UK Politics Thread

Federberg

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What are you talking about? He is your PM now.
Lol! Boris was always going to win. I'm sorry if we... @Horsa, @britbox and I didn't make that clear to you. There was no scenario short of some incredible scandal that wouldn't have seen Boris win unfortunately.

We now have our own blonde buffoon. It seems that we follow all American fashions, even the dumb ones... :facepalm:
 
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Federberg

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Bojo could lose his majority if one of his Remainers defects to the Lib Dems! We'll know in the next day or so I think...
 

Federberg

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looks like we could race towards a general election. I swear to god... if Labour got rid of Corbyn they would lead the polls by 20 points in an instant! Even I would probably vote for them if they got rid of that communist anti-Semitic terrorist loving motherfucker
 

britbox

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Lots to play out on this. I think the Tories are already in election mode. The numbers don't lie but there are a lot of caveats...

Do Labour really want an election in the short term future? There are a lot of worried Labour MPs. Plenty in Brexit voting seats. Official policy is that Labour want an election... I doubt that is the unofficial policy.

Will Remainer Conservatives want a general election? They'll likely have to stand on a Brexit manifesto... would they bring down their own government to stand days later on a Brexit manifesto? I'm guessing only the ones who have figured out that they aren't going to be around after an election...

In the event of an election, will the Tory Brexiteers come to some sort of arrangement with the Brexit Party?

How will the Remainer vote be split? I can't see Corbyn and Swinson coming to any arrangement.

My prediction would be that the people won't be voting on tribal party lines so much as in the past, the Brexit v Remain has taken the tribal fight to another level, so that will in many cases have a huge impact on traditional voting patterns.

My gut feeling is that quite bizarrely the Tories might win a majority. I think a lot of Labour Remainers will go FibDem (not a typo) and some Leavers will vote Conservative for the first time in their life.
 

Federberg

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It's so funny hearing Brexiters claiming that any attempt at another referendum is anti-democratic, but Bojo who is an unelected leader can suspend parliament to frustrate the ability of the people to have their say? Yup... very democratic! :facepalm:

I may never be able to vote Tory again after this. Not sure who I can vote for, but I won't forgive a 'no deal'..... ever
 

britbox

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Good. It has to be brought to a head and he's going to break the impasse one way or another.

Most of the people screaming blue murder aren't just against a No Deal Brexit, they are against any form of Brexit.

The Labour Party could easily have voted for May's deal - it wasn't a mile away from the type of Brexit they wanted. They chose not to, purely on party political grounds.

The only way you'll see any movement from the EU (if at all) is if all efforts to reverse the vote are exhausted. They have no need to move on anything until that point.
 

Federberg

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Good. It has to be brought to a head and he's going to break the impasse one way or another.

Most of the people screaming blue murder aren't just against a No Deal Brexit, they are against any form of Brexit.

The Labour Party could easily have voted for May's deal - it wasn't a mile away from the type of Brexit they wanted. They chose not to, purely on party political grounds.

The only way you'll see any movement from the EU (if at all) is if all efforts to reverse the vote are exhausted. They have no need to move on anything until that point.
I see you're still holding to the hope that they'll chicken out in the face of a 'no deal'? As I've been saying since the election they'll take the pain of 'no deal' if it forever scares other nations out of contemplating exiting the EU (Italy!). They calculate correctly that 'no deal' will be a magnitude more harmful to the UK economy that to the EU. The Trumpian misunderstanding of trade deficits and surplus's is stunning these days. Folks need to re-read Dornbusch and Fischer! I think Bojo is the one who's more likely to capitulate...
 

britbox

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I see you're still holding to the hope that they'll chicken out in the face of a 'no deal'? As I've been saying since the election they'll take the pain of 'no deal' if it forever scares other nations out of contemplating exiting the EU (Italy!). They calculate correctly that 'no deal' will be a magnitude more harmful to the UK economy that to the EU. The Trumpian misunderstanding of trade deficits and surplus's is stunning these days. Folks need to re-read Dornbusch and Fischer! I think Bojo is the one who's more likely to capitulate...

You seem to be forgetting that the EU agreed on a deal once already, and prior to that Tusk and the Brexit office had formed a basic framework of a free trade agreement along the lines of Canada++++. May, on the advice of the Civil Service, chose not to go down this route and went off in her own direction for closer alignment.

Now the hard Brexiteers want no deal. If Johnson doesn't get a deal I think he'll roll with it and a general election will follow. If Johnson capitulates, he's toast, the Tories are toast.

What I'm saying is that the EU won't even consider budging at all until that scenario is probable. Why would they? They'll just watch the Brits fighting like ferrets in a sack. If Johnson happens to be the guy who comes out of the other side, then they have a situation to deal with.

You're saying they won't budge at all. That may be the case. I'm saying Johnson will Brexit if they don't. The likelihood is that they tweak May's deal and do something with the Irish Backstop.
 

Federberg

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You seem to be forgetting that the EU agreed on a deal once already, and prior to that Tusk and the Brexit office had formed a basic framework of a free trade agreement along the lines of Canada++++. May, on the advice of the Civil Service, chose not to go down this route and went off in her own direction for closer alignment.

Now the hard Brexiteers want no deal. If Johnson doesn't get a deal I think he'll roll with it and a general election will follow. If Johnson capitulates, he's toast, the Tories are toast.

What I'm saying is that the EU won't even consider budging at all until that scenario is probable. Why would they? They'll just watch the Brits fighting like ferrets in a sack. If Johnson happens to be the guy who comes out of the other side, then they have a situation to deal with.

You're saying they won't budge at all. That may be the case. I'm saying Johnson will Brexit if they don't. The likelihood is that they tweak May's deal and do something with the Irish Backstop.
that's the arrogance that Bojo is applying to this tragedy. There are so many miscalculations going on here it reminds me of the lead up to the Great War. The Irish backstop is unlikely to be negotiable. It goes to the very heart of the EU protecting their own. I think a 'no deal' is almost inevitable at this point. The only question is how effective will Bojo be at blaming the EU for it...
 

britbox

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that's the arrogance that Bojo is applying to this tragedy. There are so many miscalculations going on here it reminds me of the lead up to the Great War. The Irish backstop is unlikely to be negotiable. It goes to the very heart of the EU protecting their own. I think a 'no deal' is almost inevitable at this point. The only question is how effective will Bojo be at blaming the EU for it...

Jeez, not you as well. The hyperbole and narrative around some of this stuff are beyond ridiculous.
 

Federberg

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Jeez, not you as well. The hyperbole and narrative around some of this stuff are beyond ridiculous.
it would be hyperbolic if I was implying that this is as big a deal as the Great War. I'm talking about process ;)
 

britbox

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it would be hyperbolic if I was implying that this is as big a deal as the Great War. I'm talking about process ;)

It's too early to call anything a miscalculation... unless we are talking about the Anti-Brexit meeting of the minds earlier in the week. Lots of twists to come in this tale...
 

Federberg

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It's too early to call anything a miscalculation... unless we are talking about the Anti-Brexit meeting of the minds earlier in the week. Lots of twists to come in this tale...
any outcome that's mutually damaging to the EU and the UK would fit the description perfectly
 
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