The Rankings Thread (ATP)

[Moxie]

He is the favorite, but he is not massively favored. His chances are only 36%. In other words, the field has better chances than Federer. In other words, some body else winning is more probable than Federer winning.

On the other hand at RG, Rafa's chances were twice that of the field at the beginning of the tourney and when got to the finals, it became 79%.

Let's not kid ourselves. His chances are better than 36%. I don't care what your betting odds say. There are very few people that are even close to as likely to taking it as Roger. I saw that list that you posted elsewhere: Isner? Kyrgios? Querrey? (I forget who else at the moment, but pffft.) Look, Murray's not yet ready, Rafa hasn't had a quality finish at W in years, and Djokovic is still a question mark. Cilic is his mother's lap cat in most big moments. Raonic (oh, that was another one they mentioned) has been injured again recently. Isner and Querrey are not ready for their close-ups, nor will they ever be. Barring upset, or a stellar Wimbledon from Nadal or Djokovic, I don't see who is going to take Roger. All things being equal, I'd give him a 65% chance right now. 50%, if you want to be cautious. I don't know where they get these numbers from: Nadal at 79% chance to win when he'd reached the final? FFS, he was 10-0 in RG finals at that point, and he'd only lost one set in the tournament. Who makes up these numbers? I think you're too enamored of them.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Let's not kid ourselves. His chances are better than 36%. I don't care what your betting odds say. There are very few people that are even close to as likely to taking it as Roger. I saw that list that you posted elsewhere: Isner? Kyrgios? Querrey? (I forget who else at the moment, but pffft.) Look, Murray's not yet ready, Rafa hasn't had a quality finish at W in years, and Djokovic is still a question mark. Cilic is his mother's lap cat in most big moments. Raonic (oh, that was another one they mentioned) has been injured again recently. Isner and Querrey are not ready for their close-ups, nor will they ever be. Barring upset, or a stellar Wimbledon from Nadal or Djokovic, I don't see who is going to take Roger. All things being equal, I'd give him a 65% chance right now. 50%, if you want to be cautious. I don't know where they get these numbers from: Nadal at 79% chance to win when he'd reached the final? FFS, he was 10-0 in RG finals at that point, and he'd only lost one set in the tournament. Who makes up these numbers? I think you're too enamored of them.

If Roger plays like he did in Halle, then there are at least 20 different players who can take him out.

If Roger plays somewhat decent, then here are the folks who can take him out.

1. Cilic (he is really good on grass with powerful serve and good movement)
2. JMDP (he is a big stage player and has pedigree in Wimbledon)
3. Rejuvenated Novak
4. Kyrgios (every set is a TB with this guy, it is a coin toss, he may win more coin tosses, he does not pee in his pants when seeing big four)
5. An odd upset by any number of folks such as Misha, Querry, Isner, Borna, etc. (this is less probable).

 

[DarthFed]

Let's not kid ourselves. His chances are better than 36%. I don't care what your betting odds say. There are very few people that are even close to as likely to taking it as Roger. I saw that list that you posted elsewhere: Isner? Kyrgios? Querrey? (I forget who else at the moment, but pffft.) Look, Murray's not yet ready, Rafa hasn't had a quality finish at W in years, and Djokovic is still a question mark. Cilic is his mother's lap cat in most big moments. Raonic (oh, that was another one they mentioned) has been injured again recently. Isner and Querrey are not ready for their close-ups, nor will they ever be. Barring upset, or a stellar Wimbledon from Nadal or Djokovic, I don't see who is going to take Roger. All things being equal, I'd give him a 65% chance right now. 50%, if you want to be cautious. I don't know where they get these numbers from: Nadal at 79% chance to win when he'd reached the final? FFS, he was 10-0 in RG finals at that point, and he'd only lost one set in the tournament. Who makes up these numbers? I think you're too enamored of them.

This isn't last year when I'd agree his chances were well over 50%. Going back to the last two matches at IW he hasn't looked too good since then and that's putting it mildly. The Fed that played Stuttgart may have a 35% chance, the one that played Halle has absolutely no prayer. My worry after 20 and getting back to #1 is that the motivation level would drop and I think that's what is going on. Roger has the look of someone who spent the last two months eating and drinking whatever he wants and barely working out. If he still has a switch he can flip to start playing well he needs to flip it.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

If Federer wins Wimbledon and Peasant loses at 3rd round or earlier, Federer will be back at #1.

........and in the third round Peasant shall meet Mischa. :demon:

 

[Moxie]

........and in the third round Peasant shall meet Mischa. :demon:

You're not just rude, but you're unoriginal.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

You're not just rude, but you're unoriginal.

Thank you.

 

[Moxie]

Thank you.

You're welcome!

 

[monfed]

If dull loses before R4 and Fed defends Wimbledon he'll become #1. C'mon Mischa you can do it!

 

[Moxie]

If dull loses before R4 and Fed defends Wimbledon he'll become #1. C'mon Mischa you can do it!

Another unoriginal. I think that's been said twice.

 

[Chris Koziarz]

So many "unoriginal" posts... This threat is going on for 5 years already. The longest on this forum! Please help to curtail it by not commenting here unless you have something substantial to say.
I note that fedal #1-2 has been historically unprecedented, regardless which one had an edge over the other. Recently (over last 2 years) Rafa seems to be on top more often although the difference is so negligible that we can simply forget the details and constant swaps and say they've been tied at 1-2.
That situation must finally end. Likely Fed will drop first because of his age and sooner possible drop of form. So who do you think will take over that distinguished position from both of them? Will Joker come back? Sir Andy is an unknown but rather unlikely contestant unless he shows docs really did a miracle with his hip. But those are the big4, whom we are used to. Someone new is long time overdue. Zverev - unlikely with his predictable game. Cilic - cannot play his A game long enough. Others don't even have their game good enough. I'm already getting impatient waiting for some breakthrough in the status quo in ATP ranking. It already happened in WTA: Williams stepped off the top for good now. When do we see the same in ATP? Would it happen say before 2020 Olympics?

 

[herios]

Career high this week:

20. Borna Coric. 21y
23. Damir Dzumhur 26y
47. Maximilian Marterer 23y
56. John Millman 29y
74. Cameron Norrie 22y

 

[GameSetAndMath]

With his win over the new kid in the block, Rafa is now guaranteed to retain his #1 ranking no matter what happens during the rest of Wimbledon tourney. Also, it is highly likely that he will hold on to it at least until the end of USO.

 

[monfed]

With his win over the new kid in the block, Rafa is now guaranteed to retain his #1 ranking no matter what happens during the rest of Wimbledon tourney. Also, it is highly likely that he will hold on to it at least until the end of USO.

Yes tennis is on life support now and the only pulse is Federer. At this rate, the tennis tyrant could get a second consecutive YE#1.

Imagine the horror show, clay vulture biggest #2 of all time equalling Fed with 5 YE#1s.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

The regular ranking situation is water over the bridge. But, take heart Feddies; Not so, with the race ranking situation. If Fed wins Wimbledon and Rafa does NOT reach SF or better, Fed will be #1 in the race rankings with a lead of at least 260 points over Rafa. Once Roger takes a lead over Rafa in the race rankings even by a small amount, attaining YE#1 is simply a matter of matching or outperforming Rafa during the rest of the year. That should not be too hard considering that most of the rest of the year's tourneys will be played on hard courts.

Given that Rafa has not defended any title outside of clay, it is reasonable to assume he won't win USO this year. Also, given that Rafa generally sucks in the Fall Season of indoor court matches and WTF, Fed should be able to enlarge (or at least maintain) his lead over Rafa in the race rankings. If he can do that, another YE#1 will belong to TMF.

This time Fed should fight hard to attain YE #1 (of course, after the USO). This is because, it is a double whammy situation. If Fed becomes YE #1, then Fed will have 6 YE #1s compared to Rafa's 4 YE #1s. On the other hand, if the island boy becomes YE#1, then he will be equaling Fed's count of 5 YE #1s. So, the stakes are high in this fight this year than normal.

 

[Moxie]

Given that Rafa has not defended any title outside of clay, it is reasonable to assume he won't win USO this year. Also, given that Rafa generally sucks in the Fall Season of indoor court matches and WTF, Fed should be able to enlarge (or at least maintain) his lead over Rafa in the race rankings.

I'm not sure that it's reasonable to assume that Rafa won't win the USO this year. You cite as your precedent the fact that he's never defended a title off of clay. But as you know, it's not like he has a mental block, or that there is one reason, but a myriad of reasons. So I think your statement is more based on superstition than likelihood. As you will remember, Nadal didn't defend his 2010 title, but made the final, and lost to a Djokovic who was well in his head at that point. (If Fed fans can use that one to...partially?...excuse some of Roger's losses to Rafa, surely this Rafa fan can use that one, too.) He didn't defend his 2013 title in 2014 due to injury absence. So that doesn't really tell you much about his chances this year, IMO. He's in good health, he'll likely go in ranked #1, and coming off at least one Major this year. I wouldn't dismiss his chances out of hand. I bet those bookies you think so much of won't, either.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Now, even the race ranking #1 is water over the bridge. Currently Rafa's lead over Fed is 1740 in the race. If Rafa wins, semifinals it becomes 2220 and if Rafa wins Wimbledon it becomes 3020, essentially sealing YE#1 right there.

 

[DarthFed]

Roger probably won't even finish top 2. Djoker or one or more of the have-nots will overtake him at this point.

 

[The_Grand_Slam]

Now, even the race ranking #1 is water over the bridge. Currently Rafa's lead over Fed is 1740 in the race. If Rafa wins, semifinals it becomes 2220 and if Rafa wins Wimbledon it becomes 3020, essentially sealing YE#1 right there.

It's all been all downhill since that MP fiasco at IW

Not too confident about his chances for the remaining part of the year

 

[10isfan]

I doubt Fed gets to number 1 again. I do believe his record of being the oldest number 1 will stand the test of time.

 

[monfed]

Can someone please do the math and tell me how can Fed be #1 after USO?