The Rankings Thread (ATP)

[Jelenafan]

This years rankings for #1 are pretty much a moot point, Novak is 99 % probability of ending YE #1 for a 6th time.

Odds are against Rafa entering and winning a random HC tourney, then winning both Bercy Paris and the YE ATP championships in London, while Novak doesn't add any more points. Novak has already entered Vienna, no doubt to smartly insure his lead increases.

What is uncertain is the battle for YE #2-#4 ranking, which impacts seeding for next years first Major the AO. That should interest more Rafa, Federer and NexGen fans.

Theim conceivably with a strong HC run could overtake Rafa for the #2 spot, especially if Rafa does , as some suspect, shut down his season. Tsitsipas or Medvedev could potentially overtake Federer currently in the #4 spot .

So should still be a very interesting fall/winter slate of events with seeding ramifications for next year.

 

[Moxie]

This years rankings for #1 are pretty much a moot point, Novak is 99 % probability of ending YE #1 for a 6th time.

Odds are against Rafa entering and winning a random HC tourney, then winning both Bercy Paris and the YE ATP championships in London, while Novak doesn't add any more points. Novak has already entered Vienna, no doubt to smartly insure his lead increases.

What is uncertain is the battle for YE #2-#4 ranking, which impacts seeding for next years first Major the AO. That should interest more Rafa, Federer and NexGen fans.

Theim conceivably with a strong HC run could overtake Rafa for the #2 spot, especially if Rafa does , as some suspect, shut down his season. Tsitsipas or Medvedev could potentially overtake Federer currently in the #4 spot .

So should still be a very interesting fall/winter slate of events with seeding ramifications for next year.

I did notice that Thiem has a decent shot at Rafa, and I think he'll aim for it. I'm sure Rafa doesn't care about 1-2 or 3, just what's smart for him to do.

 

[MargaretMcAleer]

Theim is just 725 points behind Rafa at present,knowing Theim he will play every tournament under the sun to pass Rafa.

 

[Moxie]

Theim is just 725 points behind Rafa at present,knowing Theim he will play every tournament under the sun to pass Rafa.

He probably should if he wants to make a statement about his ambition. I have said here before that the glass ceiling in men's tennis rankings hasn't been #1 but #2 since 2005. Every player that has been #2 since then has also been #1, i.e., Federer, Nadal, Djokovic and Murray. That's it...for 15+ years.

 

[rafanoy1992]

For selfish reasons, I actually want Thiem not to pursue the number 2 ranking until after 2021 AO. I do not want Nadal have to face Djokovic in the semifinals of the AO. But if Thiem does overtake Nadal, then more power to him.

I do know that Thiem will rest as much as possible because he does not want a repeat of the RG in which he was mentally fried from the US Open.

 

[Jelenafan]

He probably should if he wants to make a statement about his ambition. I have said here before that the glass ceiling in men's tennis rankings hasn't been #1 but #2 since 2005. Every player that has been #2 since then has also been #1, i.e., Federer, Nadal, Djokovic and Murray. That's it...for 15+ years.

The big problem for Theim is that he's already got points in tourneys he can't add to. Namely Vienna since he won it last year. The ATP London YE he was a finalist last year, so he would have to win the whole darn thing. His best bet is to do well at Paris Indoors Bercy, he lost early last year so winning the finals there would put him over the top vis-a-vis Rafa.

Vienna should be fun , for a 500 event it's loaded. With Federer MIA for the year , 4 out of the top 5 players are going ; Djokovic, Theim, Tsitsipas and Medvedev. Let the fireworks begin!

 

[MargaretMcAleer]

Let us see if Theim has learnt a lesson,to me he has always overplayed tournaments,even when the tour had stopped before the USO he played every exhibition going.He was not just mentally tired at RG also physically.,that was so evident in his match against Diego.
Also to me he never got over the match against Gaston

We have yet to hear if Rafa intends to play any more tournaments this year.

 

[Jelenafan]

For selfish reasons, I actually want Thiem not to pursue the number 2 ranking until after 2021 AO. I do not want Nadal have to face Djokovic in the semifinals of the AO. But if Thiem does overtake Nadal, then more power to him....

At the stratosphere level of Rafa/Novak and Fed if he's healthy , it really boils down at this point in their careers to winning tournaments, I don't think they give a flying fig about being a finalist, semifinalist; especially at the Majors.

Just like at the French Open all roads eventually lead to Rafa, I feel the same thing with the AO, all roads lead through Novak. It's insane he has 8 wins there. I expect if Rafa wins he has to get through inevitably Novak, so whether he gets him at the SF or finals is irrelevant to me.

Draws are a funny thing, Zverev made the finals at the USO without having to play Novak, and Rafa's supposedly tough FO draw was to have to go through Zverev and Theim before the finals and we saw how that ended up.

 

[Moxie]

At the stratosphere level of Rafa/Novak and Fed if he's healthy , it really boils down at this point in their careers to winning tournaments, I don't think they give a flying fig about being a finalist, semifinalist; especially at the Majors.

Just like at the French Open all roads eventually lead to Rafa, I feel the same thing with the AO, all roads lead through Novak. It's insane he has 8 wins there. I expect if Rafa wins he has to get through inevitably Novak, so whether he gets him at the SF or finals is irrelevant to me.

Draws are a funny thing, Zverev made the finals at the USO without having to play Novak, and Rafa's supposedly tough FO draw was to have to go through Zverev and Theim before the finals and we saw how that ended up.

I mostly agree with this, but I think it might not be bad for Rafa get Novak in the SFs, rather than finals at AO, should it happen. (Though you make a very good argument for why it's not so easy for Thiem to get to #2 before the end of the year.) As to a Rafa/Novak SF at AO, it would catch him one round before he's trying to peak for a final, and he would have their most recent meeting at RG in his mind. But you're probably right...it doesn't much matter. The path to a W at AO is all but certainly through Novak.

As to your other point about draws, I wholeheartedly agree. Folks tend to forget that a draw is a possibility, not an inevitability. And when it doesn't shake out as expected, suddenly someone has an "easy draw," even when it looked like a tough one at the outset. It still means you had a tough draw. It just means that it "opened up," as we say.

 

[Fiero425]

At the stratosphere level of Rafa/Novak and Fed if he's healthy , it really boils down at this point in their careers to winning tournaments, I don't think they give a flying fig about being a finalist, semifinalist; esp. at the Majors.

Just like at the French Open all roads eventually lead to Rafa, I feel the same thing with the AO, all roads lead through Novak. It's insane he has 8 wins there. I expect if Rafa wins he has to get through inevitably Novak, so whether he gets him at the SF or finals is irrelevant to me.

Draws are a funny thing, Zverev made the finals at the USO without having to play Novak, and Rafa's supposedly tough FO draw was to have to go through Zverev and Thiem before the finals and we saw how that ended up.

Rafa can always hope Novak is upset "down under;" sorta like Fedovic @ the FO over the years looking for help to push Rafa out the way! Nole's due for a loss early in Australia! He's been almost automatic, but we all know better than that! Even Rafa will go down in flames one of these days in Paris; I'm waiting with bated breath!

 

[Jelenafan]

Rafa can always hope Novak is upset "down under;" sorta like Fedovic @ the FO over the years looking for help to push Rafa out the way! Nole's due for a loss early in Australia! He's been almost automatic, but we all know better than that! Even Rafa will go down in flames one of these days in Paris; I'm waiting with bated breath!

Fiero, If Federer doesn't send annual gifts to Robin Soderling he's an ungrateful bastard.

 

[rafanoy1992]

At the stratosphere level of Rafa/Novak and Fed if he's healthy , it really boils down at this point in their careers to winning tournaments, I don't think they give a flying fig about being a finalist, semifinalist; especially at the Majors.

Just like at the French Open all roads eventually lead to Rafa, I feel the same thing with the AO, all roads lead through Novak. It's insane he has 8 wins there. I expect if Rafa wins he has to get through inevitably Novak, so whether he gets him at the SF or finals is irrelevant to me.

Draws are a funny thing, Zverev made the finals at the USO without having to play Novak, and Rafa's supposedly tough FO draw was to have to go through Zverev and Theim before the finals and we saw how that ended up.

While it is true they might not really care on what seeding are they, the Big Three still prefer a more "favorable" draw. Just look at the 2019 French Open, Djokovic would have definitely preferred to have Thiem on Nadal's side of the draw.

For me, while I agree that Nadal will probably have to go through Djokovic at the AO, Nadal will still prefer to see if Thiem or other players can soften Djokovic before he faces him.

 

[Fiero425]

Fiero, If Federer doesn't send annual gifts to Robin Soderling he's an ungrateful bastard.

I've said that many times in a fashion! Several years ago I thought to write Fed and suggest buying Soderling a nice house back in Sweden for assisting him in getting his lone FO title! Heaven knows he just didn't come close to doing it on his own! It's the one tourney that will set Rafa apart from the other 2!

 

[rafanoy1992]

After looking at the ranking points and scenarios, here are my thoughts on how Thiem can possible overtake Nadal in the rankings.

Because how the rankings play out this year, this is how Thiem has to do to overtake Nadal:

He has to either win Paris Masters straight up OR win World Tour Finals without getting defeated in Round Robin play at all

He does not actually have to win Paris Masters, but he has to at the VERY LEAST reach the semifinals. However, even if he does that, he has to win the World Tour Finals.

 

[rafanoy1992]

After looking at the ranking points and scenarios, here are my thoughts on how Thiem can possible overtake Nadal in the rankings.

Because how the rankings play out this year, this is how Thiem has to do to overtake Nadal:

He has to either win Paris Masters straight up OR win World Tour Finals without getting defeated in Round Robin play at all

He does not actually have to win Paris Masters, but he has to at the VERY LEAST reach the semifinals. However, even if he does that, he has to win the World Tour Finals.

I just looked at the points ranking facts and it looks like I was initially wrong on how the rankings will work for the World Tour Finals (or ATP Finals). According to the rulebook, the points earned from 2019 ATP Finals will be dropped on November 9, 2020. That means if Nadal does not play World Tour Finals in 2020, he will guarantee loses his 400 points earned from last year's tournament. So, it means at the very least, his lead over Thiem for the number 2 ranking will be reduced to 350 points (this is assuming that Thiem does not do better in 2020 Paris Masters).

 

[rafanoy1992]

I just realized this today but Rafael Nadal has now the record for most consecutive weeks in the Top 10 with 789 consecutive weeks and counting. It is probably one of the most underrated records of Nadal's career.

 

[Fiero425]

I just realized this today but Rafael Nadal has now the record for most consecutive weeks in the Top 10 with 789 consecutive weeks and counting. It is probably one of the most underrated records of Nadal's career.

View attachment 4201

Well maybe Rafa will hold onto one or 2 records; obscure records before Novak takes over the major ones in the next couple years or 3!

 

[Fiero425]

I just looked at the points ranking facts and it looks like I was initially wrong on how the rankings will work for the World Tour Finals (or ATP Finals). According to the rulebook, the points earned from 2019 ATP Finals will be dropped on November 9, 2020. That means if Nadal does not play World Tour Finals in 2020, he will guarantee loses his 400 points earned from last year's tournament. So, it means at the very least, his lead over Thiem for the #2 ranking will be reduced to 350 points (this is assuming that Thiem does not do better in 2020 Paris Masters).

That was just you! Everyone else knew! The YEC was the 1 event that wasn't going to hold pts. over from '19! Duh? Why would they?

 

[Bonaca]

Well maybe Rafa will hold onto one or 2 records obscure records before Novak takes over the major ones in the next couple years or 3!

Just one more win and Novak’s 6th YE No1 is secure.
And many weeks at No 1 also raising.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Kieran]

That was just you! Everyone else knew! The YEC was the 1 event that wasn't going to hold pts. over from '19! Duh? Why would they?

Why would any of them? Why would Novak get to keep his points from Paris indoors last year, when he's freely chosen not to play there? Why should Roger keep his points when we knew pre-Covid that he was skipping everything until after Wimbledon? He hadn't entered events but kept the points for them? It makes no sense.

This season is a write-off as far as rankings are concerned. They're a loose approximation, at best. Very loose. Not the ATP's fault, by the way, I'm not criticising them, they didn't cause the virus, but a reasonable view of it might say that no matter how they tried to do it, they got it wrong...