Fedal - XXXVII - Miami Finals

[Kieran]

The better player won..just plain and simple..I don't think Roger was forced to slice the backhand not one time.. too easy for Roger.. Man I feel bad for Nadal.. what an extremely crushing blow for him and his team..this shall too shall pass

From Roger's perspective, he took a long break and he knocked ten years off his age. I hope this isn't a trend we'll see.

For Rafa, I wouldn't see this as crushing. I haven't been watching much tennis, my ol;d lad isn't well, but in general up til the Big Matches, Rafa is actually playing great tennis. He just isn't holding himself together too well once there's something big at stake, and he's been like that since 2014. He gets anxious, he hurries the shots, he blows big chances. Even still, facing FUBAR-Fed, it's been an unlucky time for him, but I think that he could be prone to lapses against anyone, in a big final. Even last year, his only victory of note was in Monte Carlo, and he struggled there in the final to beat Le Monf, which is not really something he used to do.

Put it this way - if he'd faced Monfils in the semis of MC last year, he'd have destroyed him.

I saw this happen with a lot of players as they age, they become tentative, and big finals become too much for them. They weary easier, and physically they drain quicker, through anxiety, etc. The big matches aren't gonna be there forever for them, so they begin to fluff their lines. I'm proud of him so far this season though...

I think the majority of Nadal's problem is simply that he's not a natural all-surface player. Other surfaces have always been a bigger struggle for him.

Ans as far as the ease of his wins before the final? Well, come on, look who he's playing. When it comes to the finals of these big events the last few years he's playing guys who are better form than he is - Djokovic, Murray and now Federer. It's no mystery - the better player has been winning these matches and that's NOT Nadal anymore. I don't think it's just matter of age or pulling his punches - he's just not as good as he used to be. Even Roger said at IW that Rafa's footwork was off and he was slow and thought maybe Rafa had an injury. I don't think he did. I just don't think he's as good a player as he used to be. The years of exacting physicality of his game has taken clearly taken a toll.

Definitely Rafa is showing his age. And injuries have taken a huge toll on him. This is natural and I have no complaints about it. But it's also why I mentioned the Monfils match. It was because it was a final that he tightened up in it. He's getting twitchy. He's looping and lopping the balls short. It isn't an issue of surfaces, it's an issue of confidence. He may get it back but until he does, we'll see him play better tennis on the way to finals or big matches, than he plays in these matches...

 

[Busted]

I'm surprised that Roger said he'll take all of clay season off (except Roland Garros). If anything I was wondering if he was thinking, "I'm playing so good, might as well come back and go for Monte Carlo as well as Rome."

But what surprises me is that he typically wants a warm-up tournament for Slams. It is April 2 now and Roland Garros begins in late May - so that would be an almost two month break. Not sure why that is necessary, and Rome seems well timed.

I think that's why Darren Cahill was saying in the ESPN wrap-up that he thought Roger might change his mind and play Madrid or maybe Rome because Rome's court is the one most like RG's courts. P

Also, Roger will play during those 2 months - just doesn't sound like it'll be at any of the clay Masters. IIRC sometime around the end of April Roger has his foundation's annual charity event. He was supposed to play Murray but I'm guessing he'll have to get a replacement Murray may still be injured or not willing to play an XO and risk reinjuring himself because he's got 3,160 points to defend on clay this year including RG. If he doesn't play his points lead will be down to about 1,200 by the time Wimbledon rolls around.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

It was totally worth cancelling my appointment and watching this.

The H2H differential is now in single digits. It is 9 now and has a good chance of decreasing further.
However, I don't expect another Fedal match this year until we get back to the hard courts.

 

[britbox]

good news is that clay is arriving for rafa. and he is still 2nd in race to London rank charts.

He's having a good year if you overlook Federer's rennaissance.

 

[britbox]

what on earth is Annabel Croft saying?? Roger's serve has not been great so far this year... she's saying he's serving better than ever

She loves Fed though... although maybe not as much as Virginia Wade... who is the priestess in some sort of worship cult.

Was Rusedski in the studio? Bet he picked Rafa.

 

[britbox]

So Fed is skipping clay I hear up until Roland Garros.

 

[Busted]

Over the years Federer has done a number of little adjustements that have bothered Rafa, but its rare that he could chain them together consistently enough to get enough points to win. Often improving the serve out wide (which is useful against a lefty) came at the expense of a loss in fh power, so it was a net split at best. He started hitting down the middle more (which Del Potro had used effectively against Nadal) and repeatedly pounding Rafa's backhand (even when the fh was wide open) but always the same matchup problem at the end of the day which Rafa could go to on the big points.

Still, these last three wins you can kinda see that he's basically putting all those little adjustements together in a consistent way as well as his base level being a little higher, and now we see the dividends. The amusing thing is there is a lot of Novak/Nadal point construction in the way he is playing the points. The way he flattens out the backhand on Nadal's loopy cc exchanges is very Novak like. The way he now buys himself time with his own deep loopy high floating forehands (which is one of the big things that no one is talking about) is a page straight from Rafa (and has visibly frustrated Nadal several times).

Tennis is a funny sport. Often in h2hs people go on long streaks with similar matches, at which point someone has time in the offseason to tweak their games a bit, and then there might be a radical flipflop.

Your point about how Roger's using a bit more of Nole's game plan - flattening out his bh, etc. - shows the versatility in Roger's game. He's got every shot in the book and as he said his problem has sometimes been too many options. As long as this is working and Nadal hasn't figured out how to counter it - stay with it. The questions is - if he plays Nole in Monte Carlo and sees the same patterns and balls, does he learn from these last 3 matches against Roger and can he make the adjustments to beat Djokovic? Or does he fall back on his routine the way he always does? If I were a Nadal fan - and I'm not - I wouldn't be too sure he can make himself be aggressive enough in crunch time.

 

[Federberg]

So Fed is skipping clay I hear up until Roland Garros.

Oh wow! Really? That's fantastic news!

 

[JesuslookslikeBorg]

so i heard. needs to rest in order to play his best tennis. makes sense.

 

[Federberg]

She loves Fed though... although maybe not as much as Virginia Wade... who is the priestess in some sort of worship cult.

Was Rusedski in the studio? Bet he picked Rafa.

Yup. Greg was there. Rather annoyingly there was a sound problem in the pre-match discussion until the end of the first game. So I never heard his view

 

[Busted]

From Roger's perspective, he took a long break and he knocked ten years off his age. I hope this isn't a trend we'll see.

For Rafa, I wouldn't see this as crushing. I haven't been watching much tennis, my ol;d lad isn't well, but in general up til the Big Matches, Rafa is actually playing great tennis. He just isn't holding himself together too well once there's something big at stake, and he's been like that since 2014. He gets anxious, he hurries the shots, he blows big chances. Even still, facing FUBAR-Fed, it's been an unlucky time for him, but I think that he could be prone to lapses against anyone, in a big final. Even last year, his only victory of note was in Monte Carlo, and he struggled there in the final to beat Le Monf, which is not really something he used to do.

Put it this way - if he'd faced Monfils in the semis of MC last year, he'd have destroyed him.

I saw this happen with a lot of players as they age, they become tentative, and big finals become too much for them. They weary easier, and physically they drain quicker, through anxiety, etc. The big matches aren't gonna be there forever for them, so they begin to fluff their lines. I'm proud of him so far this season though...

I think the majority of Nadal's problem is simply that he's not a natural all-surface player. Other surfaces have always been a bigger struggle for him.

Ans as far as the ease of his wins before the final? Well, come on, look who he's playing. When it comes to the finals of these big events the last few years he's playing guys who are better form than he is - Djokovic, Murray and now Federer. It's no mystery - the better player has been winning these matches and that's NOT Nadal anymore. I don't think it's just matter of age or pulling his punches - he's just not as good as he used to be. Even Roger said at IW that Rafa's footwork was off and he was slow and thought maybe Rafa had an injury. I don't think he did. I just don't think he's as good a player as he used to be. The years of exacting physicality of his game has taken clearly taken a toll.

Definitely Rafa is showing his age. And injuries have taken a huge toll on him. This is natural and I have no complaints about it. But it's also why I mentioned the Monfils match. It was because it was a final that he tightened up in it. He's getting twitchy. He's looping and lopping the balls short. It isn't an issue of surfaces, it's an issue of confidence. He may get it back but until he does, we'll see him play better tennis on the way to finals or big matches, than he plays in these matches...

Kinda like Roger in his last 3 Slam finals against Nole - especially the 2015 Wimbledon and US Open finals. Wimbledon he killed Murray and barely made any errors. Instead of playing that same steady game and staying in the moment, in the final against Nole he was too erratic and made too many errors because he thought he has to be super aggressive. Sometimes someone who plays steady and stays with him is too much for Nole. Then he gets impatient and overhits himself. As you said - it's a natural evolution that all aging players get to - overthinking and the body and the mind just don't execute as well as when you were younger.

 

[britbox]

Oh wow! Really? That's fantastic news!

I think it shows that #1 is down the list of priorities with Wimbledon firmly at the top.

 

[britbox]

Yup. Greg was there. Rather annoyingly there was a sound problem in the pre-match discussion until the end of the first game. So I never heard his view

Rusedski punditry is a sound problem of it's own.

 

[Federberg]

Rusedski punditry is a sound problem of it's own.

Lol! He can say some interesting stuff sometimes. But funnily enough I think Petchey is the best of the Brits

 

[britbox]

Lol! He can say some interesting stuff sometimes. But funnily enough I think Petchey is the best of the Brits

Not sure whether he's on the Beeb, Sky or Eurosport these days but I got to quite liking Henmans understated analysis.

 

[ftan]

Sorry to hear about your dad Kieran, hold tight and things will get better. I was wondering where you have been as you generally take a sabbatical during slams but are here otherwise.

My tennis app said the match was at 2 pm. I was surprised to see the twitter feed say Roger won, at first I was thinking they are talking about Indian wells..so missed the match duhh. But atleast it saved me some anxiety..anyways it feels good to know that Roger is not psyched out by Rafa anymore and atleast he is not losing the matches before stepping on the court. This year has been such a good year for him so far

 

[Ricardo]

Fed said he'll probably play French open, implying possibly he may not? thought playing Miami is a bit much for him, works out fine but obviously the long break is what got him here having unbelievable season so far. By skipping the clay season, it confirms he is not thinking about top ranking anymore, just not in it to win it.

Perhaps the long break did magic to his body which he didn't tell entirely what he sorted out during that time. Maybe he did play the recent years with injury which prevented him from playing like this, but in any case he is doing the right thing and may prove to be the best post-35 yo player ever.

 

[britbox]

Fed said he'll probably play French open, implying possibly he may not? thought playing Miami is a bit much for him, works out fine but obviously the long break is what got him here having unbelievable season so far. By skipping the clay season, it confirms he is not thinking about top ranking anymore, just not in it to win it.

Perhaps the long break did magic to his body which he didn't tell entirely what he sorted out during that time. Maybe he did play the recent years with injury which prevented him from playing like this, but in any case he is doing the right thing and may prove to be the best post-35 yo player ever.

Fed said after Melbourne that it was the first time he'd been 100% since going into the AO the year before, so looks like he did the full rehab. I think the break probably did wonders for his head as well - renewed ambition, vigour and resolve. There's a look in his eyes that I haven't really seen for a long time. He's in full assassin mode right now.

I thought he'd play one Masters at least - Rome, and maybe MC if he was going to do two, but it's a smart move really to skip. I'm pretty sure he'll play Roland Garros unless he's less than 100%. Wimbledon is the main focus.

Schedule up until the USO:

RG, Halle, Wimbledon, Montreal, Cincy, USO.

He's probably qualified for the End of Year Masters already.

 

[Moxie]

I think it shows that #1 is down the list of priorities with Wimbledon firmly at the top.

That would be wise. I doubt his consecutive weeks at #1 will be in jeopardy for a long time. Commentators on ESPN were debating whether he'd play a tune-up in Madrid or Rome. If you don't play a tune-up, why play the big one? Djokovic has won Wimbledon without one, but grass is its own thing. And that's when he was dominating.

 

[britbox]

That would be wise. I doubt his consecutive weeks at #1 will be in jeopardy for a long time. Commentators on ESPN were debating whether he'd play a tune-up in Madrid or Rome. If you don't play a tune-up, why play the big one? Djokovic has won Wimbledon without one, but grass is its own thing. And that's when he was dominating.

He'll probably go in with the mindset that he'll have a good seeding and the first week will be the tuneup - a bit risky depending on his draw but he could play himself into the tournament. Last year, we gave him a minimal chance of doing much at RG anyway... I'd give him better chances this year but it's still a long shot. I think he knows it... but consider this scenario (myself and a couple of Feddies chewed it over)....

IF Federer won Wimbledon - and that's not a given either - (but he's got to be one of the main favourites), with the AO in the bag already... he'd be going into the USO with a shot at a third slam. If by chance he won it, then he'd be killing himself for not at least having had a go at the French for the Holy Grail.

^ Not that I think the above is likely by any means, but he's got to at least have a go in Paris.