UK Politics Thread

[britbox]

Ha, so George Soros donates 400,000 pound to the Remain campaign. When will this oligarch learn to keep his nose out?

 

[Nekro]

Ha, so George Soros donates 400,000 pound to the Remain campaign. When will this oligarch learn to keep his nose out?

yes and he lately spends his money on futile lost causes..... man, if they can reverse brexit i will be like wow , clap clap

He could have bought us a huge castle in wales instead.... with some cool anciently decorated spa in the middle, yeah, we could make it our headquarters with you, Lawrence and the girls, Betty, Mimi and Ann.... They would go ard shopping , horse riding and relaxing, we would chill in the pool like some fat fucks making plans about Welsh independence.... i mean i know you're a unionist and all that but you know union is easy, independence is something to get excited about...... Yeah and Soros would also buy us an institute for the research and preservation of welsh language, and a big welsh teaching center for kids.... in the castle we would have a recording studio for lawrence to record his welsh patriotic songs,,,, we would play in his band for fun and ofc Uncle Soros would give us a fat bank account for all the expensive junk we need

 

[mrzz]

Can you folks out there in Britain (and British people abroad who follow politics back home) give your insights on the political climate these last weeks? Seems quite bad from the outside.

 

[Federberg]

Can you folks out there in Britain (and British people abroad who follow politics back home) give your insights on the political climate these last weeks? Seems quite bad from the outside.

I wouldn't characterise it as terrible. The governing party, Conservatives, have an extremely weak leader at the moment, who is faced with tough negotiations with the EU on Brexit. The government over-promised about how strong their negotiation position was and that's coming home to roost now (I actually argued this point on this forum and it's looking more correct every week). It is becoming increasingly obvious to the entire electorate that the UK will not be able to get many of the things they wanted. Bear in mind that one of the Leaver arguments was that the UK will still be in NATO and they would be able to negotiate favourable trade deals with the rest of the world. Both of these arguments look decidedly weak now with Trump agitating for trade wars and his lack of enthusiastic support for the UK given Russian assassinations on UK soil. The UK has been made to look isolated and weak. And now this week we see the news about Cambridge Analytica and the possibility they were involved in the Brexit referendum. I wouldn't go so far as to say there's much soul searching going on but it's given many food for thought. We're a fairly practical bunch here so we're just getting on with it. But it is interesting that the main opposition leader, who was not enthusiastic about Remaining is now positioning himself for as soft a Brexit as possible. This tells you where the political winds are blowing. I know Britbox will disagree with me, but I'll tell you this. If they did the referendum again, there would be a comfortable majority for Remain. I say this, because for the first time some Conservative voters are openly discussing whether it's worth the risk voting for Labour if it means the referendum can be revisited. This is a fairly shocking turnaround because I can't describe to you how hard left a leader Jeremy Corbyn (Labour leader) is

 

[britbox]

Well @mrzz, I think firstly that Brexit (which I assume you are alluding to) is a very convoluted, multi-dimensional issue with so many contradictions and eccentricities.

There is a Conservative Leader (Theresa May) who voted to remain, leading a party that has a majority of leavers.

There is a Labour Leader (Jeremy Corbyn) who (allegedly voted to remain), but whose past indicates he is quite Anti-EU, leading a parliamentary party that is vastly in favour of remaining. Corbyn came from the hard left... the same crew as Dennis Skinner etc... who are not in favour of EU Federalism. Skinner, for example votes No to anything EU and is still one of Corbyns strongest supporters.

Labour, in the last election, pledged to carry through the Leave mandate. This swelled their vote from the traditional working class in many heartlands who had previously flipped to UKIP and voted to leave. The Conservatives wrongly judged that UKIP supporters would boost their vote... a large number returned to Labour, based on the parties pledge to leave.

I don't think there would be anything comfortable about a second referendum. I'm guessing a large swathe of the northern working class would vote to leave again and leave the Labour ranks. There are also plenty of people who voted to remain that would now vote to leave (because many Brits won't like being asked twice and will go with the first result). Still, I suspect Federberg might be right... but it won't be comfortable and will still be close. Being told you were wrong the first time and should vote again, won't sit well with a lot of people.

As for the Brexit process.... it was never going to be pretty. The EU has no need to make a deal... yet. Why would they? The only time they will do a deal is at the 11th hour when German manufacturers would put a lot of pressure on Merkel (who is not in a strong position right now herself)... up until that point they will be rubbing their hands with glee at Theresa May's weak position and the possible downfall of the government. What the Brits needed to do was play hardball and go into the negotiations on the basis of a hard Brexit, WTO Tariffs and get a deal at the 11th hour. The economy was always going to suffer in the short term anyway... but what the markets need is clarity.

 

[Horsa]

Can you folks out there in Britain (and British people abroad who follow politics back home) give your insights on the political climate these last weeks? Seems quite bad from the outside.

I can't I'm afraid. I stopped watching & listening to the news & reading newspapers & I've been very busy doing other things.

 

[Federberg]

There are also plenty of people who voted to remain that would now vote to leave (because many Brits won't like being asked twice and will go with the first result).

lol! come again? Statistically I'm sure there'll definitely be some, but a vanishingly small amount. The narrative here is overwhelmingly "we never seriously thought the vote would be for leave"

 

[Horsa]

lol! come again? Statistically I'm sure there'll definitely be some, but a vanishingly small amount. The narrative here is overwhelmingly "we never seriously thought the vote would be for leave"

If there was another referendum I wouldn't vote because I don't think the electorate was listened to & action was taken quick enough.

 

[britbox]

lol! come again? Statistically I'm sure there'll definitely be some, but a vanishingly small amount. The narrative here is overwhelmingly "we never seriously thought the vote would be for leave"

No, it isn't.... if you think people voted to leave because they didn't think anyone else would, then you're fooling yourself. That's a "remain" Alistair Campbell argument which is clinging to a ridiculous argument. The fact is the majority of Brits voted leave... for various reasons... I would suggest that the reason you suscribe too is way down the list... and yeah, there are remainers who would now vote leave. May's last election result should tell you something... people don't like unnecessary opportunist election calls.

What is far more significant is the UKIP vote that returned to labour when they pledged to carry out the Leave mandate. If they backtrack then they'll likely never be forgiven. We're talking upto millions of people here... not a few of Alistair Campbells' hypothetical "friends' who apparently said they voted leave because they thought it would never happen.

 

[britbox]

...and seriously man, did you learn nothing by the first Brexit vote and Trump's election...?

 

[Federberg]

No, it isn't.... if you think people voted to leave because they didn't think anyone else would, then you're fooling yourself. That's a "remain" Alistair Campbell argument which is clinging to a ridiculous argument. The fact is the majority of Brits voted leave... for various reasons... I would suggest that the reason you suscribe too is way down the list... and yeah, there are remainers who would now vote leave. May's last election result should tell you something... people don't like unnecessary opportunist election calls.

What is far more significant is the UKIP vote that returned to labour when they pledged to carry out the Leave mandate. If they backtrack then they'll likely never be forgiven. We're talking upto millions of people here... not a few of Alistair Campbells' hypothetical "friends' who apparently said they voted leave because they thought it would never happen.

Lol! I'm here mate. I suspect I have a rather clearer view of what's going on here than you. Corbyn won votes overwhelming from new young voters who were pissed off about university fees. And May didn't help herself at all, quite apart from a stupendously pathetic campaign. It was not about defending the Leave mandate. Sorry but you're wrong. This is why the consensus is that if the election had been a few weeks later Labour would have won the most seats

 

[Federberg]

here's one post-election analysis. Notice there's nothing about Brexit in there

http://www.gq-magazine.co.uk/article/jeremy-corbyn-general-election-2017

 

[britbox]

Different argument altogether... the election was not really about Brexit... it was supposed to have been... May wanted to pad her majority to make the process easier and looked in good shape to do it before the hustings began. Corbyn promised all things to all... he got the Brexit elephant out of the room by promising that Labour would carry the Brexit mandate through... that brought back his disaffected working class support who had moved to UKIP... that's not fiction, it's fact... Labour picked up more of the UKIP vote than Conservative ( a shock to many, including me).

Once that elephant was out of the room, Corbyn promised anything and everything... including millions of "well paid jobs", removing university debt and a bunch of other stuff. Most of it undeliverable in practice... but he sold hope, positivity and ran a great campaign marshaled by a ton of foot soldiers. May's campaign was garbage.

 

[Federberg]

Different argument altogether... the election was not really about Brexit... it was supposed to have been... May wanted to pad her majority to make the process easier and looked in good shape to do it before the hustings began. Corbyn promised all things to all... he got the Brexit elephant out of the room by promising that Labour would carry the Brexit mandate through... that brought back his disaffected working class support who had moved to UKIP... that's not fiction, it's fact... Labour picked up more of the UKIP vote than Conservative ( a shock to many, including me).

Once that elephant was out of the room, Corbyn promised anything and everything... including millions of "well paid jobs", removing university debt and a bunch of other stuff. Most of it undeliverable in practice... but he sold hope, positivity and ran a great campaign marshaled by a ton of foot soldiers. May's campaign was garbage.

It wasn't a surprise to most people here, seeing as the bulk of the Brexit voters were Labour supporters in the North. I repeat what was unusual about Corbyn's success was his ability to pull in a whole new voter segment. The youth. He had huge momentum and it almost won him the whole thing. Theresa May's calculation was that Labour was in disarray and no one wanted to see Corbyn in Downing Street. Like Hillary she made no positive case for why voters should come to her. She did not call the election because she saw the Brexit referendum as a vote winner for her. If you think that, then you have completely mis-read the election

 

[britbox]

It wasn't a surprise to most people here, seeing as the bulk of the Brexit voters were Labour supporters in the North. I repeat what was unusual about Corbyn's success was his ability to pull in a whole new voter segment. The youth. He had huge momentum and it almost won him the whole thing. Theresa May's calculation was that Labour was in disarray and no one wanted to see Corbyn in Downing Street. Like Hillary she made no positive case for why voters should come to her. She did not call the election because she saw the Brexit referendum as a vote winner for her. If you think that, then you have completely mis-read the election

I didn't say she called the election because Brexit was a vote winner... she called the election because she thought she could increase her majority (based on the polls at the time) to carry Brexit more easily through parliament...There is a difference.

 

[britbox]

As for Corbyn... yeah he did marshal the youth... it was well-orchestrated. My niece got about 5 texts on voting day to go and vote. He put together a pretty impressive infrastructure and marshaled the troops.

 

[Federberg]

I didn't say she called the election because Brexit was a vote winner... she called the election because she thought she could increase her majority (based on the polls at the time) to carry Brexit more easily through parliament...There is a difference.

that's not what you implied, but ok. Her polls were good at the time because she was still a relative novelty for the electorate and the Labour party was in disarray. It was opportunistic and yes one of the benefits would have been making it easier to pass Brexit legislation, but don't discount the fact she wanted her own mandate

 

[britbox]

I don't think I implied that at all, but on the other, yes, it was opportunistic and I think it was to give her a bigger mandate to carry out the Brexit process and also to rubberstamp her own governance... after all, she was never elected as a sitting PM.

 

[Federberg]

I don't think I implied that at all, but on the other, yes, it was opportunistic and I think it was to give her a bigger mandate to carry out the Brexit process and also to rubberstamp her own governance... after all, she was never elected as a sitting PM.

you know I'm an argumentative motherfucker! Why are you poking the bear?

This is what you said. I quote....

"Different argument altogether... the election was not really about Brexit... it was supposed to have been... May wanted to pad her majority to make the process easier and looked in good shape to do it before the hustings began."

 

[britbox]

Lol. Let me make it clear... She wanted the increased majority to make Brexit easier... not using Brexit as "vote me" argument.