UK Politics Thread

Horsa

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I think that our governments handling of Brexit is a complete & utter shambles. They're not giving us the Brexit we voted for. We could actually be worse off out of the E.U. both short-term & in the long run with the agreements that keep getting put on the table as these agreements will mean we still have to abide by E.U. laws & pay money into the E.U. If I'd have known this was going to happen I wouldn't have voted as this fiasco is making me think that there is no proper democracy in the U.K. & what's more I'll never vote again. From what I've heard many people where I live think & feel the same way I do about this.
 

britbox

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So, Parliament wrestles away control from May and puts up 8 alternatives to her plan... and votes against all of them... You couldn't make this stuff up.
 

GameSetAndMath

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So, Parliament wrestles away control from May and puts up 8 alternatives to her plan... and votes against all of them... You couldn't make this stuff up.

Why did May think if she offers to resign, folks will accept the plan? She passed the vote of confidence. Folks have confidence in her, but may be not in her plans. :p
 

britbox

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Why did May think if she offers to resign, folks will accept the plan? She passed the vote of confidence. Folks have confidence in her, but may be not in her plans. :p

She wouldn't pass a vote of confidence now... that was a while ago.

People may accept the plan on the basis of her resignation because it's a withdrawal agreement. The bigger negotiations in the future are for the long term relationship and they don't want her running the show. Nobody has confidence in her at this stage.

The vote will be interesting. I still think she'll lose but it'll be close this time.
 

Federberg

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will she finally get the message? I think she mistakes stubbornness for toughness
 

britbox

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will she finally get the message? I think she mistakes stubbornness for toughness
I think she'll be gone next week mate. Parliament might actually come to a consensus on something on Monday, I suspect they might gather around Ken Clarke's way forward. A Brexit with a Customs Union. May is done.
 

britbox

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My guess would be Gove, just because there will be a 'Stop Boris' campaign

You're probably right - Gove is such a snake in the grass though. Not very electorate friendly IMO, Boris might command some ERG support but I don't think this is the time or place for him. I'd still go with David Davis. Brexiteer, pragmatic, speaks well, not an Eton or Harrow guy, council estate boy "done good"... will appeal to some Labour Brexiteers and some of the traditional Labour-supporting working class base who were firmly in favour of Brexit.
 

Federberg

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You're probably right - Gove is such a snake in the grass though. Not very electorate friendly IMO, Boris might command some ERG support but I don't think this is the time or place for him. I'd still go with David Davis. Brexiteer, pragmatic, speaks well, not an Eton or Harrow guy, council estate boy "done good"... will appeal to some Labour Brexiteers and some of the traditional Labour-supporting working class base who were firmly in favour of Brexit.
that's who I would go for as well. But I'm just trying to think like a Tory MP :)
 
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GameSetAndMath

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So, now that March 29th has come and gone, what happens. Can we officially declare the apocalypse of UK?
 

britbox

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Parliament will likely try and rally around one of the alternative plans early next week. If that fails again, then it'll either be looking at revoking or requesting a long extension of Article 50 (remaining in the EU) or a WTO Brexit.

There is also the possibility of a no-confidence vote being carried on the longer this drags out. In that scenario, there will be a general election. That will be interesting in itself because manifestos will come under intense scrutiny and I don't think MPs will be afforded the luxury of being able to go against their party manifestos in the subsequent parliamentary sessions.

There is a Leave.EU Campaign being orchestrated outside Parliament to deselect Conservative MPs who stood on a Brexit manifesto and then moved against it. Dominic Grieve was a casualty yesterday. At the next General Election, he won't be a candidate for his seat unless he runs as an independent. His constituency was mainly for leaving, so he's toast.

In the event of a General Election, I think a stronger Brexit Parliament will be returned, largely due to Remain voters having more options to vote for in a "first past the post" electoral system. Some Remain Conservatives will be deselected and Corbyn (Labour leader) doesn't enjoy the same wave of popularity now that he had at the prior election. Much would depend on the manifestos of both major parties.
 

GameSetAndMath

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Let me put it bluntly. Does not the EU have the right to say, get lost to UK now. UK is no longer in a position of negotiating the terms of agreements of leaving EU.
 

britbox

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Let me put it bluntly. Does not the EU have the right to say, get lost to UK now. UK is no longer in a position of negotiating the terms of agreements of leaving EU.

Of course, it does. The EU might consider doing that. I don't think they'll be too happy with more Brexiteers arriving in the EU Parliament. I don't think they'll be pleased with Brexit continuing to be the focal point of business.
 

GameSetAndMath

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Apparently, If there are no further developments, Brexit with no deal happens on 12th April.
 

britbox

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Apparently, If there are no further developments, Brexit with no deal happens on 12th April.

The UK Parliament has now ruled against a no-deal Brexit. However, it's really out of their hands. The EU will decide on the next extension. If they don't give an extension then it's either a WTO Brexit or Parliament will need to revoke Article 50. I suspect the latter would happen in that scenario.

Short Extension... probably only possible if May and Corbyn cobble something together. I find this pretty unlikely. Corbyn doesn't want to be directly tainted and associated with this fiasco. The majority of the Conservative Party don't want to be associated with doing a deal with Corbyn. Still, stranger things have happened in the debacle. IF May cobbles something together with Corbyn, then we're venturing into the unknown... there are so many variables.... could mean a vote of no-confidence brought by her own party, general election... who know...

Long Extension... EU has already said there will be political strings attached. I'm guessing that would be a second referendum... which depending on how the question is framed could be the biggest democratic stitch-up in political history.

Third Option: Revoke Article 50 and Remain.

This whole thing is making Game of Thrones look like a Liberal Democrat Luncheon.
 

Federberg

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The UK Parliament has now ruled against a no-deal Brexit. However, it's really out of their hands. The EU will decide on the next extension. If they don't give an extension then it's either a WTO Brexit or Parliament will need to revoke Article 50. I suspect the latter would happen in that scenario.

Short Extension... probably only possible if May and Corbyn cobble something together. I find this pretty unlikely. Corbyn doesn't want to be directly tainted and associated with this fiasco. The majority of the Conservative Party don't want to be associated with doing a deal with Corbyn. Still, stranger things have happened in the debacle. IF May cobbles something together with Corbyn, then we're venturing into the unknown... there are so many variables.... could mean a vote of no-confidence brought by her own party, general election... who know...

Long Extension... EU has already said there will be political strings attached. I'm guessing that would be a second referendum... which depending on how the question is framed could be the biggest democratic stitch-up in political history.

Third Option: Revoke Article 50 and Remain.

This whole thing is making Game of Thrones look like a Liberal Democrat Luncheon.
I don't think the Tories can put forward a vote of no confidence again, if you mean within the Tory party. Of course they can do one in the House of Parliament, but that would force a general election. I'm not sure they want that. I think the hardliners shot their load by going for the vote of no confidence too early. Now they have to wait for 12 months. Their hands are tied now
 
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