Medvedev could take the No 1 from Djokovic if he wins Wimbledon or loses the Wimbledon final to a player not named Djokovic.
Wow. I had to look up to see if this was actually the case, and I think you're right. Here are my findings:
Djokovic: 12113 current - 2000 for 2019 Wimbledon = 10113 before 2021 points are added
Medvedev: 10280 current - 90 for 2019 Wimbledon = 10190 before 2021 points are added
That's Medvedev up by 77 points to start the tournament, once 2019 Wimbledon is taken off. Which means he can be #1 in any of the following ways:
- Winning Wimbledon
- Losing the final to someone other than Djokovic
- Losing in the same or later round as Djokovic
- Djokovic goes out in the first two rounds
Contrarily, for Novak to remain number one he has to do the following:
- Reach the 3R or later, and
- Go one round further than Medvedev
So if Novak loses in the QF (+360) and Daniil in the 4R (+180), Novak maintains the lead by 103 points.