Rogers Cup, Montreal, Canada, ATP Masters

[El Dude]

Yes, you where right on, and I was wrong, doubting Denis. But many times you have been too optimistic about the young guns, because you tend to extrapolate a straight progression, which is rarely the case.
Denis has to continue improving, because he did that since last year when I saw him at Rogers Cup.

True, true. I extrapolate based upon historical precedents, which are generally true "most" of the time but have to be adjusted for the individual player and context. The extrapolations aren't as much predictions as a way to give us something to look at as a baseline. If I remember correctly, I adjusted upward a bit (quicker progression) because I suspected he would advance quickly. I don't feel like I know his game well enough to really have a sense of how fast he'll progress from here, but I think he can move to the 30-50ish range relatively quickly. He showed a lot of game and tenacity against Rafa and confidence quickens development, but I also see a lot of inconsistency, which will likely take a year or two to iron out.

I've been dabbling with the idea of making some kind of "hot prospect" list or formula, which is based upon a combination of age and ranking, as well as recent results. The idea being to create a list of how good a player will become--based upon those factors--and how likely they will reach that level. In other words, it isn't upside OR ranking OR performance, but a combination of all three. My sense is that Shapo would be #2 on that list behind Zverev. Maybe something like this:
1. Zverev
2. Shapo
3. Aliassime*
4. Rublev
5. Tiafoe
6. Khachanov, Ruud, etc

*FAA may have the highest upside of all, but we need to see more ATP tour results before getting too excited. Another very young player to watch is Nicola Kuhn.

 

[mrzz]

I was one of the folks saying Shapo could reach the top 100 this year

Yep, just after I posted the above I thought "I guess in fact it was El Dude". Sorry for that.

 

[Murat Baslamisli]

Agut is a steady, consistent player...I hope Roger does not have another three setter. Win or lose on your own terms but make it quick Rodge !

 

[herios]

True, true. I extrapolate based upon historical precedents, which are generally true "most" of the time but have to be adjusted for the individual player and context. The extrapolations aren't as much predictions as a way to give us something to look at as a baseline. If I remember correctly, I adjusted upward a bit (quicker progression) because I suspected he would advance quickly. I don't feel like I know his game well enough to really have a sense of how fast he'll progress from here, but I think he can move to the 30-50ish range relatively quickly. He showed a lot of game and tenacity against Rafa and confidence quickens development, but I also see a lot of inconsistency, which will likely take a year or two to iron out.

I've been dabbling with the idea of making some kind of "hot prospect" list or formula, which is based upon a combination of age and ranking, as well as recent results. The idea being to create a list of how good a player will become--based upon those factors--and how likely they will reach that level. In other words, it isn't upside OR ranking OR performance, but a combination of all three. My sense is that Shapo would be #2 on that list behind Zverev. Maybe something like this:
1. Zverev
2. Shapo
3. Aliassime*
4. Rublev
5. Tiafoe
6. Khachanov, Ruud, etc

*FAA may have the highest upside of all, but we need to see more ATP tour results before getting too excited. Another very young player to watch is Nicola Kuhn.

I am rather waiting out to see how things are unfolding than to get into all complicated analysis. I know they are fun for you and others who like to play with them.
Many unknown parameters can happen , all kind of setbacks, and some just plainly will disappoint. Two years ago for example there were 4 teenagers breaking through into the mid top 100: Coric, Chung, Kokkinakis and Zverev.
Only Zverev proved in the end to become the big player everyone was hoping for, the other 3 did not, for one reason or another.
That is only a 25% conversion and that is really disappointing.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Only 2 seeds, not 3

RBA is seed too (apart from Sasha and Fed).

 

[mrzz]

I am rather waiting out to see how things are unfolding than to get into all complicated analysis. I know they are fun for you and others who like to play with them.
Many unknown parameters can happen , all kind of setbacks, and some just plainly will disappoint. Two years ago for example there were 4 teenagers breaking through into the mid top 100: Coric, Chung, Kokkinakis and Zverev.
Only Zverev proved in the end to become the big player everyone was hoping for, the other 3 did not, for one reason or another.
That is only a 25% conversion and that is really disappointing.

I guess Kokkinakis will bounce back from injuries -- actually I think he will do it quick enough to run for a place in the NextGen finals. As for Shapovalov, it is hard to predict. From what I have seen yesterday he has one of the most risky styles of play out there. It could prove to be a bad choice for life inside the top 100/50.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Fed playing much better than yesterday on his own service games. Holding easily.

But, unable to make inroads into RBA's service games. RBA is also holding easily by and large.

On serve 4-3 to RBA now.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Fed breaks in the 9th game (RBA DF's on BP) and then holds for a crisp 6-4 first set win.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Fed breaks in the opening game of second set. This should be over in 20 more mins. now.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Fed makes a quick work of RBA. 6-4, 6-4 in 68 minutes. Could not do it in under an hour as he allowed himself to be broken once in the second set.

Played much better than the C game of yesterday. But, not in TMF mode, although it is not needed for these kind of opponents.
Can be called a B- game today. But, first serve % needs to improve drastically. He is still at around 52% or so.

Next up Robin Hasse. I guess Fed's D game should suffice to win against him.

 

[DarthFed]

Saw the last half of both sets. Roger was hitting pretty well but serving like crap. Must have been quite a bit better overall than his performance yesterday because Ferrer is basically a worse/older version of RBA at this point.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Meanwhile Cilic announces that he is withdrawing from Cincy as well, following on the footsteps of Andy. Just like Andy, he claims he will be ready for USO though.

 

[DarthFed]

Also those courts look very fast, surprised Fed hasn't done well in Montreal before.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Rafa calls his loss to Shapalov the worst loss of this year . As long as Rafa feels the need to stand 20 feet behind baseline to return serve (are his reflexes waning, why does he stand so far behind), he has no chance of winning on non-clay surfaces against big servers cum hitters.

 

[Murat Baslamisli]

Also those courts look very fast, surprised Fed hasn't done well in Montreal before.

The Canadian dude he beat in the first round, Polansky, he was saying the courts are much slower than the last years...and he just lost against Roger ! Montreal has always been one of the slower hard courts out there. I wish it was like Cincy.

 

[DarthFed]

Interesting, looked pretty quick to me but sometimes tough to tell on TV of course.

 

[DarthFed]

Rafa calls his loss to Shapalov the worst loss of this year . As long as Rafa feels the need to stand 20 feet behind baseline to return serve (are his reflexes waning, why does he stand so far behind), he has no chance of winning on non-clay surfaces against big servers cum hitters.

Cum hitters? I don't think anyone stands a chance against them

 

[atttomole]

The surface looks slow to me, but the bounce looks low. I noticed that players are struggling with low bouncing balls.

 

[herios]

Agut is a steady, consistent player...I hope Roger does not have another three setter. Win or lose on your own terms but make it quick Rodge !

I forgot that RBA was seeded

 

[herios]

I guess Kokkinakis will bounce back from injuries -- actually I think he will do it quick enough to run for a place in the NextGen finals. As for Shapovalov, it is hard to predict. From what I have seen yesterday he has one of the most risky styles of play out there. It could prove to be a bad choice for life inside the top 100/50.

Kokkinakis had a few god wins lately, but I am not sure he will be constantly good or fit.