The Rankings Thread (ATP)

Kieran

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Sorry, but they should be. There's never been a 34 year old who wasn't on crutches, clutching his chest and gasping for air through a straw between points. Murray is not only not dispatching Wodger in straights - he's being dispatched in straights himself! :cover He's lost the last five times, winning only one set. :cover

In one match, he won only one game. :cover :cover

And Novak is making heavy weather of Federer too, witness the last two Wimbo finals, and this years US Open final...
 

Kirijax

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Kieran said:
He's getting hammered by an octogenarian, that's a teensy bit disappointing, no? Okay, so the Deathless One is ridiculously, eh, conditioned, but even still, Muzza should be dispatching him in routine straights.

And so should Novak...

Just trying to stay positive and looking at the good stuff, my friend. ;)

Federer is Federer. What are you going to do?
 

Front242

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Kieran said:
Sorry, but they should be. There's never been a 34 year old who wasn't on crutches, clutching his chest and gasping for air through a straw between points. Murray is not only not dispatching Wodger in straights - he's being dispatched in straights himself! :cover He's lost the last five times, winning only one set. :cover

In one match, he won only one game. :cover :cover

And Novak is making heavy weather of Federer too, witness the last two Wimbo finals, and this years US Open final...

Re the WTF drubbing, Federer along with Djokovic are leagues ahead of everyone else on indoor hard.
Re Novak at the past 2 Wimbledon finals, there's a reason it's hard to beat Federer there even when he's far from his best. Namely he's won it 7 times. Counts for something surely. His game is perfect for grass. 34 year olds run and react a bit slower than 28 year olds but it's not like the guy should be losing 6-3 6-2 6-2 to Novak either. I'm twice the age of some kids in the gym and lift way more weight than them. Just 'cos they're younger doesn't mean they should be stronger and apart from a select few, they're not.
 

Kieran

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Look, Murray was 11-9 up in the H2H with Federer, and now he's lost the last five, winning only one set. Now, either Federer is freakish - which we'll both agree on, though using different meanings of the word - or Murray has let himself down.

Or it's a bit of both.

Either way, it's a hugely disappointing year for Murray when we compare him to players who are actual contenders for majors.

Novak should be dispatching Federer the way Rafa did at Oz in 2014. Nole is fit and at the top of his game. Dropping sets shouldn't be on his agenda...
 

Front242

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Kieran said:
Look, Murray was 11-9 up in the H2H with Federer, and now he's lost the last five, winning only one set. Now, either Federer is freakish - which we'll both agree on, though using different meanings of the word - or Murray has let himself down.

Or it's a bit of both.

Either way, it's a hugely disappointing year for Murray when we compare him to players who are actual contenders for majors.

Novak should be dispatching Federer the way Rafa did at Oz in 2014. Nole is fit and at the top of his game. Dropping sets shouldn't be on his agenda...

Sorry dude but if Novak drops 2 sets to Kevin freakin' Anderson then it's a bit rich making a song and dance about him losing a whole one set to Roger Federer at Wimbledon of all places. Now, on the AO courts a straight sets win for Novak would not be unexpected but anywhere else that isn't a slow/medium hard court, no, he's not as much ahead of Federer as you'd like to believe and the facts (match scores) back it up. It's only Federer's poor break point conversion and obvious loss of some speed and reaction time and pretty pedestrian forehand that is the difference. Otherwise as the scores would indicate, he's still right up there with him.
 

Kieran

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It's got to do with age. Of course Federer isn't ageing naturally, it's insane how youthful his reflexes are, and how impressive his stamina and endurance are considering the mileage he has. But even still, Novak is at his best now and Federer is 34. Doesn't matter if they play swingball in Wodger's back garden in front of all the twins, Nole should be hammering him in straights, not struggling and leaving the result in doubt til the end...
 

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I missed some of the shenanigans several pages back and from a couple weeks ago, but wanted to add some thoughts to the mix. If you look at Slam final wins, Novak and Rafa definitely have beaten better opponents than Roger. There's no way around that. Novak has beaten either Rafa or Roger six times, Rafa has beaten either Roger or Novak ten times, and Roger has beaten the other two just three times; if we throw in his win over Agassi, then Roger has four Slam titles against all-time greats - far less than Novak or Rafa.

Roger did beat some weak players. His Slamless headcount is four: Mark Philippousis, Marcos Baghdatis, Fernando Gonzalez, and Robin Soderling. Rafa's is also four: Mariano Puerta, Robin Soderling, Tomas Berdych, and David Ferrer. Actually, Rafa has a higher percentage of his Slam wins over Slamless opponents (29%) than Roger (24%).

One thing in support of Roger is that part of the reason he defeated so many players with 0-2 Slams is that, well, he kept their Slam totals low by defeating them! Two players in particular come to mind: Murray, who he defeated three times (and has also lost to Novak three times), and Andy Roddick, who he defeated in a Slam final four times. Roger's dominance of his own generation was truly unlike any other, at least going back to maybe Bjorn Borg (I'm considering McEnroe as being in the generation after Borg).

Another thing to consider is that while Roger has only 4 titles against greats, he's played 13 Slam finals against greats - not far behind Rafa's 15, and still ahead of Novak's 11. Yes, he is 4-9 in Slam finals against 6+ Slam winners, but that's mainly because his main rivals were players 5-6 years younger than him.

In the end, it is really hard to compare the three, or at least hard to compare Roger with Novak and Rafa, easier to compare Novak and Rafa to each other as they are only a year apart. We can't know what Roger's record would look like if one of his peers was closer to him in ability. What if Marat Safin had been more consistent and dedicated? What if David Nalbandian had a head to match his talent? Fun to think about, but in the end what happened is what happened. Roger utterly dominated his generation, winning 11 of 16 Slams from 2004-07 and 15 of 28 from 2003-09. Those can't be taken away from him, no matter how we try to diminish his record.

But I think we can also say that he's been surpassed by Nadal and Djokovic, in a similar way that Borg surpassed Connors and McEnroe surpassed Borg, and Lendl surpassed McEnroe. The baton gets passed, and the game evolves. We can't know what a 2006 Federer would look like against a 2015 Djokovic, but we can honor them both for their greatness.

As an aside, the all-time great who has the softest Slam trophies is not Roger Federer, but Andre Agassi (actually, Roger and Pete have pretty similar match-ups). Consider that of Andre's eight titles, only one is against an all-time great - Sampras. He beat Kafelnikov (2 Slams), Stich and Ivanisevic (1 Slam each), and four players who never won a Slam. That's fully half of his Slam wins against Slamless players, compared to just 10% for Novak, 29% for Rafa, and 24% for Roger.

As another aside, the only 6+ Slam winner of the Open Era to not have at least one trophy at the expense of a Slamless player is Stefan Edberg. Everyone else beat at least one Slamless player.

One more. While Rafa played a large percentage (71, to be exact) of his Slam wins against all-time greats (which I'm defining as players with 6+ Slam titles), he is tied with McEnroe for second. Who is first? Jimmy Connors, whose is at a whopping 88% - or 7 of 8 Slam titles. He defeated Ken Rosewall, Borg, and Lendl twice each and McEnroe once. His lone Slamless victim was Phil Dent.

Actually, there is some correlation between the careers of Jimmy Connors and Roger Federer. Both came into their primes with no clear elite player. When Jimmy stormed onto the scene in the early 70s, the last generation of greats--namely, Rosewall and Laver--were aging, the best prime players being John Newcombe, Arthur Ashe, Ilie Nastase, Stan Smith, and Jan Kodes. Jimmy's best peer was Guillermo Vilas, followed by players like Miguel Orantes, Adrian Panatta, Roscoe Tanner, Brian Gottfried, Harold Solomon, Raul Ramirez, etc. Jim was the year-end #1 from 1974-78, although 1977 probably belongs to Vilas and 1978 to Borg, who was the better player by then.

Jimmy had to face a rising tide of great young players in Borg, then McEnroe, then Lendl, Wilander, and eventually Edberg and Becker. Yet he still managed to hang in there, even winning a few Slams in 1982-83 during McEnroe's reign.

Now compare this to Roger Federer. Fed's generation took center stage starting in 2001 when Lleyton Hewitt was the year-end #1 and Juan Carlos Ferrero and Marat Safin were blossoming. Roger was a bit behind those guys, entering the mix more fully a year or two later. When Roger took the crown in 2004, #2-4 behind him were the other three best of his generation: Roddick, Hewitt, and Safin, with Nalbandian, Guillermo Coria, and Nikolay Davydenko not far behind.

Roger's reign was a bit more dominant than Connors, especially from 2004-07. But like Connors, he faced a wave of great young players in Nadal, then Djokovic and Murray, and also like Connors he was able to remain relevant deep into his 30s.

In a way you could say:
Connors : Borg : McEnroe :: Federer : Nadal : Djokovic

It isn't exact, but there are similarities. The question is, who will be the Lendl-Wilander-Becker-Edberg group that erodes McEnroe's reign?

But I ramble....
 

Kieran

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Excellent stuff, Dude. Bear in mind also, that when Rafa defeated four slamless players (Mariano Puerta, Robin Soderling, Tomas Berdych, and David Ferrer), he had to go throigh Federer in the semis in 2005, and Novak in the semis in 2013: both players were world #1's, and these semi-finals were de facto finals.

One thing in support of Roger is that part of the reason he defeated so many players with 0-2 Slams is that, well, he kept their Slam totals low by defeating them!

Well, this is a chicken and egg thing that could be very easily argued both ways - and has been.

With Agassi, I always felt he was a much better player when he came in under the radar, as it were: when nobody considered him a threat. He won his Wimbledon that way, when he was being written off the first time (after losing his first 3 (?) slam finals, each of which he was favourite to win. Obviously he won the USO in 1994 when Pete was favourite, and he garnered his career slam in 1999 when nobody expected him to. had he served the ban that was his due for taking crystal meths, there's no way Agassi would have morally recovered from that to win the FO. Guy was a flake.

Connors has high and huge stats in everything but he was still the third wheel for a while, when Mac and Bjorn were battering each other. Some say this is because he married a Playboy centrefold, and well, them gals take it outta ya. I'd give this some credence, though obviously I wouldn't know what a Playboy centrefold model looks like. :popcorn

I'd have McEnroe more in Borg's generation than after, but there's definitely also a cusp there. But Mac won 4 of his 7 majors during Bjorn's era, and it's fairly much agreed his game suffered after the Swede retired, due to motivation issues, and wotnot. He did bounce back to win an noncompetitive Wimbledon in'83, then had his great year in '84, but my feeling is that the best of Mac was actually probably 1981, when he faced and defeated Borg quite handily in two slam finals, the year before Connors began to tire of jazz magazines...
 

JesuslookslikeBorg

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Christ. federers opponents wernt easier, Roddick on grass was tough, nadal racked up "easy slams" on clay by beating fed and Djokovic on their weakest surface..if you want to go down that pathetic road.
 

El Dude

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Kieran said:
Excellent stuff, Dude. Bear in mind also, that when Rafa defeated four slamless players (Mariano Puerta, Robin Soderling, Tomas Berdych, and David Ferrer), he had to go throigh Federer in the semis in 2005, and Novak in the semis in 2013: both players were world #1's, and these semi-finals were de facto finals.

Yes, and we can do the same with almost any "easy" Slam final. The point being, winning a Slam is never easy - never a clear road.

I assume you're willing to apply the same logic to Roger, right? :cool:

Kieran said:
Connors has high and huge stats in everything but he was still the third wheel for a while, when Mac and Bjorn were battering each other. Some say this is because he married a Playboy centrefold, and well, them gals take it outta ya. I'd give this some credence, though obviously I wouldn't know what a Playboy centrefold model looks like. :popcorn

There's also age. He was (is) almost four years older than Borg, six and a half years older than McEnroe. By the time Borg and McEnroe were battering each other (1979-81) Connors was already in his late 20s and maybe not quite as good as he had been a couple years before. Hmm...sounds familiar.

Kieran said:
I'd have McEnroe more in Borg's generation than after, but there's definitely also a cusp there. But Mac won 4 of his 7 majors during Bjorn's era, and it's fairly much agreed his game suffered after the Swede retired, due to motivation issues, and wotnot. He did bounce back to win an noncompetitive Wimbledon in'83, then had his great year in '84, but my feeling is that the best of Mac was actually probably 1981, when he faced and defeated Borg quite handily in two slam finals, the year before Connors began to tire of jazz magazines...

Borg and McEnore are definitely contemporaries, but there's almost a three year gap. Also, I'm a bit attached to my "Generation Theory" and I have Borg in the 1954-58 generation and McEnroe in the 1959-63 one.

But yeah, I agree that Mac was at his best when he was taking down Borg. It reminds me a bit of how Rafa is at his best when he's rising to the top, but has a harder time maintaining his reign.
 

Kieran

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You can go that way with any "easy slam final?" Really? Federer beat great players in the semi and not the final? Don't think so, buddy. ;)

My point anyway was, if we look closely at these "easy slams" we still see Rafa had to go through great players at their peak in the semis in two of them, as opposed to having a similarly easy match there too. Nadal didn't get a cosy few years with no fellow greats to hamper him.

Good point on Mac being three years younger. I thought it was less. Mac also was more or less finished as a contender just after Lendl got going. The US Open final in 1985 was the handover point. Yeah, Mac still turned up to play after 1985, but nobody really noticed...
 

JesuslookslikeBorg

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circular logic goes nowhere. which is where your bitter poasts end up.

in the majors Federer should've been a worse player than he was, then some epic close battles would've made other players look better. you really need some new players to support. or find a way to stop peppering the forums with federercentric diss poasts.

and your dribble about easy wins for Djokovic v a "sub-par rafa"..subpar.?..rafa has been on the same level at least since after the frenchopen in june 2014. its not sub-par any more, it's the new normal.
 

Kieran

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An unfortunate "new normal" that's nothing like normal. ;)

Look, no need to get touchy about the players Federer beat to win his slams. Eventually in 2012 he actually beat a great player at their peak to win one (though not in the final.. :snicker )... :popcorn
 

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Kieran said:
It's got to do with age. Of course Federer isn't ageing naturally, it's insane how youthful his reflexes are, and how impressive his stamina and endurance are considering the mileage he has. But even still, Novak is at his best now and Federer is 34. Doesn't matter if they play swingball in Wodger's back garden in front of all the twins, Nole should be hammering him in straights, not struggling and leaving the result in doubt til the end...

His stamina and endurance are not that good (nor should they be as that is the natural part of aging). We've seen Roger clearly fatigue well before 5th sets and he has struggled to recover from long matches for a few years now.

I remember a post a couple years ago talking about how your logic misses the obvious when we discuss Roger on his best surfaces. And that being Roger's best level on grass and fast hard courts was well beyond what Rafa and Nole could produce. So when Roger has climbed down from his peak it is no surprise that he is still one of the best players on fast surfaces. Some would look at his play in the Wimbledon and USO finals and say the guy is actually underachieving seeing as how he's playing nervous and struggling in all the big moments.

Roger has aged naturally...he's much worse at 34 than he was in his mid twenties. The best player we've seen in his 20's is also very likely to be the best player we've seen in his 30's. Interestingly enough it's arguable that he is even the best we've seen in his 30's (Agassi and Connors did better than Roger to date if we are just talking about 30's) so you should actually be happy. Asking for him to become a nobody at 34 was unrealistic, you just got your hopes up with 2013.
 

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Kieran said:
He's getting hammered by an octogenarian, that's a teensy bit disappointing, no? Okay, so the Deathless One is ridiculously, eh, conditioned, but even still, Muzza should be dispatching him in routine straights.

And so should Novak...

This is ridiculous. So I guess we shouldn't even look at the names of the players but rather should go off of their ages. Why even stop with Murray, maybe a 25 year old ranked #100 should be destroying Roger at will too.

You have one reason why Roger should be a worse player than Murray at this point, I got several for you why he shouldn't be. We can start out with talent.
 

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He had more talent than Andy when the H2H was 11-9 in the younger man's favour. Now Murray can barely win a set? Federer is 34, let's say that all the things he's doing are remarkable and leave it at that: the endurance, the reflexes, the stamina. Mileage doesn't affect him. That's...what it is.

Murray should still be dispatching any 34 year old in straights...
 

Front242

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Kieran said:
He had more talent than Andy when the H2H was 11-9 in the younger man's favour. Now Murray can barely win a set? Federer is 34, let's say that all the things he's doing are remarkable and leave it at that: the endurance, the reflexes, the stamina. Mileage doesn't affect him. That's...what it is.

Murray should still be dispatching any 34 year old in straights...

Federer's stamina is not remarkable and this is common knowledge. There's a reason all the fans and even commentators say that to stand a chance against the top guys, he needs to have played relatively little to be fresh to face them and hence the introduction of SABR. Considering the guy holds the record for most slams won, his performance in 5 set matches is incredibly poor and completely contradicts your claim that his stamina is remarkable. He had nothing left in the tank in that 5th set against Murray in Oz. Once he'd gone all out to win the crazy long TB in the 2nd set of Wimbledon this year, it was very evident Roger's level had significantly dropped against Novak in the 3rd and 4th sets.

His reflexes are still excellent for a 34 year old but not like they were in his prime. Part of the reason for his forehand being so pedestrian these days imo is he's a step slower getting in position to hit the ball, especially forehands on the run so his reflexes are great but not like in his prime. And even a drop in 5% at the top is the difference between winning and losing against guys like Novak in best of 5. Most other 34 year olds, yes, Murray should be beating them easier but still not in straight sets. There are many opponents who are tricky like Karlovic who could beat anyone on any day if he serves like a demon and they have a poor day returning. But this is Roger Federer and Murray should not be beating him in straight sets even now. Murray's 2nd serve still plain sucks. All it takes for Roger to beat him is to hold serve and wait for the opportunity to punish his Sara Errani 2nd serve.
 

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Front242 said:
His reflexes are still excellent for a 34 year old but not like they were in his prime. Part of the reason for his forehand being so pedestrian these days imo is he's a step slower getting in position to hit the ball, especially forehands on the run so his reflexes are great but not like in his prime. And even a drop in 5% at the top is the difference between winning and losing against guys like Novak in best of 5. Most other 34 year olds, yes, Murray should be beating them easier but still not in straight sets. There are many opponents who are tricky like Karlovic who could beat anyone on any day if he serves like a demon and they have a poor day returning. But this is Roger Federer and Murray should not be beating him in straight sets even now. Murray's 2nd serve still plain sucks. All it takes for Roger to beat him is to hold serve and wait for the opportunity to punish his Sara Errani 2nd serve.

Well said. Just one more thing; Murray is still a head case when it comes down to it. And Fed is pretty good at finding ways to exploit that.
 

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Kieran said:
He had more talent than Andy when the H2H was 11-9 in the younger man's favour. Now Murray can barely win a set? Federer is 34, let's say that all the things he's doing are remarkable and leave it at that: the endurance, the reflexes, the stamina. Mileage doesn't affect him. That's...what it is.

Murray should still be dispatching any 34 year old in straights...

He HAS more talent than Murray. That H2H was a joke given the difference between the players abilities and it was also misleading...Murray would win the small battles and Roger would steamroll him when it counts. Roger is up something like 14-11 and that is still a much worse record than he should have with Andy. But the same can be said with Roger's record vs. Nole and Rafa regardless of age.

Mileage has clearly affected him. It's not like Roger's anywhere near as quick as he once was, and the stamina is noticeably an issue, he was gassed after just 2 sets of the Wimbledon final this year.

Roger hasn't aged much differently than I figured. He's been on tour a long time so there were going to be years where he did worse than one would expect (2008, 2011, 2013 stand out) and there are many years he did better than expected (his top years, 2009 and 2012 for this).

I know you watch or at least follow other games and it's never a great comparison across sports but think Michael Jordan, Garry Kasparov and others. Their post-prime play was still better than almost anybody (in Jordan's case it WAS better than anybody else). I think a big part of it is you hate Roger so much and have convinced yourself he's just been lucky for 15 years, isn't that good, etc. And it is seriously clouding your judgment. Well I hate to break it to you but if the guy wants to play another 5 years he would probably still be top 10 by the end and he'd still be top 5 for the next few years.
 

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Yeah, when Murray starts babbling away to himself it's time to wrap things up and he gets frustrated against the top guys.

Edit: actually against everyone but he manages to still beat the nobodies even if they win the first 2 sets 'cos they usually can't see things through. But guys like Novak and Roger will exploit any weakness fast.