NA Hard Season - General Discussion

[GameSetAndMath]

Toronto gave the wildcards to Andy Murray, FAA, Popsicle and Polansky. Andy has now withdrawn from Toronoto. They did not give Stan a WC. However, they gave Stan a wild card in to the qualifying tourney there. The quals start Saturday at 11 a.m. So, they can still give the vacated wild card to Stan, if they choose and give the quals wildcard to someone else.

In the meantime, Cincy has announced their wild cards: Andy Murray, Stan Wawrinka, Tiafoe and Donaldson.

 

[The_Grand_Slam]

However, they gave Stan a wild card in to the qualifying tourney there. The quals start Saturday at 11 a.m. So, they can still give the vacated wild card to Stan,

They gave him the WC for main draw
he's playing kyrgios in the 1R

 

[isabelle]

great for Stanimal, he has a tricky opponent in 1st round nevertheless

 

[monfed]

You're not a man, you're a troll. You've never met a contradiction that you couldn't counter with idiocy. And now ice cream.

HAH

 

[monfed]

dull got another joke draw.

 

[The_Grand_Slam]

dull got another joke draw.

Vehemently disagree
his draw is tougher than djokovic for instance despite the 1R bye

 

[herios]

dull got another joke draw.

For you, dull has always an easy draw.

 

[The_Grand_Slam]

For you, dull has always an easy draw.

Tbf it has been a much more frequent occurrence compared to the other top guys

 

[monfed]

For you, dull has always an easy draw.

faker's draw is easier but that's not really saying much.

 

[herios]

faker's draw is easier but that's not really saying much.

Novak has to play one more match, so it evens out.

 

[Moxie]

Tbf it has been a much more frequent occurrence compared to the other top guys

I think you're only remembering the past couple of seasons. I know that fans see things their own way, but I definitely remember periods of time when I felt that Rafa too much more often got the rougher road than Roger. I'm pretty certain it evens out.

 

[Moxie]

Novak has to play one more match, so it evens out.

I actually don't think Djokovic has the easier draw of the two. Thiem, Tsitsipas and Sasha are in his quarter. He may not get out of the quarter. However, the SF opponent in the bottom half should be the easier. In Rafa's quarter, if either Nick or Stan were at all healthy, I'd say that would be a tougher quarter. Who knows who'll win the opener between them, but I don't think either goes any deeper, or much. But the SF opponent in the top half will be tougher.

 

[Michael;Kiwi]

dull got another joke draw.

In terms of 5-8 the options were:
Thiem- can't play on hard court
Cilic- the one he got who is a quite dangerous fast court player and not good for Nadal
Dimitrov-playing terribly right now
Isner- Servebot who could be dangerous for Nadal
You could argue Isner was more dangerous, but I think Cilic was the worst possible draw for Nadal. Either way got one of the worst two out of four.
In terms of 3-4
Del Potro or Anderson
He clearly got the harder path here
In terms of 9-12 the options were:
Djokovic
Schwartzman
Carreno Busta
Goffin
He lucked out on this section, but the other two sections more than even it out. Schwartzman is not a terrible player as evidenced by the French Open and in terms of form you could say is close to Goffin and ahead of Carreno Busta.

In terms of 13-16
Kyrgios
Fognini
Sock
Bautista Agut
Sock and Bautista Agut are not playing well. Especially Sock. The choice comes down to Fognini or Kyrgios. Both could be dangerous to Nadal. Fog mini is probably the more dangerous one because he hasn't had any injuries, but second toughest out of four is not easy.

Tough Non-Seeded Players:
Nadal: Wawrinka, Edmund, Querrey, Coric
Del Potro: Nishikori, Shapovalov, Khachanov
Anderson: Rublev, Raonic, Tiafoe, Cecchinato
Zverev/Djokovic: Tsitsipas, Chung, Pouille, FAA

All look about equal to me. Del Potro's might be slightly tougher.
However, the broader point should be that these draws even out over time and I don't believe that any player has significantly benefitted more than any other. They are not rigged.
-Federer Fan

 

[Moxie]

@Michael;Kiwi - please keep posting! We need more level-headed people around here.

 

[Moxie]

To me, the problem with reading the draw is that the players who should be dangerous are injured or on the come-back, or not playing well at the moment. I say this as one who tried to work through the draw challenge. There are lots of question marks in this draw. And there are certain to be surprises.

 

[Michael;Kiwi]

@Michael;Kiwi - please keep posting! We need more level-headed people around here.

Thanks, I will.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

I for one am a true believer that the draws in tennis tourneys operate based on a sound procedure and are not a scam. As such, while it is fun for us to discuss who has tough draw and who has easier draw, I fully believe that there is no conspiracy out there to promote or protect or give a favorable treatment to any particular player.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

After the week of Washington DC in which we saw Sasha defending title, Murray's hips holding (instead of Murray holding them ), let us take a look at the odds again.

1. Novak 11/4 (27%)
2. Federer 4 ( 20%)
3. Rafa 9/2 (18%)
4. Sasha / JMDP 12 (8%)
6. Andy 16 (6%)
7. Cilic 22 (4.3%)
8. Nick 25 (3.8%)
9. Raonic / Stan 33 (3%)
11. Nishikori 35 (2.7%)
12. Thiem 40 (2.5%)
13. Anderson / Grigor 50 (2%)

Next in line are Shapo, followed by Isner and lastly we have a three way tie between Chung, Goffin and Coric with a 1% chance each.

Important changes / observations:

a. Thiem got demoted due to home town loss.
b. Despite winning three 3-set matches, Andy got bumped down a notch probably as he was forced to quit in the middle.
c. Raonic got into the spot vacated by Thiem.
d. Novak's odds slightly improved.
e. Other than that not much changes.
f. Expect significant changes in the next two updates as the two Masters tourneys will play a huge role.

 

[Moxie]

Are those the odds for the USO, or what?

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Are those the odds for the USO, or what?

Yes. Should be easy to figure out even for you as Fed appears in the list and so it cannot be for Toronto.