Early Roland Garros thread

[lob]

Djoker breaks himself. Has to be said these points are more on his terms but Rafa can play defense all day on this stuff if you're not able to put the points away.

I agree with you that the 3rd set, so far, has been on Djokovic's racket. But Nadal's defense has been impressive.

 

[Moxie]

He had more than just those 5 matches.
He got into the top 10 as well, a SF in a slam alone is not enough to get there.

He was saying a "beast" on clay. I looked him up. Only one of his 6 titles is on clay (Nice) + SF at RG. I'm not sure how this makes him a beast on clay. I thought it was kind of a fluke that he made that one SF at RG.

 

[Front242]

I do not remember this period in time. A SF in RG I remember. That seemed like a short freakish period when he held his head together for 5 matches.

He made a monkey out of Federer in Rome 2010 and Nadal at Rome 2013. Ultimately lost both but hammered them in both sets he won and unlucky to lose both matches tbh.

 

[Moxie]

He made a monkey out of Federer in Rome 2010 and Nadal at Rome 2013. Ultimately lost both but hammered them in both sets he won and unlucky to lose both matches tbh.

Flash in the pan. Should have known you'd remember a Nadal loss, though. Even I don't remember either of those matches.

 

[Moxie]

Everyone agreed that the big pressure was on Nadal to win today. Having done that, the pressure shifts onto Novak at RG. He's got the Nole Slam Redux at stake, and he'll want it badly. He's made no secret of his ambitions, and the bonus points will help his case for GOAT, should he get to 19 or 20 Majors and Roger gets no more. He will know he's unlikely to get a chance at the Nole Slam again. And his take away from this tournament, and really all of the season since AO, is that he still needs to find his best tennis. Nadal, on the other hand, got just what he most needed today...a big win over Djokovic going into RG.

 

[MartyB]

Very important & impressive victory for Nadal today. As long as Djokovic does not win at RG I'm good. Cant wait for the draw especially the quarters and where those dangerous floaters fall.

 

[MartyB]

Everyone agreed that the big pressure was on Nadal to win today. Having done that, the pressure shifts onto Novak at RG. He's got the Nole Slam Redux at stake, and he'll want it badly. He's made no secret of his ambitions, and the bonus points will help his case for GOAT, should he get to 19 or 20 Majors and Roger gets no more. He will no he's unlikely to get a chance at the Nole Slam again. And his take away from this tournament, and really all of the season since AO, is that he still needs to find his best tennis. Nadal, on the other hand, got just what he most needed today...a big win over Djokovic going into RG.

Glad you put it out there exactly why I posted that I want anyone to win RG as long as it's not Djokovic.

 

[Moxie]

Glad you put it out there exactly why I posted that I want anyone to win RG as long as it's not Djokovic.

For me it's Djokovic or Federer, on the outside chance that he would. Though my first choice is still Nadal, of course.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Everyone agreed that the big pressure was on Nadal to win today. Having done that, the pressure shifts onto Novak at RG. He's got the Nole Slam Redux at stake, and he'll want it badly. He's made no secret of his ambitions, and the bonus points will help his case for GOAT, should he get to 19 or 20 Majors and Roger gets no more. He will no he's unlikely to get a chance at the Nole Slam again. And his take away from this tournament, and really all of the season since AO, is that he still needs to find his best tennis. Nadal, on the other hand, got just what he most needed today...a big win over Djokovic going into RG.

1. Ya sure, Ralph exorcised multiple demons with his victory today. He terminated Novak's lease (don't they have to give some notice for that) and also will not be going to RG without a clay title.
2. I would give one extra GS for a calendar slam and a 0.5 GS for a non-calendar slam. If Novak wins RG, I am ok with his GS count being increased by 1 for comparison purposes (2 Nole slams = 1 extra slam).
3. Ideal situation would be if anyone other than Nadalovic wins RG though.

 

[Moxie]

1. Ya sure, Ralph exorcised multiple demons with his victory today. He terminated Novak's lease (don't they have to give some notice for that)
and also will not be going to RG without a clay title.
2. I would give one extra GS for a calendar slam and a 0.5 GS for a non-calendar slam. If Novak wins RG, I am ok with his GS count being increased by 1 for comparison purposes (2 Nole slams = 1 extra slam).
3. Ideal situation would be if anyone other than Nadalovic wins RG though.

It seems funny to try to assess an absolute value to these achievements in equivalencies to winning actual Slams, but you're a math guy, so I'm sure you like a formula. I'm saying that the Nole Slam will weigh, though, when discussing their careers overall.

A second one would also give him the double-career Slam, it should be remembered. He'll want this one badly, but he'll also know the chances of ever getting a 2nd RG don't get better, only worse. The chances of anyone other than "Nadalovic" winning this one are pretty poor (I'm sure the new betting odds are coming,) but the NextGenners + others are nipping at the heels much more aggressively, and the youngsters will only become more of an option in the coming couple of years.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

OK. I think about six hours have elapsed since the end of the match. Let us take a look at the current odds.

1. Ralph 11/10 (47.62%)
2. Novak 28/11 (28.21%)
3. Thiem 6 (14.29%)

4. Perseus 20 (4.76%)
5. Federer 22 (4.35%)

6. Sasha 33 (2.94%)
7. Fog / Man 66 (1.49%)
9. Medvedev 75 (1.32%)
10. JMDP 80 (1.23%)
11. Monfils / Coric 100 (1%)

Not much change in the general picture. We have three contenders, two pretenders and seven honorable mentions as before.
The main change is that Ralph's chances went up big from 34% to 47%. Novak's chances decreased bit from 30% to 28%.
Thiem also went down from 18% to 14%. Previously Roger and Perseus were tied. Now, Perseus has passed over Fed.
Samurai exits and Coric enters at the bottom of the totem pole.

The only consoling factor is that the Field still has higher chances than Ralph (that may change in a day when the market
has more time to digest today's happenings).

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Here is the ideal draw for Ralph at RG (I have double checked that this is possible as per the seedings).

1R --- Nick Kyrgios
2R --- Christian Garin
3R --- Stan Wawrinka
4R --- Medvedev (too bad that Fog is not possible here due to him being seeded high).
QF --- Tsitsipas
SF ---- Thiem
F ---- Novak

 

[Fiero425]

Here is the ideal draw for Ralph at RG (I have double checked that this is possible as per the seedings).

1R --- Nick Kyrgios
2R --- Christian Garin
3R --- Stan Wawrinka
4R --- Medvedev (too bad that Fog is not possible here due to him being seeded high).
QF --- Tsitsipas
SF ---- Thiem
F ---- Novak

Brutal! Even Nadal would have a problem surviving all that! He's no spring chicken! :whistle: B-)

 

[Moxie]

Here is the ideal draw for Ralph at RG (I have double checked that this is possible as per the seedings).

1R --- Nick Kyrgios
2R --- Christian Garin
3R --- Stan Wawrinka
4R --- Medvedev (too bad that Fog is not possible here due to him being seeded high).
QF --- Tsitsipas
SF ---- Thiem
F ---- Novak

It's astonishing what a hobby you make of gaming how Rafa can get beat. But it brings you joy, I see that...you sour old snake. :devilfinger:

 

[Moxie]

OK. I think about six hours have elapsed since the end of the match. Let us take a look at the current odds.

1. Ralph 11/10 (47.62%)
2. Novak 28/11 (28.21%)
3. Thiem 6 (14.29%)

4. Perseus 20 (4.76%)
5. Federer 22 (4.35%)

6. Sasha 33 (2.94%)
7. Fog / Man 66 (1.49%)
9. Medvedev 75 (1.32%)
10. JMDP 80 (1.23%)
11. Monfils / Coric 100 (1%)

Not much change in the general picture. We have three contenders, two pretenders and seven honorable mentions as before.
The main change is that Ralph's chances went up big from 34% to 47%. Novak's chances decreased bit from 30% to 28%.
Thiem also went down from 18% to 14%. Previously Roger and Perseus were tied. Now, Perseus has passed over Fed.
Samurai exits and Coric enters at the bottom of the totem pole.

The only consoling factor is that the Field still has higher chances than Ralph (that may change in a day when the market
has more time to digest today's happenings).

I'm not sure how you console yourself with the "field" having greater than 50% chance. "The field" is not one player. Is this vastly different than the past 14 years? I imagine there were surely years when Rafa had a really high % chance to win. But not all of them.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

I'm not sure how you console yourself with the "field" having greater than 50% chance. "The field" is not one player. Is this vastly different than the past 14 years? I imagine there were surely years when Rafa had a really high % chance to win. But not all of them.

I believe except for one or two years (when he was really awful), he always had higher chances than the field (and rightfully so). That is why the odds are still interesting.

 

[Moxie]

I believe except for one or two years (when he was really awful), he always had higher chances than the field (and rightfully so). That is why the odds are still interesting.

Well, you're the odds guy...can't you look it up?

 

[don_fabio]

If there was any doubts about Rafas game on clay this year he cleared all doubts yesterday.

I am really impressed by his performance in Rome. Someone mentioned how he bageled almost every single opponent and that really is insane. When he comes to this surface and raises his game, he literally plays like he is possessed. During the clay season he should play with diablo logo instead of a bull, cause that's what he looks to me on this surface. I mean nothing bad, just pure admiration for what he does.

 

[JesuslookslikeBorg]

dustin dreddy brown bt denis istomin (2nd seed) in q1 of french open.

 

[JesuslookslikeBorg]

with big kev out,, del potro is 8th seed ,

after his surprisingly high level in rome, and with a 2hbh back in his toolkit, he could be in for a few wins.