general election... who know...

Long Extension... EU has already said there will be political strings attached. I'm guessing that would be a second referendum... which depending on how the question is framed could be the biggest democratic stitch-up in political history.

Third Option: Revoke Article 50 and Remain.

This whole thing is making Game of Thrones look like a Liberal Democrat Luncheon.

There is no real democracy in Britain. We voted out meaning out altogether.

I think it's scary that Theresa May could get her head together with Jeremy Corbyn.

Considering the circumstances & how our government has handled things I think we'd be better off in than out. They've messed things up altogether.

 

[britbox]

There is no real democracy in Britain. We voted out meaning out altogether.

I think it's scary that Theresa May could get her head together with Jeremy Corbyn.

Considering the circumstances & how our government has handled things I think we'd be better off in than out. They've messed things up altogether.

I think staying in now carries its own set of risks...

a) Revoking Article 50... Initially, it would probably be on a premise of "buying time to get things in place for an orderly Brexit". As discussed, this will carry a political penalty like a second referendum.

b) Second Referendum... This would cause chaos, the level of which would depend on how the Questions were framed. I don't think this is a cut and dried Remain win by the way, although they would probably be favourite.

So let's assume Remain won for a moment. What if the turnout was lower? What if there was a boycott of the vote? There would be a lot of questions about a third referendum... the EU would be bedevilled by Brexit for the foreseeable future. Trust in the UK political system would be broken for a couple of generations... and the mother of all parliaments would be seen as not implementing a democratic vote. The damage would be far greater than many could imagine.

On that note, the EU would also have the mandate to do pretty much whatever it liked. The UK returning to the fold like a puppy with its tail between its legs wouldn't enjoy anything like the influence previously... which wasn't as great as people presume. No more opt-outs, no more rebates, no more special terms... seriously diminished influence. It would be firmly on a path to full and ongoing political integration.

I think the best alternative is to leave on a WTO Brexit. Sure, short term turbulence and pain... and some economic costs... but not the Armageddon some people have talked of.

 

[Federberg]

I think staying in now carries its own set of risks...

a) Revoking Article 50... Initially, it would probably be on a premise of "buying time to get things in place for an orderly Brexit". As discussed, this will carry a political penalty like a second referendum.

b) Second Referendum... This would cause chaos, the level of which would depend on how the Questions were framed. I don't this is a cut and dried Remain win by the way, although they would probably be favourite.

So let's assume Remain won for a moment. What if the turnout was lower? What if there was a boycott of the vote? There would be a lot of questions about a third referendum... the EU would be bedevilled by Brexit for the foreseeable future. Trust in the UK political system would be broken for a couple of generations... and the mother of all parliaments would be seen as not implementing a democratic vote. The damage would be far greater than many could imagine.

On that note, the EU would also have the mandate to do pretty much whatever it liked. The UK returning to the fold like a puppy with its tail between its legs wouldn't enjoy anything like the influence previously... which wasn't as great as people presume. No more opt-outs, no more rebates, no more special terms... seriously diminished influence. It would be firmly on a path to full and ongoing political integration.

I think the best alternative is to leave on a WTO Brexit. Sure, short term turbulence and pain... and some economic costs... but not the Armageddon some people have talked of.

Actually I suspect the complete opposite would happen. The EU is not interested in rubbing it in the UK's face if they revoke Article 50. They would do everything possible to win them over. This represents the best way to damp down any other countries that are flirting with leaving.

I do agree that the devil would be in the detail of a new referendum. And I don't think it's a slam dunk for Remain, although like you I suspect the outcome would be different this time. But... let's be clear... trust in the democratic system in the UK is already smashed. The government has done absolutely nothing... nothing! But talk about Brexit. This is the worst government in living memory.

 

[Horsa]

I think staying in now carries its own set of risks...

a) Revoking Article 50... Initially, it would probably be on a premise of "buying time to get things in place for an orderly Brexit". As discussed, this will carry a political penalty like a second referendum.

b) Second Referendum... This would cause chaos, the level of which would depend on how the Questions were framed. I don't this is a cut and dried Remain win by the way, although they would probably be favourite.

So let's assume Remain won for a moment. What if the turnout was lower? What if there was a boycott of the vote? There would be a lot of questions about a third referendum... the EU would be bedevilled by Brexit for the foreseeable future. Trust in the UK political system would be broken for a couple of generations... and the mother of all parliaments would be seen as not implementing a democratic vote. The damage would be far greater than many could imagine.

On that note, the EU would also have the mandate to do pretty much whatever it liked. The UK returning to the fold like a puppy with its tail between its legs wouldn't enjoy anything like the influence previously... which wasn't as great as people presume. No more opt-outs, no more rebates, no more special terms... seriously diminished influence. It would be firmly on a path to full and ongoing political integration.

I think the best alternative is to leave on a WTO Brexit. Sure, short term turbulence and pain... and some economic costs... but not the Armageddon some people have talked of.

I agree. I for 1 will never vote again.

If we revoke article 50 we won't be taken seriously again because the E.U. will think that we're not reliable, we change our minds too quickly & we don't know what we really want. However, the fact we're not going to be fully independent like we once were & are still tied to other countries & do what they say as well as pay them for the privilege makes me think that remaining would be the best option as we know what is going to happen so there is more certainty as people know where they stand & we can get back to normal sooner. The people thought out meant out & that's what they wanted.

People feel betrayed already because they don't think their votes were acted on. If a 2nd referendum was carried out remain would probably win because people who voted to leave would think it was a waste of time as they'd already voted the 1st time & their votes weren't taken into account so they'd probably stay at home instead.

We knew that things were going to be worse in the short-term anyway but this government has made it so that we'd have been better off staying in & that we'll be worse off altogether.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

The UK Parliament has now ruled against a no-deal Brexit.

They can vote against sun rise tomorrow also.

 

[Federberg]

 

[britbox]

European elections should be fun...

 

[GameSetAndMath]

So, the deadline got moved to Oct now. I don't understand why they keep giving extension. Why can't they simply ask GB to get lost?
What is in it for the EU?

 

[britbox]

Corbyn and Cable boycotting the banquet for Trump's UK state visit is frankly pathetic.
Do either understand the concept of statesmanship? FFS, Corbyn would probably be in the kitchen cooking the food himself if the IRA, Hamas or Hezbollah rolled into town.
The visit is coinciding with the commemoration of the D-Day Landings.

 

[britbox]

Only just clicked. I used to play Rugby on the same team as the Brexit secretary Stephen Barclay.

 

[Federberg]

Corbyn and Cable boycotting the banquet for Trump's UK state visit is frankly pathetic.
Do either understand the concept of statesmanship? FFS, Corbyn would probably be in the kitchen cooking the food himself if the IRA, Hamas or Hezbollah rolled into town.
The visit is coinciding with the commemoration of the D-Day Landings.

 

[JesuslookslikeBorg]

So, the deadline got moved to Oct now. I don't understand why they keep giving extension. Why can't they simply ask GB to get lost?
What is in it for the EU?

uk is worlds 5th largest economy..so eu would prefer to have that financial blob inside the eu fiscal tent..not outside.

also with uk in the eu as a block is world no1, a bit ahead of usa (?), and with china/india economy growing fast the eu see adv of having large a fiscal blob as they can. which is a variation of the same theme lol.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

uk is worlds 5th largest economy..so eu would prefer to have that financial blob inside the eu fiscal tent..not outside.

also with uk in the eu as a block is world no1, a bit ahead of usa (?), and with china/india economy growing fast the eu see adv of having large a fiscal blob as they can. which is a variation pf the same theme lol.

I understand that EU would want to have UK in it. That is easy to understand. But, I believe UK wants to exit and only the terms are being debated. In that case, why is EU being so courteous to UK.

I don't understand all the nuances involved in Brexit, as a person following it (on a part time basis) and from across the pond.

Is the EU hoping that UK would forget about Brexit and rejoin them? Is that why they are being courteous to them?

 

[JesuslookslikeBorg]

I understand that EU would want to have UK in it. That is easy to understand. But, I believe UK wants to exit and only the terms are being debated. In that case, why is EU being so courteous to UK.

I don't understand all the nuances involved in Brexit, as a person following it (on a part time basis) and from across the pond.

Is the EU hoping that UK would forget about Brexit and rejoin them? Is that why they are being courteous to them?

eu deffo want uk to stay, and are hoping all the mess over here in uk will mean a 2nd referendum and a vote to stay in eu..

may shagged things up so badly that 3years have been wasted on unrealistic deal chasing by her and the conservatives,

the likely outcome could be a new ref with the options to ...a) accept deal to leave eu, b)stay in eu, the numbers are literally not there to pass a no deal/ hard brexit in the house of commons..but that could change if the house of commons decided on a new general election.

thus a general election with the in/out pro/anti eu being the main topic of the vote..could shake up the numbers in house of commons to pass a no deal /hard brexit,...or not. lol.

it is a big fat political turd, stinking out the whole of the uk.

 

[Federberg]

Boris's ability to self sabotage is almost beyond belief

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Boris's ability to self sabotage is almost beyond belief

What are you talking about? He is your PM now.

 

[britbox]

It's going to be a very interesting three months ahead. If Boris doesn't deliver Brexit in some format then he's toast. I'm actually wondering if he might risk a general election if he can't push it through with the current parliament.