UK Politics Thread

[Federberg]

I think that this Labour party split is quite momentous. For years I've felt that no party truly reflects my views and wants. I'm a natural Tory supporter, never voted for Labour and there's simply no way that I would ever give Corbyn a look. I have a funny feeling that what this split portends is destruction for the Tory party as it's currently constituted. For too long the coalition of Tory MP's have included xenophobes and fiscal conservatives similar in nature to what we see in the US in some regards, but as politics has evolved over the last few decades the real fissure within the Tory party has been on Europe. What this Labour split seems to portend is the possibility of a separation in both major parties on the EU issue. If that happens, and I'm not suggesting that some Tories might join these Labour centrists, is a similar kind of evolution in the Tory party. If that happens I think the rump of the Tory party won't be much better than a UKIP type party. I do hope that there's an electable party that espouses libertarian principles. For now this has to be immediately bad for Labour and Corbynistas in general, but longer term a more centrist Labour party is likely to rise from the ashes. I see more hope for them than what could possibly happen to a Conservative party. That's if the one thing that has made Conservatives the most successful party in the West doesn't still hold true... their singular dedication to unity and the pursuit of power. It's just hard to see how that continues to hold when the fundamental differences are now so profound

 

[britbox]

It doesn't surprise me. The Parliamentary Labour Party never wanted Corbyn. They've tried to oust him before... and that was before Brexit.

I think the seven made a catastrophic mistake and all will be out on the ear at the next election. They don't have a base or the funding. None of the unions will back them.

They'd have been better off doing what they've preached about Brexit - stay and try and get things changed within. They might be joined by a handful of Tories. Soubry and some of the others that the local constituencies are trying to deselect might jump ship.

The only way I can see them having an impact is if somewhere along the lines of 50+ join them from both Tory and Labour. I'm not ruling that out actually as these things are generally planned and executed to achieve maximum effect... maybe that is part of the plan.

Corbyn and the Labour Party could get May's deal over the line easily enough. Corbyn wants a permanent customs union (well, I doubt he wants one personally, but rather throwing a bone to his "Remain" parliamentary party). May's withdrawal deal includes a customs union.

I listened to an interview with Andy Burnham (Manchester Mayor), a Labour guy. I've always liked him actually... and he was talking about compromises being made in the national interest and the ERG need to be addressed.

The interviewer asked about the customs union, which he was favour of and then followed it up by asking if Corbyn should vote through May's deal on that premise. "Oh, no... he shouldn't do that..."

... Seems like everyone is looking for compromise unless they have to do any compromising themselves. There lies the problem.

 

[Federberg]

My sense, listening to them, is that there was genuine conviction in what they've done, so I don't think "mistake" applies. For that to be the case then it would have to be a purely political calculation. But I do take your point. This is the critical bit now, who joins? If one or two join in the next week or so, then it could cascade. This is a critical time. I agree that we'll need to see 50 and over for it to become an existential thing for the current political paradigm. That's why I said it could be something big. Frankly I hope it is. Politics in the UK is a clusterfuck right now

 

[Federberg]

sounds like another MP is leaving Labour taking the number to 8, and apparently there are some Tory MPs thinking about doing the same. It says something when John Major is publicly warning Tories not to do the same. I really hope it happens. Something needs to change as none of these parties seem to give a shit what we the people think

 

[Horsa]

sounds like another MP is leaving Labour taking the number to 8, and apparently there are some Tory MPs thinking about doing the same. It says something when John Major is publicly warning Tories not to do the same. I really hope it happens. Something needs to change as none of these parties seem to give a shit what we the people think

I couldn't agree more. Something needs to be done desperately.

 

[Federberg]

4 Tories join the group taking the number up to 12. Still only a snowball but it’s threatening to roll down a hill

 

[Federberg]

CORRECTION: 3 Tories and one Labour MP resigned to take the number up to 11.

Don't know the exact numbers but May's coalition is down to the whisker now, if not no longer in force. Any more Tories and this becomes a full blown political crisis that would surely tip things over into a general election

 

[britbox]

Would a general election solve anything? There seems to be if not more disenchantment with the policies of the Labour front bench that it wouldn't surprise me if the Tories increased their majority... and I can't see many of those independents being re-elected.

 

[Federberg]

I'm not sure a general election helps anything to be honest. But that could be the consequence. It's important to understand what is happening here right now, militants are entering the ranks of Labour, but UKIP and far right types are entering the ranks of the Conservatives. Both parties are moving from the centre and presenting voters with a difficult problem. If things keep going the way they are most people will want to flee both parties. This is why these defections could be such a powerful thing. If it forces one or the other party to reconsider and try to capture the middle they will win in the longer term. Let's see what happens

 

[Federberg]

snowball starting to roll...

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...-defect-new-Independent-Group-soon-TODAY.html

 

[britbox]

Once the Brexit stuff is over with, I think the Conservatives are more likely to capture the middle ground than Labour.

The Independent Group members will get annihilated at the next election. In fact, once a withdrawal deal is done on Brexit, then they're a busted flush. It's a one trick pony group - I don't even think you should label them as "centre", they are just ardent Remainers, simple as. I've heard rumours Blair might be a puppet master with this vehicle.

It's kind of laughable when people like Soubry are hailed for the "honour"...

Soubry voted for a referendum. She now admits this was only because she thought Remain would win.

Soubry said she would honour the referendum result and voted for Article 50. (even when May was saying publically that no deal was better than a bad deal)

Soubry stood on a Conservative manifesto. She left the party.

Soubry stood on a Brexit manifesto. She's tried to undermine all along.

There is no honour with Anna Soubry. WIth very few of them actually... they want a "peoples vote" because they claim people didn't know what they voting for, and yet refuse to re-stand for their own seats in a by-election... I guess the "peoples vote" doesn't apply to them.

I find it laughable that anybody supporting Brexit is continually getting called hard right... erm, no - the majority of the country voted for it.

 

[Federberg]

they want a "peoples vote" because they claim people didn't know what they voting for, and yet refuse to re-stand for their own seats in a by-election... I guess the "peoples vote" doesn't apply to them.

you do realise that they are well within their rights constitutionally right? The people have had their say on them already.

I think you're engaging in sophistry here, if you as well as other Brexiters think that the "honorable" thing to do is a by election, then I don't see what your objection is to a referendum is, if the vast majority of the electorate admit that they didn't have the facts at hand that they do now? You seem to want to have your cake and eat it

 

[Federberg]

Once the Brexit stuff is over with, I think the Conservatives are more likely to capture the middle ground than Labour.

The Independent Group members will get annihilated at the next election. In fact, once a withdrawal deal is done on Brexit, then they're a busted flush. It's a one trick pony group - I don't even think you should label them as "centre", they are just ardent Remainers, simple as. I've heard rumours Blair might be a puppet master with this vehicle.

you may well be right. Certainly history supports this view point. But we have never had this level of dysfunctionality before, so there is a not insignificant chance that we are seeing the evolution of a paradigm shift in British politics, which would be not before time. The parties are not aligned in a way that allows the people to truly express their will at the moment. And this has been the case for some time now. Something has to change, the old Labour vs Conservative dance is dated, if you were here you would see it, trust me

 

[britbox]

you do realise that they are well within their rights constitutionally right? The people have had their say on them already.

I think you're engaging in sophistry here, if you as well as other Brexiters think that the "honorable" thing to do is a by election, then I don't see what your objection is to a referendum is, if the vast majority of the electorate admit that they didn't have the facts at hand that they do now? You seem to want to have your cake and eat it

Constitutionally? Yes... Morally... No! and this is not a Brexiteers position... most of the Labour Party are requesting the same. The irony is that the people you mention want to have their cake and eat it... they are demanding a second vote, but refuse to put themselves up for one!!

 

[britbox]

you may well be right. Certainly history supports this view point. But we have never had this level of dysfunctionality before, so there is a not insignificant chance that we are seeing the evolution of a paradigm shift in British politics, which would be not before time. The parties are not aligned in a way that allows the people to truly express their will at the moment. And this has been the case for some time now. Something has to change, the old Labour vs Conservative dance is dated, if you were here you would see it, trust me

I'm seeing the battles over social media and talking with the folks back home (who are all split by the way) - you're also in the London bubble, the view up north is very different... even with northern remainers. The ones I speak with are sick of it and just want it done and dusted, apart from a few FBPE fanatics... and some of those are now locked into a Corbyn/Centrist battle beyond Brexit.

You are right in one respect... you never find a party that fits like a glove... but I'd suggest that's always been the case. The big issue you guys had was that you never had a vehicle to fight Brexit until now... and you've got a bunch of liars and hypocrites carrying the torch. It won't end well for any of them.

 

[britbox]

Interesting developments over the last couple of days...

May's deal gets defeated yet again.
A WTO Brexit is ruled out (although not legally binding)
There is no deal to replace a WTO Brexit

What a clusterfuck.

 

[Federberg]

and not surprisingly they've voted against a second referendum

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Interesting developments over the last couple of days...

May's deal gets defeated yet again.
A WTO Brexit is ruled out (although not legally binding)
There is no deal to replace a WTO Brexit

What a clusterfuck.

So, what are they voting on tomorrow?

 

[britbox]

So, what are they voting on tomorrow?

Putting the departure date back.

 

[Federberg]

I find it amusing watching what's going on at the moment. Theresa May practically begging for a reprieve. So much for increasing sovereignty. What a joke!

Meanwhile a petition to revoke article 50 has now garnered more than 2 million votes... https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/241584