The Rankings Thread (ATP)

[NADAL2005RG]

I think Vasek Pospisil is a future top 5 player. It wouldn't surprise me if he reaches #1 (but I'll officially predict top 5).

 

[GameSetAndMath]

If Rafa reaches Finals in Paris, he would guarantee for himself the YE #1 ranking
independent of what Djokovic does at Paris and what happens in London and Davis
Cup Finals.

This will happen even if Djokovic wins Paris (1000 points), Sweeps London
undefeated (1500 points) and wins the Davis Cup (add 190 points more) and
Nadal gets 0 points in WTF.

 

[Denis]

With Nole not playing Basel, Nadal will clinch year end no 1 if he gets in 666 points for the last two tournaments of the year as he is 2060 in the lead at the moment. Novak can get a max of 2725 points in three events (WTF, Davis Cup, Paris). Novak needs to make the final in Paris to the very least, but will probably need to win Paris, WTF and the Davis Cup and hope for two early exits by Nadal.

You are wrong GSM. I already did the calculations as you can see above. Novak can get 225 points for Davis Cup. A final will not be enough for Rafa. I am sure Novak will play both rubbers.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

With Nole not playing Basel, Nadal will clinch year end no 1 if he gets in 666 points for the last two tournaments of the year as he is 2060 in the lead at the moment. Novak can get a max of 2725 points in three events (WTF, Davis Cup, Paris). Novak needs to make the final in Paris to the very least, but will probably need to win Paris, WTF and the Davis Cup and hope for two early exits by Nadal.

You are wrong GSM. I already did the calculations as you can see above. Novak can get 225 points for Davis Cup. A final will not be enough for Rafa. I am sure Novak will play both rubbers.

You are right. I stand corrected. A final would not do. Rafa needs to win Paris
outright to guarantee it and I don't think it will happen.

It will be fun if the YE#1 gets determined at the Davis Cup Finals. I don't know
whether it ever came to that. I know it has come to WTF before.

It will be even more fun, if Tipsaravic was requested to throw a match in
DC, so that Djokovic can win a second live rubber. Note that they do not give
the 75 points, if it is not a live rubber match.

 

[NADAL2005RG]

Tips and Jack can do what they want. Nadal is obviously going to the World Tour Finals SF or better.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

I agree that the chances of Nadal not finishing YE #1 is very small; But, it is not
sure and that is what makes it interesting.

 

[Denis]

I agree that the chances of Nadal not finishing YE #1 is very small; But, it is not
sure and that is what makes it interesting.

Yes, it gives a little bite to the end of the year. Too bad it is not tighter, but considering Nadal's indoor record there is still a small chance that Novak takes it.

 

[Front242]

Tips and Jack can do what they want. Nadal is obviously going to the World Tour Finals SF or better.

Bit early to assume that methinks given his indoor record. A lot of top indoor players to potentially deal with.

 

[NADAL2005RG]

Last time Nadal was in this kind of form he made the final of the World Tour Finals (2010), and even took a set from Federer. Actually I think he's even better this year. Plus I think he'll benefit from the absence of Murray (even though Nadal beat Murray at the 2010 World Tour Finals), the potential fatigue of Del Potro/Djokovic, and the appearance of some of Nadal's favorite players like Berdych, Ferrer and Wawrinka. Even in 2011, I was impressed with 2 of Nadal's 3 matches in the RR. Lost that high-quality 3-setter to Tsonga to miss the semis, and had Davis Cup Final on clay just after it.

 

[Denis]

I agree with most of what you said in the post above, but it is certainly not 'obvious' that he will make the SF or better. His record indoor is too poor to make it 'obvious'.

 

[NADAL2005RG]

Well, nothing is obvious to everyone.

 

[Kieran]

It would be a strange season if Rafa doesn't end it #1, maybe the first since 1977 when the best player wasn't ranked top at the end. But it wouldn't be the end of the world. I expect him to take it but I really want him coming out of the season 100% and getting in good prep for Oz...

 

[NADAL2005RG]

Well I like Nadal's Paris draw, so I'm extremely confident he'll wrap up the ranking. According to his history with each player in his half, maybe the JJ match will be the toughest. I think Nadal has an EXTREMELY big edge over Gasquet/Nishikori, Ferrer/Raonic/Berdych, no matter where he play's them. JJ hasn't beaten Nadal, but at least JJ has some potential locked away. Nadal may beat JJ comfortably, but I still think its POTENTIALLY the most interesting match of Nadal's half.

 

[brokenshoelace]

Nadal vs. JJ will in no way be easy.

 

[Front242]

Agreed. Won't be easy as JJ will be very fired up since he's defending a large amount of his points at Paris having made the final last year. He's gotta mix up his serve and not be predictable though. He showed how good he was indoors last year. If he makes the WTF in the future he'll be a really tough opponent. Ferrer I think will lose a fair few points here.

 

[Kieran]

Yeah, JJ is the last guy you want to meet so early on here. I'd fancy Rafa, but he's gonna have to serve well...

 

[Front242]

They both have to serve well really. JJ's serve has bad days and good days. If he has a bad day he's in trouble. If he has a good day serving and Rafa drops serve, Rafa's in trouble. But again, JJ's serving can be erratic at times and he goes for a lot on 2nd serves so he throws in a good few DFs.

 

[Denis]

Nadal needs 306 points more to clinch YE no1. In other words, two more wins.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Nadal needs 306 points more to clinch YE no1. In other words, two more wins.

With Nadal facing his buddy in SF, he will get one more win in Paris even if
he loses the finals.

He will win at least one match in London.

So, it is almost a done deal.

So, Tipsaravic doesn't have to worry about being asked to throw a
match in DC. He can now lose the match naturally without throwing it.

 

[Denis]

Why would Tipsy be asked that? I think they always play 5 matches if one of the two teams asks for it right? Even if they are 3-0 up, I think Serbia can still ask for the other two to be played.