The Fall of Rafael Nadal

[Tennis Fan]

Stan is the same animal as he's always been... it's not like he was competing for tournaments week in week out.... ever. He's unpredictable... Like I said in an earlier post, I didn't expect him to win majors from the the get go... but he can redline when in the mood and can be dangerous. The fact he's won all 9 of his last finals, including a couple this year indicates to me that he isn't washed up... it's the same old Stan - enigmatic, unpredictable, dangerous... but if you're looking for consistency... forget it.

"the same old Stan - enigmatic, unpredictable, dangerous... but if you're looking for consistency... forget it."

Couldn't have put it better myself. Your whole post is spot on.

 

[Tennis Fan]

Murray doesn't beat Nadal at Roland Garros... especially in the cauldron of a semi final or a final, which is what it is likely to be. Don't look to Madrid as a barometer.... despite being a clay court, it doesn't play like RG. Rome would be a better barometer... and you've just seen Nadal run Djoker close.

I agree 100%! Murray has not suddenly become a clay monster. Nadal didn't play anywhere near his level in that match. I didn't take anything away from that match, especially since Nadal had just won Monte-Carlo and Barcelona back-to-back. I was expecting Rafa to pull out of Madrid as he's not a young pup anymore and back-to-back-to-back wins at his age isn't feasible. A semi-final run was a great result, IMO.

Right, Madrid is the clay surface he's won the least on anyway, so it's no big surprise that he lost that match at all.

 

[Tennis Fan]

Based on Rafa's clay form (best since 2014), he's second favorite at Roland Garros. I see him ahead of Murray.

Last year at RG, I had no hope Nadal could beat Novak in the quarters. This year, my hope is similar to 2014 (when I thought Novak would probably win, but gave Rafa a decent chance).

Nadal has a chance at Roland Garros this year. Novak is not as sharp as 2011-2015.

I agree. I think this wasn't a bad loss at all, and he pushed Novak hard. But for some non-clutch hitting at the important points, that much could've gone either way. If they meet in the final I give Rafa a great chance to get the win.

 

[Tennis Fan]

Good synopsys General Postpre... very close to how I see it. Novak will be the favourite, but Nadal will definitely be in the mix. I'd look at it as 65/25/10 in favour of the Serb (65%), Rafa (25%) and the rest of the field (10%) on who I expected to prevail at RG.

I don't think Novak's chances are as high as everyone seems to think. I really don't think he's winning this RG, not this year. I think Rafa has a 51% percent chance of winning.

Mark this post, ya'll.

 

[ClayDeath]

Give Andy some credit.

He is knocking at the door.

I like his chances in Rome if Nishikori can manage to derail Djokovic.

 

[ClayDeath]

I have Andy for RG if Djokovic stumbles there.

 

[DarthFed]

If it comes down to Nole-Rafa in the final I give Rafa a chance just based on the incredible pressure Nole would be under. Nole would still be favorite but Rafa would have a chance. If they play in the QF or SF, Rafa isn't winning. The gist of it is that you don't go from losing 15 straight sets and total domination to winning 3 out of 5. He needed that win mentally yesterday and to maybe dent Nole's confidence, and he didn't even get a set.

 

[ClayDeath]

Rafa wasted 5 set points in the 2nd set.

most likely would have wasted 5 more.

there is no way out without making some very serious sacrifices.


that is the reason why djokovic is taking everything.

 

[ClayDeath]

that being said I think Andy will take the match tomorrow.

Andy in 3.

djokovic is due for a tiny slip up. Andy has to capitalize on his opportunities tomorrow if they present themselves.

andy is getting dominated by Djokovic also but the difference between Rafa and Andy is that he is far more fit and he also has some belief.


Rafa is not fit and has very little belief. that is why Tony said they need to avoid Djokovic.

translation: Andy is better prepared to take advantage of his opportunities should Djokovic stumble just a little bit.


this is why Andy was in last week's final also. he keeps knocking at the door.

 

[britbox]

Give Andy some credit.

He is knocking at the door.

I like his chances in Rome if Nishikori can manage to derail Djokovic.

OK, I probably don't give Andy the credit he deserves. He has been impressive here and has ramped up during the clay swing. After the semis - I'm thinking more along the lines of RG probability being more like Novak 50%, Rafa 30%, Murray 10%, Rest of field 10%. Fed will have one eye on Wimbledon, Thiem isn't quite there yet, Nishikori is physically fragile in best-of-5 grand slam campaigns, Stan is an enigma, Monfils is a loose cannon, Berdych is horrible right now... beyond these guys, anyone else even on the fringes of discussion for a Roland Garros crown?

 

[ClayDeath]

djokovic really has zero rivals.

only way to get him is to ambush him on an off day in a best of 3 sets format.

but he damn near has no off days. may have an off set once every 10 years but he wins 100% of the deciding frames. he wins 100% of the tiebreakers in the deciding frames.


that is what fitness and physicality can do for you. you can keep fighting for hours and hours and ultimately you get your way.

it is said that Borg showed up to do battle for a full day on clay if he had to.

Muster was indefatigable. he could not get tired and fought for every single point.

Rafa was the same way but he had natural VO2max. he had god given abilities. his youth and his hunger and his relentless will allowed him to fight for 6 hours or more on any one given day.

he did not bother to keep up his fitness and his physicality for any number of reasons.


and hence the dramatic and staggering decline in his game.




at any rate I really think Djokovic is going to pull it off:

40-45 masters events and 20+ slams.


he has zero rivals. he has no competition.

and he is still willing to outwork them all.

 

[britbox]

djokovic really has zero rivals.

only way to get him is to ambush him on an off day in a best of 3 sets format.

but he damn near has no off days. may have an off set once every 10 years but he wins 100% of the deciding frames. he wins 100% of the tiebreakers in the deciding frames.


that is what fitness and physicality can do for you. you can keep fighting for hours and hours and ultimately you get your way.

it is said that Borg showed up to do battle for a full day on clay if he had to.

Muster was indefatigable. he could not get tired and fought for every single point.

Rafa was the same way but he had natural VO2max. he had god given abilities. his youth and his hunger and his relentless will allowed him to fight for 6 hours or more on any one given day.

he did not bother to keep up his fitness and his physicality for any number of reasons.


and hence the dramatic and staggering decline in his game.




at any rate I really think Djokovic is going to pull it off:

40-45 masters events and 20+ slams.


he has zero rivals. he has no competition.

and he is still willing to outwork them all.

On paper, last year's Roland Garros campaign was an easier task for him. Nadal and Murray are all playing better tennis than at the same stage last year. The youngsters are breaking through and some of the other non-elite top players like Nish are showing far more consistency this year. The field is stronger this year than last and yet he walked away empty handed. He's favourite but this won't be a cakewalk as Stan demonstrated last year.

 

[ClayDeath]

On paper, last year's Roland Garros campaign was an easier task for him. Nadal and Murray are all playing better tennis than at the same stage last year. The youngsters are breaking through and some of the other non-elite top players like Nish are showing far more consistency this year. The field is stronger this year than last and yet he walked away empty handed. He's favourite but this won't be a cakewalk as Stan demonstrated last year.

you just cant get Stan out of your head.


does Edberg reside in your head also?

what about Sampras? he had a single handed backhand also.



ha ha ha ha ha ha. that is an ok post general but this djokovic is also not the djokovic you saw last year.


you have got to stop living in the past. this djokovic is twice as good as the one from last hear. and now he has shown up with new goals: he wants to pass both rafa and roger in the slams haul.


only one man can stop him and he has no desire to do so otherwise he would give up on his billion other outside activities for a few bloody months.

rafa just bought a multimillion dollar yacht.


I don't have the same confidence in Rafa that you have.


nishikori is a midget and that will hold him back. he does not have the benefit of leverage like djokovic has. he is also fairly fragile.

that leaves us with Andy. but he has lost 13 of last 14 matches against djokovic.


he has a small chance tomorrow but that is all it is. just a small chance.

but at least Andy is working hard on his fitness and doing physical work in the gym. he can stay out there and fight for a while against djokovic and see what develops.



this year's djokovic is simply better than the one from last year. I think he takes the next 7 slams.

 

[Moxie]

On paper, last year's Roland Garros campaign was an easier task for him. Nadal and Murray are all playing better tennis than at the same stage last year. The youngsters are breaking through and some of the other non-elite top players like Nish are showing far more consistency this year. The field is stronger this year than last and yet he walked away empty handed. He's favourite but this won't be a cakewalk as Stan demonstrated last year.

I agree with this. Novak is still the top of the game, by a lot, but last year he was the favorite at RG. Nadal was in a slump. Novak snagged him, finally, and then Wawrinka got Nole. This year has a lot more landlines: Nadal is back, to some extent; Thiem and Krygios will ruin someones day; Zverev is in there. There's a lot more going on this year then there was last year.

 

[ClayDeath]

yes there is a lot more going on this year. what the hell are you smoking moxie? or are you just in church asking for miracles?

djokovic takes everything and rest the world just lives in terror.

he takes your wives, your children, and even your pets.

djokovic has 100% of the big titles and the rest of the world has exactly zero big titles.



seems to me that all the evidence is against you.


once again just in case you are living under the rock:

djokovic: 100% of the big titles so far this year

rest of the world: exactly zero big titles



talk to me when that changes.

 

[DarthFed]

On paper, last year's Roland Garros campaign was an easier task for him. Nadal and Murray are all playing better tennis than at the same stage last year. The youngsters are breaking through and some of the other non-elite top players like Nish are showing far more consistency this year. The field is stronger this year than last and yet he walked away empty handed. He's favourite but this won't be a cakewalk as Stan demonstrated last year.

I will withhold judgement until I see the draw. What you said is true about Rafa and Murray but the fact of the matter is he played them all last year. His draw could be something like Berd in the QF and Fed in the semi with Rafa or Murray in the final. Or it could be Nishikori QF, Rafa SF, and Murray Final. Just wait and see at this point.

 

[Billie]

I will withhold judgement until I see the draw. What you said is true about Rafa and Murray but the fact of the matter is he played them all last year. His draw could be something like Berd in the QF and Fed in the semi with Rafa or Murray in the final. Or it could be Nishikori QF, Rafa SF, and Murray Final. Just wait and see at this point.

Me too. The draw will be really important. I think that last year's qf vs Rafa was a mental obstacle and relief that he finally beat him at RG and then physical battle with Andy in the semi final. People forget that he had to come back on Saturday and finish the match in 4 sets, but Andy made him play extra set, for over an hour, leaving Nole without full day of rest. As good as Wawrinka played, Nole did win the 1st set while he still had legs to compete against him, but as the match wore on, Nole started to fade more and Wawrinka gained more confidence. Nole is not a machine and he also feels pressure and gets tired in matches.

 

[Ricardo]

Me too. The draw will be really important. I think that last year's qf vs Rafa was a mental obstacle and relief that he finally beat him at RG and then physical battle with Andy in the semi final. People forget that he had to come back on Saturday and finish the match in 4 sets, but Andy made him play extra set, for over an hour, leaving Nole without full day of rest. As good as Wawrinka played, Nole did win the 1st set while he still had legs to compete against him, but as the match wore on, Nole started to fade more and Wawrinka gained more confidence. Nole is not a machine and he also feels pressure and gets tired in matches.

oh ok, so it was Novak not being fresh. He can't be beaten unless he is tired, injured or someone threw a banana at him.

of course you'll never see or admit that, Novak's problem is that his game is based on grinding it out. Offensive players who execute well on the day will beat him, it's not on his racquet. There is a reason why Stan has taken him the distance or beaten him in 4 or 5 straight slam matches, he would hit through Novak one way or another.

 

[ClayDeath]

folks right now as it stands I think you are going to get a murray vs djokovic final at RG.

rafa has to go work if he wants to get in on the party.

 

[ClayDeath]

Andy to Rafa:

"watch and learn old sport".