Fed Fans – Roger Federer Talk

[Moxie]

Sounds like Federer will come back to clay at Madrid. Good call, IMO.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Sounds like Federer will come back to clay at Madrid. Good call, IMO.

It is a good choice if he does not plan to play RG. On the other hand, if he is planning to play RG (most likely scenario) Madrid is the worst tourney as a preparation (especially considering he will be playing just one or two clay tourneys before RG) for RG due to altitude, speed etc.

Actually, my recommendation for Fed is to skip Miami, Play in both MC and Rome. But, skip RG. No need to indulge in the five set grinders on the dirt. MC and Rome are good as there is always the possibility of grabbing new hardware that he does not have (and also helping him not accumulate rust due to excessive sitting on the couch during clay season).

 

[Moxie]

It is a good choice if he does not plan to play RG. On the other hand, if he is planning to play RG (most likely scenario) Madrid is the worst tourney as a preparation (especially considering he will be playing just one or two clay tourneys before RG) for RG due to altitude, speed etc.

Actually, my recommendation for Fed is to skip Miami, Play in both MC and Rome. But, skip RG. No need to indulge in the five set grinders on the dirt. MC and Rome are good as there is always the possibility of grabbing new hardware that he does not have (and also helping him not accumulate rust due to excessive sitting on the couch during clay season).

I get why you say this, but I doubt it lines up with what Roger is planning. As you say, in all likelihood, he's playing the clay season to play RG. He's too much of a champion to play a couple of MS 1000s and skip the main event. I'm sure he's in for a penny and the whole pound, too. Given that, I think Madrid is wise. Even though it's not great prep for RG, it's a place where he has a better chance of doing well. MC has never gone well for him, and he's likely going to hit the hard competition. I don't know if anyone has said whether he'll play Rome or not. But he can do well in Madrid and feel confident, which, for Roger, is key. Important for everyone, but Roger doesn't need the prep, he just needs to feel good.

 

[Front242]

Djokovic and Nadal are playing at Madrid too so there will be plenty of hard competition there.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

I get why you say this, but I doubt it lines up with what Roger is planning. As you say, in all likelihood, he's playing the clay season to play RG. He's too much of a champion to play a couple of MS 1000s and skip the main event. I'm sure he's in for a penny and the whole pound, too. Given that, I think Madrid is wise. Even though it's not great prep for RG, it's a place where he has a better chance of doing well. MC has never gone well for him, and he's likely going to hit the hard competition. I don't know if anyone has said whether he'll play Rome or not. But he can do well in Madrid and feel confident, which, for Roger, is key. Important for everyone, but Roger doesn't need the prep, he just needs to feel good.

Roger is a four time finalist (that I can remember off the hat) in MC. He lost to a beast in 2006-08 and then he lost to a man in 2014.
I regret that 2014 loss very much as it was a great opportunity to clinch that hardware.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Looks like Barcelona does not have million bucks to pony up to bring in FedEx.

 

[Front242]

Roger is a four time finalist (that I can remember off the hat) in MC. He lost to a beast in 2006-08 and then he lost to a man in 2014.
I regret that 2014 loss very much as it was a great opportunity to clinch that hardware.

Roger really messed up that MC 2008 final. He was up 5-3 in set 1 and lost it 7-5 and up 4-0 (!) in set 2 and again lost it 7-5. One of his most pathetic losses and winning it would have done wonders for his confidence before RG.

 

[isabelle]

according to l'Equipe, he'll play both Madrid and RG

 

[The_Grand_Slam]

https://sport360.com/video/tennis/3...s-hes-not-planning-his-farewell-tour-just-yet

No plans for farewell tour yet.

Many more years remaining hopefully.

 

[El Dude]

The only reason to play clay Masters but not RG is if he's going after #1, which I don't think is the case. Not only is it not as much of a priority to him, but his chances of getting to #1 are probably less than winning #21.

So yeah, if he's playing clay then he's playing RG. And I think he's playing RG as a farewell tour, but also on the off chance that the Red Sea is parted and he ends up facing Thiem in the semifinal and Zverev in the final. I'm not saying he'd beat either on clay, but he certainly would have a better chance than against Novak and Rafa.

 

[tented]

So yeah, if he's playing clay then he's playing RG. And I think he's playing RG as a farewell tour, but also on the off chance that the Red Sea is parted and he ends up facing Thiem in the semifinal and Zverev in the final. I'm not saying he'd beat either on clay, but he certainly would have a better chance than against Novak and Rafa.

Yep, that’s what I posted a day or two ago. You just never know how the draw will unfold. Things could open up, and give Roger a straightforward route to the SF, if not final. I think he still has it in him to win the first few rounds pretty easily, and from there, who knows, especially if Rafa and/or Novak aren’t around.

Roger’s the consummate champion. If he goes to a tournament, it’s because he thinks he can win. If the draw opens up in Paris, you can bet he’ll go for it. What else would (not should) he do?

 

[Andy22]

I think federer can beat Zverev, Djokovic in this clay court season but not Nadal or even thiem will see, Madrid/RG sounds about right too me.

 

[tented]

I was reviewing Roger's titles/finals page on the ATP site, and was reminded of his early results, from 2000-2006. Note in particular that in 2004 he went 11-0 in finals!

Titlist:

2006 = 12
Tennis Masters Cup (Indoor/Hard)
Basel (Indoor/Carpet)
ATP Masters Series Madrid (Indoor/Hard)
Tokyo (Outdoor/Hard)
US Open (Outdoor/Hard)
ATP Masters Series Canada (Outdoor/Hard)
Wimbledon (Outdoor/Grass)
Halle (Outdoor/Grass)
ATP Masters Series Miami (Outdoor/Hard)
ATP Masters Series Indian Wells (Outdoor/Hard)
Australian Open (Outdoor/Hard)
Doha (Outdoor/Hard)

2005 = 11
Bangkok (Indoor/Hard)
US Open (Outdoor/Hard)
ATP Masters Series Cincinnati (Outdoor/Hard)
Wimbledon (Outdoor/Grass)
Halle (Outdoor/Grass)
ATP Masters Series Hamburg (Outdoor/Clay)
ATP Masters Series Miami (Outdoor/Hard)
ATP Masters Series Indian Wells (Outdoor/Hard)
Dubai (Outdoor/Hard)
Rotterdam (Indoor/Hard)
Doha (Outdoor/Hard)

2004 = 11
Tennis Masters Cup (Outdoor/Hard)
Bangkok (Indoor/Hard)
US Open (Outdoor/Hard)
ATP Masters Series Canada (Outdoor/Hard)
Gstaad (Outdoor/Clay)
Wimbledon (Outdoor/Grass)
Halle (Outdoor/Grass)
ATP Masters Series Hamburg (Outdoor/Clay)
ATP Masters Series Indian Wells (Outdoor/Hard)
Dubai (Outdoor/Hard)
Australian Open (Outdoor/Hard)

2003 = 7
Tennis Masters Cup (Outdoor/Hard)
Vienna (Indoor/Hard)
Wimbledon (Outdoor/Grass)
Halle (Outdoor/Grass)
Munich (Outdoor/Clay)
Dubai (Outdoor/Hard)
Marseilles (Indoor/Hard)

2002 = 3
Vienna (Indoor/Hard)
ATP Masters Series Hamburg (Outdoor/Clay)
Sydney (Outdoor/Hard)

2001 = 1
Milan (Indoor/Carpet)

*****

Finalist:

2006 = 4
Roland Garros (Outdoor/Clay)
ATP Masters Series Rome (Outdoor/Clay)
ATP Masters Series Monte Carlo (Outdoor/Clay)
Dubai (Outdoor/Hard)

2005 = 1
Tennis Masters Cup (Indoor/Carpet)

2003 = 2
Gstaad (Outdoor/Clay)
ATP Masters Series Rome (Outdoor/Clay)

2002 = 2
ATP Masters Series Miami (Outdoor/Hard)
Milan (Indoor/Carpet)

2001 = 2
Basel (Indoor/Carpet)
Rotterdam (Indoor/Hard)

2000 = 2
Basel (Indoor/Carpet)
Marseilles (Indoor/Hard)

 

[mrzz]

It is a good choice if he does not plan to play RG. On the other hand, if he is planning to play RG (most likely scenario) Madrid is the worst tourney as a preparation (especially considering he will be playing just one or two clay tourneys before RG) for RG due to altitude, speed etc.

Actually, my recommendation for Fed is to skip Miami, Play in both MC and Rome. But, skip RG. No need to indulge in the five set grinders on the dirt. MC and Rome are good as there is always the possibility of grabbing new hardware that he does not have (and also helping him not accumulate rust due to excessive sitting on the couch during clay season).

There is one factor in favor of Madrid as a preparation for RG. Its center court is extremely wide, much like Chartrier. Neither MC nor Rome come even close in that regard.

 

[Federberg]

 

[GameSetAndMath]

I think the course of action is likely to be as follows.

1. After testing the waters in Madrid, if it does not feel good to play on clay, Roger would call of the clay season.
2. If things feel good in general, but he loses early (QF or before), he would also play in Rome before playing in RG.
3. The difficult situation (in terms of decision making) would be what to do if everything feels fine and he goes
deep in Madrid. In that case, of course he will play in RG. The decision making problem would be whether
to play in Rome or not. On the one hand it would contribute to accumulated fatigue and on the other hand
it might prepare him well for RG.

Roger's contract with Stuttgart expired last year. So, I expect him to skip that this year (also he managed to
win that title finally) with the goal of reducing accumulated fatigue due to also playing on clay this year.
He will play only in Halle this year as a warm up to Wimby.

 

[El Dude]

^In other words, he's telling us, "Stop reading so much into this. I just want to play clay."

 

[Horsa]

^In other words, he's telling us, "Stop reading so much into this. I just want to play clay."

Or maybe, "You all think I'm predictable but I'm not & I'll do what I want to do not what everyone else wants me to."

 

[El Dude]

One thing to consider about this so-called "Farewell Tour Theory" is that almost every great player doesn't retire until it is clear that they cannot perform at an elite level. Most elite players continue playing as long as they are elite. The only player I can think of that retired will still in prime, Slam-competing form was Bjorn Borg.

We can look at Pete Sampras as a best-case scenario of going out in a bang, but even he had been struggling to stay in the top 10 for a couple years; in other words, the writing was on the wall and he saw it.

Roger has struggled this last year or so, but won a Slam only 14 months ago and is still a top 5 player, probably still better than anyone on tour other than Novak and Rafa. Right now isn't all that different from 2014-15, and you'd think Roger has that in mind: that he could find that high level we saw in 2017. We see it in glimpses now.

Ultimately he knows his game better than any of us, and while he wouldn't be the first player to be in denial, I think the bottom line is that as long as he enjoys getting out on court, he's going to continue to do so, and I think that enjoyment is largely determined by how competitive he feels he can be. Rankings aren't everything, but until we see Roger inhabiting even just the lower part of the top 10 more consistently, I don't think we'll see him go anywhere.

 

[Federberg]

a couple of things gleaned from the tennis podcast. Roger has never won a tournament with that stubbly look. I didn't notice that he shaved for the final. So maybe the old man is getting a bit superstitious in his dotage. Also he's already committed to playing Dubai next year, so that's good news