UK Politics Thread

[Federberg]

That was always the short term prognosis in every Brexit scenario.

Indeed. The Tory argument has been that the EU is more likely to chicken out in this face off. That is a false assumption given the UK will suffer more than the EU

 

[britbox]

Indeed. The Tory argument has been that the EU is more likely to chicken out in this face off. That is a false assumption given the UK will suffer more than the EU

That's just a different argument altogether. This thing has to be brought to a head. The UK Economy will suffer initially, I said that before the vote even took place. But you can't have an impasse dragging out for years... it's nearly as damaging for investment as Brexit itself.

Who suffers more is kind of irrelevant... it's stupidity at it's finest. The EU likely has bigger issues looming on the horizon than Brexit. The whole project is fucked anyway long term. Better out now and take the pain.

 

[Federberg]

That's just a different argument altogether. This thing has to be brought to a head. The UK Economy will suffer initially, I said that before the vote even took place. But you can't have an impasse dragging out for years... it's nearly as damaging for investment as Brexit itself.

Who suffers more is kind of irrelevant... it's stupidity at it's finest. The EU likely has bigger issues looming on the horizon than Brexit. The whole project is fucked anyway long term. Better out now and take the pain.

it's not a different argument mate, it's the whole shebang! This is why Brexit was always an utterly stupid project. If you think that British sovereignty will be advanced by this project all I can ask is can I have some of what you're smoking please? It is hugely funny to me that the wealthy folks who are most prominent in pushing for Brexit are all jumping ship and leaving the UK. No doubt they have minimised their exposure to the British economy and they'll be buying sterling assets at knock down prices when this sorry saga has come to fruition. Well played to them for their cunning forethought. Sadly most of the plebs will be the ones to suffer. As for the rest of us we'll be forced to bend over to the US and any other world power that seeks to have it's way with the UK when this is over. Be careful what you wish for! I'll probably end up becoming a fucking vegan so I don't have eat chlorinated chicken from the US!

 

[britbox]

Whether you think Brexit is a stupid project or not is kind of irrelevant. The cases to leave or remain were made before the referendum vote.
Democracy always relies on the consent of the loser. If you don't believe that, then any kind of votes is pointless. Democracy is null and void.

It's funny to me that you think the "wealthy folks" were pushing for Brexit. No, they weren't.

Big business doesn't want Brexit. Don't compare Jeff Bezos to the likes of Jacob Rees-Mogg. Big business wants an EU Federation.

It means tbey don't need to lobby 28 countries and hundreds of politicians... they just need to lobby a few. You are aware that a group of around 50 EU companies are largely responsible for writing tbe EU economic policies already, yes?

At a UK level, Hammond's "Brexit Consultancy Mailing List" included the likes of Amazon (who paid about $5 million in corporation tax), yet left out the likes of JCB and Wetherspoon (with ro-brexit owners). Both of these companies are bigger employers and taxpayers from a UK perspective.

Now, guess where Hammond gets a job when his political career is over?

Where is Nick Clegg anyway? Oh yeah, he bunked out and is now creaming a salary from Facebook.

Let's talk about chickens. Chlorinated chicken.

This isn't an argument of much substance.
Even if supermarkets were flooded with these chickens, is anybody forcing you to buy and eat it? Seriously pal, if this is your argument then we don't have anywhere to go with this... I'll just assume you are an idiot. I don't say that readily, because I enjoy our discussions, but for heaven's sake...

*** Brexit is happening - I must buy and eat chlorinated chicken *** . Really?

Have you ever been to the States by the way? Did you spend your visit eating chlorinated chicken?

Funnily enough, I do remember plenty of people eating Donkey lasagne from the EU.... labelled as Beef. I'm assuming that you you remember that?

Anyway, this is kid's stuff.

So what do I agree with about your post?

Well, mny of the working class won't get a benefit from Brexit. I agree with that. But they won't get much from remaining either. It's a precursor to future unrest.

Automation, lack of jobs.... the EU will ultimately get the blame - justified or not... and it's China's century.

The EU will implode within two decades on a wave of right and left-wing populism. It might happen a lot sooner than you think.

 

[Federberg]

jeepers mate. Just seen this. Summarise for me please?

 

[britbox]

jeepers mate. Just seen this. Summarise for me please?

Lol.
1. The rich and Big Business don't want Brexit.
2. Arguments about chlorinated chicken are an irrelevant sideshow.
3. The EU will implode with or without Brexit.

 

[Federberg]

Lol.
1. The rich and Big Business don't want Brexit.
2. Arguments about chlorinated chicken are an irrelevant sideshow.
3. The EU will implode with or without Brexit.

I'm not sure I said that the rich in general support Brexit. I mentioned the rich folks who do support Brexit generally don't seem to be domiciled in the UK anymore

Lol! Of course it's a sideshow. Don't ever let Brexit take away your sense of humour mate!

I've always been of the view that the EU project is unlikely to succeed in the long term, but that relates more specifically to the euro. The was never a UK issue as we were never in the euro

 

[britbox]

I'm not sure I said that the rich in general support Brexit. I mentioned the rich folks who do support Brexit generally don't seem to be domiciled in the UK anymore

Lol! Of course it's a sideshow. Don't ever let Brexit take away your sense of humour mate!

I've always been of the view that the EU project is unlikely to succeed in the long term, but that relates more specifically to the euro. The was never a UK issue as we were never in the euro

Yep, I think the west, in general, is going to have a day of reckoning when it comes to economics. Everything is unsustainable.

 

[Federberg]

Yep, I think the west, in general, is going to have a day of reckoning when it comes to economics. Everything is unsustainable.

It's only unsustainable as long as the Germans refuse a fiscal union. If that changes then the euro could easily become a competing reserve currency

 

[Federberg]

Bojo has lost his majority. Now it's game on. Let's see what happens. Cable bounced a figure when the Tory MP walked across the aisle. Bojo's mendacity means that MPs won't take his word for it. A lesson for the orange one across the water? If you lie all the time, when it matters no one will believe you...

 

[britbox]

So much drama. Essentially, it's a battle of Leave v Remain. Let's not pretend this is about "No Deal"... it's about "No Brexit".
I think both sides will have game planned most of these outcomes already. It'll be interesting to see who comes out on top.

 

[Federberg]

So much drama. Essentially, it's a battle of Leave v Remain. Let's not pretend this is about "No Deal"... it's about "No Brexit".
I think both sides will have game planned most of these outcomes already. It'll be interesting to see who comes out on top.

You’re too far removed from this. Most Remainers can live with Brexit if it means an end to this. It’s not what they want but people are exhausted. No deal however terrifies most people apart from the complete idiots. And no one trusts Boris

 

[britbox]

You’re too far removed from this. Most Remainers can live with Brexit if it means an end to this. It’s not what they want but people are exhausted. No deal however terrifies most people apart from the complete idiots. And no one trusts Boris

I'm not talking about Remainers in general, this is about Parliamentarians. It's a two-headed beast - party politics and Remaining in the EU.

Most parliamentarians voted against a deal three times... and now they are voting against no deal, the one thing that offers leverage to improve the deal.

A further extension is meaningless. Nothing would change with the current make-up of the house. The EU will just watch this play out.

Parliament is not the government or executive. If they have no faith in the executive then they have the right to instigate a vote of no confidence. There are plenty of MPs who don't want to go down that route because they know they'll be voted out.

All indicators show that the Conservatives have planned for an election outcome already. The issue for them will be the fixed term parliament dimension. Labour has publically been asking for an election for the last two years, but as the bluff is called, will they want one? I doubt it. Neither will any of the MPs who crossed the house floor...

 

[Federberg]

I'm not talking about Remainers in general, this is about Parliamentarians. It's a two-headed beast - party politics and Remaining in the EU.

Most parliamentarians voted against a deal three times... and now they are voting against no deal, the one thing that offers leverage to improve the deal.

A further extension is meaningless. Nothing would change with the current make-up of the house. The EU will just watch this play out.

Parliament is not the government or executive. If they have no faith in the executive then they have the right to instigate a vote of no confidence. There are plenty of MPs who don't want to go down that route because they know they'll be voted out.

All indicators show that the Conservatives have planned for an election outcome already. The issue for them will be the fixed term parliament dimension. Labour has publically been asking for an election for the last two years, but as the bluff is called, will they want one? I doubt it. Neither will any of the MPs who crossed the house floor...

No it's not two headed. The vast majority of Remainer MPs are willing to countenance a soft Brexit. The problem is the complete breakdown in trust, particularly with Bojo. The man is in many ways a worse liar than Trump. At least with Trump he's a malignant narcissist with numerous other deficits, but Bojo is just a politician with no core. The other problem is that there are so many different specific demands the multiple sides are making. Even amongst those who are anti-no deal that tends to be the only point of agreement. No group has anything close to even a plurality. It is certainly not a simple binary choice as you present it. Life would be simpler and possibly more solvable if it was as simple as you think.

I agree there's very little chance of a Bojo election motion to pass today. That needs support from 2/3 of the House. Good luck with that! I'm not sure that either Labour or Tories should be too keen for one anyway. I know lots of folk like me who will be forced to vote Lib Dem this time around. I can't do Corbyn, and the Tories are a no no given the no deal nonsense from the most mental of them

 

[britbox]

No it's not two headed. The vast majority of Remainer MPs are willing to countenance a soft Brexit. The problem is the complete breakdown in trust, particularly with Bojo. The man is in many ways a worse liar than Trump. At least with Trump he's a malignant narcissist with numerous other deficits, but Bojo is just a politician with no core. The other problem is that there are so many different specific demands the multiple sides are making. Even amongst those who are anti-no deal that tends to be the only point of agreement. No group has anything close to even a plurality. It is certainly not a simple binary choice as you present it. Life would be simpler and possibly more solvable if it was as simple as you think.

I agree there's very little chance of a Bojo election motion to pass today. That needs support from 2/3 of the House. Good luck with that! I'm not sure that either Labour or Tories should be too keen for one anyway. I know lots of folk like me who will be forced to vote Lib Dem this time around. I can't do Corbyn, and the Tories are a no no given the no deal nonsense from the most mental of them

Disagree, The majority of Parliamentary Remainer MPs are not willing to countenance a soft Brexit for either ideology or party political reasons.

LibDems - Swinson, who has argued for a second referendum has gone on record to say she wouldn't accept the result even if a second vote resulted in a Brexit majority.

SNP - won't vote for Brexit under any circumstances.

Labour - Some Labour MPs have gone on record to say they won't vote for any Tory Brexit.

The May deal wasn't actually far off what the Labour Party had purported to want. It's not a true Brexit given the backstop and close alignment. Then they wanted guarantees on some workers rights... and got them. Then they moved onto the political declaration... and got compromises... then they moved onto future trade plans... it doesn't matter - they'll always find a reason to oppose the government.

Boris will likely lose today again. Particularly with the expulsions.

This is great drama in parliament. Fascinating to see how it plays out.

 

[Federberg]

Disagree, The majority of Parliamentary Remainer MPs are not willing to countenance a soft Brexit for either ideology or party political reasons.

LibDems - Swinson, who has argued for a second referendum has gone on record to say she wouldn't accept the result even if a second vote resulted in a Brexit majority.

SNP - won't vote for Brexit under any circumstances.

Labour - Some Labour MPs have gone on record to say they won't vote for any Tory Brexit.

The May deal wasn't actually far off what the Labour Party had purported to want. It's not a true Brexit given the backstop and close alignment. Then they wanted guarantees on some workers rights... and got them. Then they moved onto the political declaration... and got compromises... then they moved onto future trade plans... it doesn't matter - they'll always find a reason to oppose the government.

Boris will likely lose today again. Particularly with the expulsions.

This is great drama in parliament. Fascinating to see how it plays out.

there's a difference between not voting for a Tory Brexit deal, and being willing to vote for a soft Brexit. That's the point I'm making. And the quagmire we're in. It's not a binary situation at all. That would be better than what we have. Anyway... I hope we get another vote. It pisses me off that no one even talks about Russian involvement in the original referendum. Talk about surrendering your sovereignty

 

[tented]

@Federberg @britbox @JesuslookslikeBorg

What do you guys think should happen, and what do you think will happen with Brexit?

 

[britbox]

there's a difference between not voting for a Tory Brexit deal, and being willing to vote for a soft Brexit. That's the point I'm making. And the quagmire we're in. It's not a binary situation at all. That would be better than what we have. Anyway... I hope we get another vote. It pisses me off that no one even talks about Russian involvement in the original referendum. Talk about surrendering your sovereignty

When the referendum was run, the Tories were in power... so any Brexit was going to be a Tory Brexit. Both sides committed to respect the result and implement. I'm not buying this Russian crap... it seems to have become the de facto excuse for lost votes.

The UK Government, the EU, the NHS, the CBI, FSB, most banks, the unions, the American President were all promoting remain, not to mention a 9 million pound leafleting campaign to every UK household before the hustings even began. The odds were firmly stacked in the Remain campaigns favour... and yet they still lost.

 

[britbox]

@Federberg @britbox @JesuslookslikeBorg

What do you guys think should happen, and what do you think will happen with Brexit?

What will happen? It's high drama - I don't think anyone can even guess - it's that unpredictable. I suspect there will have to be a general election in the very near future. However, it's what happens before then that will shape the campaigns.

What should happen? Let's start at the top. Calling a referendum, let the genie out of the bottle.

Voters were categorically told that it was a one-off vote and the decision would be implemented. Legally, the referendum was advisory. However, it was specified in no uncertain terms, that the people's choice would be respected.

So, my view is that Brexit has to be implemented in some shape or form. This ranges from a BRINO (Brexit in name only) to a Hard Brexit. It's a wide spectrum. You're not going to please all of the people wherever you land within that range.

If Article 50 is revoked and Brexit is reversed, the UK will have little more credibility overseas than a banana republic... and certainly no legitimacy to call out the governments of other countries on anything related to democracy or internal affairs.

The other alternative is a second referendum.

The problem with a second referendum is that it's widely known that's the EU way of doing business. Keep asking the question until you get the answer you want. We've seen the same blueprint before. Get the first vote wrong, then whip up a frenzy of fear before asking the question again. It's part of the EU playbook.

UK politicians had promised the first referendum was a one-off, so enacting this play destroys trust in democracy and the little already left in politics. Still, it's marginally cleaner than revoking Article 50 without one

So, in a nutshell - Brexit has to be implemented. The bigger question concerns what form it takes.

 

[tented]

The problem with a second referendum is that it's widely known that's the EU way of doing business. Keep asking the question until you get the answer you want. We've seen the same blueprint before. Get the first vote wrong, then whip up a frenzy of fear before asking the question again. It's part of the EU playbook.

My impression all along has been that something like a game of Truth or Dare was played, with the expectation that Dare wouldn’t be picked. But it was. And now no one can figure out what to do with an outcome which wasn’t really expected.

For me, at least, as an American, the whole thing came as a surprise to begin with, and has devolved into an almost unsolvable mess. The more I learn, the more complicated it becomes. The repercussions are vast.

UK politicians had promised the first referendum was a one-off, so enacting this play destroys trust in democracy and the little already left in politics. Still, it's marginally cleaner than revoking Article 50 without one

So, in a nutshell - Brexit has to be implemented. The bigger question concerns what form it takes.

That’s a significant factor, as I see it. “Get the first vote wrong” then do it again is the very essence of the proverbial slippery slope.

Thanks for such an articulate summary. I appreciate it.