NA Hard Season - General Discussion

[GameSetAndMath]

OK. I did some checking around and found out that they got rid of the "Bonus Prize Money Challenge" feature of the US Open Series beginning in 2017 (recall that they had a point system based on which they determine the top three folks of US Open Series events and they get some extra money depending on how far they go in the actual USO; In particular, if the US Open Series winner wins the USO, they were getting an extra million bucks). But, they still use the name US Open Series for a selected set of tourneys from the NA hard court season. This is mostly about getting leverage in telecast negotiations.

 

[Moxie]

i would wait for another tourney before putting nole as a top contender for USO. i think as of now rafa should be the fav to win USO with nole second and fed third. fed should be the most vulnerable imo.

Fair point. Don't let GSM get to you with his odds. I still go with the opinions.

 

[monfed]

fraud should quit tennis if he doesn't win Cincy and tennis should be cancelled if dull wins it

 

[DarthFed]

i would wait for another tourney before putting nole as a top contender for USO. i think as of now rafa should be the fav to win USO with nole second and fed third. fed should be the most vulnerable imo.

I'd have him and Nadal neck and neck. I still think Djoker is more prone to upset but if they meet at the USO it'd probably be edge to Novak as he'd be growing in confidence. Federer is the wild card going into it. I don't think either Rafa or Nole would want to see him at this point but the last few events have shown he can lose to anyone against all odds. If you are capable of losing to an underwhelming Anderson from MP and two sets up he could be bounced in the first round for all we know.

 

[herios]

OK. Let us see what are the current odds after the first week is over which had the incidents of Isner winning, Fed withdrawing from Toronto and Andy deciding to triple down on prep for USO.

1. Novak 58/19 (25%)
2. Federer 4 (20%)
3. Rafa 9/2 (18%)
4. Murray / JMDP / Sasha 12 (8%)
7. Cilic 22 (4.3%)
8. Kyrgios 25 (4%)
9. Thiem / Stan 33 (3%)

Next up in the line are Kei, Grigor, Anderson, Shapo and Isner, in that order. All of them have greater than 1% chance.

p.s. There is really not much movement compared to preseason odds.

Some of the odds make no sense. You have to be out of your mind to give better odds to Thiem than Anderson

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Some of the odds make no sense. You have to be out of your mind to give better odds to Thiem than Anderson

Yes, I agree with you. But, I am just reporting the numbers and I am not making them up.

 

[herios]

Yes, I agree with you. But, I am just reporting the numbers and I am not making them up.

I know you are just the messenger.
I would also give better and not equal odds to Delpo than Murray and Sasha.
Sasha is usually flopping in slams, and USO had been his worse slam to date, and Andy is unproven at this point.
Not to speak about the fact that Andy will be unseeded at the USO.

 

[Moxie]

fraud should quit tennis if he doesn't win Cincy and tennis should be cancelled if dull wins it

Actually, Nadal won Cincy in 2013 and tennis didn't collapse from the ignominy.

 

[Moxie]

I'd have him and Nadal neck and neck. I still think Djoker is more prone to upset but if they meet at the USO it'd probably be edge to Novak as he'd be growing in confidence. Federer is the wild card going into it. I don't think either Rafa or Nole would want to see him at this point but the last few events have shown he can lose to anyone against all odds. If you are capable of losing to an underwhelming Anderson from MP and two sets up he could be bounced in the first round for all we know.

Nadal has the H2H v Djokovic at the USO. I know that he just lost to Novak at Wimbledon, but the roof will likely be open, and history doesn't favor Novak, even when he was in good form and confident. As to Federer, I agree: could go out at any round.

 

[DarthFed]

Nadal has the H2H v Djokovic at the USO. I know that he just lost to Novak at Wimbledon, but the roof will likely be open, and history doesn't favor Novak, even when he was in good form and confident. As to Federer, I agree: could go out at any round.

It's 1-1 since 2011 and in 2013 Nadal had the huge mental edge and was playing his best hard court tennis ever. Any good form from Novak and he'd be firm favorite over Nadal and anyone not named Roger at USO. His C game just beat Nadal at Wimbledon (if we are judging Nole at his pre-2017 level). As to Roger, we will see how bad he wants it. Figure out the mental issues and no reason he can't take home #6. God knows it is long overdue.

 

[Moxie]

It's 1-1 since 2011 and in 2013 Nadal had the huge mental edge and was playing his best hard court tennis ever. Any good form from Novak and he'd be firm favorite over Nadal and anyone not named Roger at USO. His C game just beat Nadal at Wimbledon (if we are judging Nole at his pre-2017 level). As to Roger, we will see how bad he wants it. Figure out the mental issues and no reason he can't take home #6. God knows it is long overdue.

I'm not saying Rafa should be the favorite, but it IS worth looking at their history at the USO. You want to exclude 2010. (Not sure why.) And yes, Nadal had a lot of edge in 2013, but it wasn't like it was a weak Djokovic. Not sure where you give him HUGE mental edge there. And 2010 wasn't a weak Djokovic, either. This iteration of Djokovic is much more of an unknown. I'm just saying that Nadal has pegged Djokovic at the USO, and those were pretty good iterations of Djoker. This one is much less certain. I wouldn't give him the edge.

 

[DarthFed]

I'm not saying Rafa should be the favorite, but it IS worth looking at their history at the USO. You want to exclude 2010. (Not sure why.) And yes, Nadal had a lot of edge in 2013, but it wasn't like it was a weak Djokovic. Not sure where you give him HUGE mental edge there. And 2010 wasn't a weak Djokovic, either. This iteration of Djokovic is much more of an unknown. I'm just saying that Nadal has pegged Djokovic at the USO, and those were pretty good iterations of Djoker. This one is much less certain. I wouldn't give him the edge.

Djokovic was awful in 2010. There was a thread going on that year, even after USO, on whether he'd win another major. His stock had been dropping for the past two years so yea, I wouldn't put much into that. Certainly the last 2 meetings are more telling. If Djokovic has strong lead ups and plays Nadal in the semis or finals then he is clearly back at a good level. I do agree that he could easily crash out early again, I am interested in seeing how he responds to suddenly winning a major out of nowhere.

 

[Moxie]

Djokovic was awful in 2010. There was a thread going on that year, even after USO, on whether he'd win another major. His stock had been dropping for the past two years so yea, I wouldn't put much into that. Certainly the last 2 meetings are more telling. If Djokovic has strong lead ups and plays Nadal in the semis or finals then he is clearly back at a good level. I do agree that he could easily crash out early again, I am interested in seeing how he responds to suddenly winning a major out of nowhere.

Djokovic was awful in 2010? Yes, early on, crappy serve, etc. But he beat Roger, didn't he? He was also coming up to his 2011 prowess. That didn't come out of nowhere. Unless you think it did.

 

[DarthFed]

Djokovic was awful in 2010? Yes, early on, crappy serve, etc. But he beat Roger, didn't he? He was also coming up to his 2011 prowess. That didn't come out of nowhere. Unless you think it did.

Yes he beat Roger just like Berdych and Soderling did at majors the months before. Roger was horrible after AO, everyone knows that. Djoker at 2010 USO had more double faults than aces. That SF with Roger...someone had to win.

 

[Moxie]

Yes he beat Roger just like Berdych and Soderling did at majors the months before. Roger was horrible after AO, everyone knows that. Djoker at 2010 USO had more double faults than aces. That SF with Roger...someone had to win.

So what you're saying is that Rafa would have beaten a make-weight, whichever it was between Djokovic and Federer in 2010 Final. Hardly worth mentioning the competition. Wow...you are working hard to pretend that Nadal got that one as a gift. Either one was the best competitor on offer, though, right?

 

[DarthFed]

So what you're saying is that Rafa would have beaten a make-weight, whichever it was between Djokovic and Federer in 2010 Final. Hardly worth mentioning the competition. Wow...you are working hard to pretend that Nadal got that one as a gift. Either one was the best competitor on offer, though, right?

He would've destroyed either of them because neither were at any kind of a high level that year but Nadal was outstanding at that USO. But yeah 2010 was an incredibly weak year competition-wise especially since you like to call 2004-2007 a gift.

 

[The_Grand_Slam]

Djokovic was awful in 2010? Yes, early on, crappy serve, etc. But he beat Roger, didn't he? He was also coming up to his 2011 prowess. That didn't come out of nowhere. Unless you think it did.

2010 is his worst year between 2007-2016.
No masters title(no final),4-8 against top 10.

 

[DarthFed]

2010 is his worst year between 2007-2016.
No masters title(no final),4-8 against top 10.

I didn't know it was THAT bad. I do remember there was real chatter on the board regarding whether Murray would eclipse Nole as the 3rd wheel and/or would end up having the better career. I think @Moxie is forgetting that it was really Davis Cup final in 2010 that seemed to be the turnaround point. 2010 USO not so much, he looked bad that whole tournament but Roger outslopped him in that semi. The stats of that match were pretty atrocious if I remember correctly.

 

[Moxie]

He would've destroyed either of them because neither were at any kind of a high level that year but Nadal was outstanding at that USO. But yeah 2010 was an incredibly weak year competition-wise especially since you like to call 2004-2007 a gift.

I've never said that 2004-07 was "a gift." I've asked you not to put words in my mouth or confuse me with other people.

I didn't know it was THAT bad. I do remember there was real chatter on the board regarding whether Murray would eclipse Nole as the 3rd wheel and/or would end up having the better career. I think @Moxie is forgetting that it was really Davis Cup final in 2010 that seemed to be the turnaround point. 2010 USO not so much, he looked bad that whole tournament but Roger outslopped him in that semi. The stats of that match were pretty atrocious if I remember correctly.

I have said many times that Nadal surely saw the 2010 USO for the opportunity that it was. That was the spring of the dreaded Todd Martin effect on the Djokovic serve. Murray wasn't doing especially well and Roger lost in QFs of RG and W, earliest losses in Majors in like 6 years. Plus, JMDP wasn't going to defend USO. However, he was going to meet either Roger or Novak in that final, and just because they weren't having their best years, they were #2 and #3 in the world. In any case, I'm well aware that he got a big confidence boost from a) beating Roger at that USO and then, b) winning DC. You may have forgotten, but I basically developed the theory of the Davis Cup bump (for Verdasco '08-'09,) so I was well-aware that it happened to Djokovic, too.

 

[DarthFed]

I've never said that 2004-07 was "a gift." I've asked you not to put words in my mouth or confuse me with other people.



I have said many times that Nadal surely saw the 2010 USO for the opportunity that it was. That was the spring of the dreaded Todd Martin effect on the Djokovic serve. Murray wasn't doing especially well and Roger lost in QFs of RG and W, earliest losses in Majors in like 6 years. Plus, JMDP wasn't going to defend USO. However, he was going to meet either Roger or Novak in that final, and just because they weren't having their best years, they were #2 and #3 in the world. In any case, I'm well aware that he got a big confidence boost from a) beating Roger at that USO and then, b) winning DC. You may have forgotten, but I basically developed the theory of the Davis Cup bump (for Verdasco '08-'09,) so I was well-aware that it happened to Djokovic, too.

Novak still was weak to finish 2010 but helping Serbia win Davis Cup seemed to inspire him and obviously he figured out his fitness issues (that was probably the biggest thing, moreso than Davis Cup).

And you've complained multiple times that Roger and Djokovic have had periods of no competition while poor Walphy has had it tough all the time. Pretty laughable when you consider 2010 as well as 2017-2018. No competition = a gift, right?